3 months ago
JKWard
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Couldn't you just add the stolen bases
To the singles component of the equation and not add any ABs?
That would be one way.
I’d probably make steals worth a fraction of a hit, though. 7/10ths or 4/5ths, something like that, but that might be my inherent bias towards stolen bases not being as valuable as base hits.
More to the point, I think a single and a stolen base doesn’t equate to a double, etc.
I dunno. I just thought it would be an interesting statistic to see. I’ve been kind of tooling around with it, but I wasn’t sure if someone had already put it together somewhere.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
The one I've been using right now for S's and G's is
aSLG = AB/(TB+(SB x 0.8)-CS)
We should trade for Vance Worley.
A single and a stolen bases is equal to a double
If there are two outs. at least to me. Otherwise though I can understand the viewpoint that a double has the potential to score runners from first to third, while a stolen base rarely has the potential to score anyone.
This article doesn’t have an equation, but it’s not a bad read.
by BeauJackson on Feb 22, 2012 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks. That's pretty much where I got to on it, although I weighted SBs differently
We should trade for Vance Worley.
And yeah, although a single and a stolen base equates to a guy standing on second base like a double
They really aren’t the same. I can see both sides of it, though.
And much like everything in baseball, it has to be given context to be completely accurate. A single and a stolen base equates to equal value to a double in most contexts, I think. Only with runners on base does it make a difference, and only then if there is a chance of that runner scoring. So although the value, to me, of a single and a stolen base (1.9 bases) it isn’t much lower than a double (2.0 bases).
We should trade for Vance Worley.
FWIW, wOBA includes SB’s.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 22, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
I believe the more updated, commonly used versions of wOBA include SB and CS. The wOBA shown on Fangraphs includes SB and CS.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 22, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
Look at these two 2012 individual ZiPS projections (from Fangraphs)
G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA
148 625 174 23 3 6 81 43 36 69 1 35 8 .278 .317 .354 .671 .298 Player A
156 583 159 37 4 17 70 77 32 111 8 13 6 .273 .314 .437 .751 .323 Player B
Neither player is projected to set the world on fire, but one thing speed don’t do is trump power if you aren’t getting on base enough.
Player A is Ichiro. Player B is Frenchy.
Okay?
So 22 more stolen bases (22 total bases) is not as good as 11 more homeruns (44 total bases) and more doubles?
Yeah. I’d agree with that.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
And it must be brutal as an M's fan to see how much Ichiro has declined
But being on the other side of the Grass Creek rivalry, I’m not allowed to empathize.
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