Hypothetical Thursday 6
Alcides Escobar continues his reign as Shortstop Jesus in 2012. However, his defense isn't quite as good as it was last year. In addition, his hitting declines to .230/.280/.320. What do the Royals do with him and with the SS position? Is it time to panic?
3 months ago
Yodazilla
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Define "panic."
If, by that, you mean all Yu-Bet, all the time, the answer is and will always be, “no.”
I have a hard time imagining how this team replaces Hercules. Colon doesn’t look like the answer, and the market for decent shortstops is always pretty thin…
Panic
would be to look for another long term option for SS whilst playing Yuni more.
I bring this thing up because this situation is a very real possibility. If Escobar declines just a little with his glove in addition to declines in offense, the Royals have a very real problem on their hands. You don’t want to trot out a 1-1.5 WAR player at a key position long term. But the Royals seem to have no alternative.
In that case, you certainly don’t play Yuni more. Because even with worse hitting and worse defense, as a 1-1.5 WAR player, he’s still better than Yuni who is slightly better than replacement level at best (say maybe 0.2 WAR).
And maybe you start thinking about another long-term option, but before actually making an acquisition, I think you give him 2013 to see how he performs then.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 23, 2012 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And by...
…2013, you mean all of the year. The position is just that valuable.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
I think that's how the Royals look at it as well
In 2012, the alternatives are either not palatable or not ready. I also think he’s entrenched in 2013 unless he’s truly in TPJ territory and the team is truly in contention at midseason. At that point Escobar might mysteriously develop an injury that requires a long rehab assignment. If they replaced him, I think it would be a rental via trade and not Colon.
Dayton and Ned seem fine with an excellent defensive shortstop with poor offensive skills, so I think he has a very long leash. Unfortunately, they also saw fit to back him up with a poor defensive SS who is not much better than Escobar offensively.
I don't think you are correctly evaluating Yuni.
I’m not a fan, but his fWAR has fluctuated all over the place: 0.5, 1.7, 1.5, 0.4, -2.1, 0.9, 0.5. I can’t reconcile those numbers with calling him a 0.2 WAR player. Especially since I don’t think he is steady enough to be counted on for anything.
He has a greater power ceiling than Yuni by a pretty substantial margin. Then again, the other (more consistent) factors that each bring to the table are: bad patience vs. bad patience and awful defense vs. great defense. Both players can fall through the floor with offensive production, but only one saves it with his glove.
Evaluating Yuni’s WAR: A weighted average of his last 3 seasons fWAR = -.02. Then if you apply the aging curve, it would go down a little. So I’m actually giving him the benefit of the doubt by concluding that he’s slightly above replacement.
Both players can fall through the floor with offensive production, but only one saves it with his glove.
Exactly, and that is why Escobar should continue to play even if he’s struggling at the plate. Because even if he’s struggling, he’s better than Yuni overall.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 23, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
That -2.1 season represents a pretty huge outlier.
Then again, it probably isn’t worth debating how close to average I think Yuni can be since my thesis throughout these posts has been:
1) Alcides should always be playing ahead of Yuni for his consistent glove
2) A .600 OPS is not panic time. He hit .505 through 2 months last year and managed to find a .633 ending. Panic time? Ha. We learned this lesson 10 months ago.
Alcides is the only game in town right now.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Feb 23, 2012 9:09 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Shouldn’t someone who is referred to shortstop Jesus project to be better than a league average player? I don’t think it would even be fair to call Escobar a good Major League player. I think he’s a great defender, who is an awful hitter and a pretty good base runner. The whole package is pretty average.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
We're into semantics here
But ‘Shortstop Jesus’ just means a good glove. Not necessarily a good player, but a good glove. Is 2.2 WAR ‘good’?
Approximately 2 WAR is average. So 2.2 WAR is a tic above average.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 23, 2012 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
He's an awful hitter at time.
I don’t think he’s an awful hitter in general. Certainly streaky, but not awful most of the time.
Wouldn’t you consider his overall numbers in the majors to be awful (including 2011)?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 23, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I think one of my projects for 2012 is going to be creating a unified, universal conversion table from adjectives to stats and vice versa.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 23, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Not a bad expenditure of energy
He had a 73 wRC+ in 2011 and a 63 wRC+ in 2010. Bad is 70-85. Awful is 55-69. Anything under 55 is “take him out back and shoot him” territory.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
I would think there would have to be a “very bad” category between “bad” and “awful”. Anyway, a 73 wRC+ is pretty…something. I was going to say terrible, but I’m not sure what statistical group that’s in. Alcides’s 73 wRC+ was the 7th worst in MLB among the 145 qualified players. There were only two below 70. 73 has to be very bad at best.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 23, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
If you post shit like this,
Jin Wong will read it and then Yuni will play SS. How dare you…
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 23, 2012 9:51 AM EST reply actions
I think you play Alcides as long as his BA stays north of the Mendoza line
We really don’t have any better alternatives anywhere.
2-3 months before you give Yuni a few weeks
In 2011, Alcides had a very up and down year. I expect more of the same and will give him a longer rope than Gio or Cain. But his probable* ceiling isn’t that high, so I don’t think we should put up with TPJ like numbers for the entire year. But he is probably our best option for the near future, so we should be patient with him.
*I personally believe that Alcides could actually be a 5-6 WAR, but when I take off the rose-colored glasses, he probably can’t be much more than a 4 WAR player.
In order to hit 4 WAR, he’d have to turn into the SS equivalent of Elvis Andrus (2011). A nearly league average hitter with a good deal of SB’s, very good non-SB base running, very good defense and no injuries. In my personal opinion, I think that’s higher than Escobar’s reasonable ceiling. When he was a prospect, sure I think that kind of ceiling was still open to him. But after 2+ seasons of major league data, we know more about him as a major leaguer, and I think his ceiling is down to 3 WAR with his likely projection through his cost controlled years to be in the 1.7-2.5 WAR range.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 23, 2012 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
During his hot month last year (was it June?)
He was probably playing at about a 4 WAR level. I think that month is his realistic or “probable ceiling”.
Realistic ceiling is a complete oxymoron, though – so, to put it in a more concrete/mathematical way, I think he’s a 2 WAR player with a standard deviation of 1 WAR, so about 70% of the time, he’ll play between 1 and 3 WAR, and about 95% of the time, he’ll play between 0 and 4 WAR. And I hold out hope that he can somehow combine the average of June and the power numbers of August/September with his defense and baserunning to become a 5-6 WAR player.
He was a top 20 prospect for a few years right?
This will be his 3rd full season in the bigs, right? I mean this kid can pick it, so I am not worried about the defense. He did have an up and down year, but it seemed like he had a pretty long run of hitting at least .260, didn’t he? He will be just fine!
by royal_in_cincinnati on Feb 23, 2012 10:47 AM EST reply actions
There is almost no scenario where he doesn't play the entire year
Barring injury, of course, or a batting average around .200. There really is no way to definitely state that his defense has declined except through a full year of playing time, from either a scouting or a stats perspective. So Escobar will get the benefit of excellent defensive reputation within the game for at least the entirety of this year, and probably longer, even if his defense does decline. Unless he shows up to camp at 250 lb and sporting a new chin.
The more likely, and scarier, hypothetical — what if he blows out an ACL?
"Put that in your pipe and smoke it."
by Hal McRae's Telephone on Feb 23, 2012 11:13 AM EST reply actions
If he blows out his ACL
It’s certainly scarier. But not as interesting hypothetically—the Royals either go with Yuni or acquire someone else for the year. Or rush Colon if he starts in AAA.
If Escobar ends up being a bad starting SS…then what? Keep him? Move him to utility? Sign a FA or trade for another prospect? The Royals see Escobar as their long-term SS. If he isn’t, then the Royals have problems.
I doubt there's an "either" in this situation.
It’d be “go with Yuni”
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
They've already made their move.
They went out and got Yuni…again.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
He continues to play.
And I continue to wonder how one gets to be a MLB player and be such an awful hitter.
Injury to AE is the real concern
Like his defense, I think his durability is excellent. Giving him some off days to re-charge hiS batteries is onYost
You keep him and draft a SS this year like Dierk or someone
Then you have him in 2 years if that happens, if not, you have a surplus and trade bait.
.230/.280/.320.
Ewwww. That glove is so so good though
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 23, 2012 12:32 PM EST reply actions
How will we ever handle the drop off to a .600 OPS...
from a .633 OPS???. Oh right, I will simply remember the 2 months of last year wherein his OPS was slightly above .500.
Have we seriously forgotten last year entirely? Seriously.
April: .221/.248/.260 = .507
May: .209/.258/.244 = .502
Just for kicks, Yuni hit .220/.250/.324 during that span. For those keeping score, both are worse than the hypothetical disaster.
Seriously?
How will we ever handle the drop off to a .600 OPS… from a .633 OPS???.
Because there’s defense as well. And Escobar is a great defensive shortstop and Yuni is a horrible defensive shortstop. So how would we ever handle the drop off from a roughly average MLB player to a truly awful one?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 23, 2012 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think you're reading my message correctly.
Considering I simultaneously posted the same facts to one of your posts above.
My argument is: the hypo above wants to know what we would do if Alcides was hitting for a .600 OPS (as opposed to .633 from last year’s end total). I think the answer is incredibly easy considering Escobar’s first 2 months last year were substantially worse than .600.
BLASPHEMY!!!
We have ways of making you disappear.
Whatever solution we could conjure would be inadequate
The Royals really just don’t have enough depth at that position. They could trade for someone, but to get anything better or equal would cost either valuable prospects or money, neither of which we should give up so willingly. Signing some tapped out free agent is a zero-sum venture I think.
Escobar regressing should be a concern, but I don’t think it is likely to happen. He was better last year than the year before, despite transferring to a more difficult league. Most projections have him as slightly better this year.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
Before reading other answers
I simply don’t think Alcides (Hercules’s birth name) is going to hit much worse than .240/.290/.350 if he’s given a chance. He’s proven he can do that. He’s not a slap-hitter like Getz: he had like 24 2B and 8 3B last year. That shows he can drive the ball.
And he’s a future Gold Glove defender at the toughest position, and can probably steal 25-30 bases at 70-80%.
I say we do not bail on him, even if he hits poorly in 2012. We want him ready for 2013, when he becomes Ozzie Smith.
I love Alcides’s sidearm throws from the hole gunning down a speedy right fielder, and his flawless exchanges on double plays, and his relay throws to the plate, and his vacuuming up any grounder in his direction.
As for his bat, I’ll take .250/.300/.350, which he can do.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
by Juancho on Feb 23, 2012 3:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
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