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The Other Side of the Argument on Salvador Perez

OK, I'll say it:

It was 158 PAs. He was great, but it was 158 PAs. How would be reacting if, say, the White Sox made this deal?

I'm not against the Salvador Perez contract, don't get me wrong. The money totals are so low and the Royals have so much leverage and flexibility with those three final years of team options that it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which this is a bad contract. Moreover, Perez was essentially already under a six year contract. As Jeff pointed out today, the Royals more or less set the terms for his arb years super early here and tacked on some option years.

Star-divide

The only worst case scenario here, the only way the Royals do lose a little bit in this deal is if Perez isn't ready to be a Major Leaguer in 2012. For all the talk about flexibility, the Royals lose their ability -- in practice if not in the legal letter of the contract -- to demote Perez over the next few years and further delay his free agency. Perhaps it is immaterial. Should that happen, he's suddenly become a very expensive minor league catcher, one who is already on an accelerating pay scale with a defined end in sight.

Perez is likely to be the Royals' primary catcher for the foreseeable future. That was true on Sunday and that is true today.

In 158 PAs Perez hit .331/.361/.473. Earlier in the year, in 309 PAs in AA, he hit .283/.329/.427. At Omaha, where Perez played for just 12 games (49 PAs) he hit .333/.347/.500. There's been quite a lot of discussion about Perez's offensive game, but I'm hesitant know what to do with those comparisons. Is Perez a star in waiting or a nice everyday player or still a total unknown?

Of course, it is well established that he is luminously present.

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So negative and cynical

look at the facts

Don't you ever play GM- Lee "Touch of Gray" Judge

by tiquanunderwear on Feb 28, 2012 9:54 PM EST reply actions  

I don't see how they lose their flexibility to send him to the minors

Just because you sign a contract extension doesn’t mean you can’t be shipped to the minors. In fact, I’d argue this makes it more likely he can be sent down, because even after he burns through his options, if he sucks, he can be DFAed and pass through waivers because no team will want to take on that financial commitment for a crappy player.

I think there is a downside argument here. The contract will be a stinker if Perez just isn’t cut out for MLB. That’s about the only way it can be a stinker (unless he blows out an ACL), but that is a very real possibility. Perez has kind of come out of nowhere. Just two years ago he was putting up decidedly mediocre to poor numbers in low A ball. Granted he was young and its a pitchers’ league, but the guy hasn’t exactly put up the kind of hitting numbers that make you certain as to to future success.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 28, 2012 9:57 PM EST reply actions  

If the Royals are willing to throw $2 million to see Yuni flail around another year, I'm happy with them buying what appears to be a pretty sure $7 million dollar lottery ticket.

MAJOR LEAGUE (The Royals)
Rachel Phelps (Royals Management): I think he'll fit right in with our team concept.
Charlie Donovan (Royals Fans): That reminds me, I was going to ask you. What exactly *is* our team concept?

by Royals Medic on Feb 28, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I just always go back to the Seitzer quote from 2011 Spring Training

Gushing about how he is so coach-able and has the body control to make all the adjustment Seitzer wanted. “Like putty” or something to that effect. If he’s really that highly coach-able and can make adjustments, I believe he will hit well enough as a catcher to be a valuable to very valuable player.

High contact percentage is a good marker for future success with the bat for that same reason.

by WURoyal on Feb 29, 2012 7:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Something else I was thinking about

Is it possible that he performs worse in the next 5 years. We’ll never know, but sometimes the guy who is making the minimum will bust his ass off looking for his big payday down the road.
The Royals gave Perez his big payday (for him, not for baseball players) without the years of him busting his ass.

Or, maybe the contract eases his financial worries, clears his head, and allows him to play his best over the next 5 years.

Stuck following the Royals since 1976.

by A. B. Aird on Feb 28, 2012 10:06 PM EST reply actions  

^performs worse^

Than if he didn’t get a contract. I was trying to go after the parallel universe angle.

Stuck following the Royals since 1976.

by A. B. Aird on Feb 28, 2012 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

The "Angel Berroa" route

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 28, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Look at this a different way

This contract is a lottery ticket. A lot of people use that analogy for PTBNL, but it applies here as well. Best case scenario, the Royals will only be able to afford one super star player at a time. Now, that number bumps up to two, if Perez fills in his upside. I’m not saying that’s going to happen… but it could. And for Royals fans that’s awesome.

For to long, we have been forced to hope for an Alex Gordon type scenario. A player with a ton of talent, who manages to fuck it up just long enough, for the Royals to be able to sign them to a reasonable extension.

The fact that Perez is unproven is a feature, not a bug. That’s the entire reason the Royals were able to make this deal come together. I’d like to see more of this, not less. It’s the Major League equivalent of over slot spending in the draft.

by Pointed Stick on Feb 28, 2012 10:12 PM EST reply actions  

If the white sox made this deal I would applaud Kenny Williams

His defense is so advanced that he does not have to hit that well to be valuable. All signs point to sal being very good defensively at a premium position, and if he is, a 270/300/410 or around there makes him very valuable especially under this contract.
He would have to completely flame out or be derailed by injuries for this not to work. This was a great low risk high reward extension from any angle

by LimaTime10 on Feb 28, 2012 10:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Daytons second best move

His best was getting meche to retire

by royalyblued on Feb 28, 2012 10:24 PM EST reply actions  

I wouldn't put this deal in Dayton's top 3

I think the Soria, Butler and Greinke extensions were all better because they were for actually good players. Perez is still just a prospect and I don’t think a high ceiling one. I like the contract. It’s definitely good for the Royals. I just don’t think it has the impact that other moves have had.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd take this one over the Soria and Butler deals

Greinke is #1—locking up an MVP contender at a reasonable price for 2 extra years is a huge win.

But I’ll take this deal over the Soria and Butler deals. Butler’s pretty easy—the terms were good, but they weren’t great. It was smart to lock him up, but it wasn’t a substantially below market deal considering the circumstances.

The Soria deal was very club friendly, and the long string of club options was something of a coup for a player that was already looking like one of the game’s elite closers. On the other hand, Soria was (and is) is a reliever, so the upside of his impact was limited. Even in the upside scenario where Soria continues to be an elite closer through the life of the contract, the club options to buy out his FA years would be only slightly below market rate for a very good reliever.

Compare that to Perez’s contract which guarantees less money and has less maximum money than Soria’s contract. The flip side is that Perez is less proven, so it may be less likely that he performs well, but the upside for a good defensive catcher with some indications of a good bat is 5+ WAR per season. As a closer, Soria was always going to max out at about 3 WAR per season, and his club options were structured to pay him about twice as much for about half the upside potential.

It’s close because Soria was a more certain positive quantity, but I’d give a slight edge to the Perez contract. Cheaper, more upside.

by kcdc1 on Feb 29, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

the upside for a good defensive catcher with some indications of a good bat is 5+ WAR per season

I don’t think it is fair to say that Sal Perez’s upside potential is 5+ WAR. I think his ceiling is considerably lower than that.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

How much is considerably?

What do you think his ceiling is?

Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.-Bertrand Russell

by Dr. van Strijcker on Feb 29, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

i think yadi is about as perfect of a comp as a comp gets...

and his best season so far has been 4.1 WAR…i personally think thats a fair ceiling

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

4.7 last year according to fangraphs.

With 15 HRs.

by WURoyal on Feb 29, 2012 12:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Yadi as the ceiling sounds about right

I think the perfect-world Sal Perez would hit a few more HR’s, but he might walk a little less too.

So maybe Perez’s ceiling is 4.5 WAR per season. Whatever it is, it’s more than a relief pitcher can reasonably provide.

by kcdc1 on Feb 29, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Probably absolute ceiling of 4. A more reasonable ceiling (not quite perfect world) of 3. If things go right, probably 2.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

unless im missing something

they can absolutely still demote him and delay his FA. I mean, they’d basically have to send him down for like 5 months or something but thats how it is contract or no contract. If they’re having to send him down for 5 months at any point, that’s bad news.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 28, 2012 10:33 PM EST reply actions  

Right

His guaranteed contract does not cover all his pre-FA years. He is “eligible” for free agency after the 2017 season – its just the Royals hold options for 2018 and 2019. They could decline those and he could walk. If the Royals demote him this year enough to delay his clock for another year, he wouldn’t be eligible for free agency til after 2018. The Royals could still decline the 2017 or 2018 options and go to arbitration with him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 28, 2012 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

the FA eligibility could also be pushed back

and he could miss that first aribtration in year 4 ( i think that works) and we’d be paying him a couple million when he’d be in line for the minimum…these are all worst case scenarios though

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 28, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions  

But realistically, after signing him to this deal, would they do that?

I have to think, no they probably wouldn’t.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah...i basically said that below...

i think it was unlikely contract or no contract. they fucking gush about this guy…moore and yost both

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 28, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions  

ahh the power mullett the classic "yep nope"

the tennesee top hat is a much rarer find in its natural habitat and on extremely rare occasions you might even find a mississippi mudflap in the wild.

Shit + Shit = More Shit

by Kansas City Keith on Feb 28, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm so SICK of the sarcasm and negativity on this board!

There isn’t a young catcher anywhere I’d rather have on this team than Sal Perez. It was a GREAT signing. Get over it and can the negativity.

by david.lowe on Feb 28, 2012 10:53 PM EST reply actions  

c'mon

this was just an intellectual exercise. You can tell Will’s heart isn’t really in it. When he wants to be negative about something he get’s after it.

2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition

by sfeldkamp on Feb 29, 2012 9:31 AM EST up reply actions  

It isn't even a negative piece...

…really…. read this quote:

The only worst case scenario here, the only way the Royals do lose a little bit in this deal is…

So, the worst case scenario involves losing “a little bit.”

super pessimistic

by kcemigre on Feb 29, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

i'll assume sarcasm?

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 29, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

objection
Of course, it is well established that he is luminously present.

it was concluded in the comments that presence does not exist and/or is/should not be of interest to the general public.

by billexgordler on Feb 28, 2012 10:53 PM EST reply actions  

One thing wasn't considered, though

That baseball is an entertainment industry, and there are ways to entertain and appeal to fans other than being good at baseball.

Sal’s “presence” helps the team by selling more tickets and more merchandise.

by Steelgator on Mar 3, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

now that i've thought about it...

i have found one possible negative about this deal. if by chance, perez does just end up being awful, i think this contract makes it more likely that he’s still starting on the 2013 or 2014 royals contenders b/c dayton and co see him as the backstop of the future and have paid him accordingly.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 28, 2012 11:02 PM EST reply actions  

I'm not so sure

You always need two catchers on the roster and if Sal sucks while still making less than $2m per year, I could see GMDM going out and getting a guy to split the time 50-50 with Sal.

by Loose Seal on Feb 29, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

just the way they talk about him though....

i dont see them being able to see that he sucks, even if he does. See mike scoscia and jeff mathis

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Yost really loves Perez, hell, everybody does, and they'll give him every chance tosucceed.

but there’s always gonna be another guy on the roster getting ABs to compare him to . If Sal’s batting .200/.240./300 while our back-up is batting .270/.310/.380, I think Yost will eventually have to give the back-up more time.

by Loose Seal on Feb 29, 2012 12:42 AM EST up reply actions  

One of the best things about this deal

to me at least, is that it’s a sign Moore won’t go out and waste money on a Kendall like catcher again. That deal was awful.

by DannyDavis on Feb 28, 2012 11:13 PM EST reply actions  

OT

but how the fuck can this piss collector clown act like he followed protocol when he passed almost 20 open fed ex places on his way home with brauns piss sample?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 28, 2012 11:24 PM EST reply actions  

I thought they were all closed?

But I haven’t read that much about the story.

by BeauJackson on Feb 28, 2012 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

im going based on what braun said....

and i assume that he wouldnt have said something blatantly untrue like that that could be proven false in a matter of 10 minutes

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 28, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Both sides are desperately trying to sell their side. And one isn’t telling all of the truth (with regard to FedEx locations, and who was open). I wouldn’t assume that Braun is necessarily telling the truth. I mean, he juiced and now he’s trying to push the focus elsewhere.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know he juiced.

I know a test came back positive that an arbitrator deemed to have been handled improperly within the guidelines of MLB testing. Outside of that, I’m just guessing.

by BeauJackson on Feb 28, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Pretty sure

Braun said in his press conference that he was told by someone of great knowledge to the situation that it would be very easy to tamper with a sample.

There is something big we don’t know yet.. I hope we do but we may never.

by focs on Feb 29, 2012 3:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Let me fix that

someone of great knowledge as far as how easy it would be to tamper with sealed samples

by focs on Feb 29, 2012 3:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Direct Quote
We spoke to biochemists and scientists and we asked them, how difficult would it be to tamper with somebody’s sample? and there response was that, if they were motivated, it would be extremely easy.

by focs on Feb 29, 2012 3:59 AM EST up reply actions  

This will all work itself out in the end

Either he will have a positive test again, or his production will sink demonstrably.

We should trade for Vance Worley.

by JKWard on Feb 29, 2012 4:08 AM EST up reply actions  

If that were true, then it would cast doubt on every test ever

There’s nothing in that claim that’s unique to Braun’s case.

Maybe he got unlucky that he drew the one collector who has it in for him. Or maybe there’s a vast conspiracy of collectors framing athletes and an equally vast conspiracy of silence to cover it up. I’m not sure which is more unlikely.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 5:48 AM EST up reply actions  

If that's the case

then what is the testing facility’s responsibility in ensuring the multiple “tamper-resistant” seals on a sample haven’t been messed with at all before they even start the testing process? If a sample doesn’t look absolutely pristine, are they required to reject it?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

That's probably my biggest problem with Braun.
1) Almost everyone that’s said anything about it says the sample wasn’t tampered with (MLB, collector) or didn’t bring it up at all (Braun).

He allowed for tampering the same way that your garden variety 9-11 conspiricist logic works, “I was just asking the question, maaaaahhhn.”

I’m fine with his suspension being reduced on a technicality, but it’s not like the sample couldn’t have been tampered with on the way from Miller Park to the nearest Fed-Ex drop box.

Nick Swisher is hands^h^h^h^h^h delicious.

by ChrisCEIT on Feb 29, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m fine with his suspension being reduced on a technicality, but it’s not like the sample couldn’t have been tampered with on the way from Miller Park to the nearest Fed-Ex drop box.

well then, there’s just one more flaw with the system….does MLB not have lawyers?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I tried to address all this in the actual Braun thread

But at some point you have to just establish a procedure and agree that it’s secure/reliable enough AND reasonable/practical enough…or else you just can’t have a testing program.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

It's just one more allegation with no substance

Just like they supposedly found out lots of dirt on the collector.

If Braun’s “experts” had really figured out a way to tamper with samples without disturbing all of the tamper-proof seals, it seems the logical thing to do would be to explain the flaw that makes that possible so that we might fix it.

Instead, he just seems interested in sowing any kind of doubt he can. Like a conspiracy theorist does.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I still don't think he did it..

The guy has been a stud his whole career while not failing a single test. He’s had no spike in production, has not gained any weight, has not got any faster, and has not got any stronger. For someone who was allegedly had 3 times more testosterone in their body than the next highest failed test, you’d think he’d have increased in all of those categories.

For someone who has passed every test dating back to 8 years ago in his minor league days, its a little fishy that the one time he “failed” a test, the process wasn’t performed correctly.

by focs on Feb 29, 2012 3:53 AM EST up reply actions  

It’s much more likely that he failed the test (maybe because of something minor, not for anabolic steroids), than that somebody tampered with his sample to try to screw him. The preponderance of the evidence shows that he juiced.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

we should not have a clue that he failed the test though...

MLB screwed up, big time….both in the leaking of the info and in the handling of the sample. how does braun not have a huge lawsuit here?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

He may have a contractual claim

to the extent there is some provision in an agreement somewhere that requires MLB to keep any information regarding test results confidential. But, as I understand the facts, he doesn’t have a very good defamation claim at all. The result Braun obtained from his appeal doesn’t have any impact on the fact that he did test positive, which is the information that was leaked.

And if he wants to spend a ton of money on his lawyers to try to prove in civil court (or arbitration, if required) that the sample was not actually positive, then he’s got a long, uphill, expensive battle. Plus, you’d think he would have tried to do that as part of his appeal process.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

This.

This is my problem with the whole thing. If they follow protocol and this never gets leaked, he wins the appeal and we never knew about any of it. That’s the thing I can’t get my head wrapped around. Why was he treated any differently from start to finish? I’m actually really surprised that he hasn’t gone out of his way to file a defamation lawsuit against MLB.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

For the last time

HE WON’T WIN A DEFAMATION SUIT IF HE CAN’T PROVE THAT THE SAMPLE WAS CLEAN. The fact that he won the appeal on a chain-of-custody/procedural technicality has NOTHING TO DO with the truth or falsity of MLB’s leaked/released statement that the sample tested positive for elevated levels of testosterone.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 6:30 PM EST up reply actions  

That's a completely separate claim

as I mentioned above. It has nothing to do with the torts of libel or slander (encompassed by the general term “defamation”). And as Scott mentioned somewhere else in the thread, there is probably a mandatory arbitration provision in the same agreement, so it’s unlikely we’ll hear about that claim, unless, of course…

it gets leaked.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

i dont know that i ever said anything about libel or slander....

im not a legal expert…it just seems to me that when there is ‘confidential testing’ and mlb lets it leak, someone should pay

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

MLB did some things wrong. I don’t know if he has a cause of action. I would imagine that the CBA covers those claims and that they have to be handled in arbitration.

What I was talking about was whether or not Braun actually had a banned substance in his system. It’s pretty clear that he did. There’s no reason to believe someone tampered with his sample to frame him.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 6:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, but Palmeiro had issues with his junk.

And it’s not like Palmeiro looked flabby and weak.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Feb 29, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Its a pretty big deal..

and obviously the arbitrators “gave a shit”

As Braun explained, once you give the sample to Fed Ex, the player becomes a number, meaning Fed Ex has no idea who’s sample it is. They store it properly, and chart everything they do with the sample even to go as far as to chart the make of the refrigerator.

Why he wouldn’t drop it off, when clearly he could have (Braun wouldn’t have made up the number of possible Fed Ex’s he could have dropped it off at) is extremely weird. Why he’d wait till 1:30 PM the day he day he dropped it off instead of a closer time to when they opened (7 AM) is weird.

Giving it to Fed Ex who properly stores the sample, has no idea who’s sample it is, and is considered to be in the chain of custody, clearly would have been the right thing to do. Why you need to wait 44 hours and leave it unrefrigerated in your basement in a Tupperware container when you, your wife, and your son knows its Ryan Braun’s sample is wrong.

by focs on Feb 29, 2012 4:53 AM EST up reply actions  

I can't find any MLB drug arbitration panel in the past that was split

It seems like the Romero one might have been, but I can’t find a reference to an actual vote or a tie-breaking vote cast by Shyman Das.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Well said.

and completely agree.

Its hard to know what happened, and we may never know. Food for thought though, the collector’s kid knew about it as well. Don’t you think you’d brag to your friends if you had Ryan Braun’s piss sample sitting in your basement. Maybe he and/or his friends did something to the sample. In that scenario, its entirely possible that Braun and the collector are telling the truth because the collector may have never known about his son tampering with it.

Just a scenario though.

Braun couldn’t be more right when he said in this type of situation, you are 100% guilty until proven innocent. Hell, I’m not even Ryan Braun and I’m pissed at the amount of people who now consider him a cheater and who think they know he used steroids. I can’t imagine how he must feel (if he didn’t do it).

He’s in a tough situation. If he continues to play at the same level he has his whole career what do people think then? That he still cheated? or that he still is cheating? and what if he struggles? In peoples minds they won’t even consider that he has so much pressure on him to do well to clear his name, that he could be pressing, and struggling because of it.. They’ll just think, well he’s off the roids so now his numbers are dropping.

I hope everything works out for the guy.

by focs on Feb 29, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the sample collector’s kid is a secret agent of the Cubs. All signs point to it.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

It was a false flag operation

the kid actually worked for the Cardinals.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

He juiced. MLB mishandled the sample and leaked the information. It’s pretty clear. Let’s just deal with the reality.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 6:14 PM EST up reply actions  

it just floors me how/what things you choose to believe

there doesnt seem to be any rhyme or reason to it. he mightve cheated and gotten away with it. he might not have. He’s been enoxerated by baseball’s rules. To me, it’s just as if he’d never tested positive, which is how it absolutely should have been had baseball not been a clusterfuck.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

He has not been exonerated

The arbitrator didn’t say he didn’t test positive. He said that the punishment outlined under the collective bargaining agreement can not be enforced because the rules under the collective bargaining agreement were not followed.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't understand why it's so hard for everyone to separate the two

I think most people believe that OJ actually committed the murders. The real difference of opinion, which people seem to understand, is between those who believe that he was rightfully acquitted of the crimes, and those who think that the technicalities argued by the defense still did not create reasonable doubt.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Good point

There’s a huge range between “not guilty” and “innocent.”

Juries don’t find people “innocent” or exonerate them. They just find whether there’s enough evidence to pronounce the person “guilty.” If they find there’s not enough, they find “not guilty” but it doesn’t mean the person didn’t do it.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

the artiber through out the test...

so what other evidence is there? how is he not exonerated? no evidence and no punishment

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Procedural technicalities should affect whether or not he gets punished. It doesn’t change the fact of his positive test.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

the test was deemed invalid

by an independant, mutually agreed to arbiter….it’s as if it never happened

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Is it your belief that Sammy Sosa didn't use steroids?

Since his positive test result was leaked in contravention of the existing policy

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:38 PM EST up reply actions  

The results were supposed to be kept secret

That process was violated.

I’m just trying to figure out which technicalities that have no bearing on the test result are grounds for disbelieving the result of the test.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

the protocols on the testing matter when determining whether a test is valid...

the leak pisses me off as well, but that doesnt invalidate the test in my mind. That just makes bud selig scum.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Before the test was thrown out, nobody made the argument

Braun’s team pinned all their hopes on the protocol violation.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

they didnt make any argument...

not a word was heard from the braun camp, as is proper

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Braun's camp has made plenty of statements

All the way through the process. They talked about the second test they had done, they talked about the ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone being the highest found in any MLB test. They talked about the “serious irregularities” in the testing process and so on.

If silence is proper, Braun’s camp is not proper.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

i mustve missed all of those statements before the hearing...

i remember hearing about the insanely high level…i was under the impression that came out with the test results though

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s as if it never happened? Only in a procedural way. We know the test happened. We know he tested positive. The procedural technicalities don’t change reality. He tested positive. It’s a fact. There’s no evidence that the sample was tampered with. There’s every reason to believe Braun had banned PED’s in his system.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions  

unreal

lawyer trampling all over basic legal principles

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

It's just like the O.J. Simpson murder case

The jury’s innocent verdict meant that he was acquitted and should not be punished criminally for murder. But, that doesn’t mean I have to pretend that the evidence didn’t show that he really did it. So I consider him a murderer. A murderer who should not be punished legally for murder. Facts exist. The decisions of jurors, judges and arbitors do no change facts. My own thought processes and common sense are not bound by the legalistic actions of an arbitor.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree...

but I feel that I have seen you argue the exact opposite of this for argument reasons.

I think that you are a master of the argument and have often wondered if your thoughts match your argument or if you just debate to win all debates?

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 29, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think I ever argue something that I don’t believe. I don’t need to pretend to believe X in order to scare up an argument. I find them easy enough.

Now sometimes we really don’t know the evidence and all we really have is the verdict to go by. In that case, I don’t think we should assume the person really did it. But when we do have access to important information, I think we can make our own judgements.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

the legal system decided there werent enough legally obtained facts to convict him

so i dont consider him a murderer.

i prefer to let the justice system do its job. i prefer to go with the agreement that two two entities like mlb and the mlbpa came up with. that agreement chose to not punish him b/c they couldnt prove wrongdoing due to a lack of attention to detail on the part of one of the parties

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

The purpose of the justice system is to determine whether people should be punished

You seem to believe that it’s some sort of truth commission. It is not.

It is heavily weighted in favor of the defendant because of societal preference to let probably-guilty people go free over sending probably-innocent people go to jail.

If you’re interested in finding out the truth, using the rules of the legal system isn’t the best way.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm saying your own brain is better suited as a truth commission

Evaluate all of the facts and draw your own determination.

Although, given that the jury system is based on the idea that the people are well-suited to judge guilt or innocence, if you believe in the justice system, you should believe in public opinion as a truth commission.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

those in a jury are given the facts...

we are not…we have been given primarily what was leaked by one side. Sure, Braun hasnt publicly attacked the actual positive of the test but we dont know if they did privately. We do know that used an avenue that they knew would lead them to victory..

In short, if we had anywhere close to all of the facts, i’d feel much more confident judging. Right now, no way. The information is far too slanted and limited.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

You think Braun had information undermining the test

And chose not to share it with the public as part of his PR campaign?

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

What information could he possibly have?

Unless he decided to go out an have his urine tested himself each time he was tested, what was he going to have?

The information he gave was saying the result was 100% BS.

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

He could have information that showed
  • the seals were damaged, or
  • the cup containing the sample was damaged, or
  • the bag the cup was in was damaged, or
  • or the box the bag was in were damaged, or
  • the ratio of testosterone-to-epitestosterone was outside of realistic ranges (they attempted to make this argument because Braun was apparently the highest ratio in MLB’s history, but there are players in other sports who have had higher ratios), or
  • the NMR result on the synthetic testosterone are inconsistent with known steroids, or
  • the NMR result shows the presence of contaminants, or
  • a re-test of the sample showed an absence of the results the lab found

    and that’s just off the top of my head

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 9:56 PM EST up reply actions  

a retest done a week later came up with nothing

im not biologist or whatever the fuck that would be but i doubt that 20x the testosterone got out that quickly…

also, didnt he offer to take a DNA test?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

There was a new sample taken and tested by Braun's team

I’m not sure how much time passed between the first sample and the second sample, but it did show the testosterone-to-epi ratio was different than in the sample tested at the lab.

However, that tends to increase the suspicion:

The defense team for Braun, who had an independent test done, will probably raise questions about the reliability of the testing procedure. This may include noting that while Braun’s initial test done by baseball showed he had abnormally high testosterone levels, a test done soon after by an independent laboratory showed normal levels.
But experts say it can be problematic if subsequent tests showed testosterone levels to be back to normal. Though some individuals have naturally high ratios, they tend to remain stable. A single anomalous spike would thus raise suspicion.

And they did not test Braun’s second sample for the main marker of cheating: synthetic testosterone.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

so, basically, there's nothing he couldve done...

to prove his innocence outside of independant testing immediately after MLBs testing every single time?

The 2nd test was taken a week later

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

If it was tampered with, show evidence of it

It the testing was done wrong, show evidence of it.

Doing a separate test that doesn’t look for the main marker of juicing does not do much to cast doubt on the result.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions  

isnt the abnormally high testosterone level in the first test enough to convict him? if not, why wouldnt a normal level be enough to say something was questionable about the first one?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Some people naturally have high ratios

The fact that his ratio changed from one test to the next tends to confirm that idea of an outside adulterant.

And, no, the first test is not enough to trigger a penalty. A high ratio triggers a second test for synthetic testosterone and that test triggers the penalty.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

but his test done a week later...

had his testosterone at regular levels? how quickly can that much extra synthetic testosterone leave the body?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions  

The BALCO technique

was to add epitestosterone to bring the ratio up to 1:1.

To answer your question, I think the half-life of testosterone is about two weeks, but I’d have to check my biochem book.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

we're stretching my chem knowledge here...

but a week isnt going to a whole shit ton to get rid of that high of a testosterone level with a half life of two weeks.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Since it's a ratio

You can just raise the denominator instead by taking epitestosterone.

You would not expect to see results that far apart in a person absent some sort of outside interference.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

You would not expect to see results that far apart in a person absent some sort of outside interference
and there’s your doubt?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

The outside interference

would be doping by the athlete.

That’s the whole point of this exercise — to find outside influences.

There’s a whole different set of methods to make sure there isn’t any adulteration of the sample.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I have one problem with believing the independent testing...

I’ll give you two scenarios first:

1) MLB is testing one of its most popular faces, the 2011 NL MVP, and really doesn’t stand to gain anything but bad press if he tests positive.

2) Said player or his defense team hires (i.e. pays them money) an independent organization to test a different sample one week later.

Look at those two scenarios, which are on two sides of the issue at hand. In either scenario, a positive test benefits no one. Everyone in either option would rather have a negative test, as it’s in their best interests.

The people in the second scenario had the potential for bias in their testing because they stood to gain something from the eventual result. I’m failing to see the potential for bias that would benefit MLB announcing a positive test.

Thus, I’m more inclined to believe the positive test from MLB compared to the negative test from Braun’s group.

MAJOR LEAGUE (The Royals)
Rachel Phelps (Royals Management): I think he'll fit right in with our team concept.
Charlie Donovan (Royals Fans): That reminds me, I was going to ask you. What exactly *is* our team concept?

by Royals Medic on Mar 1, 2012 1:17 AM EST up reply actions  

but I bet it gave him enough time...

to buy a Whizzinator

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 29, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Saying the result was 100% BS.

In this case, when the testing was ruled not to be done properly, is as good as MLB saying no it wasn’t.

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Plus, the jury is given only certain facts

The justice system denies juries access to facts (like whether the accused has been convicted of similar crimes before) that are very helpful in determining the actual truth of what occurred but are excluded because the system is concerned it might prejudice the jury against the defendant.

This is one of many reasons you shouldn’t rely on the justice system to determine what is true.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

but this argument implies that governing bodies make rulings true...

If this was the case, then it would be awful hard to believe in our own ideas. If I looked to authorities for the truth, I would believe everything every religious group ruled on and that would be scary.

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 29, 2012 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

The legal system does not determine truth. It merely approximates justice.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

except in this case...

where you’re going to push your own type of justice by sullying his name all over the internet

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it is fair to recognize the facts.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions  

its not a fact simply

b/c one side refuses to dispute it. The one side has nothing to gain by disputing it. They want this in the past as quickly as possible b/c with certain people, even an admission of tampering by the piss collector wouldnt exonerate braun. The easiest way to convince most people is to continue to put up huge numbers and to continue to pass drug tests.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Braun has nothing to gain by disputing the positive test? Are you kidding? Him being clean or not is THE issue, with regard to PR, his image and his reputation. If he could support the contention that he was actually clean, he’d be arguing it. He’d be yelling it from the rooftops.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

He said the result was 100% BS

What more does he need to say that would show he believes he was clean?

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

He would need to support that with something. Why is it that the tests came back positive? The tamper proof seals were in place, so how was it tampered with? If it wasn’t tampered with, explain the “false positive”.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

If the result is incorrect, there are only two possibilities
  • the specimen was contaminated, or
  • the testing was fauity

Either of these should leave markers. Broken or doctored tamper seals in the case of the former. Anomalous test results in the case of the former.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

His testosterone level

Being higher than seen before in MLB testing would seem to fit the anomalous standard.

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

It's well within normal human ranges

And also well within the ranges of previous test results for other sports. It just happens to be the highest in the MLB program, but unless there’s something unique about athletes who play baseball, it’s not really an anomaly.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

What other sports though

Are we talking weight lifting here? Braun had levels seen far beyond the norm for what baseball has seen among their population of baseball players tested, how is that not the definition of anomalous?

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions  

The WADA lab handles all sports

All olympic sports, NCAA sports, etc. That probably includes weightlifters, but it includes lots of other athletes as well.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm just wondering where his results fell?

Were they up there with weight lifters, or were they with say a tennis player who was caught?

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll look for it

It’s worth repeating though that his sample also tested positive for synthetic testosterone in addition to having an elevated ratio.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Is synthetic testosterone able to actually be found?

Or is it when the levels are so high, one deems that it must be present instead of actually finding it?

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 10:33 PM EST up reply actions  

See the blocktext below 10:23pm

They do a separate test to look at the atomic structure of the testosterone.

That test confirmed the presence of synthetic testosterone

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

the highest test by far for baseball players...

out of the thousands of tests theyve done, doesnt qualify as an anamoly?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Baseball has only had a few positive tests

So the universe that Braun’s ratio is being compared to is pretty small. Somebody has to be the highest.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Good info on the testing
The initial urine test used by the league measures the ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone. For most individuals, that ratio rests around one to one. In baseball, if the ratio is found to be at four to one or greater, it raises a flag necessitating a second test, one that can determine whether the testosterone molecules are synthetic as opposed to the result of a naturally occurring condition. Braun’s sample drew positive results in both tests.
"The fact that there’s two different tests raising two separate questions creates a significant hurdle and starts to be problematic for the athlete," said Gary Wadler, the former chairman of WADA’s prohibited list and methods committee.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/sports/baseball/brauns-appeal-of-drug-test-could-face-uphill-battle.html

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

This article states

The results showed he didn’t ingest any steroid or performance enhancing drug, so what was he suspended for?

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions  

That's a quote from Braun's team

“a person familiar with the appeal”

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:44 PM EST up reply actions  

MLB's position is

this is evidence that he ingested PEDs

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

mlb cant even draft a drug testing agreement...

i dont understand why we take their word as gospel

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 10:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The lab says he had synthetic testosterone

The lab is the best in the world at what it does.

There is zero evidence of tampering.

I don’t care how talented MLB’s lawyers are. There hasn’t been any reason to question the scientists doing the work.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I was thinking the same thing...

it doesn’t seem to match your MO, McKinney. What have you say about this?

Is it something that you regard outside of lawyer-dom?

Or is it something you think at work, but do your job regardless of what you think?

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 29, 2012 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

The synthetic Testosterone

was assumed because the ratio was so high when compared to the epi levels. There was no actual substance found. The MLB screwed up the testing process, leaked confidential information, refused the request to do DNA testing on the sample, and did not find the elevated levels in the test administered after the findings came out. The verdict was the correct one whether he did it or not. There is much more evidence that this may have been a mistake or aberration than there is that he took a banned substance of any kind.

The fact that the ratios were so extreme as to be higher than those who took steroids or actually injected testosterone of used the cream is an aberration that makes you wonder by itself. Is it more possible that there was a mistake, deliberate or not, than the possibility that Braun found a brand new way to elevate testosterone after having been regularly tested for 7 years, took it, did not achieve a significant change in body or ability (It was his best year, but not by a huge amount. He was 27 and had been performing near that level since he has been in the league), and then was able to flush all evidence of it out of his system?

To some of you it really seem important to angrily judge or condemn the man. You seem personally offended that he was not suspended, accusatory and angry that he was not brought down. I worry about your mental well being, and I hope you find a healthy outlet for your anger and .judgmentalism.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Feb 29, 2012 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

This is 100% wrong

There are two separate tests — one for the ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone and a second for the presence of synthetic testosterone. Braun’s A sample failed both tests and his B sample failed both tests.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

The test

for synthetic testosterone IS the ratio between testosterone and epi. There is further test which can be done, called the Carbon Ratio Isotope test, that can further isolate whether the testosterone comes from the body or from Soy.

The MLB does not do this test as of now, and did not perform this test on Braun’s sample which is a further failure on the MLB’s part. An A sample and B sample is from the exact same donation, that is split into two halves and tested separately. If the initial problem was with the handling of the sample, then both results are void. If he had failed the next test subsequent to the positive result, they could have suspended him based on that result alone.

Check some facts to cover up your ignorance before you call someone else wrong. It might save you from looking like an angry fool.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Feb 29, 2012 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

That is not the case

The ratio between testosterone and epitestosterone varies naturally. The presence of a ratio over 4-to-1 triggers a second test, and only that test provides evidence of cheating.

The initial urine test used by the league measures the ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone. For most individuals, that ratio rests around one to one. In baseball, if the ratio is found to be at four to one or greater, it raises a flag necessitating a second test, one that can determine whether the testosterone molecules are synthetic as opposed to the result of a naturally occurring condition. Braun’s sample drew positive results in both tests.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/sports/baseball/brauns-appeal-of-drug-test-could-face-uphill-battle.html

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Your comments

are much more misanthropic than anything to do with this case.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Feb 29, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe that individuals can be motivated to cheat

I now believe Braun is one of those people.

I do not believe that a random collector with no apparent motive was both evil enough to taint Braun’s sample and brilliant enough to do so while not disrupting the tamper-proof seals on the vial, or the bag that it was in, or the box the bag was in.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

That's fine

but if you’re Braun’s lawyers, you’d also want to put on evidence of every last possible defense you may have had. And we haven’t heard a word about any of those arguments, i.e. it was a “tainted supplement”, etc. Braun’s lawyers may have made such arguments, but given that we’ve seemingly heard about every other possible detail involved in the case, I doubt that they did. Meaning that we can only assume they knew their client was nailed to the wall on the science/positive sample issue, and they didn’t bother with any defenses based on why it shouldn’t have been considered a positive test.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

He seems to care a lot what people think

Enough to go around smearing the integrity of the collector and questioning the tamper-proofing measures.

If he’s choosing a defense that’s less likely to fly with the public in order to spare himself some embarassment, the truth must be super embarassing. Of course, that just makes the attacks on the collector even more reprehensible.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

In this situation the public mattered a whole lot less than the arbitrators.

He had to get the suspension overturned first and foremost. Repairing image had to be secondary. Just like on this thread, there are people that have passed judgement with little knowledge of the actual facts in this case. We really don’t know shit about what happened, other than what’s been reported/leaked. That hasn’t changed since last fall.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

That's a pretty big exception
We really don’t know shit about what happened, other than what’s been reported/leaked.

Pretty much everything is out there now. The collection process, the test results, both sides’ arguments. There’s plenty to make an informed judgment with.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

None of which would be known if the original leak never happens.

None of this ever comes to light if it’s handled properly. To me, the test results make zero difference. Based on the rules they are invalid, period. That’s why he won. It just pisses me off that they made it public. Scott’s right. The other day he said that for all we know it could’ve been a suppliment from GNC.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, a supplement from GNC which contained a banned PED. I’m not saying he’s an evil person. But I think it is pretty clear that he had banned PED’s in his system.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm in no way arguing that.

I just think that we’d never have known about any of it had the leak not happened. That’s a big problem. Especially since he passed the second test. This guy’s now labeled for the rest of his career.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

That he passed.

I remember that coming up almost immediately after the story broke last year. I was really surprised that he even got suspended because of that.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

My understanding

based on, among other things, this article, is that the second test was
1) conducted by Braun’s people
2) only looking for the testosterone-to-epitestosterone levels and did not check for the presence of synthetic testosterone.

Since the presences of synthetic testosterone is what got him banned and since it only stays in the body for a few weeks, the fact that a different test a couple weeks after the initial one didn’t look for and didn’t find synthetic testosterone doesn’t seems to mean much to me.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly my point about the first test.

If an arbitration committee invalidates it and reinstates him, the first one means nothing to me either. He probably took something. I never said or implied that they even tampered with the sample. The guy effed up and that’s getting Braun off. That’s the bottom line. I do however think that the only reason it was leaked when it was, was absolutely because he had just won the MVP.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 6:43 PM EST up reply actions  

The first step happened

It showed Braun cheated. He can’t be punished for it because of a technicality. I’m fine with that, but I still believe he cheated.

A second test that didn’t look for and didn’t find the evidence that he cheated doesn’t seem to provide any information to contradict the first test.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:49 PM EST up reply actions  

and it's 100% clear that by the rules of baseball...

and according to the arbiter that they had a hand in choosing, who has been pro ownership in every other decison, that braun is innocent. MLB’s tester follows their agreed to protocol and this is a non-issue.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 7:34 PM EST up reply actions  

What do you mean by innocent?

Are you saying it’s 100% clear that Braun didn’t take PEDs?

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

aboslutely not

im saying that due to incompetence on the part of mlb and the tester that braun has a spotless record with regards to PEDs and should be treated as such.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

You can choose to ignore information

But it’s odd to be surprised when other people take advantage of all the information available to them in making a determination about what they believe.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, the attacks on the collector are reprehensible.

Kind of like how this whole thing was even leaked in the first place.

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm just a little lost.

The collector didn’t do his job correctly, why is he off limits?

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 6:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The collector did his job exactly the way he understood it to be done

He says he handled this situation the same way he always does. Other sports say this is the way their samples should be handled in this situation. MLB says that it was their understanding that this procedure was in keeping with the MLB protocol. The collector did his job exactly as he was instructed to do. So there’s no suggestion either of intent or of negligence on his part.

Braun says that there are things his team has learned about the collector “that are concerning to us,” but he gives no indication of what those things are. It’s a smear campaign against a guy who’s not a multi-millionaire and thus, much less able to defend himself.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:30 PM EST up reply actions  

When Braun's legal team argued that the way MLB and this collector went about things was wrong

Braun’s team won. So it’s great that he did his job as he was supposed to, except he and MLB have been using a faulty procedure. Just because Braun’s team was the first to realize this, doesn’t mean what the collector and MLB were doing was ok.

“Things that are concerning to us” can be read however you want to read it. Maybe it was in reference to this guy not getting the sample to FedEx on Monday morning, maybe it was something more nefarious. I don’t know, and I don’t really care. What I would like to know is who leaked this to begin with, their is the original bully in the whole situation.

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

No, MLB isn't using a faulty procedure

As I understand it, they’re using the same valid, accepted procedure that other sports use. The problem is that MLB’s rules regarding their testing program were more stringent and/or different than the testing procedure that was actually employed. The end result of this whole case is that MLB will be changing its rules to more accurately reflect the accepted and common procedure. I don’t think the procedure itself will be changed.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

So the real question is

Why was MLB using a procedure that didn’t jive with their own rules? Who made this call, the league or the collectors?

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

The league says

"The extremely experienced collector in Mr. Braun’s case acted in a professional and appropriate manner. He handled Mr. Braun’s sample consistent with instructions issued by our jointly retained collection agency,"

They believed (and still believe) that the procedure did comply with their rules. The arbitrator disagreed.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

You're a lawyer right?

Something doesn’t add up here with MLB’s rhetoric. If they were following procedure within the guidelines of their agreement with the MLBPA, how could an arbitrator rule that they weren’t? MLB is full of it it would seem, unless some other legal scenario exists.

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Not a lawyer, just surrounded by them

As I understand it, instead of just adopting the protocol used by other sports, MLB wrote a protocol from scratch that it thought it would do the same thing, but it wrote it in different terms.

As a result, the question about which imperative would control in this situation: the one to keep the sample in controlled conditions or the one to hand it over to Fed Ex as soon as possible. It wasn’t clear from the protocol, and the arbitrator ruled that the dictate to get it to Fed Ex should trump the dictate to keep it in controlled conditions. MLB had been working under the understanding that the dictate to keep it under controlled conditions should trump the other.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Good grief.

It does seem the getting it to FedEX ASAP is the best route to go, so at least they’re now going with that option.

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

My understanding is that they're doing the opposite

The process followed in this case will be the protocol going forward, as it is the protocol followed for all other sports.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Seems like an odd protocol

Since the collector received the specimen directly from the source, he is not entirely “independent”,. Why would they want that person holding onto the specimen for two days?

by BeauJackson on Feb 29, 2012 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Why isn't the collector "independent" just because he collected it?

And since the whole issue has been about the chain-of-custody, then how would the protocol have improved reliability by injecting yet ANOTHER person into the chain?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I think they trust the collector more than the Kinko's employees

The collectors are known and identifiable if the sample is found to be tainted or degraded.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:18 PM EST up reply actions  

taking it to kinkos isnt adding a person to the chain of custody...

it has to go there anyways…all it’s doing is taking the sample away from the only person who can identify who it belongs to

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

They trust the collector to maintain the conditions

They don’t trust the Kinko’s employees to the same extent.

They’re confident in the protections against tampering.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

My point exactly from the word go.

Why was this time different? Any lawyer would have destroyed this.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 7:38 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Because the collector knew that even if he had dropped it off at FedEx

it wouldn’t be shipped until Monday morning, which means it would have just sat around in the FedEx warehouse/shipping facility for almost two days. I think it’s perfectly reasonable for the collector to feel that the sample would be safer and more reliably stored if it was in his possession the whole time.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 7:45 PM EST up reply actions  

So in MLB's written protocol

it gives the collector the latitude to decide if he can sit on a sample and just not take it to Fedex? I doubt that this is the case.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Mar 1, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions  

The protocol says two things that came into conflict here

The collector is responsible for keeping the sample climate controlled until it ships.

The collector should ship the sample promptly

MLB interpreted that to mean hold the sample in climate controlled conditions until FedEx could actually ship it. The arbitrator ruled that they were required to promptly turn it over to FedEx (at a kinko’s for example) even if it wouldn’t ship for two days.

by KSinDC on Mar 1, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

even IF you think him holding the sample until monday was fine....

are they acting like none of the fed ex locations ship before 1:30 PM?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Mar 1, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I haven't read any discussion of that aspect

It seemed to be the keeping the samples for the weekend that the arbitrator focused on.

I have no idea if a 4 hour delay would typically be problematic in these sorts of cases.

by KSinDC on Mar 1, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

From the perspective of the sports leagues and the drug testers

This time was exactly the same as every other time. They follow the same process each time. This is just the first time somebody pointed out that the process they follow each time doesn’t actually match the protocol written out in the agreement.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

MLB bullies Braun

Braun bullies collector.

I feel sorry for collector.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel far less sympathy for bullying victims who turn around and bully others

I also feel far less sympathy for people who make millions by being a public figure than by people who live private far-less-lucrative lives.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

He did the job his employer told him to do
MLB had no comment, and referred instead to its statement from last week:
"The extremely experienced collector in Mr. Braun’s case acted in a professional and appropriate manner. He handled Mr. Braun’s sample consistent with instructions issued by our jointly retained collection agency," it said.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

you're making the exact same argument that players make

when they ‘didnt know that substance was against the rules’…do you stand up for them as well?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not at all the same argument

If a player takes an MLB-approved supplement, there’s a safe harbor where even a positive test that results from it won’t be subject to punishment.

I’m saying that as long as you follow the rules as MLB gives them to you, you’ve done nothing wrong.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

no...not an approved one that was tainted...

players have made the argument, generally poor hispanic players, that they just flat didnt know and they were in venezuela or wherever when they bought it

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

If somebody wants to go outside the safe harbor, they take their chances

The collector was following the rules given to them by MLB. I don’t see how it’s at all comparable to a player taking a supplement that’s not on the approved list.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

i am attacking both mlb and the tester....

stupid rules and a tester who wasnt smart enough to follow them…and apparently was lucky enough ‘hundreds of times’ that he didnt follow the rules that nobody challenged his incompetence.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

that sounds like a cover your ass move at this point...

but who knows. are we to believe that the tester never actually read the rules?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Every other sports agency says they follow the same procedure as the collector

MLB is changing its rules to clearly reflect that the procedure he followed is the one that should be followed going forward.

The problem was in the vague drafting of the protocol, not the well established procedure that this guy followed.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

As KSinDC has explained

to the extent you want to direct your ire at someone, that someone should be the (probably lawyer) who was responsible for drafting MLB’s protocol, not the collector who was doing his job in the proper manner.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 8:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Nobody knew it was against protocol until Braun's lawyers exploited the vague wording

You make it sound like this guy knowingly did something wrong. You don’t have any reason to say that.

He says this is the procedure he’s always followed. Other sports say this is the procedure they use. MLB says it was their understanding of the procedure to be followed. This poor guy has way more at stake than a multi-millionaire like Braun.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

If it's the procedure he always followed by storing the piss at his house,

every player he ever collected from should come crawling out of the woodwork to exloit the situation. It’s a mess and MLB should have never let it get out. This should never be made public until after the appeal process is done.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

The procedure he followed will be the protocol going forward

MLB is rewriting their procedures to conform to all other sports, all of which follow this procedure. The idea that this is some sort of renegade collector using some fly-by-night procedure is a very odd meme.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I just think it's crazy to think that

these guys would sit on a sample all weekend. I’ve been tested for drugs for work before, and they always took us to a lab and we knew we passed before we left the building. Granted, different circumsances and much different drugs I assume too.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

This is well more sophisticated than drugs tests for work.

Regardless of how crazy it seems, this is the procedure. It’s designed by biochemists. It’s been followed for years. It’s not under dispute, except insofar as it differs from MLB’s written protocol.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

No one has been able to explain to me the fundamental difference

between having a sample sit in a trained, authorized collector’s house (where only two other human beings potentially know about it) versus delivering it to a common carrier like FedEx. Why is having it in the collector’s house inherently more unreliable and “crazy” than sitting in a FedEx warehouse or truck over the weekend?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not talking about the written protocols or rules

I’m talking about the underlying reasons and rationale for those rules. Why is one storage/holding procedure more inherently reliable than the other?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I look at the storage holding procedure

from more of a security risk. If I take $20,000 cash from a customer over the weekend at my job, I’m not taking it home with me. That’s actually what they encourage me to do. It’s asinine. My whole issue is that it just seems really cavalier for him to take it home.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Hell,

I have no idea. I guess I always figured they weren’t independant contractors. What’s wrong with each city having a lab that takes care of it?

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 7:07 PM EST up reply actions  

They're using very sophisticated equipment to do the tests

They need specific advanced equipment and people well versed in the protocols for handling the evidence.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

And yes.

I think he’s guilty, and I’ve never tried to insult you with that kind of bullshit either.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 7:01 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I didn't mean it as an insult (I should have given it more context)

That seems like another case where the legal protections dictated an acquittal even though the preponderence of the evidence pointed toward guilt.

I was just wondering if your reasoning was the same in that case.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:07 PM EST up reply actions  

You're fine man.

Sorry I took it that way.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 7:30 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

No, I'm sorry

I was looking for your e-mail to try to write you an apology. I can exactly see how it came off that way, and that was my fault. You’ve been very fair all through the debate, and you deserved more consideration that that dashed off comment.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 29, 2012 8:23 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Yeah...

there was the one with the actual quote I was going for, but after pulling the PC card in the other thread I thought I would give it awhile.

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 29, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Really you're good.

We’re all fans and it’s absolutely fine to diagree. I’d have emailed you last night and told you this too, but with all of the tornado damage in our area, I was having a hell of a time when I left work and was trying to use the tSBN app.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Mar 1, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

No problem both ways.

I also have my email on my profile now. Not sure when or why I had removed it.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Mar 1, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

The real issue that I think KSinDC was trying to get at was this:

Do you think OJ actually DID IT? (I take it your answer is yes.)

But do you also think he should have gotten off? Or would you have voted to convict him?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Not having been there,

it’s hard to say. I think I was 15-16 at the time and still shocked that the Juice would have that in him. I’m sure it would’ve been tough to give him an acquittal. The Braun thing just drives me crazy because there’s really no way to know if this is the only player this has ever happened to with a positive test. If it hadn’t been leaked, would we have ever even known about the appeal overturning it?

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 7:35 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

what i think doesnt matter...

ive never said OJ was a murderer….and i never would. i can think he’s a scumbag b/c he repeatedly beat his wife and how he acted after the fact but he was found not guilty…so thats how i saw him.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions  

its not two human beings...

the collector has 3 other people with him…thats at least 5 people….who the hell knows what their motivation could be. there’s absolutely no reason for mlb not to have testing facilities all over the place…a 100% controlled environment

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

There are only a couple of these labs per continent

They require expensive machines, expensive personnel and there’s no purpose to having more of them.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you have some reason to suspect

That people have found away to open the box with the tamper-proof seal, then the bag with the tamper-proof seal, then the cup with the tamper-proof seal, all without disturbing the seals?

Absent some reason to believe that the defenses against tampering aren’t working, it seems pointless to spend millions of dollars to guard against a non-existent problem.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

When he's talking to the public, he ought to go with the defense he finds the most convincing

He’s claiming that they found out some shady stuff about the collector, but he won’t back that up with any specific allegations that can be refuted, so it just looks like a run-of-the-mill smear campaign.

Aside from that, all he’s got is this technicality. It’s not as though the process used here differs from the one used in every other sport. It just differs from the mediator’s interpretation of what the baseball rules imply.

If this is what he’s going to the public with, I assume it’s because he doesn’t have a better explanation.

by KSinDC on Feb 29, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

So..

you think if he’s gonna throw the collector under the bus that he shouldn’t half ass it and say exactly what he found out!?

Maybe he doesn’t want to throw the collector through the meat grinder completely. He understands he has a family. He even said in the press conference that he doesn’t want to accuse the collector of tampering with the sample because he obviously knows what its like to be wrongfully accused. All he would say was that he found out some shady stuff (he is not entitled to share what stuff it is, regardless of how bad you want to know) and that he thought it was strange it would take 44 hours when he could have dropped it off immediately, or that he could have dropped it off closer to the opening time of whatever Fed Ex he preferred to drop it off at the day of.

by focs on Feb 29, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Will

To get you to write a positive article on Sal’s performance in 2012, at the end of the season, what stat line must he achieve?

Would a .275/.325/.430 line with 10 HR’s and quality defense (30% base stealers thrown out, very few passed balls, limited errors) satisfy you?

"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow

by Kim DeJesus on Feb 28, 2012 11:31 PM EST reply actions  

Same Boat

Im Bitching about the negativity too, but this is good stuff

Lets just enjoy the ride, fellas......

by ChosenOneK on Feb 29, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry that I'm late,

but when and more importantly why did Will change his name to “Freneau”

by focs on Feb 29, 2012 3:39 AM EST reply actions  

It's probably

an homage to Phillip Freneau.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Feb 29, 2012 4:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Some asshole

told me you were a zombie, thats nothin to fuckin joke about.

Shit + Shit = More Shit

by Kansas City Keith on Feb 29, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

HAHA

Yeah, I laughed

Lets just enjoy the ride, fellas......

by ChosenOneK on Feb 29, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

While I appreciate the attempt

to present another side, this deal is good in every way. Perez would have made $480,000 this year no matter what, and unless he died or had a career ending injury, he would be on the MLB roster at least as a backup at least one more year. Worst case scenario, we waste what amounts to about $1.2 million per year.

Fangraphs points out that Jarrod Saltalamachia and Jeff Mathis went year to year for 5 years, and made $4.5 million and $5.4 million respectively, so if he does not have a career ending injury, and ends up being a fairly undesirable part timer, we lose about $400,000 a year, less than the major league minimum.

Geovany Soto went year to year and was pretty good, and made $8.9 million in 5 years, so if he reaches that level, we make a couple million.

After that it’s all team options, and that is team options for his 27, 28, and 29 year old seasons. We locked up a promising young player for at an important position for his entire 20’s (If we decide we want to exercise the options) for a guaranteed outlay of only $7million. That kicks ass! If that was lottery odds I’d be taking my paycheck to Quiktrip every week.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Feb 29, 2012 4:18 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

And if he does

make the full $26.75 million over 8 years, it means that he reached his incentives and we thought he was good enough to bring back. Which means he was worth it.

If you add up the Royal’s highest paid catchers from the last 8 years, they made a total of $19.6 million. And accounted for a total of 0.9 fWAR and exactly 0 bWar in 8 years.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Feb 29, 2012 5:00 AM EST up reply actions  

$480k

$500 in 2014.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 29, 2012 8:42 AM EST up reply actions  

you didn't address Will's main point about the potential downside

What if Perez can’t actually hit? It’s not like he has a sustained record of success. Sure, we’ll trust the Royals’ scouting (and our own eyes, to an extent), but what if his actual ability is closer to his lackluster AA than his good but SSS AAA? It doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good extension, but there is certainly potential downside.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 29, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Rec'd! :D

Next up, find out to make it
SSS-AAA-LLL-LLL-YYY
or, for bonus points
SSS-AAA-LLL-MMM-OOO-NNN-EEE-LLL-LLL-AAA

by sterlingice on Feb 29, 2012 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

nice

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 29, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

In what way(s)

was his AA experience lackluster?

by Rufus R. Jones on Feb 29, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Perez was exactly league average offensively

Prospects are expected to hit better than league average in the minors.

by Gopherballs on Feb 29, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

You really want to compare Perez to Myers?

Myers’ performance in AA was lackluster (but still better than Perez — 104 wRC+ versus 100 wRC+ — and Myers was hurt for half the year). In the previous year, Myers was 54% above league average (154 wRC+) in A ball and 69% above average (169 wRC+) in A+ ball. In stark contrast, Perez was exactly league average (100 wRC+) in A+ ball in 2010 and 71% below league average (29 wRC+) during his short stint in A ball in 2009.

by Gopherballs on Feb 29, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

If Perez ends up as Gerald Laird

the deal becomes kind of a shrug. If Perez becomes Brayan Pena, the Royals will end up paying Perez roughly twice as much as they would have going year to year.

Plus, one of the things BA questioned about Perez is his size and that it may affect his defensive ability in the future. He is 6’3 and already 230 pounds with, as BA put it, a thick lower half, which would suggest additional weight as he ages and a threat that he, again as BA put it, enters the (non-Yadier) “Molina zone.”

This was a good, very smart deal, but there are definite risks, even though it is more fun to talk ourselves into believing he is as good as Yadier Molina.

by Gopherballs on Feb 29, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

When I first heard the Molina comp

I thought that if Perez could be 80% of Yadi Molina I’d be happy. Molina’s average fWAR from 2008-2011 is 3.7, so 80% of that is 3 WAR. I’d take that.

The “fans” projection at Fangraphs has Perez at 3.2 WAR in 2012, 80% of Molina’s 4.0.

by thelaundry on Feb 29, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

those "fans" projections are notoriously optimistic

and this one in particular is based on only 16 votes (15 of which I would guess are Royals fans). And they do not include baserunning, which is going to hurt him like it does Butler.

Perez is a good defender, but that does not automatically mean he is as good as Molina (who is regarded as the best defensive catcher in baseball or close to it). Perez is also considerably bigger than Molina, and size can present problems for catchers defensively.

by Gopherballs on Feb 29, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I don't put much stock in that

But the ratio was interesting since I’m hoping for (not necessarily expecting) 80%. Are there player WAR projections based on ZiPS out there?

by thelaundry on Feb 29, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

My point was

Downside is limited. If he completely sucks somehow the Royals lose about $6 million over 5 years or less than they paid Chen and Yuni this year alone. Most of the value of the contract is in 3 one year options and they will know where they stand by then. The upside, which is that he becomes a viable MLB starting catcher and we have him through his age 29 season, is much higher.

As has been said before, the series of one year options has been mentioned with Tampa, mostly referencing Longoria and Moore. Not usually mentioned is Rocco Baldelli, who was given a similar extension and failed. Because a large amount of the contract was in a series of one year options-like this one- the Rays just did not pick up the first one and lost very little when Baldelli proved to be a fluke.

I think DMGM was watching and learning and I give him credit for that. This is a low risk signing with potential high rewards and is perhaps the most fiscally sound move of his career.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Feb 29, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree in general - I was just harping on the

“limited downside” (which it features and is great) vs “no downside” (which is not really correct)

(those aren’t actual quotes by you, me, or anyone else, they’re just two ways of thinking about it)

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 29, 2012 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

If he hits .250 he will be worth every penny and more

Defensively he is the best catcher this team has had in recent memory and maybe ever.

by maddirishman on Feb 29, 2012 10:36 AM EST reply actions  

I am in uniformed agreement, Will

Lets just enjoy the ride, fellas......

by ChosenOneK on Feb 29, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Big fan of this signing

the guys a force in front of and behind the plate (no homo).

Shit + Shit = More Shit

by Kansas City Keith on Feb 29, 2012 6:05 PM EST reply actions  

Nice

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 29, 2012 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I have a question for all

I’ve read many saying that Perez is a spectacular defensive catcher. This has been said using a wide variety of superlatives that basically describe him as super-terrific, elite defensive catcher; probably one of the best in the game. My question is, where do you get this from? Scouting reports? His MLB performance? “With your own eyes” evaluation?

I’m not saying he isn’t a good defensive catcher, but is he really super extra great one-of-the-best-in-baseball? Here is what the 2011 BA Prospect Handbook said about his defense:

Perez has slightly above average arm strength and threw out 42 percent of basestealers in 2010. He does a good job of framing pitches, handling velocity and calling a game.

That’s certainly positive. But that sounds like the description of a good defensive catcher, not a super elite, one of the best, spectacular defensive catcher.

My point here is that the consensus is that even if he hits very poorly, his super-elite defense will still make him pretty valuable. Is that true? Are his defensive skills and performance truly transcendant?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 6:26 PM EST reply actions  

How do posi-trac rear ends work?

How are rainbows made?

Shit + Shit = More Shit

by Kansas City Keith on Feb 29, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Is that really all we have, RR community?

I know the Braun PED discussion has hijacked the thread, but as Perez’s defense is his major skill, how good his defense is seems like an important issue. What do we know about his defense? Why do we think it’s great? Give me what you got.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I have no idea.

From reading reports from various sources and in listening to the org talk about Perez, I think he has the ability to be a very good catcher, possibly elite. Do I think it’s a huge difference between an elite catcher and a good one? No, so I’m not too worried about it. I don’t think Olivo or Buck or Treanor killed us over the last few years defensively.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Feb 29, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Will already bit the bullett and found the cloud in the silver lining

We all know it- you don’t have to really drive it home. He could flame out for any number of reasons: hitting not good enough, defense not good enough to make up for bad hitting, and did I mention poor hitting.

But, really, you want us to debate that a prospect could actually not live up to potential? Want to bet that I won’t win Powerball tonight? Or that the political problems of the world will not be solved by the next election? Did you find somewhere you could bet a quadfecta that a #16 won’t beat a #1 in a couple of weeks?

It’s Spring Training. It’s a completely unexpected and welcome surprise at a time of year when optimism is supposed to run high. We’re Royals fans- we know the next Dan Riechert, Jay Witasick, Jose Rosado (damn his feeble arm!), Blake Stein, Chris George, Jimmy Gobble, et al, are right around the corner. We not ones who look gift horses squarely in the mouth.

That’s one of the great parts of the contract. It’s such low risk that even if it does fail- it’s still only the cost of two years of Jason Kendall, one year of Jeff Francouer, or four months of Jose Guillen.

Let us have this one.

by sterlingice on Feb 29, 2012 9:01 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

But, really, you want us to debate that a prospect could actually not live up to potential?

No, I just wanted to discuss his defense. It seemed like everyone was assuming that he’s an excellent defensive catcher. I just wanted to see what information was out there to support that.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I think there ought to be better ways for determining catchers' defense anyway

A Pitch F/X type thing for the speed and movement of catchers and their throws would probably do wonders—how fast does catcher A actually get the ball to 2nd, and so on. What’s the maximum distance a catcher can move to save a block ball?

by Yodazilla on Feb 29, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Holy Shit...

YES. Let’s do this. More science please.

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 29, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I really think that one day that video evidence can be put into a

matrix that calculates how a player moves and gives them a score or something.

For example, I think we will eventually be able to film a high school player from the same angle as other high school players and plug that into a computer program that spits out a number on how well they “move” and thus that number would help scouts to judge how well they scout.

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 29, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

The thing is

Pitch F/X already tracks the ball. Why can’t it be modified so that the numbers would also include the defensive capabilities of the catcher?

by Yodazilla on Mar 1, 2012 6:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Not sure what you mean here.

Pitch f/x is a camera system that is designed to pick up things on the pitch between the release and it crossing home. It’d have to be a completely different system to do anything with catchers.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Mar 1, 2012 8:15 AM EST up reply actions  

I think what you're getting at is missing that the Pitch F/X system doesn't

know where the catcher is. What if one catcher positions himself outside, then blocks a pitch that is way outside while another catcher positions himself in the middle, then can’t get to a similar pitch? Sure, there’s some benefit to knowing that, but you’re more interested in the catcher’s reach, not his initial positioning.

They’re working on systems that track players’ movements, and I imagine a very close-up one to track catchers is more difficult than one for other fielders – but I would expect it to happen eventually.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 1, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know how I could have possibly viewed this as overly confrontational and pessimistic

“What do we know about his defense? Why do we think it’s great? Give me what you got.”

by sterlingice on Feb 29, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

It was an honest appeal for information

That quote was confrontational and pessimistic? I asked what we know? We appear to think it is great. That must come from somewhere. I would like the information people have. I don’t read every site that has prospect evaluation. There’s lots of info out there that I haven’t seen.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry- my mistake then

I read it as “Everyone says he’s a good catcher but there’s no evidence”.

by sterlingice on Feb 29, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s clear there is evidence that he’s a good catcher. But it appears many conclude that he’s a great, spectacular, elite defensive catcher. I’d like to see the evidence that supports that. And I’m not looking for proof, I’m not setting the bar that high, just more information.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

this is where it wouldve been handy for him to be a top 100 prospect before...

a 20 year old 3 b/b- prospect in a ball isnt going to get a ton of information published even though it’s out there. im surprised there isnt more out there from the past few days. Im sure we’ll hear more this season though.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

He has a 1.8 sec pop time which is considered extremely good.

His framing metric (+10 runs) was very good, although sss applies.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Feb 29, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

The PBS thread broke my computer’s Z key

It broke my will to live.

by Rufus R. Jones on Mar 1, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

same difference

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 1, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

ive seen things ranging from above average to super elite. there have been reports about his 1.8 pop times. there have been glowing scouting reports. I’ve seen what I consider to be very good catcher play. I’ve heard that pitchers love to throw to him and that he handles them extremely well. There’s alot of subjective stuff in there. I tend to believe he’s a good defensive catcher and I feel like that is a very fair assessment for everyone involved.

There’s little out there with regards to catcher defense, so without using subjective data, we’d have little idea who is a good defensive catcher and who is bad.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with all this

Although I will say that I trust hand-recorded “pop times” about as much as I trust hand-recorded 40 times. In the case of catcher defense, however, the widely-held belief that he’s one of the quickest to get a throw off is worth just as much as if he was 100% certain to actually have those times.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 29, 2012 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

the actually times matter little to me...

the fact that people are sayign they’re faster than everyone else does….if i hear a guy ran a hand timed 4.2, i know that he’s not really running a 4.2 but im also very confident that he’s fast as fuck

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I appreciate the information

Does anyone have links to people outside of the Royals system (or Pine Tar Press) which describes Perez’s defense as more than just a good defensive catcher? I believe it’s out there; I’d just like to read it. I’ve heard of the above average arm, great pop times and “quality receiver,” “pitchers love to throw to him” (for whatever that’s worth, and I really don’t know how much it is worth), but I just haven’t seen the effusive praise for his defense outside of the Royals or Royals fan circles.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

described by BA as 'quality'

That report remains accurate. I’d be lying if I said we envisioned that Perez would hit .331 in the 148 big league at-bats this year, though at the same time I’d be lying if I said anyone thought he was going to have that kind of bat going forward. Perez still profiles as a useful regular, providing quality defense while hitting for a solid average with a little pop but a mediocre OBP.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2011/2612439.html

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Clearly scouts like him, but...

I still haven’t seen anything saying his defense is great, excellent or anything better than “good”. Quality defense. Above average arm. So far everything I’m seeing says he’s a good defensive catcher with some hitting potential. As BA put it, “a useful regular.”

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 29, 2012 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

im still looking...

i know i’ve read it…just dont know if it has only come from royals people or if i saw it elsewhere

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 29, 2012 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

is it possible we've underestimated perez?
The vision depends on players being more valuable than their salaries, of a potential star like Perez — one scout this week said Perez’s worst-case comparison is Yadier Molina — signing away the first eight years of his career at a significant discount because he likes the team as much as he wants financial security.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/02/29/3460722/perezs-signing-may-help-lock-up.html#storylink=cpy

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Mar 1, 2012 11:05 AM EST reply actions  

What scout actually said that?

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Mar 1, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

who the fuck knows?

that was mostly said tongue in cheek. that’s an absurd statement. different positions and all, but I would probably say that bryce harper and mike trout’s ‘worst case scenarios’ are about at yadi level….perez isnt exactly in that same category.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Mar 2, 2012 2:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I wasn't blaming you.

It’s still a WTFuck statement.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, and pontificating on pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick.
Twit. Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Mar 2, 2012 4:51 AM EST up reply actions  

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