The Projected Royals According to Bill James

by JKWard on Feb 7, 2012 6:10 AM EST

The Super Bowl has ended. Whenever this occurs, it makes me feel like the baseball season is officially under way. I don't get into college basketball, so the two weeks between Super Bowl Sunday and the start of Spring Training are the euphemistic doldrums of the sports calendar for me.

Right around this time I like to take a look at what some of the projection systems are saying about how the Royals hitters will fair this upcoming season. I try to peruse around, but some of the most easily accessible ones to find are the ones listed on the FanGraphs player pages. ZiPS isn't up yet, but RotoChamp and Bill James both have their projections for the Royals. For this exercise, I went through and pulled all of the Bill James projections for the Royals presumed starters for the 2012 season.

Starting Lineup	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Alex Gordon	156	677	22	96	81	14	.276	.361	.467	.359
Johnny Giavotella	147	551	7	65	60	12	.295	.342	.419	.334
Eric Hosmer	153	653	23	86	92	14	.311	.362	.494	.369
William "Billy Butts" Butler	160	679	20	81	96	1	.301	.372	.477	.363
Jeff Francoeur	152	627	18	73	87	14	.269	.317	.432	.321
Mike Moustakas	149	593	18	68	84	3	.278	.323	.447	.336
Savior Perez	119	396	8	42	51	0	.287	.317	.413	.319
Lawrence Cain	146	573	10	73	58	22	.284	.337	.416	.334
Hercules Escobar	158	598	4	69	46	26	.267	.309	.360	.297

Some observations:

Bill James likes Johnny Giavotella a lot more than anyone else. RotoChamp has him for .287/.315/.419, which would still seem a tad optimistic to most of us. For what it is worth, the Fans projection has him at .272/.319/.387. I'm not sure that even the skewed perspective of fan voting is not a little generous.
BJ's regression on Francoeur is in line with just about everyone everywhere except for the Facebook cognoscenti.
I don't know what to take away from how they view Lorenzo Cain. I don't necessarily disagree with his projection, but assuming he saves 5.0 runs or so on defense that would make him about a 3.5 fWAR player, which seems a bit high. I do hope he performs well, though. I am pulling for him.
Perez's projection would appear to be heavily influenced by last year's 158 PAs. I want to believe he can hit for that high an average. I think he can, eventually. I don't know if this season is it, though.
.311/.362/.494 from Hosmer seems like a stretch for 2012. All of those numbers seem to be elevated to me.
If Gordon's AVG drops by twenty-seven points, I don't think his OBP will dip by only fifteen. With as much as he strikes out, his average and on-base are linked more than some other players.
The next year and a half for Butler is huge. If he sees a spike in his homeruns to start this season he becomes very tradeable by July. If he spikes in the second half, he becomes very tradeable in the off-season. Same thing goes for the first four months of next year.
I agree with a good deal of these projections, but probably none more so than Escobar's and Moustakas'. Both seem to be right in line with how I would expect them to perform this season.

I feel like the overall numbers fit more in line with a reasonable expectation for the starters. I may have a quibble here and there, but taken as a team projection I think it fits better. Or is easier to swallow. Your choice.

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Comments

Thanks for posting this

I need more time to actually research it, but IIRC, James historically seems more optimistic with his projections than most of us brow beaten hen pecked Royal’s fans around here. Seems like his offensive projections in particular are a little inflated compared to the other systems. I’d be thrilled with the vast majority of those projections if they be true.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 7, 2012 8:17 AM EST reply actions

same here...

I am only barely scratching the surface when it comes to statistical analysis and my initial reaction was: “DAMN! I’ll take those numbers!”

I am the one who knocks.

by PhattStairs on Feb 7, 2012 9:56 PM EST up reply actions

thanks for posting

i for one dont think James projections for Gio are too inflated, definietly somewhat inflated, but not grossly. The fan projections you posted for him are more in line with what i would have predicted at .275/.300/.400. however, i’m one of the only people here that think Gio will actually be a 1.5-2.0 WAR guy over his career.

also, believe Alex will hit for higher average than Bill predicts and ZoCain will hit for less power.

by DickHowser4ever on Feb 7, 2012 9:02 AM EST reply actions

I think Gio may show surprising SLG

I just have a hunch he’ll be a good doubles hitter. But it’s just that; a hunch.

by Yodazilla on Feb 10, 2012 6:09 AM EST up reply actions

ZiPS is up

And we’ve already discussed the Bill James projections and concluded that they were generally too optimistic for at least the hitters. ZiPS looks about right tho.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_kansas_city_royals

by kcdc1 on Feb 7, 2012 9:53 AM EST reply actions

Complaint: Mr. Butler's name is not William

It’s Billy Ray, which we ought to start calling him instead of just “Billy” or “Fatso.” Sounds Southern and a bit rednecky-tough.

I have a second cousin in Texas named Lonnie Otis. Not just Lonnie, not just Otis, but Lonnie Otis. He’s a good guy. Career military.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Feb 7, 2012 11:53 AM EST reply actions

Those are actually pretty decent numbers

Nobody is projected to suck, which is what kills so many teams, having a couple of positions filled by sucky guys.

If Escobar can hit .270/.310/.360 he’s a plus shortstop. (He does have a little doubles-triples power.) Go Alcides. Love those sidearm throws from the hole, and the relays to the plate, and those guaranteed double plays.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Feb 7, 2012 12:01 PM EST reply actions

Bill James projections, everyone!

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 7, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

None of those numbers looks implausible

They’re generally positive, perhaps a bit too positive in some cases, but fairly reasonable. This is the lineup we all wanted, mostly homegrown, under 30, and cheap (so far). My only true fear is that Yuni plays too much, and too much is >100 at bats.

What I’m really afraid of are the projections for the starting rotation.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Feb 8, 2012 5:57 AM EST up reply actions

The Zips projections for the lineup aren't much different from the Bill James

Zips doesn’t project anyone to suck, either, except for Yuni and Getz. And the entire starting rotation.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Feb 8, 2012 6:09 AM EST up reply actions

I didn't know Alcides was Hercules' birth name

Cool. A shortstop named Hercules.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Feb 8, 2012 6:20 AM EST up reply actions

What most stands out is that 551 seems like an awfully generous

amount of PAs for Giovatella. There seems to be a general sense that Betancourt will worm his way in there, even if not to a full everyday role. How many PAs did James project Betancourt to receive?

"There is nothing shrewd about running a red light and later finding out it kept you from being hit by an asteroid." - philofthenorth

by KeepItCopacetic on Feb 7, 2012 12:13 PM EST reply actions

IIRC, it was north of 450 PAs

Based on previous seasons. RotoChamp had him around 250 I believe.

Assuming he plays every game for every infielder (I did this last night but didn’t include it because I couldn’t find an accurate projection), it puts him at about 120 PAs over 32 games.

We should trade for Vance Worley.

by JKWard on Feb 7, 2012 2:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Every off-day for every infielder*

We should trade for Vance Worley.

by JKWard on Feb 8, 2012 1:40 AM EST up reply actions

Like most, I think Bill is a little optimistic

The ones that make me raise an eyebrow are Moose and Cain. I don’t anticipate either posting these numbers. I guess we’ll see, let’s hope Bill is right!

by Rufus R. Jones on Feb 7, 2012 12:31 PM EST reply actions

I think Moustakas' season line is mostly driven by how slow of a start he Getz

If he struggles through April and May, his triple slash will look a little worse than it is now.

We should trade for Vance Worley.

by JKWard on Feb 7, 2012 2:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

than it is projected to be*

We should trade for Vance Worley.

by JKWard on Feb 7, 2012 2:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Bill James projections = "if everything goes right" projections

I think if you used the Bill James projections for every team, the “average” team would win 92 games.

by Gopherballs on Feb 7, 2012 12:33 PM EST reply actions

I don't think they are terribly over-optimistic

Compared to the AL last year, the team offensive projection still has them in the bottom third in HRs and runs scored.

We should trade for Vance Worley.

by JKWard on Feb 7, 2012 2:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I always think the batting averages on these are jacked way up

What are the odds we really don’t have a regular batting worse than .267? If you take everyone that had 200+ at-bats last year (10), 4 of them hit .263 or below. After that, the next three guys (between 178-186 AB) hit .247 or below.

It just seems unrealistic. The Royals obviously have younger guys, so we should expect the majority to progress, not regress, but the projection seems to think we have a fairly good hitter 1-9.

by KyleM on Feb 7, 2012 4:30 PM EST reply actions

Escobar And Perez

Will be doing well to exceed .250. Giavotella should be better. I’m optimistic, given the surgery he had to have. We have a lot of young players who project to be starters, so it’s really a crapshoot.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 7, 2012 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

it looks like Bill James is predicting

Steve Balboni's record is safe for another year

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 7, 2012 5:13 PM EST reply actions

Oh, huh!

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 7, 2012 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

I love Bill James projections

I don’t think they’re terribly accurate, but they’re pretty fun. If nothing else they provide something of a “projection ceiling” for everyone.

Things that stuck out to me:

- Basically Hosmer’s entire line. I don’t think he gets 14 steals. I definitely wouldn’t dare to dream of a team-leading .370 wOBA. 20 more points of BA, 30 more of OBP, and 30 more of SLG from the middle of the lineup? I’d be ecstatic, but I don’t see that happening.

- This projection doesn’t seem to take Moose’s 340ish PAs from last year into account. We expected a low BA, high SLG, below average fielder at 3B. Instead we got a singles machine with a glove that looked a little more decent than we thought. 340 PAs isn’t much to go off of, but I wonder if the type of player we get in Moose is different than what we bargained for? For what it’s worth, I’d love for him to add 80 points of SLG, but I don’t know how likely it is. Prove me wrong, Moose. But keep the glove.

- The Escobar projection looks about right, and I’d be okay with that if he keeps up the defense. I don’t expect superstars at every position. Alcides can be very useful to the team even if that’s all he can hit. I wish he’d learn to walk more. With a higher OBP he’d be one of the best SS in the league.

- Mediocre numbers for a corner outfielder from Jeff Francoeur? I'm shocked

- Getting that production out of Joey Vanilla-thong would be sweet. Not sure where that 70 points of OBP is magically coming from though.

If all of these projections came true, we’d most likely win the division. My money’s on one or two of them being accurate. Hopefully the Hosmer and Giovatella ones?

Teaching My Girlfriend About Sports

by Soria's Unibrow on Feb 7, 2012 7:32 PM EST reply actions

I Think Gordon

Could easily exceed last year’s numbers. All the projection systems place too much emphasis on 2009-10, which I steadfastly believe to be bizarre outliers. I would love for Cain to show the OBP skill to lead off, so Gordon could bat second with Butler, Hosmer, Francoeur, Moustakas and Perez next. Put Giavotella in the eight slot, with Escobar batting ninth. We have become painfully right handed, but the best batters need to bat the most.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 7, 2012 9:22 PM EST up reply actions

I've always thought

That a Gordon/Butler/Hosmer 2-3-4 would be hell for opposing pitchers. If Cain can show OBP, he should leadoff—no brainer.

by Yodazilla on Feb 10, 2012 6:03 AM EST up reply actions

if you won't take my hand

Keep the glove

"You're like that guy who wrote that thing about remembering stuff!!"

- Crow T. Robot

by Crooow on Feb 10, 2012 7:16 AM EST up reply actions

Bill James doesn't actually have anything to do with these projections any more does he?

I mean, sure, his name is on it, but isn’t basically just branding at this point? Like how Jim Davis ‘does’ Garfield?

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Feb 8, 2012 12:45 AM EST reply actions

That is correct. I don't really know what else to call it though.

Bill James™?

We should trade for Vance Worley.

by JKWard on Feb 8, 2012 1:40 AM EST up reply actions

The Bill James projections claim that Bill James remains involved

It’s more or less just an algorithm that just needs to be told to run, but according to an explanation I found via Google, Bill is still involved in any changes or updates to the algorithm.

by kcdc1 on Feb 8, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions