Royals Bullpen Handedness Splits
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 7, 2012 11:30 AM EST
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PrintThe difference between great relievers and the rest of them are their ability to get both left and right handed batters out. Most pitchers who have this ability to get out both handed batters are called starters. The following in a quick look at how the Royals bullpen's past handedness splits.
One important note to remember is that it takes a while for a pitcher's handedness split to level out. According to the "The Book", it takes 700 batters faced for RHP and 450 batters faced for LHP to get to a 50% level of certainty in a pitcher's handedness split. With that understanding, here is how some Royal relievers have done in the majors:
| vs LHH | vs RHH | ||||||||||||
| Name | Hand | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | IP | TBF | Confidence |
| Joakim Soria | R | 8.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3.12 | 163.0 | 10.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 3.28 | 152.1 | 1278 | 65% |
| Jonathan Broxton | R | 11.6 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 3.22 | 176.2 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 2.30 | 215.1 | 1640 | 70% |
| Greg Holland | R | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 2.07 | 34.0 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 3.06 | 44.2 | 320 | 31% |
| Jose Mijares | L | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 3.17 | 73.0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 5.01 | 80.2 | 654 | 59% |
| Aaron Crow | R | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 5.06 | 26.0 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 3.41 | 36.0 | 266 | 28% |
| Blake Wood | R | 6.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 4.66 | 56.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 3.47 | 63.1 | 523 | 43% |
| Tim Collins | L | 8.3 | 8.9 | 0.6 | 5.04 | 29.1 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 3.98 | 37.2 | 295 | 40% |
| Louis Coleman | R | 7.3 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 5.45 | 19.2 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3.45 | 40.0 | 244 | 26% |
| Everett Teaford | L | 4.2 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 4.16 | 19.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 5.90 | 24.2 | 175 | 28% |
Notes:
- With Soria's and Broxton's ability to get out both handed hitters, it can be seen why they have been entrusted with the closer role in the past. Both have pitched enough innings to have a good idea that this trait is for real. Greg Holland is the only other Royal reliever that has performed decently against both LHH and RHH, even though it was against a smaller sample size of hitters.
- Looking over the list, it can be seen why the Royals went out and signed Mijares and Broxton. No other pitchers besides Soria and Holland have been able to able to get out LHH. Mijares should only be used as a LOOGY though. He has a huge established split between his ability to get LHH (3.17 FIP) vice RHH (5.01 FIP) out.
- Tim Collins has problems pitching to LHH. How in the hell does have almost a 9 BB/9 vs. LHH? The little guy needs to find the strike zone.
- Aaron Crow is another pitcher that struggles mightily with LHH. The difference in his FIP between LHH and RHH was over 1.6. It might be nice to see him bring these two values closer together before he is tried in the starting rotation.
- Like Mijares being used as a LOOGY, Coleman may only be useful as a ROOGY. His K/9 (~11) and BB/9 (~3) vs RHH is outstanding. Against LHH, he does his best Crow and Collins imitation and has no command (7.3 K/9, 6.3 BB/9). Maybe it is something about having a last name that starts with C leading to an inability to pitch against LHH.
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A key variable there is Broxton's health
When he’s been healthy, he’s been effective at getting out both RH and LH batters. But when not healthy, he hasn’t been able to get anybody out. Will he be healthy and near 100% in 2012?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
Round?
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 7, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Nice work, Jeff.
PItcher splits stabilize more quickly than hitters,and there are are adjustments you can make, but this gives a good idea of what is up.
One question: Aren’t the regression numbers given in The Book based on wOBA against? Did you use different ones for the various component stats?
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
You may be right.
I don’t have The Book with me now.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 7, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
You may be right.
I don’t have The Book with me now.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 7, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
You may be right
I don’t have The Book on me now.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 7, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
nice plus replies
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Feb 7, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I am having a ton of issues with SBN right now.
It is driving me even more nuts than usual.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 7, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
Good stuff
Just to clarify, the first grouping is performance against left-handed hitters and the second grouping is performance against right-handed hitters, correct?
Not suprisingly, the pitchers who do well against opposite handed hitters for the most part throw a decent change, curve, splitter, or some combination thereof. Broxton is the exception, but his pre-injury fastball was something special and his slider does not have much horizontal break, so he should be able to use it against lefties without getting hit hard.
No understand. Only see one table.
No sure if left ees right or right ees left.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Sorry, I missed a line of the table
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 7, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Crow Could Be
Just as effective as Broxton; location, location, location.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 7, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Looking at those tables
I might think the best opening bullpen would be something like: Soria, Broxton, Holland, Mijares, Coleman, Wood, and Teaford (though Crow could also sub in for Wood or Teaford).
The first three are the back end guys, the middle two are the specialists, and then the last two are used to eat multiple junk innings.
It also makes me hope that they send Timmy back to AAA for some work.
Agreed
With a minor note that Coleman’s numbers aren’t so great that I’d like to see him in high-pressure situations and Wood’s numbers aren’t so bad that he might be more valuable than a long-relief or 6th inning guy.
Yeah, for the highest leverage situations
you ideally would want Soria, Holland, or a healthy Broxton. That is not always going to be possible, though, so as long as Coleman is only facing righties and the situation does not call for a groundball (as Coleman is an extreme flyball pitcher), he is probably the best choice. He is such an extreme flyball pitcher that he will always present a home run risk, but the extreme strikeout rate helps to mitigate that.
If the situation calls for a groundball, Wood is the better choice thanks to his high groundball rate (52% career).
With a groundball rate of 52% the
smartass in me, wants to ask if his HR rate is 48%. It seems like most of the times I’ve ever watched him, he gets flat out lit up.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 7, 2012 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
Wood was above average at preventing home runs in 2011
HR/9: 0.65 (AL average: 0.99)
HR/FB: 8.6% (AL average: 9.8%)
Wood was crappy in his 7 innings in high leverage situations, which explains this perception of him: 7 IP, 4 K, 5 BB, 12 H, 2 HR, .417 BABIP, 7.74 FIP. I bet a good number of those batters were left-handed.
Fail: Aaron Crow is an all-star
banned
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 7, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
dammit
reverse ban
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 7, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
This makes me think much differently of our bullpen.
Not as good as I thought it would be. But then there’s Kelvin Herrera waiting.
the bullpen is still pretty good, especially if Broxton is healthy and relatively effective
Wood is a decent pitcher to be considered the fifth or sixth guy in the pen.
true
but that’s a big if and people seems to also gloss over the fact that we’ll likely have to replace crow’s production
Besides Herrera we will also have waiting the wings
on the 40 man
Jeffress
Verdugo
Adcock
Near or major league ready
Sisk
Minor
Keating
Baumann
Chapman
So there is 8 more good bullpen arms.
Go Royals!
Wood Has Good
Stuff, but an annoying habit of walking batters or hanging breaking pitches. Kinda like Chavez, but not as bad. Crow can be effective with two pitches; he just lost his command after the ASB. I suspect injury.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
He was having some sort of arm trouble in the second half.
Nothing major, but probably a constant nag. Perhaps like Wil Myer’s injury in AA.
Crow's constant nag:
Ke$ha
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 7, 2012 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I like our current line up
I hope soria 2012 is more like soria 2010 instead of soria 2011
Crow is solid but we need to limit his use or he’ll be like post-all stars crow
I hope Broxton stays healthy throughout the year
again, collins? Really?
I think part of Timmy's problem against lefties
Is that he sets up on the extreme edge of the rubber. If he moved a little further to the middle to start his absurd windup, it would help him walk fewer lefties. That said, it would make him a little more hittable against righties.
Wouldn’t it be crazy if someone altered their windup/mechanics based on the handedness of the batter? It would be cool if it worked, but pitchers are such creatures of habit and repeating mechanics as exactly as possible is so important that I imagine trying to get him to do it would make him entirely useless. Generally speaking, if you have to stop and think about what you’re doing mid-windup, you’re going to throw balls or get whacked.
by Soria's Unibrow on Feb 7, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
maybe bruce chen
should teach the entire bull pen how to throw all 6 of his pitches
and if we can hire someone else to teach the fast ball, we’re solid
I played with quite a few guys in college that moved around on the rubber.
I don’t think it was super effective or anything but they did it. But against same handed batters (L vs L for example), they’d go to the far first base side. Reasoning that throwing to the outside corner would make the ball appear to be more outside and actually be moving away from the hitter more and an inside pitch would appear to be farther inside because it was released in line with where the hitter was standing.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
I Used To
Move from one side of the rubber to the other based on handedness of the batter.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Reply To SU
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 7, 2012 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
from rany
‘The Royals’ bullpen ranked 8th in the AL this season with a 3.75 ERA, but to give you an idea of just how bad Mazzaro’s seven-out, 14-earned-run performance was, if you take out that one appearance, the bullpen’s ERA drops to 3.52 – which would have ranked third in the AL, just thousandths of a point behind the Angels for second.’
Considering our pen mostly featured just 2 pitchers with 1 or more years in the bigs, this years pen should be epic
OK, But You
Do have to replace Mazzaro’s with someone else’s. Still a huge improvement (probably), but maybe not as great.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 7, 2012 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Last year's basic seven-man bullpen
(Soria, Holland, Coleman, Collins, Crow, Wood, Adcock) put together a fine record, considering, and Teaford, the eighth guy, wasn’t too bad either. One would think that throwing sixty big league innings, which all of them did, would give the young ’uns valuable experience.
This year there’s more competition with Mijares, Broxton, and Hottovy, and Jeffress’ and Herrera’s second chance. Not much risk of another Boom Boom eruption, I don’t think.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
even boom boom has little risk of another boom boom explosion
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 8, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
Worst pitching performance in baseball history, right?
Depending on how you measure it, say, runs per batters faced. Even Mazzaro would find it difficult to pitch that badly again, and the chances of his making the big league team are minimal anyway.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
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