Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects (Insider)
Mike Trout 1
Bryce Harper 2
Wil Myers 13
Bubba Starling 15
Cheslor Cuthbert 43
Mike Montgomery 52
Jake Odorizzi 71
4 months ago
RoyalsRetro
101 comments
0 recs |
Comments
Much better than the BA one someone put up earlier
that had no Royals on it
god, i know its just 1 and 2....
but i dont get how anyone can put trout over harper
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I know scouts are drooling over Trout's tools
But Harper’s monster offensive potential is more exciting to me. He’s the guy I would want.
i just dont get the droolworthiness of his tools....
SBs are nice but i’ll take the 50 HR potential
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Defense and position?
Not being snarky, but even if Harper hits 50 HR, somewhat less gaudy hitting numbers from Trout could lead to a more valuable player with good defense at a premium position.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 9, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
10 run difference b/w CF and RF?
i think they’ll both be significantly above average defenders and i dont think trout will approach 30 homers
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
The more I look at them, I can see why.
Offensive numbers:
Trout triple-slash in the minors .338/.422/.508, 11.5 BB%, 16.0 K%, 104 XBH, 102 SB, 27 CS in 266 GP
Harper triple-slash in the minors .297/.392/.501 13.0 BB%, 19.2 K%, 43 XBH, 26 SB, 7 CS in 109 GP
Trout measures up pretty favorably.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 9, 2012 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
and a full year older and a year and a half more experience at every stop
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
They're both young for the levels they've been playing at.
Yes, age plays a part. So does position.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 9, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
we shall see what happens
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
trout will probably be better than harper this year....
but i’ll take harper for the 15 years after that
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
That's possible.
I will not be surprised if Trout out-WARs Harper in half of those seasons, though.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 9, 2012 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
glad im not alone on that one
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
I don't really have a horse in this race.
I don’t own either in a keeper league and neither are Royals. I merely took umbrage at your outrage at someone having the gall to rate Trout over Harper. A fairly reasonable argument can be made on both sides.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 10, 2012 5:58 AM EST up reply actions
absolutely
I would probably go with Harper, but barely. Trout is a much better all around player, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up the much better player down the road.
I'd be surprised if these take it into account and I doubt you care about it here,
but Harper’s “makeup” still has me leery.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
his makeup is a positive for me
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 10, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
This doesn't surprise me. But can you justify it?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Feb 10, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
no more than anyone can justify anything about positive makeup....
i like what i read about his work ethic. i like that he knows he has the most talent out of anyone and seems willing to do anything possible to prove it. i like that he plays all out. i like that he taunts the other team once in awhile. worst case scenario, he turns into barry bonds. nobody like him, teammate or opponent and it didnt make a damn bit a difference. more likely though in my mind, he grows up a little and learns to not piss as many people off.
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 10, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
That's the thing I would point out as well.
I think I would take Trout. I would be a little worried about Harper’s defensive contribution and also his ability to make contact against ML pitching.
also his ability to make contact against ML pitching.
based on? harper’s better contact rate than trout at AA? the fact that his contact rate improved at every stop?
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
No
Because I don’t know if his contact rate will rise high enough against ML pitching for him to hit for a decent average. He’d still be a nice player, but I think it’s slightly more likely that Trout becomes a star.
why do we know that to be true about trout?
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
An All Star level defender in CF along with
.330 BA and 30+ HR. Most think he’ll slow down as a runner but believe he is a Grady Sizemore (Healthy) level performer offensively in CF. That is very very valuable.
Only prob is that he won’t play much CF if Bourjos hits and in that case Harper goes ahead of him
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
assuming 650 PA
an 18% k rate and 30 homers, you’re assuming a 380 BABIP for trout? and i think that 30 homers is highly unlikely for trout and nearly impossible combine with a 380 BABIP…guys that are fly ball hitters enough to hit 30 homers arent going to have a 380 babip
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
i mean...c'mon....
ichiro is just as fast and is at 350 for his career and he bunts and hits the ball on the ground like crazy
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Its about tools not actual season stats
Trouts got above average running speed, hitting for average, fielding and power tools with current 80 grade speed and fielding tools. His arm is only thing that grades as average
Harper has 80 grade power and arm tools while everything else grades as average.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
not a single tool of harper's gets an average grade
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
He currently grades as an above average defensive OFer?
With an above average OF arm (including accuracy)? Just asking.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 9, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
he's probably not average OF defense right now...
but there’s no reason to believe he wont be in the future.
trout does not have above average power right now either
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yes there is he is going to get bigger and slow down
he’s 6’3 225lbs at 18 years old
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
and if he slows down to average speed....
and has an 80 arm, how is that not an above average RF?
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
It can be in the right year
His hitting tool isn’t average either now or does it project to be above average in future. I understand your love for him but all of these are about projections and light tower power is great but I understand when people go with Trout and his multitool set.
This isn’t meant to be a debate just telling you what I’ve heard for years
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
explain to me why trouts hit tool is considered above average
and harper’s is considered below average? harper is making just as much contact as trout while improving at every level whereas the opposite is true for trout plus power and good contact skills arent mutually exclusive
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Hitting for average is a tool
Trout has already hit .352, .341 and .326 in his 3 minor league seasons. He has above level speed which will give him extra infield hits each and every year. He’s not selling off average for power like some sluggers do with an outstanding approach. He isn’t much older than Harper either playing and excelling at AA at only 19+ yrs of age and putting up a 20.5% LD rate.
Harper by most scouts standards is a .260-.280 hitter with big power some have graded him higher than that but he has more of a swoop swing making contact rate tougher as you would expect. Most sluggers don’t carry an above average hit tool power is a separate tool all together and shouldn’t be mixed in
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
thats fine...give him the credit for the infield hits...
but he’s not going to get enough of those to hit 330 AND hit 30 homers on a regular basis even if the bat speed is there…and he’s not going to hit 330 alone without significantly cutting down on his Ks or getting BABIP lucky
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
He may well. But of course the arm would have to be accurate, as well as strong. And speed isn’t the only factor in OF defense. There’s getting good reads, good jumps and taking good routes. And then there’s error-proneness. I’m not saying Harper is likely to be poor at any of these things. I’m just saying there are more variables in his OF defense than speed and athleticism. I also didn’t and don’t assume that Myers will become an above average defensive OFer.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 9, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
thats where we differ...
i assume that a guy like harper, gordon, myers can learn to play the outfield well…its not a hard thing when you have the two main tools in speed and defense
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps. I’m particularly cautious about such expectations about converted catchers, although sometimes it certainly works well. Maier became a good defensive OFer. But he wasn’t 6’3" 225.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 9, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
dont forget about werth
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Taller and lighter than Harper
Harper is built a little bit more…like a tall catcher.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 9, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Myers may have been drafted as a catcher,
but he played just as much if not more at many other positions. The tag on him should have been more of an athlete pick than a catcher. He was pushed at catcher the first season, b/c it would be GREAT to have a Mauer type behind the plate. Sal Perez became an option, so they shifted gears with Myers. There is no reason to believe he won’t become an above avg outfielder.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Feb 10, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
im trying to find a professional opinion on both...
that includes present and future tools grades but im struggling so far
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
you're the one that threw out the absurd future season stats for trout...
i was just pointing out that those were basically impossible.
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I wish we had a CF with Trout's tools
if Bubba actualizes what they say he is then we have another Trout. Would that excite you?
I love both players but I can see why Harper and Trout are high, personally I put Moore above them both
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
He certainly has...
a championship-building last name.
There are literally DOZENS of us!
by Tracer Bullet 82 on Feb 9, 2012 5:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was very excited until I read this:
“Starling compares more to Jeff Francouer — a CF version of Frenchy, and maybe not quite as thick as him, but physically and in terms of tools, he’s more Frenchy than Trout.” John Manuel, BA
And Bubba said in an interview the other day he’s trying to put on weight. What’s next, a crazy eyes transplant?
I think he looks much more athletic than Frenchy appeared last year.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
francoeur was a 4 star CB prospect coming out of high school...
so, id guess that 18 year old frenchy looked alot more athletic than last years frenchy as well
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 10, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
I'm guessing you meant QB?
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 10, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
nope...cornerback
meaning he had to be a damn good athlete
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 10, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Dayton collects fast CFers
Not so much 5-tool CFers. Although it’s not like anyone has a large collection of such players. I’m sure Dayton and everyone else would like to have more.
I think sometimes people tend to focus on how good of a hitter various prospects will be, and kind of de-emphasize defense. Defense can count for a lot.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 9, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
I think he would love to collect 5-tool'ers, they just are hard to find,
so he starts with speed and hopes for the rest. Just my own speculation (and probably some others’) that he’s not satisfied unless the CF is Andruw Jones reincarnate. So, the CF prospect has to have 70+ speed – power and average might develop, but speed is either there or it isn’t.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 9, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
It's tought to teach speed.
Maybe impossible. The Royals Academy did teach a few speedsters how to play baseball though. It’s not like Moore has wasted big draft picks or big international spending on these 1 tool (speed) type players. He has taken Dyson, D.Robinson, Gore, Richardson, Orlando, etc. all in later rounds. They are very nice flier picks.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Feb 10, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Ask your grandmother
And ask her to bake you some cookies. Her cookies are probably awesome.
by thelaundry on Feb 9, 2012 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
He is witty
You are slow
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
by KHAZAD on Feb 10, 2012 6:49 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
This is a Hummel
Hence grandmother.
On a separate note, this is a generally enlightened group. Using terms like “retarted” as a slur isn’t the sign of someone who’s in touch with the modern world. I suggest you get with the program – it’s one thing to embarrass yourself on a message board, but I hope you don’t use the same over-reactionary, small-minded behavior elsewhere.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 10, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, I am a Royals fan
One could argue that hoping for a winning team every spring and then watching a collection of predominantly has-beens and never-wases sink to the bottom of the standings is such a futile, Sisyphean pursuit that no sane, rational, intelligent person would continue to do it year after year. If that’s true, maybe I am retarded. Maybe we all are.
understandable before harper had played...
but now, i just dont see it. i mean, trout put up great numbers but he just seems so much closer to maxed out than harper does
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Easier to put up a high WAR with great D at CF instead of who knows at 1B.
by WURoyal on Feb 9, 2012 2:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
harper wont be playing 1b...he'll be playing above average RF
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
it was his first time ever playing the outfield...
and it improved as the season went along and he’s got good enough speed and an 80 arm….thats a good RF assuming he can learn to read the ball well
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
I think that's a big assumption when saying he's going to be above average.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
sounds like Frenchy, who's about average.
With his above/below average-ness dependent largely on his arm.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 9, 2012 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's related to the fact that Trout is an up-the-middle plus defensive player.
Frankly, Trout has true five-tool potential in center, while Harper is at best a four-tool player at a corner.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 9, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
gimme harper's toolset and i wont think twice about it
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
That's cool. You can have that if you want it.
That being said, you’re the one who asked how you didn’t get how anyone could put Harper over Trout. It’s not as clear-cut as you seem to want it to be, and you seem to want to devalue a plus-defender up the middle with four of five plus tools and an at least average arm (he threw 90 from the mound in HS). Yeah, Harper’s got projectable 80 power and an 80 arm (although it’s not especially accurate), but his other three tools grade out below Trout’s. Five-tool players up the middle are exceptionally rare. You may not want to ‘get it,’ but there are two sides to this debate and both have justifications for their beliefs/preferences.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 9, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
defense is valuable
but arod type hitting prospects dont come around too often….i wouldve taken justin upton as a prospect over trout too
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
Who was the highest ranked last year?
Hosmer?
Frankly I’m surprised Myers is 13 after last year. The kid’s looking at a top-10 or maybe top 5 finish if he had hit well.
His Royals Top 10
6. Jason Adam
7. John Lamb
8. Yordano Ventura
9. Chris Dwyer
10. Jorge Bonifacio
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Still a pretty solid list.
I like to see Adam and Bonifacio up there. There are a few in the 11-20 range that could also fit in the top 10. Very deep farm system.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Feb 9, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Guess he likes Cuthbert
Some people seem willing to give Cuthbert full credit for his awesome first two thirds of the season and then write off the last third as a young kid getting warn down by a long season. Others take a little more meaning from Cuthbert’s late-season nose dive. I hope Law and the rest of Group 1 are right.
He also had some nagging injuries around the time of that nose dive.
I’m not saying that was the reason, but it probably didn’t help. Then he might have started pressing. I hope that is what happened.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Feb 10, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
BTW, does anyone have Sickels top 50 rankings of pitchers and hitters?
I am compiling a consensus ranking and would like to use his rankings.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
out next week i believe
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by billybeingbilly on Feb 9, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
OK, thanks.
I know BP releases their’s next week
Not sure when baseball america has theirs out
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 9, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
I thought that was either this week or next.
Maybe next Wednesday?
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 9, 2012 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
that seems to be a lot of love for Bubba
what is it based on?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
agreed
Law’s saying he’s nearly equivalent to Myers despite never having hit a professional breaking pitch? I hope he’s right, but that sounds really aggressive. I suppose Law is not alone in his high expectations, though.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 9, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
Colon?
Not on the radar at all. Bad Dayton, very bad.

















