Salvador Perez's Plate Discipline

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 1, 2012 3:00 PM EST

Yesterday at ESPN, Mark Simon posted a heat map for Salvador Perez. It showed that Perez, in his short time in the majors, swung at a few balls out of the strike zone with many of them going for hits. Simon compared his plate disipline to Vladimir Guerrero. I decided to look a little further to see if the Vlad comparison was valid.

To begin with, it needs to be understood that Perez's MLB sample size is barely relevant. It would be nice to have a season or two worth of data, but we don't right now. One fact that is for sure is that Perez, does not walk much. He walked (NIBB) only 5.2% of the time in the minors. For comparison, Hosmer walked (NIBB) 10.7% of time, Moustakas 5.9% and Giavotella 9.6%. Perez is not much of a walker yet.

Further along in the article, Simon mentions:

Perez swung at 40 percent of the pitches thrown to him outside of the strike zone. That's a very high rate, comparable to the likes of Vladimir Guerrero and Pablo Sandoval.

As much as I like Mark (he was the person that got me published in ESPN the Mag), he is taking a liberty in the comparison. Here are the players and the percentage of time they swung at pitches out of the strike zone according to Fangraphs (min 100 PAs):

Carlos Peguero: 48.3 %
Pablo Sandoval: 47.7 %
Vladimir Guerrero: 47.4 %
13 other players
Salvador Perez: 42.8 %
8 other players
Jeff Francoeur: 41.2 %
3 other players
Yuniesky Betancourt: 40.3 %

Perez does swing out of the zone a bit, but it is ~5 percentage points less than Guerrero and Sandoval. Perez's free swinging ways is closer to a couple of other Royals, Francoeur and Betancourt.

Another observation I had from the graph was that Perez hit balls that were generally close to the zone. To see how far he chases balls out of the zone, here is how often he swings at pitches compared to the league average (20 pitch league regression). The scale is percentage decimal format (.1 = 10%) and is the percentage point difference compared to the league average. The graphs are from the catcher's perspective.

vs. LHP

vs RHP

Against LHP, he is basically league average. Against RHP, he does chase the ball 10% more than the rest fo the league off the plate. His discipline is not that bad. Now for some bad ones, here are the same graphs for Jeff Francoeur.

vs LHP

vs RHP

Perez may expand the strike zone a bit, but he is not in the Francoeur zone yet.

Finally, here are the Run Value heat maps that show how many runs are expected to be scored for each pitch in that zone). These graphs are compared to league average.

vs LHP

vs RHP

As it can be seen, Perez crushed LHP (2011 line: 0.484/0.543/0.742) in all part of the strike zone last year. Against RHP (2011 line: 0.291/0.309/0.402), he hits the ball best when it is low and inside or high and away.

With a limited amount of MLB data, Perez does expand the strike zone. The zone expansion was not to the level of Guerrero and Sandoval as it was stated at ESPN. Hopefully though he does show a little more discipline so Betancourt and Francoeur are no longer possible comparisons.

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Great

Perez’s free swinging ways is closer to a couple of other Royals, Francoeur and Betancourt.

I liked the Guerrero comparison a LOT better, Jeff.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 1, 2012 3:13 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

I just hope he can great improve on some of his defensive stats

In his short MLB stint, he had great pitch framing numbers, but his base stealers caught percentage was below MLB average, as was his PB+WP per 1000 innings. I assume those will improve. I sure hope they do.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 1, 2012 3:21 PM EST reply actions

pb+wp seems like an incredibly dumb

and pitching dependent stat….why do you give it any credibility? what am i missing? why is it better than something like cERA? isnt a shit pitching staff going to throw more horrible pitches, therefore more wp+pb?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Mar 1, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

That’s an important caveat. I think both pitchers and catchers have a role in both PB and WP. I don’t think it is a worthless metric for catchers. I think it tells you something.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 1, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

Is 30-40 games a worthwhile sample at all?

I have no idea whether it is or not. I know catchers have a ton more chances than fielders.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 1, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

No, it is a small sample

No question that all of his MLB stats so far are quite small samples of data. I’m not taking any meaning from them. I’m just saying that if he really is a good defensive catcher, those numbers (SB and PB+WP) should improve. I would be concerned if they did not.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 1, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

another thing...

how did sal’s SB attempts against compare to the average catcher? Catchers who are well known as good throwers seem unlikely to be run on as much and sal started off with a bang…you have to think teams/players saw that and reacted accordingly.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Mar 1, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

33 SB attempts in 39 games

Doesn’t seem like they were that deterred from running.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 1, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

looks like the AL averaged .98 steal attempts per team per game last year

sal was at .84…that seems like a fairly significant difference…although, maybe not

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Mar 1, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

FWIW, I calculated it by 1000 innings

MLB average as 104 SB attempts per 1000 innings. Sal 97 per 1000 innings. I don’t see a huge difference there. Maybe we’ll see it next year. So far, I’d be surprised if teams were particularly scared to run against him. I think they are going to make him prove he can throw them out.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 1, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

I hope they make him prove it.

That 1.8 pop time seems legit. Maybe I’m so used to shitty catchers that I’ve lost perspective, but the scouting reports on his pop time seem to jive with what my (admittedly untrained) eyes are telling me.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Mar 1, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions

I found it weird that all I really knew about him beofre we brought him up

was that he had this insane pop time. Then in his first game I got to see him throw and my reaction wasn’t, “well he does look pretty good” or “yeah with some improvement he might be alright someday”

It was more like “holy shit did you see that?”

Now I’m reading things here and there that some people have questions about his arm. I guess it could be the years of watching shitty catchers have ruined my eye. (If it was ever competent to begin with) But it sure doesn’t seem that way.

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KC_Satchmo on Mar 1, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't seem to me that the Royals staff concerned themselves

much with holding on runners in September. I think they relied on Salvadore’s pop time too much and got pretty lazy.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Mar 1, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

I think that

the pitchers getting lazy could be part of the case.

But I think the fan’s view of Perez’ defense is skewed towards awesome by the memory of the first game, where he picked off two guys. A game like that as a first impression kind of embeds itself in your mind.

We have talked about small sample size on offense. From everything I’ve read, defense takes even longer to normalize, so let’s watch this year at least before the negative guys worry about his defense and the positive guys call him the best catcher in the history of whatever.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Mar 2, 2012 5:59 AM EST up reply actions

I don't know about all of this questioning the defense.

It seems like I knew quite a bit about his defensive reputation before the 2011 season ever started. I’d never heard less than glowing reports. I remember Goldstein and Rany talking about him on Rany’s radio show. I remember Goldstein and Parks talking about him early on last season on their podcast when they were talking about the Royals farm system and saying that defensively he was basically ready to play in the Majors, but that the bat just needed to develop. I really don’t remember seeing anything in the past year that questioned the defensive package at all, and I do read up on the prospects fairly diligently.

I don’t know that many are questioning the arm. They’re just not sure where the impressions are coming from. It seems to me that there are many catchers who either have cannons for arms (i.e. Olivo) or block pitches fairly well (it seems Buck had that rep) or call a good game (whatever the fuck that means), but that there are very few who are reported to do all three well. It seems that The Savior does all three well, which leads me to believe that there’s little risk in the contract and that barring injury he should be worth every penny guaranteed him.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Mar 1, 2012 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

…block pitches fairly well (it seems Buck had that rep)…

Splitting time behind the dish with Olivo made him look like a ball-blocking whiz.

by kcemigre on Mar 1, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions

FWIW, I’m just trying to track down actual sources and actual quotes on Perez’s defense. All I could find from BA and BP were various mentions of good defense, but nothing beyond that. And I wanted things from outside the organization because Royals org. sources are going to hype their own players. So far others have shown me Sickels saying his defense is “excellent.” Other than that, the sources shown to me so far describe “good” or “above average” defense. Oh, and a 1.8 pop time.

It seems that a narrative has developed on this site that we can count on Perez to have elite MLB catcher defense. I just want to see if that’s true, and if so where that information is coming from, rather than just assuming it to be true.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 1, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions

That's fair.

I know you’re not attacking the narrative but rather looking for its origins. Obviously, defensive evaluation of a catcher is a lot murkier for we laypeople than it would be for any other position. I know that I had heard praises being sung about the total defensive package as he was starting last season, and that as a then-20-year-old he was being touted as defensively ready to catch in the Majors. These were reports that were validated by Yost on MLB Network during the Winter Meetings, who said that they loved him in ST. Obviously, anything coming from the club should be questioned or almost disregarded, but Kevin Goldstein saw a lot of him in the Midwest League in 2010 and generally disregards scouting reports that come from the organizations in which the prospect plays.

I started writing some other nonsense, but instead I’ll link to this Perezcentric piece Rany did last year:
http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2011/03/meaning-of-minors-part-2.html

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Mar 2, 2012 1:34 AM EST up reply actions

And it was MWL in 2009.

My bad.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Mar 2, 2012 1:35 AM EST up reply actions

If you look at innings caught

Perez saw a guy try to steal once every 10.24 innings. Pena saw a guy try once every 7.16 innings. Treanor saw a guy try once every 10.05 innings.

by BeauJackson on Mar 1, 2012 10:52 PM EST up reply actions

How did those percentages compare to Treanor

Who, in my perception, was freaking terrible.

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KC_Satchmo on Mar 1, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

Pct is almost the same

26% for Treanor
21% for Perez

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 1, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

thanks for looking it up

had no idea where to find it

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KC_Satchmo on Mar 1, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

Pitches out of the strike zone

The new market efficiency

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KC_Satchmo on Mar 1, 2012 3:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Chuckled while the old lady sits here watching Anonymous.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Mar 1, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

I wonder if you could measure the OOZ swings more specifically by looking at how FAR out of zone

For instance, measuring the distance from the center of the plate a pitch is, not just whether it was OOZ or not. They could even be added (sort of like a euclidean distance) and averaged into one number, which is a bit simplistic, or potentially graphed as a bell curve/histogram, showing the likelihood of swinging at pitches farther and farther off the plate.

(then again, maybe someone does this already)

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 1, 2012 4:37 PM EST reply actions

Thanks Mr. Zimmerman

Great work, and interesting conclusions.

by Rufus R. Jones on Mar 1, 2012 5:44 PM EST reply actions

ZiPS projects Perez to walk 21 times in 547 ABs

Will they shoot off fireworks each time?

by thelaundry on Mar 1, 2012 5:53 PM EST reply actions

just back to basics

up front I’m admitting I’m not as educated on the technical details, by far I’m lacking … but just in the fundamental sense;

The opposition hasn’t had time to thoroughly ‘scout’ our guy, just as usual, they’ll figure out what to throw at him; to get him out and keep him off the basepaths.

Doesn’t that simplify the significance of ‘SSS’ … in the next 500 PA’s, we should see his ‘eye’ fall off a bit due to him not getting the pitches they will undoubtedly notice that he hits more frequently …

reciprocally, (is that a word?) his defensive ability will be scouted as well. “They” will figure out how and when to run on our guy, and we’ll need another season or two before we really see the difference between “good backup catcher” and “HOF’er”

I’m not getting orgasmic yet, but yeah, I’m excited and optimistic.

Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.

by BillyMojo on Mar 1, 2012 6:36 PM EST reply actions