FanPost

What does 3 wins in the first 12 mean?

Looking at the last couple of years I looked for teams 4 and 8 or worse through 12 games to see what the outcomes were at the end of the season. Way too many people think the Royals are terrible this year based on a couple of weeks worth of play. Hopefully this will help some of them simmer down.

2011

First 12

Final Record

Boston

2-10

90-72

Tampa Bay

4-8

91-71

Minnesota

4-8

63-99

Seattle

4-8

67-95

Houston

3-9

56-106

Average Finish

73 -89

2010

First 12

Final Record

Baltimore

1-11

66-96

Chicago AL

4-8

88-74

Boston

4-8

89-73

New York NL

4-8

79-83

Houston

3-9

76-86

Average Finish

80-82

So the last two years there were 5 teams each year that started very poorly to this point in the season, and the average wins in those years for those teams were 73 and 80 respectively. If you think the Royals are heading for 100 losses this year you are probably wrong, and 90 is still probably more than likely going to be avoided. More importantly look at who from these groups bounced back and who went on to have a really bad year. Do you think the Royals are more like the Houston team from last year that had almost no talent to speak of, or the Mariners who had one of the weakest offenses in recent memory, or are they more like the 2010 White Sox and Mets? Basically I feel that the Royals are still a 500ish team so my expectation is that they will still win between 77 and 84 games. Also, lets look at who is currently with the Royals this year. Boston (for a third year in a row), the Angels, Minnesota, Chicago, and San Diego. If you were betting on which teams rebounded and who continued to lose who would it be? Go look at Chicago and San Diego's lineups and it will make you feel better, I promise.

We are 7.4% into the season folks. Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon are not going to hit under .200 this season. Bruce Chen and Danny Duffy are looking good. Felipe Paulino will be back soon so that Mendoza can be demoted out of the rotation. Plenty of things could still go wrong, but there is no reason to think this team can't get back to where we thought they would be this year based one bad week.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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