The Royals, Eric Hosmer, and why he could be the next Brett

Because it plays so well here and is appropriate to 2 of the sides in this matter, let me start with a quote by someone well smarter then myself. While it has been paraphrased over the years, Sir Edmund Burke said, "Those that do not study history are destined to repeat it." I prefer the George Santayana paraphrasing where destined became doomed, but that isn't the point.

For the sake of this statement, I am making the three following assumptions: 1)Forbes financial data in regards to the Royals is correct. 2) the Glass Family (David in particular) view the Royal's as a business and will act accordingly. 3) the Royals revenues will stay flat throughout the contract. We know the final assumption is false (the TV contract is up following the 2020 season), but I am using that assumption to prove this can be done in the worst possible case scenario.

In light of the recent signings amounting to over $1B (thanks, Joey Votto and Co.), it will be more painful to lock Hosmer up long term than even this time a year ago. However, I still believe they can do it in a way which will make almost every party happy (sorry, Scott Bora$, you're the one who won't be). Here it is: 15 years for $255M. That's an average of $17M per, and covers Hosmer from ages 23-37. This could be pushed to $262.5 ($17.5M per), but I will show that the $255M figure is fair. Personally, I'd prefer a shorter term deal (13 years instead), but you have to give some to get some; the Royals are giving money up front and back ends to get the middle (in other words Hosmer's prime years) at a more reasonable rate. The actual structure of this deal is not covered here. Now to cover the 'how' and 'why' my contract proposal makes sense from all 3 sides (please keep in mind the words of Sir Burke):

1) The Hosmer side. Currently, the Royals will control Hosmer through his age 28 season with arbitration. Examining "Super 2" history, Hosmer will make roughly $33M during his Royals tenure. When looking at the contract that I propose that $33 is taken into account. 255M – 33M = $222M or pretty much damn straight on Votto's contract extension. Keep in mind that Votto signed his contract at 28, however he had a more proven track record as well. However there is actually a lot more to this. The last time there was influx of cash (like the new TV deals teams are getting this year) to baseball there was a huge spending spree. After that, the FA market regressed and bottomed out about 5 seasons later. That bottoming coincides with Hosmer's first FA contract. While it may not crater as much as before, it is quite conceivable that the market for a player like him will be in the $14-18M range at that point. There is of course always the issue of injury. While a player doesn't want to consider this, thanks to the MLB players union this money is guaranteed even that should happen to him.

2) The Royals side. According to Forbes' figures, the Royals have made roughly $140M since David Glass bought them. On top of that, they have accrued roughly $300M in value*. That makes his net profit so far $440M. Even taking out the $30M for their part of the renovations to the K, that leaves them $410M. So even with the investment in Hosmer, that leaves them with $155M or so in profit. That alone makes this doable from the Royal's standpoint. The final assumption of flat revenues (which I admitted is false, but used for the point here) comes into play here. Attendance was up about 5% last year. While Hosmer is not solely responsible for this jump, he is at least in part and probably at large part.

3) The final view point is ours, the fans. I don't expect the Glass Family to lose their hard earned money to put a winner on the field. I don't think you should either, but that is your choice. But this significant commitment to Hosmer would do a lot to assuage those complaints of the past. This would be a major outlay of money and a business investment in the Royals and their future. It is also an investment in the community of Kansas City. By all accounts, Hosmer is a great ambassador for the Royals and MLB in KC. He is the type of guy that we can and should rally around.

In closing let me put it this way: the contract I'm proposing for Eric Hosmer costs him little to nothing, barring major changes in salary progression. It grants him and the Royals long term stability. It IS feasible from the Royals position and it's a win for the community of KC. Just do it now.

*Before somebody jumps on this point, YES the contract to buy the Royal's by the Glass family included a clause about donating any profits from its sale back to the Ewing Kauffman foundation. However the time frame for ownership where those applied has lapsed. David can choose to donate the profits if he still wants to, but he is no longer under contractual obligation to do so.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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