Is Pitcher Development an Eight Year Process?

Danny Duffy has looked promising when healthy, but is that all that Dayton can produce?

Dayton Moore has been quoted as saying "The Process" is an eight year timeline. He has stressed development from within, through the draft and amateur scouting. Since Day One, Dayton has also emphasized pitching, calling it the "currency of baseball." Home-grown pitching was how the Royals would return to glory, much like the days when they produced Steve Busby, Paul Splittorff, Dennis Leonard, Mark Gubicza, and Bret Saberhagen.

We are now in the sixth full season of his tenure, and yet our pitching is still in shambles. By my count, Dayton Moore has drafted 154 pitchers, and here is the only pitcher that has started in the big leagues:*

Player

WAR

W-L

ERA

Round (Year)

Overall

Danny Duffy, KCR

0.2

6-10

5.28

3 (2007)

96

*-unless you count Luke Hochevar, which Dayton sometimes does and sometimes does not, depending on how Luke is faring.

Perhaps we are being too impatient in the development in starting pitching?

Here is a list of starting pitchers with at least 1 WAR in career value, who were drafted 2007 or later.

Player

WAR

W-L

ERA

Round (Year)

Overall

Drafted out of

David Price, TBR*

10.9

53-30

3.28

1(2007)

1

College

Chris Sale, CHW

7.9

15-5

2.33

1 (2011)

13

College

Jordan Zimmerman, WAS

6.5

18-24

3.44

2(2007)

67

College

Madison Bumgarner, SFG

6.3

30-24

3.14

1(2007)

10

High School

Stephen Strasburg, WAS *

5.0

16-8

2.60

1(2010)

1

College

Vance Worley, PHI

4.8

17-9

3.10

3(2008)

102

College

Daniel Hudson, CHW

4.3

28-17

3.68

5(2008)

150

College

Tommy Hunter, TEX

2.9

29-20

4.82

1(2007)

54

College

Ross Detwiler, WAS

2.8

10-17

3.77

1(2007)

6

College

Rick Porcello, DET

2.7

44-35

4.56

1(2007)

27

High School

Lance Lynn, STL

2.6

12-5

3.24

1(2008)

39

College

Jarrod Parker , ARI

2.5

6-4

2.98

1(2007)

9

High School

Brett Cecil, TOR

2.4

28-24

4.77

1(2007)

38

College

Mike Fiers, MIL

2.4

3-3

1.94

22(2009)

676

College

Josh Collmenter, ARI

2.3

11-12

3.53

9(2007)

463

College

Wade Miley, ARI

2.2

14-7

3.51

1(2008)

43

College

Cory Luebke, SDP

2.2

10-12

3.25

1(2007)

63

College

Tommy Milone, WAS

1.8

10-6

3.59

10(2008)

301

College

Dillon Gee, NYM

1.8

21-15

4.06

21(2007)

663

College

Mike Leake, CIN*

1.7

23-19

4.01

1(2009)

8

College

Drew Smyly, DET

1.0

4-3

4.42

2 (2011)

68

College

*-drafted before the Royals had a chance to select

How does Dayton Moore’s track record of one pitcher out of 154 draft picks compare to other clubs in baseball? Here is a list of pitchers drafted in 2007 or later that have made at last one Major League start and the teams that drafted them.

Team

Pitchers

GS

W-L

ERA

WAR

Angels

Tyler Chatwood, Patrick Corbin, Garrett Richards, Will Smith

42

12-21

5.02

-1.5

Astros

Jordan Lyles

26

4-13

5.25

-1.5

Athletics

Tyson Ross

20

6-15

5.16

-0.6

Blue Jays

Brett Cecil, Drew Hutchison, Brad Mills, Mark Rzepczynski

114

45-46

4.81

2.9

Braves

Mike Minor

39

13-11

5.27

-1.9

Brewers

Mike Fiers

8

3-3

2.01

2.4

Cardinals

Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Clayton Mortensen

39

17-14

3.65

3.2

Cubs

Andrew Cashner

5

5-9

3.98

0.5

Diamondbacks

Bryan Augenstein, Josh Collmenter, Barry Enright, Wade Miley, Jarrod Parker

95

38-36

3.93

3.4

Dodgers

Nate Eovali

15

2-8

4.05

0.9

Giants

Madison Bumgarner

70

31-24

3.11

6.3

Indians

Drew Pomeranz, Alex White

32

8-15

5.85

0.2

Mariners

None

Marlins

Brad Hand, Elih Villanueva

13

1-9

5.14

0.0

Mets

Dillon Gee, Chris Schwinden

55

21-18

4.32

1.1

Nationals

Ross Detwiler, Tommy Milone, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman

166

54-55

3.41

13.3

Orioles

Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz

126

40-56

5.39

0.4

Padres

Dylan Axelrod, Anthony Bass, Cory Luebke

48

16-21

3.55

3.5

Phillies

Vance Worley

38

17-9

3.10

4.8

Pirates

None

Rangers

Blake Beavan, Joe Wieland

32

8-16

4.86

-0.4

Rays

David Price, Matt Moore

125

59-36

3.45

10.9

Red Sox

Kyle Weiland

8

0-6

7.23

-0.9

Reds

Mike Leake, Zach Stewart

77

26-27

4.38

-1.1

Rockies

Christian Friedrich

13

5-6

5.60

0.5

Royals

Danny Duffy

26

6-10

5.28

0.2

Tigers

Casey Crosby, Charlie Furbush, Andrew Oliver, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Jacob Turner, Adam Wilk

151

57-60

4.79

2.0

Twins

None

White Sox

John Ely, Daniel Hudson, Chris Sale

93

47-33

3.55

11.9

Yankees

David Phelps

3

1-3

41.1/14

1.0

*-note: pitcher stats may include relief statistics if the pitcher both started and relieved in his career. All pitchers on the list have made at least one MLB start

One could argue that since Dayton favors higher upside high school pitchers, it will take longer for those prospects to develop into MLB pitchers. So is there any help on the way?

Here are the 51 pitchers in the Top prospect lists for Baseball America, John Sickels, Fangraphs, and Jonathan Mayo, that were eligible for the draft in 2007-2012.

Team

Pitchers

Angels (2)

Garrett Richards (2009), Tyler Skaggs (2009)

Astros (0)

None

Athletics (1)

Sonny Gray (2011)

Blue Jays (5)

Drew Hutchison (2009), Deck McGuire (2011), Justin Nicolino (2010), Daniel Norris (2011), Noah Syndergaard (2010)

Braves (1)

Sean Gilmartin (2011)

Brewers (4)

Jed Bradley (2011), Taylor Jungman (2011), Jake Odorizzi (2008), Tyler Thornburg (2010)

Cardinals (3)

Lance Lynn (2008), Shelby Miller (2009), Tyrell Jenkins (2010)

Cubs (0)

None

Diamondbacks (3)

Trevor Bauer (2011), Archie Bradley (2011), Jarrod Parker (2007)

Dodgers (4)

Nate Eovaldi (2008), Zach Lee (2010), Chris Reed (2011), Allen Webster (2008)

Giants (1)

Zack Wheeler (2009)

Indians (2)

Dillon Howard (2011), Drew Pomeranz (2007)

Mariners (3)

Danny Hultzen (2011), James Paxton (2010), Taijuan Walker (2010)

Marlins (1)

Jose Fernandez (2011)

Mets (1)

Matt Harvey (2010)

Nationals (2)

A.J. Cole (2010), Alex Meyer (2011)

Orioles (1)

Dylan Bundy (2011)

Padres (1)

Keyvius Sampson (2009)

Phillies (4)

Jesse Biddle (2010), Brody Colvin (2007), Jarred Cosart (2008), Trevor May (2008)

Pirates (2)

Gerrit Cole (2011), Jameson Taillon (2010)

Rangers (3)

Robbie Erlin (2009), Neil Ramirez (2007), Joe Wieland (2008)

Rays (2)

Matt Moore (2007), Taylor Guerrieri (2011)

Red Sox (2)

Matt Barnes (2011), Casey Kelly (2008)

Reds (0)

None

Rockies (1)

Chad Bettis (2010)

Royals (1)

Mike Montgomery (2008)

Tigers (1)

Jacob Turner (2009)

Twins (0)

None

White Sox (0)

None

Yankees (0)

None

All we hear from this organization is that "pitching is the currency of baseball", and "we have the best minor league system in the history of whatever", and "Pepsi Max has fewer calories than regular Pepsi." And yet, out of 154 pitchers selected over six seasons, just one has had a Major League start.

And do things look better on the horizon? The best of the starters Dayton has drafted –Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, and Chris Dwyer – are either hurt or have majorly regressed. Others –Jason Adam, Kyle Smith, Brian Brickhouse – are much too far away to get excited about yet.

There are certainly other ways of developing pitching, either through Latin American free agents like Yordano Ventura, and through trades like Jake Odorizzi. But certainly for a small market club like the Royals, the June amateur draft is going to be the bloodline for your pitcher development.

Dayton Moore is great at finding and developing relievers. He may even be pretty good at finding hitters (although the early returns aren’t great on this offense). But the returns on starting pitching have not promising thus far. And if that does not improve soon, his process can no longer be trusted.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker