Common baseball wisdom is that there is usually a guy or two in the lineup that provides protection - an elusive concept that refers to the opponents pitching differently to the guy that bats in front of the protection.
When Billy Butler was skipped over for the 2012 All-Star Home Run Derby, it seemed clear that the rest of baseball, and many Royals fans, don't think of Billy as a home run threat. The best phrase that I've heard in regards to Billy is that he is a professional hitter. That's higher praise in my mind than being known as a home run hitter.
But therein lies the problem for the Royals - the guy who is the protection in the lineup isn't as feared by other clubs as a home run hitter would be providing protection. So just how much protection does Billy provide the Royals?
As many stats as baseball has, there really isn't a stat that measure how much protection a player provides -but we all know it when we see it.
Starting with the idea that we know it when we see it, most would say that Albert Pujols provides the most protection in a lineup. The two tables below show a comparison between Billy Butler and Albert Pujols for the years 2007-2011.
When people talk about protection they usually say that means the guy hitting in front will see more fastballs and more pitches around the plate. The theory is that the more feared the protection is, the more the opponents want to get the guy out batting before the protection. With better pitches, conventional wisdom suggests there would be a lower strikeout percent, lower walk percent and higher batting average.
How can you gauge the level of protection that Billy and Albert provide for their lineup?
The simple-minded approach is to compare how other players do when they bat in front of the protection and when they don't. The tables below show the batters who have had at least fifty at-bats in front of the protection.
The table is roughly sorted by which players take the biggest advantage of the protection. Generally speaking players do hit for a higher average and have lower walk and strikeout percents.
By this comparison between Billy and Albert, looks like Albert clearly provides more protection judging by how many players do better and how much better they do hitting in front of Albert.
A couple of interesting things to ponder:
- Guillen's walk percent was higher hitting in front of Billy - suggesting that Guillen was viewed by the opponents as the protection.
- The worst batting average with protection was Frenchy (seriously dude, how is that possible?)
- Guys that are good contact hitters and guys who can handle a fastball, improved the most with protection.
Table 1: Butler Protection 2007-2011
Royals |
|
AB |
H |
Avg |
|
W |
W% |
|
K |
K% |
Aviles |
with |
123 |
44 |
0.3577 |
|
6 |
4.9 |
|
12 |
9.8 |
Aviles |
w/o |
999 |
284 |
0.2843 |
|
45 |
4.5 |
|
145 |
14.5 |
DeJesus |
with |
297 |
100 |
0.3367 |
|
27 |
9.1 |
|
42 |
14.1 |
DeJesus |
w/o |
1689 |
484 |
0.2866 |
|
168 |
9.9 |
|
244 |
14.4 |
Cabrera |
with |
259 |
84 |
0.3243 |
|
12 |
4.6 |
|
31 |
12.0 |
Cabrera |
w/o |
381 |
115 |
0.3018 |
|
23 |
6.0 |
|
60 |
15.7 |
Gordon |
with |
279 |
79 |
0.2832 |
|
25 |
9.0 |
|
63 |
22.6 |
Gordon |
w/o |
1725 |
457 |
0.2649 |
|
204 |
11.8 |
|
423 |
24.5 |
Guillen |
with |
253 |
68 |
0.2688 |
|
19 |
7.5 |
|
43 |
17.0 |
Guillen |
w/o |
1001 |
259 |
0.2587 |
|
53 |
5.3 |
|
192 |
19.2 |
Maier |
with |
158 |
42 |
0.2658 |
|
16 |
10.1 |
|
39 |
24.7 |
Maier |
w/o |
708 |
187 |
0.2641 |
|
86 |
12.1 |
|
152 |
21.5 |
Teahen |
with |
285 |
74 |
0.2596 |
|
20 |
7.0 |
|
61 |
21.4 |
Teahen |
w/o |
1326 |
369 |
0.2783 |
|
118 |
8.9 |
|
312 |
23.5 |
Bloomquist |
with |
288 |
74 |
0.2569 |
|
13 |
4.5 |
|
47 |
16.3 |
Bloomquist |
w/o |
304 |
86 |
0.2829 |
|
22 |
7.2 |
|
51 |
16.8 |
Francoeur |
with |
105 |
24 |
0.2286 |
|
6 |
5.7 |
|
20 |
19.0 |
Francoeur |
w/o |
484 |
146 |
0.3017 |
|
31 |
6.4 |
|
102 |
21.1 |
Table 2: Pujols Protection 2007-2011
|
AB |
H |
Avg |
|
W |
W% |
|
K |
K% |
|
Lopez |
with |
84 |
34 |
0.4048 |
|
6 |
7.1 |
|
8 |
9.5 |
Lopez |
w/o |
438 |
112 |
0.2557 |
|
48 |
11.0 |
|
97 |
22.1 |
Schumaker |
with |
75 |
29 |
0.3867 |
|
8 |
10.7 |
|
8 |
10.7 |
Schumaker |
w/o |
1948 |
580 |
0.2977 |
|
169 |
8.7 |
|
248 |
12.7 |
Craig |
with |
94 |
33 |
0.3511 |
|
7 |
7.4 |
|
16 |
17.0 |
Craig |
w/o |
215 |
58 |
0.2698 |
|
17 |
7.9 |
|
50 |
23.3 |
Miles |
with |
141 |
51 |
0.3617 |
|
4 |
2.8 |
|
13 |
9.2 |
Miles |
w/o |
769 |
227 |
0.2952 |
|
50 |
6.5 |
|
77 |
10.0 |
Ludwick |
with |
337 |
108 |
0.3205 |
|
38 |
11.3 |
|
75 |
22.3 |
Ludwick |
w/o |
1236 |
338 |
0.2735 |
|
115 |
9.3 |
|
301 |
24.4 |
Duncan |
with |
265 |
73 |
0.2755 |
|
30 |
11.3 |
|
66 |
24.9 |
Duncan |
w/o |
566 |
138 |
0.2438 |
|
100 |
17.7 |
|
168 |
29.7 |
Holliday |
with |
58 |
20 |
0.3448 |
|
6 |
10.3 |
|
8 |
13.8 |
Holliday |
w/o |
1191 |
378 |
0.3174 |
|
149 |
12.5 |
|
219 |
18.4 |
Rasmus |
with |
498 |
138 |
0.2771 |
|
46 |
9.2 |
|
104 |
20.9 |
Rasmus |
w/o |
755 |
189 |
0.2503 |
|
98 |
13.0 |
|
212 |
28.1 |
Ankiel |
with |
245 |
65 |
0.2653 |
|
18 |
7.3 |
|
58 |
23.7 |
Ankiel |
w/o |
688 |
177 |
0.2573 |
|
63 |
9.2 |
|
172 |
25.0 |
Jay |
with |
406 |
125 |
0.3079 |
|
22 |
5.4 |
|
73 |
18.0 |
Jay |
w/o |
322 |
96 |
0.2981 |
|
30 |
9.3 |
|
57 |
17.7 |
Ryan |
with |
120 |
28 |
0.2333 |
|
6 |
5.0 |
|
20 |
16.7 |
Ryan |
w/o |
1050 |
282 |
0.2686 |
|
82 |
7.8 |
|
138 |
13.1 |
Note: the data was compiled using retrosheet.org event files. This table will vary slightly from official stats due to the focus on batting pairs - specifically at-bats when one of the batters ends the last inning were not included - just enjoy the data for what it is.
(By the way, my apologies to those who never wanted to read another post that included the likes of Guillen, Bloomquist and Ankiel).