FanPost

No-hitter Prediction

The problem with No-Hitters is that there just isn't enough of them to have even a small sample size to work with - the old axiom one does not make a small sample size.

But four no-hitters against the Tampa Bay Rays in four seasons is a small sample size that I can work with.

Let's review and extrapolate from the four games...

(common batters shaded)

Game 1: July 23, 2009 1pm At Chicago (Thursday Getaway)

Weather 79 deg, DP61, Hum 75%, BP 29.92 dropping, Rain 0.1"

Chicago White Sox (LHP ) MBuehrle (W 11-3) ERA 3.28

Tampa Bay Rays 52-44

G1_medium

Game 2: May 9, 2010, 1pm at Oakland (Sunday Getaway)

Weather 62 deg, DP48, Hum 70%, BP 30.06 rising, Rain trace

Oakland Athletics (LHP) DBraden (W 4-2) ERA 3.33

Tampa Bay Rays 22-9

G2_medium

Game 3: Jun 25, 2010, 7pm at Tampa (indoor, Friday)

Weather indoors

Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP) EJackson (W 5-6) ERA 4.63

Tampa Bay Rays 43-30

G3_medium

Game 4: Aug 15, 2012 12:30pm at Seattle (Wednesday Getaway)

Weather 80 deg, DP56, Hum 60%, BP 29.92 dropping, No rain

Seattle Mariners (RHP) FHernandez (W 11-5) ERA 2.60

Tampa Bay Rays 63-54

G4_medium

Pitcher Game Comparison

GB

FB

K

PC

ST

1st-St

CWS

11

10

6

116

76

19/27

OAK

7

14

6

109

77

17/27

ARI

10

10

6

149

79

21/36

SEA

8

7

12

113

77

16/27

Call

Strike

Swing

Strike

Foul

Ball

In-Play

Strike

CWS

22

8

27

19

OAK

25

5

29

18

ARI

25

17

16

21

SEA

18

26

18

15

The small sample size of four no-hitters shows the following similarities:

  • TBR had winning record each time
  • Four common batters (Upton, Longoria, Pena, Zobrist)
  • Very poor hitting club, relevant splits .240-.260 batting average
  • LHB worse than RHB
  • All four pitchers tougher on RHB (2LHP, 2RHP)
  • The ARI no-hitter has very little in common with the other three
  • Three away, day games (on getaway day in middle of road trip) were all perfect
  • Weather: 60-80 degrees, 60-75% Humidity
  • Buehrle/Braden very similar strike profile (very few swinging strikes - batters were making contact)
  • Hernandez was un-hittable, benefited from strikeouts
  • Only Braden didn't have roughly same ground ball as fly ball outs - but benefited from fly balls in OAK

The best thing about analysis based on a small sample size is that you can make it say anything you want. In this case, we can help the casual fan, who wants to witness history, know which city and game to buy a ticket to see a no-hitter - kind of like a public service announcement - you're welcome.

In looking thru the Tampa Bay schedule for the rest of 2012, there is only one game that fits the pattern of the three perfect games - Thursday, September 13th at Baltimore, and the Baltimore pitcher that fits the pattern is Miguel Gonzalez.

Setting aside the use of the term bloviating ignoramus as premature, consider the Baltimore at Tampa Bay game that Gonzalez pitched on Sunday August 5th - 7 innings, two hits.

If Gonzalez pitches the September 13th game (currently projects to start the day before), and the weather is just right, then there will be a perfect game thrown that day. Book it.

And if the no-hitter doesn't happen, at least we know that the world will come to an end in November of this year, b‘cuz the Mayans said so. Book it.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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