Sabermetric Readings: Pitching

For the few readers I didn't scare away with the title, here are a couple of good pieces of research done on pitchers. While the articles will fly over most peoples' heads, including mine at times, I extracted out the main points.

Should we be using ERA estimators during the season? by Glenn DuPaul

Money Quote:

The ERA estimators that were tested (xFIP, FIP, SIERA and tERA) all did a better job of predicting future ERA than actual ERA; which was to be expected and is the normal assumption in the sabermetric community. But although they did better than ERA, simply subtracting walks from strikeouts did a better job of predicting ERAs for the second half than any of the advanced statistics.

My 2 cents:

With so much other noise surrounding a pitcher, it is best to just look at his K and BB rates when determining how he will perform over the course of a season.

Percentiles for pitchers - by Tom Tango

Money quote:

To figure out his 10th percentile, we multiply by runs allowed [for the projection] index (70% in the case of this great pitcher we're illustrating), by 135%, ... The gap between the 90th percentile and the 10th percentile is 58% (135% - 77%) of whatever the pitcher's mean rate is.

My 2 cents:

Whenever projections begin to come, 80% of time the pitcher's (E)RA will be between 77% and 135% of the value. This should give people an idea of potential range for the pitcher's performance.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker