FanPost

The Royals - The Case Against 2013

With another losing season staring us in the face and a crucial 2012/2013 off-season quickly approaching, I thought it would be instructive and interesting to lay out both the case for and the case against the Royals becoming contenders for the 2013 season. Now, the other side of the coin...

As Royals fans, we have been subjected to unrelenting promises of the team being "two years away" for what seems like an eternity. A GM change and a renewed focus on the draft over the past several years has left us, six years later, still well below .500 and with no winning seasons in DM's tenure. Reasons why the Royals will NOT be contenders in 2013:

Star-divide

  • There has been work done showing that GM's with this much tenure generally haven't been able to get a team turned around...generally, teams with the right GM have been able to turn things around fairly quickly or not at all (I don't have the link to the story that was done here, so I apologize).
  • Every team experiences injuries, and the 2013 Royals will probably be no exception. This year it was Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Danny Duffy, Joakim Soria, and Felipe Paulino...next year it could be Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon who gut our lineup and leave us scrambling to score runs and play acceptable defense.
  • While Eric Hosmer has had a very subpar year in 2012 and might bounce back, there is no guarantee that the same won't happen to three other key cogs in the lineup-Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, and Salvador Perez. Perez's performance seems particularly unsustainable when looking at his walk rate.
  • The team has too many 5th starter types, such as Chen, Hochevar, Smith, and Mendoza to truly turn around the rotation for 2013.
  • While the Royals do appear have money to spend, there is not a lot of confidence that the Glassholes will actually agree to a significant increase in payroll to the $80 million range, which is what I think it will realistically take to make over the rotation for next year.
  • Even if the team is willing to spend more money than in the past, unless the team is willing to overpay relative to other organizations that can offer a better (or at least less risky) path to being on a winning team, it is doubtful that the organization can bring in the players it needs to compete.
  • There is not a lot of faith that, even given an increased budget, that Dayton Moore is capable of making the right moves to bring in the right players. His attempts at signing big-name free agents have been very mixed, with one spectacular disaster (Guillen) and one success (Meche), but even that was tempered by the way we abused his arm and lost out on a season and a half of production. More concerning is Dayton's penchant for spending on a lot of superfluous and/or bad mid-tier free agents that suck up valuable resources.

Because of these factors, it is likely that the 2013 version of the Royals will not be appreciably different from the 2012 version (but we're on track for 2015!).



This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker