2013 Royals ZIPs Released

I'm supposed to be league average!!! I'm supposed to be league average!!! - Ed Zurga

Frenchy is positive

FanGraphs today released the 2013 ZiPS projections for the Royals. ZiPS is one of the best projections systems available and was created by Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory. Hi Dan. Some of the highlights.

Of some interest will be how the club handles second base this year. Despite having posted just a 64 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in his first 376 major-league plate appearances, 25-year-old Johnny Giavotella‘s profile - according to ZiPS - remains that of league-average player. To his credit, he posted one of the best regressed offensive lines in the Pacific Coast League last year among prospect-aged batters.

I am a little surprise to see Johnny so high. He projects to be better than the other 2B options

Player BB% K% BA OBP SLG ISO wOBA
Johnny Giavotella 6.4% 13.4% 0.266 0.316 0.368 0.102 0.300
Chris Getz 6.3% 10.2% 0.259 0.310 0.316 0.057 0.277
Irving Falu 5.3% 10.5% 0.261 0.300 0.333 0.072 0.273
Tony Abreu 3.2% 19.6% 0.248 0.276 0.354 0.106 0.271
Miguel Tejada 3.8% 11.0% 0.251 0.284 0.328 0.077 0.256
Brandon Wood 5.2% 28.3% 0.211 0.255 0.329 0.118 0.252

Also, competition (Endy Chavez, Xavier Nady, and Willy Taveras) was brought in to test/compete with Francoeur. Too bad the has beens project t be significantly worse than Jeffy.

Player BB% K% BA OBP SLG ISO wOBA
Jeff Francoeur 5.3% 18.1% 0.261 0.305 0.413 0.152 0.303
Xavier Nady 5.5% 24.4% 0.222 0.276 0.329 0.107 0.266
Endy Chavez 3.9% 11.4% 0.249 0.280 0.329 0.080 0.265
Willy Taveras 3.5% 15.7% 0.228 0.259 0.302 0.074 0.246

The big push for the Royals this off season was with acquiring some real starters. Here is how the 4 players brought in compare to the old guard (ranked by ERA+):

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR
James Shields 208.0 7.9 2.3 1.2 100 3.2
Wade Davis 153.3 7.0 3.3 1.2 95 1.9
Jeremy Guthrie 163.7 5.6 2.5 1.3 93 1.9
Felipe Paulino 88.7 8.4 3.7 1.0 92 0.9
Danny Duffy 81.0 7.9 4.0 1.3 86 0.6
Will Smith 163.7 5.1 3.1 1.2 83 0.8
Bruce Chen 141.3 6.2 2.7 1.5 82 0.6
Luis Mendoza 134.3 4.7 3.4 1.1 82 0.5
Ervin Santana 178.3 6.7 3.1 1.6 81 0.6
Luke Hochevar 156.7 6.5 2.9 1.3 81 0.6

Some huge improvements at the top of the rotation and then it gets pretty muddled. A big shout out to Royal-Fan who stated a few weeks that Santana and Hockevar are the same.

Finally, I like to see where the pitching prospects project. These have to be taken with a grain of a salt, but a couple of years ago, the projections liked Duffy over Montgomery when everyone was raving about Monty.

Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+
Donnie Joseph 7.8 5.2 1.0 86
Nathan Adcock 4.5 3.5 1.0 77
Yordano Ventura 6.7 4.6 1.7 73
Michael Mariot 4.5 3.7 1.6 72
John Lamb 5.0 4.0 1.4 71
Jason Adam 4.7 3.1 2.1 67
Ryan Verdugo 6.4 6.5 1.7 66
Noel Arguelles 3.4 6.3 1.5 60
Chris Dwyer 5.3 6.8 2.0 59

Not a ton of love, but nice to see Ventura with a +6 K% in the majors. The biggest issue across the board looks to be walks.

Not a ton of surprises. Maybe besides some IP or PA everything, besides Johnny's projection, seem right. Your thoughts?

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