It’s time for the pitcher’s similarities from Baseball Reference. I did the hitters the other night. If I was in a keeper league, I’d keep Salvador, Eric, Alex and Billy. Now we’ll see about the pitchers.
It is harder to use the similarities with the pitchers, especially the relievers, but it is still interesting. In my keeper league, I'd keep Shield, Santana hoping he is Dennis Martinez not Alex Fernandez. I'd keep no one in the bullpen based on similarity scores, but of course, know what I know I'd keep Holland, but expecting him to not be as good as last year. I might keep Crow and Herrera too if the keeper league included holds or some stat like that.
James Shields #1 at 31 years old is Moose Haas. He also has Mike Boddicker, Kevin Brown, Chris Carpenter who were long-lived pitchers. All but two of his similarities had long good careers. No Hall of Famers, but some might get there some day.
Jeremy Guthrie doesn’t have any really good pitchers on his list at 34 years old. Chris Capuano is his 1st similarity, with Kris Benson and Mike Smithson being #2 and #3.
Ervin Santana’s similarities at 30 years old are all over the place. His #1 similarity pitcher is Brett Myers, but he has Steve Avery, Dennis Martinez, Kevin Millwood and Freddy Garcia on his list too. Is he Alex Fernandez or Dennis Martinez? Who knows?
Wade Davis is 27 and his #1 similarity is Brett Tomko with Dave Giusti and Francisco Barrios coming along behind. He’s got a couple of other good pitchers on his list including Kirk McCaskill and Aaron Sele. Ex Royal Scott Bankhead is on his list too.
Luis Mendoza is 29. His top 3 similarities are Brandon Duckworth, Jason Grimsley (ex Royal) and Sergio Mitre. Nobody very good. It was with Mendoza that I noticed that the starters all had recent similarities. The hitters usually had at least one guy from the historical period of baseball, as far back as 1871. Chauncey Fisher is Mendoza’s #5. He pitched from 1893 to 1901. He is the first I noticed from "back in the day."
Greg Holland is 27. His top 3 similarities are Troy Percival, Steve Cishek and Todd Worrell. His top 30 similarities are like his top 3, all over the place, but mostly toward the bottom level of relievers. It shows how 1 or 2 years of successful closing aren’t unusual.
Luke Hochevar has no one who was verry good at the age of 29. John Tomson, Shawn Boskie and Jason Hammell are the top 3 on his list. Former Royal Chris Haney is #7, no ringing endorsement there. Of course, this doesn’t show his improvement by being the bullpen.
Kelvin Herrera is 23 hopefully matches up best with his #4 similarity, Ferguson Jenkins. All of these pitchers and he’s the first who has a Hall of Famer on his list. Johnny Ruffin, Jonathan Broxton and Matt Caps are his top 3, with former Royal Mark Littell of Chris Chambliss fame is #6. Sorry Mark, I will never forget how my heart dropped after that homer.
Tim Collins at 23 years old has a few good pitchers on his list. #1 is Hub Pruett 1922-1932, with Roy Henshaw 1933-1944 and Jim Roland 1962-1972 being #2 and #3. Roland was a decent pitcher. He does have Willie Hernandez, Michael Jackson, and current teammate Bruce Chen on his list.
Aaron Crow is 26 and his top comparables are Dave Heaverlo, David Robertson and Casey Cox. The only good pitcher on his list is Jeff Brantley. It is here that I noticed the relievers have more older players on their lists, Crow has Claude Jonnard from the 1920’s on his list.
Bruce Chen has 45 of his 80 wins with the Royals. He also has his only save with them. At 36, his top 3 similarities are Mark Gardner, Cal Eldred and Larry McWilliams who pitched my first no-hitter when I started playing Strat-o-matic in 1983. Nobody who lasted much longer on his list. A couple of ex-Royals are on his list, McWilliams and Dennis Rasmussen. Darren Oliver is #10 on his list and he also has what I believe to the the owner of the longest name in baseball history, Calvin Coolidge Julius Caesar Tuskahoma McLish. You should all recognized Calvin Coolidge and Julius Caesar, but I’ll tell you that Tuskahoma is a small town in southeastern Oklahoma It has a beautiful 1880’s building which used to house the Choctaw Tribe’s tribal headquarters. It is worth the side trip.
Sorry about the Oklahoma history lesson there.
Will Smith at 23 years old has as his top players Franklin Morales, Joe Willis and Chubby Dean. Mike McQueen is also on his list who is significant to me as he was the 1st major league player younger than me to play in the majors in 1969 at the age of 19.
Louis Coleman at 27 is most similar to Vinnie Pestano, ex Royal Joe Beckwith and Darren O’Day. Nobody very successful on his list.
J. C. Gutierrez who is 29 went to the Angels on July 24, but out of curiosity, his top players similarities were Gary Majewski, Gene Harris and Tom Dukes. Nobody there of interest.
Danny Duffy at 24 has his top 3 similarities as Jeremy Sowers, Matt Chico and Al Leiter. He also has Ricky Honeycutt and Bob Ojeda on his list. There is some hope there if he can continue his comeback.
Everett Teaford at 29 years old has listed as Kirt Ojala, Ron Mahay and Valerio de los Santos as his top 3 similarities. Nobody very good on his list.
Yordano Ventura, Francisley Bueno, Donnie Joseph and Chris Dwyer don’t have the 100 inning requirement to be listed.
Well that is it.
It would be cool to come up with similarity scores for managers. Who would Ned be closest to? His 284 wins are right behind John Wathan and Hal McRae for 6th place. He is 3rd in losses behind Tony Muser and Dick Howser. His win-loss record is 11th right behind Bob Boone. He is between Bob Boone and Trey Hillman at wins above .500 with -45. That is 15th but includes short timers like John Mizerock Bob Schafer and Charlie Metro (I don't even remember him as the Royal manager.) He is 7th in average finish tied with John Wathan. So, shall we say his is statistically most similar to John Wathan and Bob Boone?
OK, that is really it.