MLB Trade Rumors has its arbitration estimates out for the Royals. They use a formula based on historical arbitration records to determine what arbitration-eligible players will receive as salaries. Twelve Royals are eligible for arbitration. Here is what MLB Trade Rumors projects:
Player | Salary |
Luke Hochevar | $5,000,000 |
Greg Holland | $4,900,000 |
Eric Hosmer | $4,100,000 |
Emilio Bonifacio | $3,300,000 |
Aaron Crow | $1,900,000 |
Felipe Paulino | $1,750,000 |
Chris Getz | $1,300,000 |
George Kottaras | $1,200,000 |
Justin Maxwell | $1,200,000 |
Tim Collins | $1,000,000 |
Luis Mendoza | $1,000,000 |
Brett Hayes | $900,000 |
I had Hochevar pegged to make a bit more, Holland to make a bit less, but generally that looks about what I had it pegged at. Hosmer has only two and a half years of service, but should qualify as a "Super-Two". Let's look at how those salaries fit in with the overall payroll picture:
Royals Payroll | 2014 | |||
James Shields | $13,500,000 | |||
Jeremy Guthrie | $11,000,000 | |||
Alex Gordon | $10,750,000 | |||
Billy Butler | $8,000,000 | |||
Luke Hochevar | $5,000,000 | |||
Greg Holland | $4,900,000 | |||
Wade Davis | $4,800,000 | |||
Eric Hosmer | $4,100,000 | |||
Emilio Bonifacio | $3,300,000 | |||
Alcides Escobar | $3,000,000 | |||
Aaron Crow | $1,900,000 | |||
Felipe Paulino | $1,750,000 | |||
Salvador Perez | $1,500,000 | |||
Noel Arguelles | $1,380,000 | |||
Chris Getz | $1,300,000 | |||
Justin Maxwell | $1,200,000 | |||
George Kottaras | $1,200,000 | |||
Tim Collins | $1,000,000 | |||
Luis Mendoza | $1,000,000 | |||
Lorenzo Cain | $800,000 | |||
Mike Moustakas | $725,000 | |||
Kelvin Herrera | $600,000 | |||
Jarrod Dyson | $600,000 | |||
Danny Duffy | $600,000 | |||
David Lough | $510,000 | |||
25th Man | $400,000 | |||
Payroll total | $84,817,014 | |||
Without tenders | $58,165,000 | |||
I didn't include Brett Hayes because it makes little sense to carry three catchers. So we have about $58 million (plus about $4.4 million in minimum wage players to replace the non-tenders) if we non-tender everyone - about $62.4 million. Start adding in tendered players - Greg Holland, Eric Hosmer, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Justin Maxwell - (and subtract the $400k in minimum wage salaries) and you get to $73.5 million, which is pretty close to last year's $80 million payroll which supposedly serves as our limit for 2014.
Then you start having hard decisions. How much do you like Emilio Bonifacio's stolen bases? Is it worth a million bucks to have George Kottaras draw walks once a week? Can we afford $1.75 million on the Felipe Paulino gamble? Can we afford a $5 million reliever used primarily in low-leverage situations?
Arbitration-eligible player must be tendered a contract by December 2. It will be interesting to see what the Royals decide.