FanPost

What will a Satana compensation draft pick do for the Royals in 2014?



First let’s look at the Royals 2013 draft. Although the Royals picked 8th they slightly nudged out the Twins for the 6th most money to spend at $8,290,700. With that extra money they were able to draft Sean Manaea and pay him roughly 6th pick money and Hunter Dozier and pay him roughly 16/17th pick money with the 8th and 34th pick.

In the 2014 draft, the Royals will pick at 19th, have the 5th competitive balance pick (A-5), and hopefully a pick in compensation for Ervin Santana. Now, there are a lot of variables that will affect the Draft monetary slots for 2014, but we can use the 2013 numbers as a rough estimate. A big variable will be how many free agents that receive a qualifying offer sign with a new team. Also, of importance will be where Ervin Santana fits in that hierarchy. Most of that however will only shift the money around and won’t affect total pool money rankings. In the end, looking at total pool money rankings, the number of compensation and competitive balance picks a team has will be most important. For example, if Boston picking at 30 gets 3 compensation picks, they will rocket up the rankings.

First, I’m going to estimate the Royals 2014 total pool money. For simplification, I’ll use the 2013 number of 6 compensation picks. We can then follow the Cardinals (19th pick in 2013) slot money in the 10 rounds of the draft and add pick 38 (5th pick of competitive balance draft). Finally, the Santana pick I’ll estimate at $1,700,000 as an easy round number in the range of picks 28-33. This gives us $8,293,100. This actually is slightly more than the Royals had to spend in 2013, although don’t put too much stock in the numbers after 8 in the estimate. But this gives us a starting point to look at pool money rankings.

The Teams ahead of the Royals: Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Blue Jays

The first three teams in the draft get so much more money than the rest and their first pick is protected, so it is impossible for them to fall below the Royals in draft money. The Blue Jays with two protected picks in the top 11 (like the Pirates in 2013) also jump ahead of the Royals. A loss of a second round pick for the Blue Jays can put them only a couple hundred thousand ahead of the Royals pool number. The Marlins also have a competitive balance pick.

The Teams even with the Royals: Cubs and Rockies

Using 2013 numbers, the Cubs become the 2013 Twins picking at number 4, giving them a number of $8,264,400. Likewise the Rockies are the 2013 Royals picking 8 and having the first competitive balance pick, giving them a number of $8,290,700. With my rough numbers, these three teams are all roughly the same. But, if either the Cubs or the Rockies get a compensation pick they will be well ahead of the Royals.

The Teams within 1 compensation pick of the Royals: Twins, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Padres, Orioles

The Twins with pick 5 don’t have a competitive balance pick and have a base of about $7,500,000. The Mariners at pick 6 have a lower base than the Twins but get about $750,000 extra due to competitive balance pick B-6 and are the closest to the Royals estimate. The Phillies and Mets lack of a competitive balance pick put them at the bottom of this category. The Mets even may fit better in the next category with only about $8.1-8.2 million in estimate with a compensation pick. The Brewers pick A-6, Padres pick B-1, and the Orioles pick A-2 are in this range also.

Every other team would need 2 or more compensation picks to pass the Royals, with the Indians with pick A-3 and the Diamondbacks with pick B-2 the closest.

That puts the Royals with the 19th pick actually having somewhere between the 5th to 12th most money to spend on the 2014 draft with the Santana compensation pick (assuming the Royals don’t sign a pick that requires them to give up pick number 19.) The Royals then could pursue one of three strategies for the potentially strong 2014 draft.

1) Pursue an expensive elite talent by pooling the money. This would be similar to the 2013 strategy that netted us Sean Manaea.

2) With three picks in the likely top 40, the Royals could pursue 3 good but not elite talents. This would be like drafting 3 Hunter Dozier types.

3) The Royals could feel like having the extra pick makes it worth it to go after a free agent tied to draft pick compensation and lose pick 19. Or similar, they could include pick A-5 in a trade for a right fielder or starting pitcher.

Update: With 7 of the 13 compensation picks determined, i have updated the draft money rankings. The Royals can no longer be passed by Seattle, New York, or Boston in the rankings. We can only fall by signing a FA requiring a compensation pick, trading pick A-5, or failing to get a compensation pick for Santana. The Royals compensation pick for Santana also will be the first compensation pick (now 31). The only first round pick to disappear is New York Yankees pick 18. That does nudge the Royals numbers up slightly.

1) Marlins $13.8 M
2) Astros $11.7 M
3) White Sox $9.4 M
4) Blue Jays $9.3 M
5) Royals $8.3 M
6) Rockies $8.3 M
7) Cubs $8.3 M
8) Brewers $7.57 M
9) Twins $7.45 M
10) Orioles $ 6.9 M
11) Phillies $6.8 M
12) Padres $6.8 M
13) Mariners $6.7 – 8.0 M
14) Cardinals $6.6 M
15) Indians $6.3 – 8.0 M
16) Diamondbacks $6.3 M
17) Braves $6.0 M
18) Red Sox $5.9 – 7.6 M
19) Giants $5.85 M
20) Angels $5.7 M
21) Rays $5.6 M
22) Pirates $ 5.3 M
23) Mets $5.3 M
24) Nationals $5.0 M
25) Reds $4.9 – 6.6 M
26) Rangers $4.9 – 6.6 M
27) Dodgers $4.7 M
28) Tigers $4.6 M
29) A’s $4.4 M
30) Yankees $3.2 M

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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