2013 Breakout Chances: Royals Infielders

Bow down before the one you serve. - Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Perez's future looks the brightest

Every season player projections are released and fans will continuously debate how they will be wrong. Of course they will be wrong because it is humans playing the game, not computers. Some players will do better, others worse and some will even magically produce how they were projected to perform. Today, I am going to look at how past players performed who had similar projections to the Royals infielders (outfielders, Butler and pitchers will be later).

For the projections, I am using Marcel projections for a few reasons. Marcels projections are the simpilest projections produced, but hold up decently compared to other projections. Also, they are freely available going back to 1901. With the projections, I have created a simple tool. It takes a player's projection for a season. Then, it goes back and looks for players with similar projections and they sees how each of the players actually performed.

With data, I went and looked at the Royals who are likely to see time in the infield and how comparable players (age, playing time, production) performed.

Eric Hosmer (the player's projection is first, then similar players ordered by OPS. Players with an OPS >0.050 on in the first group. +/- 0.050 are in the second group and <0.050 are in the last group)

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Eric Hosmer's Projection 2013 24 504 0.268 0.329 0.429 0.161 0.757









Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Adrian Beltre 2004 25 598 0.334 0.388 0.629 0.294 1.017
Billy Butler 2009 23 608 0.301 0.362 0.492 0.191 0.853
Stephen Drew 2008 25 611 0.291 0.333 0.503 0.211 0.836
Juan Uribe 2004 25 502 0.283 0.327 0.506 0.223 0.833








Corey Patterson 2004 25 631 0.266 0.320 0.452 0.185 0.771
Adam Jones 2010 25 581 0.284 0.325 0.442 0.158 0.767
Colby Rasmus 2011 25 338 0.246 0.333 0.420 0.175 0.753
Jeremy Hermida 2009 25 429 0.259 0.348 0.392 0.133 0.740
Lastings Milledge 2009 24 220 0.291 0.333 0.396 0.105 0.729
Juan Uribe 2003 24 316 0.253 0.297 0.427 0.174 0.724
Adrian Beltre 2003 24 559 0.240 0.290 0.424 0.184 0.714
Jimmy Rollins 2003 25 628 0.263 0.320 0.387 0.124 0.707








Alex Gordon 2009 25 164 0.232 0.325 0.378 0.146 0.703
Cristian Guzman 2003 25 534 0.268 0.311 0.365 0.097 0.676
Jose Lopez 2007 24 524 0.252 0.284 0.355 0.103 0.639
Gordon Beckham 2011 25 499 0.231 0.296 0.337 0.106 0.633
Omar Infante 2005 24 406 0.222 0.254 0.367 0.145 0.621

A nice curve of players above and below his projection, but the best hitter is probably Billy Butler. Here is a comparison of the Gordon, Butler and Hosmer projections:

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Alex Gordon 2009 25 482 0.261 0.342 0.432 0.170 0.773
Billy Butler 2009 23 434 0.288 0.346 0.436 0.148 0.781
Eric Hosmer 2013 24 504 0.268 0.329 0.429 0.161 0.757

Butler and Gordon had similar projections for 2009, but their seasons when in opposite ways. It seems like 2013 may be a make or break year for Hosmer.

Mike Moustakas

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Mike Moustakas's Projection 2013 25 498 0.259 0.314 0.418 0.159 0.732








Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Adrian Beltre 2004 25 598 0.334 0.388 0.629 0.294 1.017
Adam Lind 2009 26 587 0.305 0.370 0.562 0.257 0.932
Corey Patterson 2003 24 329 0.298 0.329 0.511 0.213 0.839
Felipe Lopez 2005 25 580 0.291 0.352 0.486 0.195 0.838
Bill Hall 2005 26 501 0.291 0.342 0.495 0.204 0.837
Juan Uribe 2004 25 502 0.283 0.327 0.506 0.223 0.833
Jimmy Rollins 2004 26 657 0.289 0.348 0.455 0.166 0.803
Adam Jones 2009 24 473 0.277 0.335 0.457 0.180 0.792
Adam Jones 2011 26 567 0.280 0.319 0.466 0.185 0.785
Alex Gordon 2008 24 493 0.260 0.351 0.432 0.172 0.783








Franklin Gutierrez 2009 26 565 0.283 0.339 0.425 0.142 0.764
Omar Infante 2006 25 224 0.277 0.325 0.415 0.138 0.740
Juan Uribe 2003 24 316 0.253 0.297 0.427 0.174 0.724
Jimmy Rollins 2003 25 628 0.263 0.320 0.387 0.124 0.707
John Buck 2006 26 371 0.245 0.306 0.396 0.151 0.702








Jose Castillo 2006 25 518 0.253 0.300 0.382 0.129 0.682
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2010 25 19 0.158 0.360 0.316 0.158 0.676
Jeff Francoeur 2010 26 401 0.237 0.293 0.369 0.132 0.662
Omar Infante 2007 26 166 0.271 0.307 0.355 0.084 0.662
Ian Desmond 2011 26 584 0.253 0.298 0.358 0.105 0.656
Jeff Francoeur 2009 25 304 0.250 0.282 0.352 0.102 0.634
Luis Rivas 2005 26 136 0.257 0.311 0.316 0.059 0.627
Omar Infante 2005 24 406 0.222 0.254 0.367 0.145 0.621
Jose Castillo 2007 26 221 0.244 0.270 0.335 0.091 0.604
Laynce Nix 2006 26 35 0.229 0.250 0.343 0.114 0.593
Felix Pie 2011 26 164 0.220 0.264 0.281 0.061 0.545

Some good players, but no great hitters. Here is how Moose's projection compares to some of the other (ex)Royals on the list:

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Mike Moustakas 2013 25 498 0.259 0.314 0.418 0.159 0.732
Alex Gordon 2008 24 450 0.262 0.332 0.429 0.167 0.761
John Buck 2006 26 406 0.254 0.305 0.421 0.168 0.726
Jeff Francoeur 2009 25 549 0.270 0.321 0.419 0.149 0.739
Jeff Francoeur 2010 26 535 0.273 0.319 0.419 0.146 0.738

It is not a good sign when Buck and Frenchy turn up as comps. At least there is some hope he can turn it around like Gordon did.

Alcides Escobar

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Alcides Escobar's Projection 2013 27 538 0.271 0.316 0.374 0.102 0.690









Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Jacoby Ellsbury 2011 28 660 0.321 0.376 0.552 0.230 0.928
Melky Cabrera 2011 27 658 0.306 0.339 0.470 0.164 0.809
Jack Wilson 2004 27 652 0.308 0.335 0.459 0.150 0.794
Endy Chavez 2006 28 353 0.306 0.348 0.431 0.125 0.779
Jerry Hairston 2004 28 287 0.303 0.378 0.397 0.094 0.775
Yadier Molina 2009 27 481 0.293 0.366 0.383 0.089 0.749
Erick Aybar 2011 27 556 0.279 0.322 0.421 0.142 0.743
Yadier Molina 2008 26 444 0.304 0.349 0.392 0.088 0.740








Jerry Hairston 2003 27 218 0.271 0.353 0.372 0.101 0.725
Alex Sanchez 2004 28 332 0.322 0.335 0.386 0.063 0.721
Yuniesky Betancourt 2010 28 556 0.259 0.288 0.405 0.146 0.692
Michael Bourn 2010 28 535 0.265 0.341 0.346 0.080 0.686
Kurt Suzuki 2011 28 460 0.237 0.301 0.385 0.148 0.686
Carlos Gomez 2011 26 231 0.225 0.276 0.403 0.178 0.679
Cesar Izturis 2006 26 119 0.252 0.302 0.353 0.101 0.655








Cesar Izturis 2007 27 191 0.246 0.298 0.304 0.058 0.601
Carlos Febles 2003 27 196 0.235 0.299 0.260 0.026 0.559
Endy Chavez 2005 27 107 0.215 0.243 0.299 0.084 0.542
Dioner Navarro 2010 26 124 0.194 0.270 0.258 0.065 0.528
Josh Barfield 2008 26 33 0.182 0.182 0.212 0.030 0.394

Again, some good and some bad. Are you catching on yet? Here are the projections for the ex-Royals

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Alcides Escobar 2013 27 538 0.271 0.316 0.374 0.102 0.690
Yuniesky Betancourt 2010 28 479 0.267 0.298 0.390 0.123 0.688
Carlos Febles 2003 27 382 0.251 0.329 0.364 0.113 0.693

Chris Getz

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Chris Getz's Projection 2013 30 312 0.260 0.315 0.340 0.080 0.654









Nyjer Morgan 2011 31 378 0.304 0.358 0.421 0.116 0.778
Nick Punto 2008 31 338 0.284 0.344 0.382 0.098 0.726
Jolbert Cabrera 2003 31 347 0.282 0.332 0.438 0.156 0.770









Willie Bloomquist 2008 31 165 0.279 0.377 0.285 0.006 0.662
Willie Bloomquist 2007 30 173 0.278 0.321 0.330 0.052 0.650
Cesar Izturis 2009 29 387 0.256 0.294 0.328 0.072 0.622
Brendan Ryan 2011 29 436 0.248 0.313 0.326 0.078 0.639








Abraham Nunez 2007 31 252 0.234 0.318 0.282 0.048 0.600
Cesar Izturis 2010 30 473 0.230 0.277 0.269 0.038 0.545
Ramon Vazquez 2006 30 67 0.209 0.267 0.284 0.075 0.550
Luis Rodriguez 2009 29 208 0.202 0.319 0.260 0.058 0.578
Willy Taveras 2010 29 35 0.200 0.243 0.257 0.057 0.500
Timo Perez 2006 31 31 0.194 0.286 0.323 0.129 0.608
Eric Bruntlett 2009 31 105 0.171 0.224 0.238 0.067 0.462

It is not a good sign when the best a person can hope from Chris Getz is Nick Punto. Now for the (ex)Royals:

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Chris Getz 2013 30 312 0.260 0.315 0.340 0.080 0.654
Willy Taveras 2010 29 427 0.260 0.312 0.326 0.066 0.637
Willie Bloomquist 2007 30 333 0.258 0.316 0.354 0.096 0.670
Willie Bloomquist 2008 31 291 0.265 0.323 0.357 0.093 0.680

Miguel Tejada

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Miguel Tejada's Projection 2013 39 217 0.254 0.299 0.369 0.115 0.668









Jay Payton 2010 38 35 0.343 0.361 0.514 0.171 0.875
Henry Blanco 2011 40 100 0.250 0.330 0.540 0.290 0.870









Sandy Alomar 2006 40 62 0.323 0.323 0.403 0.081 0.726
Geoff Blum 2011 38 49 0.225 0.309 0.408 0.184 0.717
Henry Blanco 2009 38 204 0.235 0.320 0.382 0.147 0.703
Brian Jordan 2006 39 91 0.231 0.287 0.352 0.121 0.639








Ivan Rodriguez 2011 40 124 0.218 0.282 0.323 0.105 0.604
Henry Blanco 2010 39 130 0.215 0.271 0.300 0.085 0.571
Jose Vizcaino 2006 38 119 0.210 0.304 0.261 0.050 0.564
Lenny Harris 2004 40 95 0.211 0.232 0.295 0.084 0.527
Lenny Harris 2003 39 131 0.183 0.255 0.229 0.046 0.484
Mike Mordecai 2005 38 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

What an ugly list, at least he will likely out produce Chris Getz. Sorry, no comps.

Johnny Giavotella

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Johnny Giavotella's Projection 2013 26 292 0.253 0.299 0.373 0.120 0.673









Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Chris Magruder 2003 26 26 0.346 0.433 0.615 0.269 1.049
Luis Matos 2003 25 439 0.303 0.353 0.458 0.155 0.811
Todd Linden 2006 26 77 0.273 0.356 0.455 0.182 0.811
Robert Andino 2010 26 61 0.295 0.333 0.459 0.164 0.792
Brandon Phillips 2006 25 536 0.276 0.324 0.427 0.151 0.751








Brian Roberts 2003 26 460 0.270 0.337 0.367 0.098 0.704
Andy Marte 2009 26 155 0.232 0.293 0.400 0.168 0.693
Jeremy Reed 2008 27 286 0.269 0.314 0.360 0.091 0.674
Robert Andino 2011 27 457 0.263 0.327 0.344 0.081 0.670
Roger Bernadina 2011 27 309 0.243 0.302 0.363 0.120 0.664
Dee Brown 2004 26 195 0.251 0.293 0.349 0.097 0.642








Dee Brown 2003 25 132 0.227 0.280 0.326 0.099 0.606
Brandon Fahey 2008 27 106 0.226 0.252 0.349 0.123 0.601
Ray Olmedo 2006 25 44 0.205 0.271 0.318 0.114 0.589
Alberto Gonzalez 2010 27 186 0.247 0.277 0.301 0.054 0.578
Rob Johnson 2010 27 178 0.191 0.293 0.281 0.090 0.574
Michael Saunders 2011 25 161 0.149 0.207 0.217 0.068 0.424
Andres Torres 2004 26 0



0.000

It is not really a great list of players, but there is hope, unlike Getz and Tejada. Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts both were late blooming middle infielders. Here is how their projections compared:

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Johnny Giavotella 2013 26 292 0.253 0.299 0.373 0.120 0.673
Brandon Phillips 2006 25 190 0.237 0.291 0.363 0.126 0.655
Brian Roberts 2003 26 273 0.256 0.316 0.374 0.117 0.689

With Getz, we are hoping for Nick Punto, with Gia, it is Phillips. I think the chose for the Royals is pretty simple. I am fairly confident they will mess it up.

Salvador Perez

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Salvador Perez's Projection 2013 23 342 0.304 0.344 0.477 0.173 0.821









Hanley Ramirez 2007 24 639 0.332 0.386 0.562 0.230 0.948
Grady Sizemore 2006 24 655 0.290 0.375 0.533 0.243 0.908
Robinson Cano 2006 24 482 0.342 0.365 0.525 0.183 0.890








Billy Butler 2010 24 595 0.318 0.388 0.469 0.151 0.857
Nick Markakis 2007 24 637 0.300 0.363 0.485 0.185 0.848
Jorge Cantu 2005 23 598 0.286 0.311 0.497 0.211 0.808
Matt Kemp 2008 24 606 0.290 0.340 0.459 0.168 0.799
Ryan Zimmerman 2008 24 428 0.283 0.333 0.442 0.159 0.774








Buster Posey 2011 24 162 0.284 0.368 0.389 0.105 0.757
Troy Tulowitzki 2008 24 377 0.263 0.332 0.401 0.138 0.732

Now, that list rules. If the worst case is Posey and Tulowitzki, sign me up. For comps, a young Billy Butler shows up.

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
Salvador Perez 2013 23 342 0.304 0.344 0.477 0.173 0.821
Billy Butler 2010 24 530 0.296 0.356 0.466 0.170 0.822

George Kottaras

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
George Kottaras' Projection 2013 30 274 0.234 0.327 0.427 0.193 0.754









Ricky Ledee 2004 31 123 0.285 0.393 0.512 0.228 0.905
Ramon Castro 2007 31 144 0.285 0.331 0.556 0.271 0.887
Marcus Thames 2006 29 348 0.256 0.333 0.549 0.293 0.882
Jonny Gomes 2009 29 281 0.267 0.338 0.541 0.274 0.879









John Buck 2010 30 409 0.281 0.314 0.489 0.208 0.803
Chris Snyder 2010 29 195 0.231 0.352 0.426 0.195 0.778
Greg Norton 2003 31 179 0.263 0.325 0.447 0.184 0.772
Dan Johnson 2010 31 111 0.198 0.343 0.414 0.216 0.757
Dave Ross 2008 31 134 0.231 0.381 0.366 0.134 0.747









Bobby Estalella 2004 30 14 0.143 0.143 0.571 0.429 0.714
Ramon Castro 2006 30 126 0.238 0.322 0.389 0.151 0.711
Bobby Estalella 2003 29 140 0.200 0.295 0.400 0.200 0.695
Gabe Gross 2009 30 282 0.227 0.326 0.355 0.128 0.681
Eric Munson 2007 30 132 0.235 0.313 0.356 0.121 0.669
Eric Munson 2006 29 141 0.199 0.269 0.348 0.149 0.617
Jeff Liefer 2003 29 88 0.193 0.217 0.330 0.136 0.547

Welcome back to reality after looking at the Perez comps. Not much excitement here with an old John Buck showing up.

Name Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS
George Kottaras 2013 30 274 0.234 0.327 0.427 0.193 0.754
John Buck 2010 30 305 0.236 0.310 0.413 0.177 0.723
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