FanPost

A Sportsbook's Perspective of the Royals' Chances




From 5dimes.com, here's the current odds to win the AL Central with the implied odds and true odds in parenthesis:

DET -200 (66%) (57%)

CWS +450 (18%) (15%)

KCR +550 (15%) (13%)

CLE +900 (10%) (8%)

MIN +1200 (8%) (7%)

Just to clarify, implied odds are the percentage of the time you'd have to win to breakeven at a certain payout. The true odds are the implied odds with the vig factored out of the equation. You'll see that the sum of the implied odds is around 117%, meaning that the house is making a 17% profit if they get balanced action on all sides. The true odds add up to 100% after taking out the vig.

So they give the Royals a 15% chance of winning the Central. I see it as more of a binary choice where it's either the Tigers or the Royals, and I wouldn't put DET's odds any higher than -200 due to the vagaries of the game. They are by far the biggest divisional favorite with LAA being 2nd at -120. I guess I'm giving the Royals a 33% chance of winning the division then and I'll probably buy a little KCR at +550. At that price, it seems like a decent chance to take that the Tigers falter.

Season win totals will come out during spring training. Last year KC opened up at 78.5 and moved up to 82. I believe the o/u will open up at 84.5 this season with DET around 92 or so. I'm not sure what side of 84.5 I'd want.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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