I come here before the esteemed group w/ a simple question, is it real, or not?
When it comes to whipping boys for the regulars there are only two, The Frenchmen and the Second Basemen. The Frenchmen is easily villain #1 and I think it is a generally accepted tenet here that Power Stance M2 is a close 2nd in being a totally unacceptable option for this team. I’m agree on the Popular One with his poor 2012, ST, large contract, and poor WAR.
However, should Power Stoke 1 and now Power Stroke M2 have earned the same level of disrespect w/ his performance in 2012 and beyond?
I don’t know, but I do humbly come to this esteemed group in a newbie’s attempt to add novel content by presenting this case and it is your opinions that I seek.
Data Point #1. Pre-2012. Chris Gretz, was pretty league average or below at the plate, and it is the power of this cumulative data that is very compelling. So powerful is the weight of this data, that it appears to drive nearly every conversation I see. How can KC move forward with this guy, in the 2013 contention years, when his cumulative data is no better than your typical AAAA guy? That seems to be the overwhelming sentiment I’ve seen here. Any data guy with his salt will take 4 yrs of data over 64 games in 2012, right?
Data Point #2. 2012 Power Stroke (version 1). This brought about another league average year at the plate. However, were their signs of life that were overlooked by the crush of cumulative data? Power Stroke did set career highs in OPS, a career high WAR, and a career high SLG. Did we overlook that progress of the Power Stroke? Or should this be dismissed as inconsequential?
Data Point #3. 2012 Power Stroke splits. Here is another small subtle data point that was dismissed and ridiculed by all. How could it be that when this team faced a RHP, the Power Stoke OPS exceeded the likes of Hosmer, Moose, Perez, Cain and were only surpassed by those universally recognized as consistent near All-Stars, like Gordon and Butler (and breakout guy Escobar). The Power Stroke vs RHP had a commendable .714 OPS. Not All-Star worthy, but again, was it a sign of something to come? Was out hitting power guys Moose, Hos, Perez, Cain, (and Frenchy) noteworthy? Or should it be dismissed?
Data Point #4. 2013 Spring Training. Power Stroke Mark2 is born. The PSM2 is really radically different vs the original model but was born out of the same concept, more power. Was there anything novel to be seen in Arizona? Getz led the ML roster in AVG. by hitting .450, was 2nd in Runs Scored, went 6-6 in a game vs near ML pitching equivalent and hit his 1st HR. Hitting in AZ is easier than most (but don’t say that around Giovatella) but how many guys had a 6-6 game w/ a couple of shots at hitting for the cycle? Is this too only a desert mirage like the rest of the Royals which led the league in hitting and run differential? It is a mirage, right? This, like the success KC had in AZ should to be completely admonished from the evaluative record, correct?
Data Point #5. 2013 ML PSM2. So now we delve into serious micro-data points, like 4 games. Anybody in their right mind isn’t going to draw any conclusion yet. But we only have 4 games and we are all looking for something to analyze, some new content, something small that may be a trend that we can project into the 2013 season. So just for fun, lets see what PSM2 has delivered in this Micro-season? The data shows tied for #1 in RS, RBI and 4th in OPS. What about that LH split vs RHP? .500 w/ a team leading 1.375 OPS.
This is a micro-data point for sure, like the others before it too, right? What I also saw was PSM2 trying to go for the cycle in the 8th inning, does he not know that position is only for the most skilled of hitters?
Data point GRIT. I don’t really think you can quantify this. You can say he beat the Fielders Choice attempt on Tejeda’s grounder that kept the inning alive that allowed Gordon to drive in runs, you say that the inning ending double play he started on a bang-bang play to get De Aza not allowing the runner to score from 3b on the play was gritty.
So what do all these data points mean? I of limited Sabermetric experience do not know. I again come to this esteemed and passionate group of Sabermetric experts and RR group w/ humble transparent motives and ask what do you each think of the PSM2? Is it a lofty start based on random luck to be crushed by the weight of over whelming data and should therefore be dismissed immediately? Or is there something hidden in the micro-data points that leads to a trend of something different?
So all I ask of each reader is, Is it real or not, and What WAR do you assign to 2013 PSM2?