Converting Playoff Odds to a Game Win Expectancy

It's going to get nerdy

A few days ago, in a game thread there was a discussion on how the current Royals playoff chances felt like being down by two runs with one inning to go. I got to thinking what would be the equivalent game winning percentage to a season's playoff chances, so created a somewhat simple table to find comparable playoff and game chances.

At every point in a game, the chances of a team winning can be known using historic data. For example, teams which are down two runs to start the 5th inning have historically come back to win the game 30.1% of the time. Basically, I wanted to match up the 5th inning to games played (works out 73 to 90 games played) and playoff odds to a similar game run/out state.

After several attempts, I created the following chart to match some game win expediencies (WE) to the playoff odds (embiggen).

Notes

  1. The WE data is for the Home team
  2. If there are no base/out state (ex. 12x), it is assumed to be the start of the inning (xxx).
  3. The colors match the same Run/Out states (ex. Dark Blue is always Up 4 with 0 Outs).
Seasonwe2gamewe

Don't feel over-whelmed, I will walk through it with the Royals right now. The Royals have played 123 games which would put them in the 7th inning (109 to 126 games). From Coolstandings.com, the Royals playoff odds are 14%. This value in the 7th innings is Down 3 with no outs. The Tigers playoff odds (96.6%), on the other hand, are the equivalent of being up 4 in the 7th.

While it won't save the world, it is an interesting chart to convert playoff odds to similar game situation.

Thanks to the book form of The Book for the Win Expectancy Tables

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker