When college position players are drafted within the first ten overall picks, the odds are in favor of the player eventually seeing major league service time. From 1990 through 2009, 45 position players from four-year colleges have been drafted that early and only one failed to ever play in the big leagues. Chad Green in 1996 was the sole exception. With a .978 "success" rate, college position players appear to be a safe bet. Hunter Dozier should someday play in the majors, but one might be unsure of his "estimated time of arrival." Consider those 45 players and their first major league appearance in more detail:
04% chance for playing in the majors the same year as drafted. Hunter Dozier missed this. J.D. Drew and Rickie Weeks did.
22% chance for playing in the majors either the same year drafted or the following year. Hunter has an outside chance to join Drew, Weeks, Jeffrey Hammonds, Darin Erstad, Mark Kotsay, Troy Glaus, Eric Munson, Troy Tulowitzki, Gordon Beckham, and Buster Posey.
64% chance for playing in the majors sometime within two years after being drafted. This is the common group for college fellows, and includes names like Alex Gordon, Todd Helton, Mark Teixeira, and Evan Longoria. By this reckoning, Hunter Dozier will be playing with the Royals sometime in 2015.
87% chance for playing in the majors sometime within three years after being drafted. If Hunter Dozier takes until 2016 for his first cup of coffee, he will be joining the club of guys like Michael Tucker, Carlos Pena, and Drew Stubbs. Christian Colon missed this group last season, but Christian's 2010 draft-class peer Michael Choice did manage to find a way to the majors.
96% chance for playing in the majors sometime within four years after being drafted. If Dozier waits until 2017 and Christian Colon sees a major league game next season, they will join the ranks of Joe Vitiello, Chad Mottola, Drew Meyer, and Tony Sanchez.
98% chance for playing in the majors eventually. Calvin Murray was drafted in 1992 and it took him seven years to see the bright lights. If Colon takes this long, it will be 2017. If Dozier takes this long, it will be 2020.
If Hunter Dozier does not see some time at least in AA next season, it will not be a promising sign. Only 13% of college position players drafted as top-ten-overall-picks between 1990 and 2009 failed to reach AA or above sometime during the year following their draft. The slowest only reached the A level, but Drew Stubbs did make the major league grade down the line. The one out of the 45 who never saw the majors, Chad Green, was playing at the A+ level the year after being drafted, and AA was beyond his grasp that early in his minor league career.
Christian Colon played all season in Northwest Arkansas the year after his draft, but we had him back in AA for the following campaign. Alex Gordon spent his first full professional season in AA, but Gordon skipped AAA and arrived in Kansas City less than two years after being chosen . Let's hope that Hunter Dozier at least sees Northwest Arkansas sometime in 2014.