FanPost

Regular v. Flexible: What should the Royals do at DH in 2015?

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

"The Royals are built on pitching and defense, so that’s a big chunk of the payroll for someone who doesn’t fit either of the franchise’s two main focuses. Plus, opening the DH spot would give the Royals flexibility in both their day-to-day lineups and offseason planning. Signing Carlos Beltran this past winter, for instance, would’ve made a lot more sense if he could rest his legs as the DH some days." - Sam Mellinger's column in the Kansas City Star, 3/19/2014

"Even managers who have a full-time designated hitter see the value of having more flexibility in their lineup. The Rangers, for example, were happy to have Vladimir Guerrero as their DH in 2010. Without him last season, manager Ron Washington spread the playing time around. Texas went to the World Series in both years." - MLB.com, 8/6/2012

It's no secret, there is a trend towards part-time DHs in baseball. The Royals might be propelling themselves towards following that trend after they declined Billy Butler's 2015 Option.

But, the question should be "Does this 'flexibility' help teams?"

One place you can look to help answer this question? the hitting stats produced by a team's DHs.

I will start with 2014 as an introduction (for your reference, SOPS+ is OPS+ compared to the average DH. Also you'll see the PA tot/percentage for the player with the 3rd most PAs at DH but the name of that player isn't being displayed in tables for size reasons).

tm pa ab h hr avg obp slg ops sops+ 1dPA 2dPA 3dPA 1d% 2d% 3d% r% 1dh 2dh
DET 661 586 191 35 .326 .396 .561 .958 159 494 107 30 75% 16% 5% 5% V. Martinez Cabrera
BOS 678 591 156 38 .264 .351 .511 .862 133 574 33 26 85% 5% 4% 7% Ortiz Napoli
HOU 632 567 138 38 .243 .315 .494 .809 117 487 45 19 77% 7% 3% 13% C. Carter Castro
BAL 651 597 166 26 .278 .332 .464 .796 116 385 156 36 59% 24% 6% 11% Cruz De. Young
CHW 640 564 145 27 .257 .339 .452 .791 115 319 145 117 50% 23% 18% 9% Dunn J. Abreu
TOR 647 575 150 25 .261 .337 .445 .782 112 191 141 79 30% 22% 12% 36% Encarnacion Lind
MIN 654 589 154 24 .261 .327 .438 .765 108 177 110 85 27% 17% 13% 43% Vargas Morales
LAA 654 593 150 27 .253 .311 .442 .753 104 180 132 108 28% 20% 17% 36% Pujols Cron
CLE 632 574 139 23 .242 .306 .415 .721 96 143 89 81 23% 14% 13% 50% Swisher Santana
TBR 656 576 132 16 .229 .315 .389 .703 92 212 143 57 32% 22% 9% 37% DeJesus Joyce
TEX 640 570 134 19 .235 .305 .396 .702 91 202 80 63 32% 13% 10% 46% Choo Moreland
NYY 634 575 132 18 .230 .290 .372 .662 80 312 105 63 49% 17% 10% 24% Beltran Soriano
KCR 638 576 143 6 .248 .307 .332 .639 76 449 80 43 70% 13% 7% 10% Butler Willingham
OAK 667 595 128 15 .215 .294 .343 .637 75 151 140 71 23% 21% 11% 46% Callaspo Jaso
SEA 633 568 108 15 .190 .266 .301 .567 56 215 182 39 34% 29% 6% 31% Hart Morales

Overall, AL teams used their primary DH for 46% of their PAs at DH. 7 teams used their primary DH more than 46% of the time. The top 5 offensive teams at DH were amongst the top 6 teams in PAs for their primary DH. The only teams to give their primary DH more than 300 PAs while producing below average hitting results? The Yankees and Carlos Beltran, and the Royals and Billy Butler.

The "flexible" teams produced 3 above average DH squadrons (Blue Jays, Twins, Angels) and 5 below average DH squadrons (Indians, Rays, Rangers, Athletics and Mariners).

What about a longer term trend, then?

Since 1997, the top 16 DH seasons by a team

tm yr pa ab h hr avg obp slg ops sops+ 1dPA 2dPA 3dPA 1d% 2d% 3d% r% 1dh 2dh
BOS 2013 681 587 182 33 .310 .398 .560 .958 163 575 37 32 84% 5% 5% 5% Ortiz Napoli
DET 2014 661 586 191 35 .326 .396 .561 .958 159 494 107 30 75% 16% 5% 5% V. Martinez Cabrera
BOS 2007 706 586 191 35 .326 .436 .606 1.042 159 636 48 6 90% 7% 1% 2% Ortiz M. Ramirez
BOS 2005 702 588 171 44 .291 .393 .587 .980 151 666 14 9 95% 2% 1% 2% Ortiz Mirabelli
CLE 2006 680 565 167 45 .296 .409 .600 1.009 148 543 52 34 80% 8% 5% 7% Hafner Kouzmanoff
BOS 2006 708 576 160 50 .278 .405 .594 .999 145 640 26 22 90% 4% 3% 3% Ortiz Loretta
CLE 2005 674 578 168 37 .291 .386 .561 .946 143 568 34 25 84% 5% 4% 7% Hafner Liefer
SEA 2000 690 577 187 38 .324 .425 .577 1.002 143 652 14 11 94% 2% 2% 2% E. Martinez Javier
TEX 1999 671 566 183 43 .323 .416 .604 1.021 143 547 65 34 82% 10% 5% 4% R. Palmeiro J. Gonzalez
CLE 2004 675 569 170 34 .299 .398 .562 .960 142 533 55 32 79% 8% 5% 8% Hafner Phelps
SEA 1997 699 562 177 26 .315 .440 .518 .958 142 644 17 7 92% 2% 1% 4% E. Martinez Griffey Jr
BOS 2011 677 588 181 29 .308 .394 .531 .925 141 590 30 16 87% 4% 2% 6% Ortiz Lavarnway
TEX 2008 696 565 170 22 .301 .421 .494 .915 139 416 79 70 60% 11% 10% 19% Bradley Catalanotto
CHW 2006 683 556 156 42 .281 .406 .561 .967 138 593 51 13 87% 7% 2% 4% Thome Konerko
BOS 2004 706 610 179 38 .293 .380 .567 .947 138 522 80 35 74% 11% 5% 10% Ortiz M. Ramirez
SEA 2001 702 577 176 24 .305 .415 .515 .929 138 573 51 20 82% 7% 3% 8% E. Martinez Martin

The range for primary DHs in these 16 seasons is 60% (08 Rangers) to 95% (05 Red Sox). The best DH season since 1997 for a team where no player had a majority of the teams PAs at DH? the 2012 Yankees, who gave Alex Rodriguez 26% of their PAs at DH, Derek Jeter 17%, Raul Ibanez 15% and the rest of the team 42%. That year ranked as tied for 24th best out of 254 post-1997 DH seasons.

How about the 16 worst DH seasons for a team since 1997?

tm yr pa ab h hr avg obp slg ops sops+ 1dPA 2dPA 3dPA 1d% 2d% 3d% r% 1dh 2dh
ANA 2001 637 572 121 8 .212 .277 .285 .562 46 95 94 67 15% 15% 11% 60% Wooten O. Palmeiro
SEA 2014 633 568 108 15 .190 .266 .301 .567 56 215 182 39 34% 29% 6% 31% Hart Morales
SEA 2008 640 589 130 15 .221 .273 .334 .608 58 291 82 39 45% 13% 6% 36% Vidro Clement
SEA 2012 638 574 123 11 .214 .287 .310 .597 60 321 188 45 50% 29% 7% 13% Montero Jaso
NYY 2013 650 576 109 16 .189 .276 .307 .583 62 289 78 65 44% 12% 10% 34% Hafner Wells
SEA 2010 644 582 113 21 .194 .269 .340 .609 62 221 114 100 34% 18% 16% 32% Branyan Bradley
SEA 2006 639 575 134 17 .233 .298 .358 .656 63 325 141 92 51% 22% 14% 13% Everett Broussard
BAL 2005 631 569 119 19 .209 .276 .364 .640 65 163 146 111 26% 23% 18% 33% Gibbons Sosa
BAL 2004 661 592 143 12 .242 .298 .353 .651 66 147 90 84 22% 14% 13% 51% Newhan J. Lopez
KCR 2009 648 583 122 24 .209 .281 .374 .655 67 419 68 46 65% 10% 7% 18% Jacobs B. Pena
MIN 2006 629 574 148 9 .258 .312 .364 .676 68 205 105 71 33% 17% 11% 39% R. White Kubel
HOU 2013 634 566 112 17 .198 .276 .337 .613 70 190 150 80 30% 24% 13% 34% C. Carter C. Pena
TBD 2004 649 571 127 18 .222 .304 .366 .670 70 141 117 79 22% 18% 12% 48% Huff Fick
SEA 2011 635 558 126 9 .226 .317 .333 .650 72 266 79 73 42% 12% 11% 34% Cust Carp
TOR 1999 669 610 152 24 .249 .306 .411 .718 72 197 100 89 29% 15% 13% 42% W. Greene Hollins
ANA 1997 682 595 141 15 .237 .318 .358 .676 72 175 126 90 26% 18% 13% 43% Murray Phillips

The 2001 Angels don't just have the worst SOPS+ at DH for any team since 1997. They have the worst SOPS+ at DH for any team ever. They also have the lowest percentage of PAs for their "primary" DH of any team ever. The 2001 Angels are the only team to not have a single player bat 100 or more times at DH. Here's how their DH playing time/production was distributed.

Name G PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Shawn Wooten 27 95 91 22 5 0 0 1 23 .242 .263 .297 .560
Orlando Palmeiro 30 94 77 16 2 0 0 12 8 .208 .304 .234 .538
David Eckstein 14 67 56 13 1 0 0 6 8 .232 .338 .250 .588
Glenallen Hill 16 66 66 9 0 0 1 0 20 .136 .136 .182 .318
Scott Spiezio 20 62 55 9 2 0 0 5 8 .164 .242 .200 .442
Tim Salmon 12 52 45 10 2 0 3 7 13 .222 .327 .467 .794
Garret Anderson 12 52 52 16 3 0 2 0 13 .308 .308 .481 .788
Benji Gil 14 33 29 5 0 0 0 3 9 .172 .242 .172 .415
Wally Joyner 9 31 26 9 1 0 1 5 5 .346 .452 .500 .952
Jose Fernandez 7 23 21 2 1 0 0 2 7 .095 .174 .143 .317
Darin Erstad 4 18 15 0 0 0 0 3 6 .000 .167 .000 .167
Adam Kennedy 5 17 15 4 1 0 0 1 5 .267 .313 .333 .646
Jeff DaVanon 5 12 11 2 0 0 1 1 5 .182 .250 .455 .705
Troy Glaus 2 9 7 1 0 0 0 2 1 .143 .333 .143 .476
Bengie Molina 1 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .667
Jose Nieves 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000
Jamie Burke 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Team Total 153 637 572 121 18 0 8 48 132 .212 .277 .285 .562

Yes, they had two guys with K:BB ratios over 20 at the DH position (rookie Shawn Wooten, who hit at every position he played that year except DH and Glenallen Hill, who was released in June 2001). Their most productive DH was Wally Joyner, who also OBPed .260 at First Base and was also released in June 2001. Tim Salmon and Garret Anderson also produced a little at DH when Orlando Palmeiro was unleashed in the outfield.

So yes, a DH corps that hit 212/277/285 in the same year where 2 players hit 60+ home runs. The Angels also released Jose Canseco in March 2001 in case you thought their only option involved 4th outfielders and backup infielders.

The Angels traded for Brad Fullmer in time for their 2002 Season. David Eckstein only batted 65 more times as a DH.

As for some of the bad DH squads... The 2014 Mariners had random injury-prone dudes and were so bad that acquiring a slumping Kendrys Morales improved their production from DH. The 08 Mariners fielded Jose Vidro at DH. The only teams on this list who gave a majority of their PAs at DH to anybody? 2012 Mariners, 2006 Mariners and 2009 Royals (the Mariners make this list a lot). The Royals gave 65% of their PAs at DH to Mike Jacobs and got a hitting line of 209/281/374 from their DHs. They managed to give out 145 PAs of sub-.500 OPS hitting to Jose Guillen, Brayan Pena and John Buck in 2009.

If we cover 1973 to 1996, the best DH season by a team without a full-time DH is the 1979 California Angels, who gave 41% of their PAs at DH to Don Baylor and 29% to Willie Aikens. Out of 35 seasons where DHs posted a SOPS+ above 130, 34 of 35 involved a DH making a majority of the PAs at that position. 181 of the 286 above average DH seasons involved a DH making a majority of the PAs (63%). 190 of 296 below average DH seasons involved no DH making a majority of PAs (64%).

Now, the strong pro-DH flexibility argument regarding lists showing that DH production is far better for teams with a regular DH than teams which split the position up amongst several players would probably be close to "well, if you have good hitters at DH, you play them more there and the teams splitting up a lot can't find anybody but full-time DHs are still going out of style"

So, let's see how the trend is looking for full-time DHs.

Yr 1d-pa 2d-pa 3d-pa 1d% 2d% 3d% r%
2014 4491 1688 917 46% 17% 9% 27%
2013 4925 1707 896 50% 17% 9% 23%
2012 4582 1658 949 50% 18% 10% 21%
2011 5896 1117 600 64% 12% 7% 17%
2010 5280 1298 797 58% 14% 9% 20%
2009 5531 1490 789 60% 16% 9% 16%
2008 4950 1666 864 53% 18% 9% 19%
2007 5531 1648 769 59% 18% 8% 15%
2006 4824 1615 932 52% 18% 10% 20%
2005 4453 1686 1038 48% 18% 11% 22%
2004 4321 1681 960 46% 18% 10% 25%
2003 4840 1629 1130 52% 18% 12% 18%
2002 4388 1898 1019 47% 20% 11% 21%
2001 4318 1717 977 47% 19% 11% 24%
2000 4104 1875 1025 44% 20% 11% 26%
1999 5132 1643 786 55% 18% 8% 19%
1998 5368 1764 818 57% 19% 9% 16%
1997 4999 1588 919 53% 17% 10% 21%
1996 5817 1719 962 58% 17% 10% 16%
1995 5364 1615 640 60% 18% 7% 14%
1994 4597 1023 450 65% 15% 6% 14%
1993 6192 1396 747 63% 14% 8% 16%
1992 5597 1715 872 57% 17% 9% 17%
1991 6170 1574 781 62% 16% 8% 14%
1990 4583 1901 919 47% 20% 10% 23%
1989 4263 1783 998 44% 19% 10% 27%
1988 4844 1979 1083 50% 21% 11% 18%
1987 4626 2090 1002 47% 21% 10% 22%
1986 5302 1892 983 55% 19% 10% 16%
1985 5247 1775 910 54% 18% 9% 18%
1984 5939 1936 803 61% 20% 8% 11%
1983 6069 1567 782 62% 16% 8% 13%
1982 6094 1455 811 62% 15% 8% 14%
1981 3824 908 603 60% 14% 9% 17%
1980 4044 2215 1236 41% 23% 13% 23%
1979 4783 1683 1050 50% 17% 11% 22%
1978 4701 1634 1104 49% 17% 11% 23%
1977 5110 1699 1001 53% 18% 10% 20%
1976 4086 1657 870 50% 20% 11% 20%
1975 4672 1359 724 56% 16% 9% 19%
1974 4363 1462 690 52% 17% 8% 22%
1973 5122 1316 689 61% 16% 8% 15%

Or, to put it in chart form.

DH Plate Appearance distribution in the AL, 1973-2014

So there has been a dip from 2011 to 2014. Back in 2011, the following players received 70% of their teams PAs at DH: Vladimir Guerrero (89%), David Ortiz (87%), Victor Martinez (71%), Billy Butler (92%), Hideki Matsui (71%) and Johnny Damon (87%). Also, Bobby Abreu got 69% of Los Angeles PAs at DH. Out of those 7 players, 4 are retired (Guerrero, Matsui, Damon and Abreu) while the other 3 (Ortiz, Butler, Victor Martinez) were full-time DHs in 2014. I suspect the retirements of Damon, Guerrero, Matsui and Abreu involved more about their ages than a long-term trend at DH.

You could also note that 2011 was a bit of an outlier year, but the average primary DH got near 60% of his teams PAs from 2007 to 2010 before the 2011 aberration.

So people using the change from 2011 to 2014 as a sign of a longer term trend should be aware that the only times where primary DHs made up less than 50% of PAs for the 12/14/15 combined primary DHs were in the following years: 1976, 1978/1979/1980, 1987, 1989/1990, 2000/2001/2002, 2004/2005, and 2014.

Twice, AL Teams have had two streaks of 3 consecutive years where they didn't use their primary DHs for a majority of their DH plate appearances. Here's a little bit on how those trends changed.

From 1980 to 1981, AL primary DHs went from 41% of the PAs at DH to 59.5%. Several things happened from 1980 to 1981: Greg Luzinski went from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Chicago White Sox. Don Baylor and Al Oliver became near full-time DHs. Hal McRae and Richie Zisk got even more playing time at DH. In 1980, four teams gave 55%+ of their PAs at DH to their primary DH. That number went from 4 to 7 in 1981. Ken Singleton and Andre Thornton joined the DH party in 1982. Dave Kingman arrived a few years later. The league had 4 consecutive years of primary DHs getting 59% of PAs from 1981 to 1984.

From 2002 to 2003, Oakland went from 13th to 3rd in playing time for their primary DH once they hooked Erubiel Durazo up as a DH. But the overall change in the AL didn't swing towards full-time DHs until 2007 when Gary Sheffield went to the Tigers and Jose Vidro came to the AL.

Trends are not inevitable. An AL Team could be employing Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Torii Hunter, Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista/Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Carter as a full-time DH next year or in a few years. Some of those guys will be used at DH to try and recoup some of their salary or to cover for their habit of becoming hurt too often. The DH didn't need a high offense era to find full-time DHs in the 1980s. It just needed players whose defense wasn't good or who wouldn't be playing without the position.

The full-time DH was called a dinosaur in 2012 and was called "dying" in 2010. Some of the reasoning involves DHs not getting long-term deals, as if DHs ever got long term deals at any defined time in time. In the summer of 2014, the Royals/Butler 2 week long hot streak was used as a backbone for an anti-DH column, which treated the DH akin to how partisans from one party speak about the other party. It wouldn't surprise me if some note a possible short-term trend to repeat their desire to just get rid of the DH in favor of a system used rarely outside of the National League (the only other league in the world to not use a DH is the Japanese Central League). Just because there's more strategy in games without a DH doesn't mean that the strategy is better. Sometimes NL strategy means batting Jayson Nix in a World Series game. It's 2014, The DH is here, get over it. But thats another topic.

So, we heard the story, but what about the Royals?

Should they just parcel the position up amongst guys on their bench and resting regulars?

No.

Why emulate a trend that is going to make an offense worse? The argument for a parceled DH position will involve resting various guys more. I have some reason to doubt that the problem with the Royals offense can be solved with giving Salvador Perez a half-day off. Not to mention that the Royals hitters who start the most often are well-thought of defensively. Alex Gordon will win a Gold Glove. Perez probably will. Alcides Escobar might. Lorenzo Cain wasn't allowed to win a Gold Glove out of compassion to the competition. Hosmer is an incumbent gold glover as well. Out of the 7 Royals to play 1000 innings in the field, 5 are credible Gold Glove contenders. The other 2 are Omar Infante and Mike Moustakas. I'd be surprised if Mike Moustakas had an above-average streak over a period of 80 games since 2012. Omar Infante's injuries are typically not injuries that coexist with swinging a bat (and Omar, when he's healthy, isn't really a great hitter either).

So one effect of parceling out time at DH with this current team could involve taking Gold Glovers gloves off of the field. Or having a limited rotation of possibilities mostly involving bench bats which may or may not hold down the spot.

What should they do?

Well, there'll be a few DH types getting qualifying offers. Nelson Cruz will be worth some money for a period of time. Victor Martinez will disappoint some other team.

At the same time, there's still gonna be players whose bats are better than their gloves available and in a market where some seriously think that the current trends of DH usage will hold for years, DH types could be cheaper than their value.

We can talk about specific names. There'll be free agents and players available to trade. I'm not sure how deep I should go down that wormhole right now. If Billy Butler is the best signable option, he should be signed. If he isn't and there's a signable better option, sign the person who is a better option. It's not really complex.

But when it comes to what I want out of the 2015 DH position. I want a primary DH who can credibly make a bunch of starts at the position. Like 100 or 120 starts at DH for that player without inducing much pain in the viewing public. Some DH days can be given to rest a position player starter whose bat is valuable. But if you see what works and what hasn't worked, it's a smart move to try and get as close to what has worked as you can get at this time.

You can talk about building on speed and defense to back up the idea of having a flexible Designated Hitter. But if you have 8 speedy good defender types, what does having a regular DH hurt that in the scheme of things? Does it break up a continuity of groundball hitters who struggle to reach 15 home runs in a season? are the 10 games a year (14 if you reach the World Series) in NL parks valued that much more than the 152 (or as many as 169 if we count the playoffs) games in AL parks? If KC has speedy guys who occasionally get on base, then the job of a DH-type player to knock those speedy guys in shouldn't be too complex.

When it comes to the topic of "Full-time v. part-time". I lean towards Full-time. I say lean because some people will probably insist every DH who isn't starting 80% of the games for a team is a part-time DH. After all, if you set the bar that high, it might make the non-full-time contributions look better compared to full-time DHs. When I say full-time, around 350 PAs is a nice minimum. More if the player is really good.

Do I have confidence that this team isn't gonna parcel out the DH spot to a bunch of guys? Nah. The trend, no matter how counterproductive, is the trend and the trend is tempting. If the Royals bench improves enough over the offseason to make such an arrangement viable, that'd be helpful. But I don't value flexibility over ability. If there's a guy whose best value to the team involves being a designated hitter, it's not some moral failing on his part.

Just because this 2014 team had a regular DH who didn't hit is no reason for them to go from a "workable idea that didn't work" to a "workable idea that doesn't usually work". There's no need to get too reactionary or to misplace priorities. Shop around and find someone who could be a credible option. Obviously Frank Thomas or Vladimir Guerrero aren't walking through that door. But perhaps find someone who can hit and has been undervalued by their current team.

But whatever you do. Don't start Glenallen Hill at Designated Hitter. Spiders. dude.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.