FanPost

Ervin Santana vs. Melky Cabrera

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals appear to be significantly interested in two players who have once before donned a Royals jersey. Buster Olney and common sense both point to the Royals only being able to afford one higher priced free agent. Which one should they pick?

The Royals have 3 major holes to fill in the roster as I see it. A left handed reliever would be nice but the respective FIPS against LHH for the 5 best relievers the royals have are 3.84 (Frasor), (3.22 Hochevar- only one season of bullpen data), 2.94 (Herrera), 2.00 (Davis), 2.08 (Holland). Given those numbers I think that need is extremely secondary and the Royals could get by without a left handed reliever not named Collins. So the Royals need to fill holes in Right Field, DH, and Starting Pitcher and they have about 20 million, give or take a few million as we aren't entirely sure what the payroll limit is.

Before discussing the pros and cons of each player we first have to recognize that it would cost the Royals their 1st round pick- 22nd overall. The value of this pick is about 3.1 pre-free agency WAR (spread out over all of the years of team control prior to reaching FA) and about 21.8 million dollars according to a 2013 article by the Hardball Times. Players drafted in the 21-25 range have about an 11% chance of being a 10+ WAR player and a 23% chance of being a 3+ WAR player, again those figures are not yearly but over the course of their pre-FA years. The Royals farm system is not elite by any means but is in the average to slightly above average range so that draft pick could definitely add some good talent that would improve the system but realistically only 1/4 of players picked in that region even develop to be a decent role player so the value of the pick is not enough to keep the Royals from spending on either Santana or Cabrera. For fun here are some recent draft picks in the 21-25 range- JP Arencibia, Kyle Gibson, Randal Grichuck, Mike Trout (remember this is for fun), Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong and a large population of players who never even made it to the big leagues. I looked at the 2007-2011 drafts so out of 25 players 1 became elite, 3 became pretty good, 1 is a replacement level catcher with a lot of power, and one currently looks like a decent role player. So if you define success as drafting a starting caliber player that looks like a rate of 5/25 which is pretty close to the 23% that Hardball times found through their much more extensive research.

Melky Cabrera is projected by Steamer to be a 1.7 WAR player through 588 PA. I think that projection is a little low on him as his abismal 2013 season in which he was plagued by pretty serious injury seems to weighing that projection down. But I will not be adjusting him to the WAR I actually predict he will end up with to keep consistency within this discussion. So 1.7 WAR for Melky as an everyday RF with a 116 wRC+ is the projection we will go with. However, their is one problem with using that projection as a true estimate of his value for the Royals. He is a switch hitter so he will be in the lineup mostly everyday but he will not be in the field every day as Dyson should receive most of the starts in the field against RHP, which makes up roughly 70% of the pitcher the Royals would face. Last year Melky was worth -1.1 WAR in the field, which means that if if he were to only receive about 30% of the starts in the field then his overall value should in theory increase as his good offensive numbers would add value without having his bad defensive numbers bringing down his overall WAR value. Heyman predicts he could cost around 4 years and 65 million dollars this winter, which puts his yearly average salary at around 16 million per. Melky would need to be worth slightly more than 2 million a year at that rate and while he's a good bet to do that for the Royals for another year or two his is on the wrong side of 30 and the last year or two of the deal he is not a good bet to still be a 2+ WAR player. The possibility of surplus value is very low for Melky. There is also some much cheaper options for the Royals at DH and RF. I personally have grown to love the idea of Chris Denorfia as the RF against LHP and using a platoon of John Mayberry Jr or Kyle Blanks. and a guy like Juan Francisco at DH. All of those players together would cost around 5 million total and could, if used correctly, produce 2+WAR total for the Royals.

Ervin Santana is also projected for 1.7 WAR by Steamer for 2015 over 182 innings. I also think this projection is a little light and after two strong season in a row and playing in front of the best defense in baseball again I'd predict he'd be a 2+ WAR pitcher but again not alterations will be made. The Royals hole at SP is gaping after the loss of Shields and the Royals have about 3.7 WAR to replace in the rotation. The chances of Santana or any pitcher the Royals could afford making up that hole all by themselves is extremely small so the Royals need to look for a pitcher like Santana to provide them good not great numbers and hope that Ventura and Duffy both take steps forward again in the 2015 season. Santana is looking for a 5 year deal but the Royals appear only comfortable at a 3 year level, with most projections putting Santana at around 13 million per year we are looking at a deal in the 3/39 range. At that level Santana would need to be worth slightly less than 2 WAR per year and given his recent success and relatively short nature of the deal would be a decent bet to achieve 6 WAR over the course of that deal. The opportunity for surplus value isn't great but is higher than Melky's in my opinion. There are cheaper options avaliable but unlike position players, you can't platoon a SP and cheaper, high upside guys like Brett Anderson and Justin Masterson are much riskier performance and health wise (especially Anderson) so I don't see the chances being high for them to be better options than Santana like I think the chances are high for that group of players listed as another option for Melky are. Also the shorter length of the deal gives the Royals more flexibility and less total risk.

If I had to choose one of these two players for the Royals to spend on and give up that draft pick for it would be Santana. The Royals are not going back to the playoffs without solid starting pitching and Santana would provide that. Also, as mentioned above the possibilities for getting good value to replace the players the Royals have lost is easier and cheaper for the position player than the pitchers in my opinion as there is a wealth of other possibilities for RF and DH that I did not even mention above that would ultimately be cheaper and comparable to Melky. Also the shorter deal length is very appealing to me as for a smaller market team high flexibility and low risk are always good things to have.

*Please comment on any thoughts or disagreements you may have. I'm new to this and many of you may know things that I did not even consider in writing this. Any and all feedback is appreciated

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.