Back in November I rounded up 30 insanely nerdy baseball fans and had them play General Manager for their respective team while I nerdily played agent for my imaginary free agent players. The result was the SB Nation Winter Simulation. Now that the offseason is nearly complete, I thought it would be interesting and compare our GMs results to what actually happened.
We still have four major free agents unsigned as of yet - Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, and Kendrys Morales. In our simulation, Santana signed with Minnesota for 4 years/$40 million. That is likely to be right around what he will get in my estimation. Nelson Cruz re-signed with Texas for 2 years/$30 million, a plausible number for him at this point. Stephen Drew re-signed with Boston for 3 years/$33 million, probably higher than Drew should expect to get at this point. Kendrys Morales re-signed with Seattle for 3 years $26 million, which maybe more years than he should expect to get at this point.
Here are the major free agents that have signed, compared to what our fake GMs signed them for. I have arranged them in order of their real contract, from largest to smallest. I am only counting guaranteed money (salary + buyout), not any option years or incentives.
Overall, our GMs dished out $1.785 billion for these free agents. In real life, GMs paid $1.775 billion for these players. So they weren't that far off.
I admit, I botched negotiations for Tim Hudson, Carlos Ruiz, and Justin Morneau, and are all far underpaid in our simulation compared to what they got in real life.
How did our GMs do now that we know how the market played out?