FanPost

The 2014 Royals at the 1/4 Pole v. stlfan's Projections

Every year I do projections for the Royals. You may have seen them at some point late this Spring Training. In any case, i like to check in on them from time to time to see how (poorly...?) I'm doing. Here is that check in at the 1/4 pole of the season.

Catchers


Salvador Perez

Projected

.293/.324/.436/.760

4.0% BB rate, 11.2% K rate, .307 BABIP, .143 ISO


Actual - 154 PA, .277/.338/.447/.785
8.4% BB rate, 11.0% K rate, .292 BABIP, .170 ISO

Salvy's been about who I thought - a bit more pop, and walking more. I'll take slightly better than I thought though!

Brett Hayes
Projected
.233/.274/.485/.759
5.1% BB rate, 25.7% K rate, .268 BABIP, .252 ISO

Actual - 13 PAs, not enough data

Infielders and DH

Billy Butler
Projected
.296/.370/.451/.821
10.2% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, .328 BABIP, .154 ISO

Actual - 158 PAs, .232/.291/.296/.587
8.2% BB rate, 19.6% K rate, .283 BABIP, .063 ISO

Billy Butler = Allen Craig in terms of expected vs. actual production this year. Yuck.

Eric Hosmer
Projected
.283/.339/.431/.770
8.0% BB rate, 15.0% K rate, .311 BABIP, .148 ISO

Actual - 176 PAs, .302/.341/.414/.755
5.7% BB rate, 13.1% K rate, .340 BABIP, .111 ISO

Hoz has a better average than I thought, but a worse Iso and worse BB rate. It could all very well balance out quite well by season's end.

Omar Infante
Projected
.293/.320/.421/.741
4.4% BB rate, 10.2% K rate, .307 BABIP, .128 ISO

Actual - 134 PAs, .267/.326/.392/.718
7.5% BB rate, 8.2% K rate, .278 BABIP, .125 ISO

Infante is doing a great job with strike zone recognition, but getting a little unlucky on his BABIP. Otherwise, this projection rocks.

Alcides Escobar
Projected
.256/.282/.334/.616
3.5% BB rate, 13.7% K rate, .286 BABIP, .078 ISO

Actual - 150 PAs, .285/.336/.409/.745
6.7% BB rate, 13.3% K rate, .319 BABIP, .124 ISO

This is what Escobar looks like on a hot streak! I love it.

Mike Moustakas
Projected
.242/.295/.393/.687
6.4% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .268 BABIP, .151 ISO

Actual - 124 PAs, .161/.226/.348/.574
8.1% BB rate, 17.7% K rate, .159 BABIP, .188 ISO

Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. And this is him with good strike zone numbers (BB/K) this year!

Danny Valencia
Projected
.255/.290/.441/.731
5.0% BB rate, 18.0% K rate, .279 BABIP, .186 ISO

Actual - 50 PAs, .283/.320/.381/701
6.0% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .343 BABIP, .109 ISO

Well, 2 of those singles going out of the yard and I'm right back in this t

Johnny Giavotella
Projected
.281/.350/.404/.754
9.0% BB rate, 13.0% K rate, .307 BABIP, .124 ISO

Actual - 27 PAs, not enough data

Pedro Ciriaco
Projected
.263/.280/.358/.638
3.0% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .300 BABIP, .095 ISO

Actual - 1 PA, not enough data.

Outfield

Norichika Aoki
Projected
.312/.378/.420/.798
8.5% BB rate, 8.2% K rate, .326 BABIP, .108 ISO

Actual - 170 PAs, .260/.311/.318/.629
7.1% BB rate, 12.4% K rate, .299 BABIP, .058 ISO

I'm striking out as much as Aoki (compared to normal) on this one.

Alex Gordon
Projected
.282/.350/.449
8.7% BB rate, 19.9% K rate, .333 BABIP, .167 ISO

Actual - 167 PAs, .261/.317/.366/.683
7.8% BB rate, 13.8% K rate, .300 BABIP, .105 ISO

Gordon also has a dearth of power factor this year.

Lorenzo Cain
Projected
.264/.320/.401/.721
6.8% BB rate, 20.4% K rate, .316 BABIP, .137 ISO

Actual - 79 PAs, .319/.367/.403/.770
6.3% BB rate, 15.2% K rate, .367 BABIP, .083 ISO

I did not see Cain being maybe the Royals' top player (when healthy) in 2014. He has been so far. We'll see what that BABIP does. It's currently 40 points above his career total.

Jarrod Dyson
Projected
.253/.316/.339/.655
8.4% BB rate, 16.8% K rate, .299 BABIP, .086 ISO

Actual - 55 PAs, .286/.327/.327/.654
5.5% BB rate, 16.4% K rate, .350 BABIP, 041 ISO

I projected a tiny ISO and Dyson has
Justin Maxwell
Projected
.239/.316/.446/.762
9.2% BB rate, 32.8% K rate, .326 BABIP, .207 ISO

Actual - 32 PAs, not enough data

Starting Pitchers


James Shields

Projected

34 starts, 232 innings pitched, 6.824 IP/start

1.177 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9

8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.28 K:BB

3.18 ERA, 3.36 FIP

Actual - 9 starts, 60 1/3 innings, 6.704 per start, 1.08 WHIP, 7.91 H/9, 0.75 HR/9

8.35 K/9, 1.79 BB/9, 4.67 K:BB, 2.54 ERA, 3.17 FIP

Big Game James being Big Game James, yo!

Jason Vargas
Projected
30 starts, 191 1/3 innings pitched, 6.378 IP/start
1.291 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9
6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.41 K:BB
4.00 ERA, 4.24 FIP

Actual - 9 starts, 60 innings, 6.667 per start, 1.12 WHIP, 8.40 H/9, 1.05 HR/9
6.00 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, 3.64 K:BB, 3.00 ERA, 3.94 FIP

As anticipated, Vargas getting it done with some smoke and mirrors - doing better than anticipated, though. As long as he's walking under 2 per 9 innings, he could be much better than I thought.

Jeremy Guthrie
Projected
30 starts, 180 innings pitched, 6.00 IP/start
1.383 WHIP, 9.9 H/9, 1.3 HR/9
5.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.22 K:BB
4.25 ERA, 4.53 FIP

Actual - 8 starts, 50 2/3 innings, 6.333 per start, 1.26 WHIP, 9.41 H/9, 1.95 HR/9
4.44 K/9, 1.95 BB/9, 2.27 K:BB, 4.80 ERA, 5.83 FIP

Thank goodness Guthrie isn't walking hardly anyone or else this could be much worse. In fact, even without walking that many, this could be much worse. He's giving up an average of 4 homers for every 3 starts, basically - but still has an ERA under 5, despite striking out less than 3 per game.

Yordano Ventura
Projected
31 starts, 165 innings pitched, 5.323 IP/start
1.394 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
9.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.42 K:BB
3.82 ERA, 3.31 FIP

Actual - 8 starts, 48 2/3 innings, 6.083 per start, 1.13 WHIP, 7.21 H/9, 0.92 HR/9
9.80 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 3.31 K:BB, 2.40 ERA, 3.31 FIP

Ventura has been about what I anticipated, but even better! He's been fantastic. Keep it up future Rookie of the Year - NO JINX!

Bruce Chen
Projected
30 starts, 160 innings pitched, 5.333 IP/start
1.288 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9
6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.40 K:BB
4.16 ERA, 4.34 FIP

Actual - 4 starts, 19 1/3 innings, 4.833 per start, 1.81 WHIP, 13.03 H/9, 0.93 HR/9
8.38 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 2.57 K:BB, 7.45 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Chen has not been his normal self this year. He's striking out more, walking more, and getting hit around worse than anyone else in the league right now (it seems.) Now he's hurt.

Bullpen

Greg Holland
Projected
67 games, 70 innings pitched
1.043 WHIP, 6.2 H/9, 0.4 HR/9
12.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.96 K:BB
1.93 ERA, 1.96 FIP

Actual - 16 games, 15 innings, 1.07 WHIP, 7.80 H/9, 0.60 HR/9
13.20 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 7.33 K:BB, 2.40 ERA, 1.64 FIP

All except his ERA have been better than anticipated!

Kelvin Herrera
Projected
68 games, 70 innings pitched
1.086 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9
9.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.67 K:BB
2.70 ERA, 3.06 FIP

Actual - 19 games, 19 1/3 innings, 1.03 WHIP, 6.05 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
8.84 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 2.71 K:BB, 1.40 ERA, 2.23 FIP

Herrera is reversing last year's HR luck. Let's hope it keeps up (or down as the case may be!)

Wade Davis
Projected
60 games, 75 innings pitched
1.187 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
9.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.25 K:BB
3.60 ERA, 2.98 FIP

Actual - 16 games, 17 1/3 innings, 1.04 WHIP, 4.67 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
16.62 K/9, 4.67 BB/9, 3.56 K:BB, 2.08 ERA, 1.32 FIP

The only bad thing you can say about Davis is that he's walking too many people. He's also striking out over 3.5 times as many as he's walking and has a ridiculous 32 strikeouts out of the 52 outs he's gotten!

Louis Coleman
Projected
53 games, 73 innings pitched
1.151 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.97 K:BB
2.22 ERA, 2.96 FIP

Actual - 12 games, 11 1/3 innings, 1.76 WHIP, 10.32 H/9, 1.59 HR/9
8.74 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 1.57 K:BB, 5.56 ERA, 5.31 FIP

The only thing worse than Coleman's 5.31 FIP and 5.56 ERA is his 1.57 K:BB and his 1.76 WHIP. Just horrendous, especially for a guy I thought would be a top 3 pitcher in the pen! The fungibility of bullpens, people!

Francisley Bueno
Projected
40 games, 40 innings pitched
1.300 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.14 K:BB
2.93 ERA, 3.58 FIP

Actual - 1 inning, not enough data

Aaron Crow
Projected
60 games, 55 innings pitched
1.345 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9
8.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.35 K:BB
3.27 ERA, 3.77 FIP

Actual - 19 games, 17 innings, 0.824 WHIP, 4.76 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
5.82 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 2.2 K:BB, 0.00 ERA, 2.69 FIP

Crow has either had a strange start to his year (in a fairly good way and fairly bad way at the same time) or completely reinvented himself as a reliever. I may have to follow this one up.

Tim Collins
Projected
68 games, 61 innings pitched
1.393 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
9.7 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 1.94 K:BB
3.54 ERA, 3.63 FIP

Actual - 5 2/3 innings, not enough data

Michael Mariot
Projected
20 games, 30 innings pitched
1.400 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9
6.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.30 K:BB
3.90 ERA, 3.82 FIP

Actual - 6 games, 10 2/3 innings, 1.50 WHIP, 8.44 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
7.59 K/9, 5.06 BB/9, 1.50 K:BB, 5.91 ERA, 3.10 FIP

Mariot has been okay in his start to his career - except his ERA. Nothing special, but close to my projections.

Danny Duffy
Projected
40 games, 40 innings pitched
1.175 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
11.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 3.47 K:BB
3.38 ERA, 2.56 FIP Actual - 8 games, 2 starts, 18 1/3 innings, 1.04 WHIP, 4.42 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
8.35 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 1.70 K:BB, 1.96 ERA, 3.38 FIP

My numbers were just Duffy out of the pen, but he's already started a couple of games this year. He's going to have to get that BB number down if he wants his ERA to stay below 3.4 or so....where I have him projected.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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