FanPost

Royals hitting prospect success rates

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, Chris St. John at Beyondtheboxscore.com looked at the success rates* of top 100 Baseball America's prospects using just their walk and strike out rates (min. 50 PA). For reference, he set 7.7% for the low BB% and 10.5% for the high value. For strikeouts, it was 15.4% for the low value and 20.8% for the high value. I looked at the complete list for Rotowire($$), but decided to post some Royals relevant information here.

The Royals have only two hitters in BA's top 100 list, Raul Mondesi (47th) and Jorge Bonifcacio (90th). Here is the pair's predicted MLB success looking at just the few traits.

Name Team Age BB% K% PA Successful Average Bust
Raul Mondesi Royals (A+) 18 6% 29% 232 20% 6% 74%
Jorge Bonifacio Royals (AA) 21 9% 24% 320 4% 4% 92%

Bonifacio low walk rate in AA and high strikeout (sound familiar?) will limit his upside. Mondesi will drop down to the lower success rate as he moves up to AA.

Even though the K%BB% success rate information is not applicable to non-ranked prospects, I went ahead and ran the information on all minor leaguers. I ranked the players by lowest to highest bust rate.

Name Team Age BB% K% PA Successful Average Bust
Cameron Gallagher Royals (A+) 21 10% 13% 194 28% 20% 52%
Dominique Taylor Royals (A) 21 2% 15% 242 23% 21% 56%
Ramon Torres Royals (A) 21 5% 12% 288 23% 21% 56%
Samir Duenez Royals (A) 18 5% 13% 149 23% 21% 56%
Michael Antonio Royals (A) 22 10% 14% 128 30% 14% 57%
Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado Royals (A) 19 4% 20% 298 19% 17% 64%
Carlos Garcia Royals (A) 22 6% 17% 142 19% 17% 64%
Frank Schwindel Royals (A) 22 4% 19% 251 19% 17% 64%
Humberto Arteaga Royals (A) 20 2% 18% 273 19% 17% 64%
Mauricio Ramos Royals (A) 22 7% 17% 208 19% 17% 64%
Christian Colon Royals (AAA) 25 8% 9% 319 20% 14% 66%
Johnny Giavotella Royals (AAA) 26 9% 10% 232 20% 14% 66%
Whit Merrifield Royals (AA) 25 12% 17% 190 24% 8% 67%
Brian Bocock Royals (AAA) 29 10% 19% 177 17% 17% 67%
Chad Johnson Royals (A) 20 15% 39% 214 21% 11% 68%
Ethan Chapman Royals (AA) 24 11% 24% 173 21% 10% 69%
Lane Adams Royals (AA) 24 11% 22% 321 21% 10% 69%
Max Ramirez Royals (AA) 29 11% 29% 82 21% 10% 69%
Carlos Peguero Royals (AAA) 27 12% 34% 190 23% 6% 70%
Jack Lopez Royals (A+) 21 5% 15% 266 14% 13% 73%
Zane Evans Royals (A+) 22 8% 20% 229 21% 6% 73%
Angel Franco Royals (AA) 24 8% 17% 154 20% 6% 73%
Cheslor Cuthbert Royals (AA) 21 9% 19% 270 20% 6% 73%
Micah Gibbs Royals (AA) 25 8% 20% 99 20% 6% 73%
Juan Graterol Royals (AA) 25 3% 12% 152 17% 9% 74%
Cody Stubbs Royals (A+) 23 7% 32% 177 20% 6% 74%
Daniel Rockett Royals (A+) 23 6% 24% 212 20% 6% 74%
Terrance Gore Royals (A+) 23 7% 25% 197 20% 6% 74%
Hunter Dozier Royals (A+) 22 13% 25% 267 15% 7% 78%
Kenneth Diekroeger Royals (A+) 23 11% 25% 158 15% 7% 78%
Bubba Starling Royals (A+) 21 9% 33% 314 17% 4% 78%
Johermyn Chavez Royals (A+) 25 8% 27% 145 17% 4% 78%
Mark Donato Royals (A+) 22 8% 24% 145 17% 4% 78%
Michael Antonio Royals (A+) 22 5% 17% 125 9% 9% 81%
Francisco Pena Royals (AAA) 24 5% 18% 169 10% 10% 81%
Paulo Orlando Royals (AAA) 28 5% 17% 307 10% 10% 81%
Brett Eibner Royals (AAA) 25 10% 28% 309 10% 7% 83%
Jesus Flores Royals (AAA) 29 9% 23% 126 10% 7% 83%
Dexter Kjerstad Royals (A) 22 4% 33% 91 7% 10% 83%
Elier Hernandez Royals (A) 19 5% 23% 206 7% 10% 83%
Fred Ford Royals (A) 22 10% 37% 262 11% 5% 84%
Brian Fletcher Royals (AAA) 25 6% 33% 132 9% 3% 88%
Jason Donald Royals (AAA) 29 4% 27% 85 9% 3% 88%
Jimmy Paredes Royals (AAA) 25 3% 27% 207 9% 3% 88%
Justin Maxwell Royals (AAA) 30 6% 32% 106 9% 3% 88%
Matt Fields Royals (AAA) 28 7% 33% 272 9% 3% 88%
Melky Mesa Royals (AAA) 27 5% 35% 81 9% 3% 88%
Pedro Ciriaco Royals (AAA) 28 5% 23% 66 9% 3% 88%
Edinson Rincon Royals (AA) 23 7% 24% 144 7% 4% 89%
Mark Threlkeld Royals (AA) 24 7% 28% 237 7% 4% 89%
Orlando Caxito Royals (AA) 22 7% 24% 164 7% 4% 89%
Parker Morin Royals (AA) 22 4% 26% 84 7% 4% 89%
Whit Merrifield Royals (AAA) 25 3% 14% 58 7% 4% 90%
Jared Schlehuber Royals (AA) 25 9% 30% 180 4% 4% 92%
Justin Trapp Royals (AA) 23 9% 23% 240 4% 4% 92%

  • My prospect man crush, Mr. Gallagher, shows up at the top ... as it should be.
  • Hunter Dozier's K% is being to creep up. It would be nice if he could suppress it.

The long list should be taken with a grain of salt, but remember if the success rates are for top 100 prospects, these hitters will have an even tougher road getting to the majors.

* He had three categories, Productive, Average and Bust. and here is his description of each.

0.01 Batting runs should be Batting runs per plate appearance, I've fixed that up above. Productive players have at least 1500 MLB PAs with more than 0.01 batting runs per PA, average players are 1,500 MLB PAs with 0 to 0.01 batting runs per PA, and busts are fewer than 0 batting runs per PA or fewer than 1500 MLB PAs.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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