FanPost

The 2014 Royals at the 1/2 Pole v. stlfan's Projections

So when I come over to Royals' Review and make foolish predictions every year on how well the Royals will hit/pitch - I like to see how well or poorly I'm doing periodically throughout the year. In case you missed it, here are the initial projections back in March and here was my quarter pole update. Now, we're 1/2 of the way through the 2014 baseball season and I get to embarrass myself again. To the update:

Catchers


Salvador Perez

Projected

.293/.324/.436/.760

4.0% BB rate, 11.2% K rate, .307 BABIP, .143 ISO


Actual - 295 PA, .284/.332/.444/.776
6.1% BB rate, 11.5% K rate, .297 BABIP, .160 ISO

Salvy's been about who I thought - a bit more pop, and walking more. I'll take slightly better than I thought though!

Brett Hayes
Projected
.233/.274/.485/.759
5.1% BB rate, 25.7% K rate, .268 BABIP, .252 ISO

Actual - 39 PAs, .105/.128/.184/.312
2.6% BB rate, 17.9% K rate, .100 BABIP, .079 ISO

Hayes has been horrendous when hitting this year. I guess sitting this much isn't good for his bat - but you have to have Sal out there whenever he's healthy and feeling okay.

Infielders and DH

Billy Butler
Projected
.296/.370/.451/.821
10.2% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, .328 BABIP, .154 ISO

Actual - 327 PAs, .277/.333/.356/.689
8.3% BB rate, 16.8% K rate, .326 BABIP, .079 ISO

What's scary is that Billy's BABIP has come way up to about what I predicted, but his BB rate is still way low, his average, OBP, and SLG are still way low, and his ISO is just over HALF of what I projected. Not a good first half for Country Breakfast.

Eric Hosmer
Projected
.283/.339/.431/.770
8.0% BB rate, 15.0% K rate, .311 BABIP, .148 ISO

Actual - 360 PAs, .246/.286/.344/.630
5.3% BB rate, 16.9% K rate, .285 BABIP, .099 ISO

Hoz has really cooled off since the first half. He's in a major slump that has dropped him WELL below where I had projected and even lower than he was in just the first quarter this season. He looks absolutely lost up there.

Omar Infante
Projected
.293/.320/.421/.741
4.4% BB rate, 10.2% K rate, .307 BABIP, .128 ISO

Actual - 267 PAs, .251/.298/.366/.664
6.4% BB rate, 11.6% K rate, .265 BABIP, .115 ISO

Infante's strike zone recognition was great to start the year, but has dropped back down to what I was expecting - and slightly below in terms of getting on base.

Alcides Escobar
Projected
.256/.282/.334/.616
3.5% BB rate, 13.7% K rate, .286 BABIP, .078 ISO

Actual - 310 PAs, .292/.334/.401/.736
4.8% BB rate, 13.5% K rate, .335 BABIP, .109 ISO

While he dropped a bit on the ISO from the first quarter, he really has played well this year. It might be more than just a hot streak. Last year he should have batted 8th or 9th for good reason. This year, it might be smart to lead him off. What a difference a year makes.

Mike Moustakas
Projected
.242/.295/.393/.687
6.4% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .268 BABIP, .151 ISO

Actual - 225 PAs, .176/.241/.353/.594
8.0% BB rate, 15.6% K rate, .172 BABIP, .176 ISO

Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. And this is him with good strike zone numbers (BB/K) this year! But better than the first quarter of the season, if you can believe it.

Danny Valencia
Projected
.255/.290/.441/.731
5.0% BB rate, 18.0% K rate, .279 BABIP, .186 ISO

Actual - 89 PAs, .280/.326/.366/.692
6.7% BB rate, 23.6% K rate, .361 BABIP, .085 ISO

Valencia is still hitting at a higher rate and having a better BB rate than I thought - but his power numbers have been sapped.

Johnny Giavotella
Projected
.281/.350/.404/.754
9.0% BB rate, 13.0% K rate, .307 BABIP, .124 ISO

Actual - 37 PAs, .176/.216/.265/.481
2.7% BB rate, 13.5% K rate, .172 BABIP, .088 ISO

Pedro Ciriaco
Projected
.263/.280/.358/.638
3.0% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .300 BABIP, .095 ISO

Actual - 49 PA, .213/.229/.255/.484
0.0% BB rate, 18.4% K rate, .263 BABIP, .043 ISO

Not pretty for Ciriaco either.

Outfield

Norichika Aoki
Projected
.312/.378/.420/.798
8.5% BB rate, 8.2% K rate, .326 BABIP, .108 ISO

Actual - 292 PAs, .263/.326/.324/.651
7.2% BB rate, 10.3% K rate, .296 BABIP, .061 ISO

Aoki got slightly better from the first quarter, but just barely. He's not nearly as good as I thought he would be - especially with the spacious park.

Alex Gordon
Projected
.282/.350/.449/.799
8.7% BB rate, 19.9% K rate, .333 BABIP, .167 ISO

Actual - 337 PAs, .274/.356/.439/.795
9.8% BB rate, 17.2% K rate, .312 BABIP, .166 ISO

Gordon is what I thought he is.

Lorenzo Cain
Projected
.264/.320/.401/.721
6.8% BB rate, 20.4% K rate, .316 BABIP, .137 ISO

Actual - 226 PAs, .322/.358/.450/.809
4.9% BB rate, 19.5% K rate, .392 BABIP, .128 ISO

Cain is rocking it. I love being wrong in this direction!

Jarrod Dyson
Projected
.253/.316/.339/.655
8.4% BB rate, 16.8% K rate, .299 BABIP, .086 ISO

Actual - 131 PAs, .293/.346/.336/.683
7.6% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .347 BABIP, 043 ISO

I have no reason to believe that Dyson is going to continue to have a BABIP of nearly .350 when he's always been down closer to .300 in his career - except that he is the fastest guy on a very fast team. He's got a shot at. There's a reason he's starting over the player they traded for - Aoki.

Justin Maxwell
Projected
.239/.316/.446/.762
9.2% BB rate, 32.8% K rate, .326 BABIP, .207 ISO

Actual - 45 PAs, sent down.

Starting Pitchers


James Shields

Projected

34 starts, 232 innings pitched, 6.824 IP/start

1.177 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9

8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.28 K:BB

3.18 ERA, 3.36 FIP

Actual - 17 starts, 111 2/3 innings, 6.569 per start, 1.29 WHIP, 9.67 H/9, 1.21 HR/9

7.01 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 3.63 K:BB, 3.79 ERA, 4.12 FIP

And James Shields is falling apart...ruh roh.

Jason Vargas
Projected
30 starts, 191 1/3 innings pitched, 6.378 IP/start
1.291 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9
6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.41 K:BB
4.00 ERA, 4.24 FIP

Actual - 17 starts, 112 1/3 innings, 6.608 per start, 1.25 WHIP, 9.21 H/9, 1.12 HR/9
5.93 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 2.96 K:BB, 3.53 ERA, 4.21 FIP

Vargas is walking less than I thought he would, but still has a FIP around where I thought - albeit with a much lower ERA.

Jeremy Guthrie
Projected
30 starts, 180 innings pitched, 6.00 IP/start
1.383 WHIP, 9.9 H/9, 1.3 HR/9
5.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.22 K:BB
4.25 ERA, 4.53 FIP

Actual - 17 starts, 112 1/3 innings, 6.608 per start, 1.28 WHIP, 8.81 H/9, 1.28 HR/9
5.45 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, 2.52 K:BB, 3.69 ERA, 4.68 FIP

Guthrie and Vargas both have a much lower ERA than FIP, but Guthrie's is so far below that I'm afraid of what his ERA will look like when (read: if) he blows up.

Yordano Ventura
Projected
31 starts, 165 innings pitched, 5.323 IP/start
1.394 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
9.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.42 K:BB
3.82 ERA, 3.31 FIP

Actual - 15 starts, 88 1/3 innings, 5.889 per start, 1.27 WHIP, 8.86 H/9, 0.71 HR/9
7.74 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 3.04 K:BB, 3.26 ERA, 3.30 FIP

Ventura has been about what I anticipated, but went through a little "dead arm" period. He struck out way less for a bit there, but also walked way less, keeping him quite valuable.

Bruce Chen
Projected
30 starts, 160 innings pitched, 5.333 IP/start
1.288 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9
6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.40 K:BB
4.16 ERA, 4.34 FIP

Actual - 5 games, 4 starts, 24 1/3 innings, 1.73 WHIP, 12.21 H/9, 0.74 HR/9
9.62 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 2.89 K:BB, 7.40 ERA, 3.14 FIP

Hurt.

Danny Duffy
Projected
40 games, 40 innings pitched
1.175 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
11.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 3.47 K:BB
3.38 ERA, 2.56 FIP Actual - 16 games, 10 starts, 67 innings, 1.07 WHIP, 6.04 H/9, 0.67 HR/9
6.99 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 1.93 K:BB, 2.69 ERA, 3.86 FIP

Duffy is interesting - striking out so few yet still having an ERA well below his FIP. It helps significantly that he has a much lower H/9 than I believed he would.
Bullpen

Greg Holland
Projected
67 games, 70 innings pitched
1.043 WHIP, 6.2 H/9, 0.4 HR/9
12.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.96 K:BB
1.93 ERA, 1.96 FIP

Actual - 33 games, 31 2/3 innings, 1.04 WHIP, 6.82 H/9, 0.85 HR/9
13.93 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, 5.44 K:BB, 1.99 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Holland is still doing better than predicted on the Ks and BBs, but the hits allowed and homers have gone slightly over what I thought. ERA/FIP look great.

Kelvin Herrera
Projected
68 games, 70 innings pitched
1.086 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9
9.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.67 K:BB
2.70 ERA, 3.06 FIP

Actual - 36 games, 34 2/3 innings, 1.24 WHIP, 7.53 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
7.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 2.07 K:BB, 2.34 ERA, 2.73 FIP

Herrera is reversing last year's HR luck. Let's hope it keeps up (or down as the case may be!) - same write up

Wade Davis
Projected
60 games, 75 innings pitched
1.187 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
9.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.25 K:BB
3.60 ERA, 2.98 FIP

Actual - 33 games, 35 2/3 innings, 0.87 WHIP, 3.79 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
14.13 K/9, 4.04 BB/9, 3.50 K:BB, 1.26 ERA, 1.56 FIP

Ummmm...If Davis continues to be better than Holland, this bullpen is ridiculous.

Louis Coleman
Projected
53 games, 73 innings pitched
1.151 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.97 K:BB
2.22 ERA, 2.96 FIP

Actual - 18 games, 19 2/3 innings, 1.93 WHIP, 11.90 H/9, 2.29 HR/9
5.95 K/9, 5.49 BB/9, 1.08 K:BB, 6.41 ERA, 7.07 FIP

Ummmm...opposite direction. Coleman was bad in the first quarter of the year. Not this bad. Dang.

Francisley Bueno
Projected
40 games, 40 innings pitched
1.300 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.14 K:BB
2.93 ERA, 3.58 FIP

Actual - 6 2/3 inning, not enough data

Aaron Crow
Projected
60 games, 55 innings pitched
1.345 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9
8.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.35 K:BB
3.27 ERA, 3.77 FIP

Actual - 37 games, 34 1/3 innings, 1.08 WHIP, 7.34 H/9, 0.79 HR/9
4.98 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 2.11 K:BB, 2.62 ERA, 3.92 FIP

Crow is becoming worse than Guthrie, Vargas, and Chen at striking people out. That's not good out of the pen.

Tim Collins
Projected
68 games, 61 innings pitched
1.393 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
9.7 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 1.94 K:BB
3.54 ERA, 3.63 FIP

Actual - 18 games, 17 1/3 innings, 1.56 WHIP, 8.83 H/9, 0.52 HR/9
5.19 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, 1.00 K:BB, 4.15 ERA, 4.78 FIP

The Royals need a LH reliever badly.

Michael Mariot
Projected
20 games, 30 innings pitched
1.400 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9
6.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.30 K:BB
3.90 ERA, 3.82 FIP

Actual - 15 games, 23 2/3 innings, 1.52 WHIP, 10.27 H/9, 0.38 HR/9
7.23 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 2.11 K:BB, 6.08 ERA, 3.19 FIP

Mariot has been okay in his start to his career - except his ERA. Nothing special, but close to my projections. (ditto)

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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