FanPost

A Critical Analysis of the Royals Part 1: The (Super) Optimists

(Note: This was originally posted during the All-Star Break.)

Loosely defined, the word Strategy applies to the balancing of objectives and resources. Strategic plans are developed to strike that balance in advance of the initiative, usually for the immediate, and longer-term, as defined. In baseball, these terms are most likely one- and five-year.

Implementation occurs at the tactical level, where real-time decision-making requires a second balance among resources, available information, anticipation of events to come, and how best to achieve the strategic objective(s).

Strategic planning and tactical implementation underpin initiatives as big as NASA’s goal to put a man on Mars, and as small as my six year old daughter’s effort to move her bedtime back 30 minutes.

My critical analysis of the Royals begins at the end of 2014: as sad I am to say this, the Royals are not making the playoffs. Like all Royals fans, I desperately want to see the Royals end the drought. Regrettably, numbers tend not to lie. As of the All Star Break, the Royals had a 17% chance of making the playoffs, and a 5% chance of winning the division according to Baseball Prospectus. Worse, the adjusted likelihood of making the playoffs was only 10%.

The eye test backs the numbers. Detroit’s "big three" pitchers are better than ours, and their offense is much better. I view the Tigers to be more vulnerable than Seattle, but 6+ games is too many for this team to make up. As for the wild card, the Royals flaws make it more unlikely that we’ll catch Seattle, and also beat out Toronto, New York, Cleveland in the process.

MAKING A JUDGMENT IS CENTRAL TO THE STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS. MAKING THE RIGHT ONE SEPARATES WINNERS AND LOSERS.

The determination that the Royals SHOULD be making is that they are NOT making the playoffs in 2014. This determination would correctly trigger the start of strategic planning for 2015.

Put another way, GMDM should, by now, have made this assessment, and begun work for 2015 – starting with the trade deadline. Indeed, the next two weeks are critical to 2015.

There are only two teams right now: Buyers and Sellers.

Getting the 2015 strategic plan correct requires the immediate decision to be made correctly: buy or sell. Of course, GMDM will not make the right decision. Nor will he hedge and do nothing. Quite the opposite, the Royals will take the 10% chance they’re making the playoffs, and, actually BUY.

Alas, we’re used to our misreads in KC, right?

(As an aside, no one from the major print outlets covering the Royals will call them on this. In a mental institution, you protect delusional people from themselves. In this case, the major print outlets simply walk around whistling and dreaming up new and improved ways to lose readers.)

Over the course of this series of posts, I’ll establish the core roots of this disaster of a decision, and season (which I correctly predicted in an e-mail LAST YEAR to Sam Mellinger -- just noting...), and put in writing how to fix things going forward.

Regrettably, the (Super) Optimists have, or will, convince themselves that we are Buyers. This crucial misstep will likely cost us 2015 too. So, "fixing things" means for 2016 and beyond. Sorry, it pains me to write that as much as it pains you to read it if you are the optimistic type.

To be clear, here are my predictions: despite overwhelming odds against making the playoffs in 2014, the Royals will not make the correct strategic decision to be Sellers in a weak trade market, and, predictably, won’t make the playoffs.

Specifically, the Royals should be selling Juevo Shields and either Holland or Wade Davis. The reason to sell is to maximize assets for a realistic playoff push in 2015-16. The fact that it’s a weak market doesn’t alter the analysis (that’s driven by probability), but it does highlight the scale of the mistake that will be made between now and July 31.

Not only should we play for next year, it happens to be a great year to play for next year.

Why Shields? Since he has no value following the season, and we’re not making the playoffs, his value to the Royals has maxed out barring a trade. He also happens to be the 2nd best SP available. Given the Royals need for 3rd base, RF, and probably 1st base (i.e., power hitters) to compete in 2015 and beyond, Shields is the best shot to return real value.

Closers are always in need as well. Detroit especially needs one and would likely pay too high for Davis or Holland as they are in World Series Champs or bust mode. In-division trades are always tough, but less concerning in this case given the fact that the Tigers are clearly about to enter a rebuilding process. In any event, we’re not keeping both, and someone out there thinks they’re a closer away from the WS.

(As noted, the (Super) Optimists will fail to maximize these assets, thereby allowing them to vanish following the season with basically no ROI.) Uggggggghhhhhhhhh.

Even more twisted than realizing no return on great assets is that, on planet Super-Optimisto, the Royals think they can win in 2014. This blind determination will lead to the horrible decision to MORTGAGE OUR FUTURE to chase that 10% playoff chance. Uggggggghhhhhhhh squared.

For fun, here’s a third prediction that – contrary to what ESPN has said – the Rangers will trade Rios, and we’ll bite. How’s that work? The Rangers are toast and aren’t likely to pick up his option given the economics -- $15 million for next year for a RF that’s lost his power.

If ESPN is right and Texas thinks they can compete next year, why hold Rios when he’d undoubtedly sign for less after the season? The Royals certainly aren’t picking up that $15 million. So, Rios for Aoki and a B-grade prospect saves the Rangers $4 million over the next few months and they bring Rios back for 2015 for less money (if they want). Sounds like a (Super) Optimistic deal in the making to me!

The bottom line of this first segment of the critical analysis? Buying when we should be selling is a bad way to start 2015.


This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.