FanPost

A Critical Analysis of the Royals Part 2: What the Royals SHOULD Do

(Note: This post originally posted during the Boston series after the All Star Break)

In Part 1 of this series, entitled "The (Super) Optimists", we established that the Royals should have determined by the All Star Break that they were Sellers, and begun the process of planning for 2015. We further established that, predictably, they would incorrectly conclude that they are legitimate contenders, and will turn into Buyers.

Two fascinating developments occurred in the immediate follow-up to my Part 1 post:

1. Some twelve months after I predicted this 2014 debacle -- and argued vehemently in an e-mail to Mr. Mellinger of the Star that the Royals should go into 2014 with Dyson as their starting CF (with Cain in right) -- a post appeared on this site that the Royals should forget trading for a RF, and play out the remainder of the 2014 campaign with Dyson.

2 The Royals blew a three-run lead / lost a chance to gain a game on both Detroit and Seattle.

I will address both of these developments at length in future posts, as both are central to my analysis.

In the meantime, a public reply to a close friend, eternal optimist (in the best of senses), and true Royals fan who noted after reading my first post that, predictably, I called for the Royals to sell because I’m always playing for next year.

This is not a personality flaw or truism in my world -- it is a read of the tea leaves and willingness to concede that our best shot at winning a title is in next year, not this year. As noted in the first post, "decision-making requires striking a second balance among available information, real-time events, and seeking to achieve the objective." I can appreciate that bailing on 2014 for '15 is harder than making the Greinke trade call, but my objective is to win a WS, not to make a one-game play-in.

The reason I called on the Royals to be Sellers -- and begin implementing its 2015 plan -- is because this group of players (with, very notably, this manager), simply are not going to get it done, not because I always want to play GM. Put another way, if I thought we were a player away, I’d argue strongly for getting that player. In fact, I was vocally supportive of the Shields-Myers and Greinke trades. I thought Moore did a great job in both.

Game 1 vs. Boston was a great example of why this group of players, with this manager, cannot get it done. Whether you’re in the camp that says "when making an important in-game decision that requires anything other than memory muscles (e.g. putting Davis in for the 8th and Holland for the 9th) Yost will inevitably choose wrong", or buy into the "players make plays (or don’t)" philosophy, the 6th inning in Game 1 of the Bo-Sox series proved you right!

I digress. Part 2 of this analysis will put on the record what the Royals should do between now and July 31 – this assuming, of course, that we are Sellers. [Note: pretty much every major analyst in the baseball world believes we should be Sellers, but what do they know??]

Step 1: The first step towards winning the division in 2015 is for the Royals to trade James Shields. The market should be set soon for the 2nd best starting pitcher available (assuming Price gets traded). This move is arguably bigger than Greinke (for which GMDM doesn’t get enough credit IMO).

Step 2: With the Hudson Street trade, the value for trading Holland or Davis is now established, and it’s quite high. This trade is now a no-brainer given the vulnerability of several contenders’ bullpens.

Step 3: This one is a bit risky, and pretty far off-plan for the Royals, but I would absolutely call SF, Washington and Baltimore about Christian Colon, or possibly even Infante. Personally, I like Infante, but these teams might pay very high for a guy that, in all fairness, is on the decline, has a manageable contract, and gives them a better shot at winning the WS than the slop they have at 2nd now. Colon continues to develop and by my read is major league ready. Either way, GMDM should identify the contenders and shop a real 2nd baseman to them.*

* Subsequent to the original posting, SF was desperate enough at 2nd to pick Uggla off waivers and play him in a meaningful game. To think we can flip Infante for some serious talent is amazing. To think we won’t is even more amazing…

Step 4: To repeat what I laid out to Mr. Mellinger last year, the Royals need to play Dyson every day for the rest of 2014. Whether we trade for Rios or another RF for the "playoffs push" or not, Aoki won’t be here in 2015 and Dyson needs to be evaluated (and has earned as much).

Step 5: In the same vein as Dyson, bring Colon back up and platoon him with Moose. We need to finalize this evaluation, and now. This frees up Valencia to be packaged in a deal.

That’s what the Royals SHOULD be doing right now. Taking it one step further, what should we want in return for four proven vets (Shields, Holland, Infante and Valencia)?

This 2015 "sale" list assumes that the Royals 2015 objective is to win the Division / make a run at the WS. Accordingly, we need major-league ready prospects or proven producers.

The nucleus supports this. Your 2015 pitching staff is currently: Vargas, Duffy, Ventura, and Guthrie. That’s in no particular order. Shedding Shield’s, Butler’s, and possibly Hochevar’s salaries (~$25m) should allow you to grab a pretty good 5th guy. GMDM has been great at finding second-tier guys that pitch to contact and look like Cy Young at Royals Stadium. No reason to think he can’t do it a third time this off-season.

Accordingly, for the talent I’m dangling, I’m thinking serious pitching prospects and MAJOR LEAGUE READY talent for 3B, 1B, RF.

To do this, I’d look for contenders that need a front-line starter AND a closer, and that meet this profile: have one of the most prolific / exciting young 3rd basemen in the game. Throw in there Danny Valencia in. He’s not a terrible downgrade for a team picking up Shields and Holland. Of course, if you do this, better be darn sure the guy’s the second coming of Cabrera, but can field.

As for Infante? Someone must have a kid in their system that destroys the ball, but can’t field. Go get him and lock down DH for the next several years. (Yes, I understand this very odd movement afoot that we don’t want a traditional DH. Trust me, I’ll address that soon.)

Aside: for the record, I think demonizing Billy Butler is absolutely ridiculous. The guy has matured nicely all things equal, been the best hitter on the team, took his demotion to DH like a man, and is a great ambassador for the team and city. Just stop people. Really.

A couple of final points.

First, I get that I just gummed up Dozier, who’s an intriguing prospect. The objective is to win in 2015, not 2017.

I also get that I didn’t get a RF. Presumably, you’re new mashing 3B and DH lets you play Dyson in 2015, but if you don’t like that idea, go spend some of that big money you’re saving on a power-hitting RF. They’re pretty easy to rent for a year.

Where does that leave us in 2015? Assuming you trade Infante:

Dyson, Hosmer, New Stud 3B, New Mashing DH, Sal, Gordon, Cain, Colon, Escobar

Now, that would make for an interesting 2015, especially is Scherzer slips out of Detroit.

(Remember, being a great fake GM requires you to make the tough calls. By being willing to trade Holland to Detroit, and predicting that Scherzer is going to leave Detroit, I’m making a HUGE decision that Detroit will be a shadow of its current self in 2015, opening the division for us. Regrettably, the Royals are not making that read.)



This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.