FanPost

What an "Average" Royals Offense would look like

Back in April I took a look at what an average Royals offense would look like. In my analysis of park factors, I determined that in 2013 the Royals left 86 runs on the field, or about 8-9 wins. For a team that is teetering on the brink of contention, that's a lot of opportunities lost.

Briefly, the methodology was to take the major league averages for hits, doubles, triples, HR, walks and runs, then compare that to the park factors to take into account whether a park suppressed or increased the given stat. After that, all you have to do is plug in the schedule. As I observed before, this method cannot account for the difference in pitcher quality. A game in Chicago against the White Sox doesn't account for whether it's Chris Sale on the mound or anyone else. It's just a game in Chicago. Obviously, that skews some of the data, particularly for the parks that we only visit for three or four games, but over the course of the whole season, those things should even out in the long run.

Now that we are 104 games into this season, it's time to look at what the Royals have done vs. what the Royals could do if they were an "average" major league offense.

Real Royals

Average Royals

Hits

943

925

2B

187

185

3B

17

18

HR

61

102

BB

248

320

Runs

416

469

Some observations:

The Royals have outhit an average offense. They have grabbed 18 more hits through 104 games, or roughly one base hit every 6 games. They are very close on doubles and triples. The top three numbers would make you believe that the Royals offense is very close to average. But ugh, those bottom three numbers are ugly. A 41 home run deficit. A 72 walk hole. That leads to a 53 run difference.

Let's tackle the HR and BB issues separately.

For home runs, the average run production is 1.44 runs. This means that just by being 41 home runs short the Royals have left 47.15 runs on the field (converting 41 singles worth .29 runs into 41 homeruns worth 1.44 runs). I converted the singles since the Royals are nearly dead on with doubles and triples. The home run difference alone very nearly makes up for the Royals 53 run deficit.

For walks, the average run production is .165 runs. This is a bit different, because the walks that are missing are PAs that otherwise resulted in outs. That would lead to an additional 11.88 runs. The walk difference doesn't eat up the hole in the offense, but it does point to at least 1 win being left behind due to a lack of plate discipline.

The strange thing about these numbers is that the Royals actually do possess most of the things necessary for an average offense. The get the doubles and triples. They actually get more hits than the spreadsheet would suggest for an average offense. Unfortunately, they don't clear the fence nearly enough, and they don't walk enough. Obviously, the home run deficit is where the real money is, but even a bump in walks could be worth an extra half win or so over the rest of the season.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.