FanPost

The Last 30 Games

After every Royals win I like to check on the playoff odds from around the Web. Fangraphs even has a nifty section where they project how the Royals will do over the Rest Of Season - pretty cool but more on that in a second.

First here's a look at the different playoff odds for the Royals (after their 6-1 win over the Twins):

Fangraphs: 72.6%

ESPN: 79.6%

MLB.com: 80.7%

"2014 Royals Make Playoffs" seems like a good bet. However Fangraphs has the Royals going just 15-15 over their last 30 games and finishing with 89 wins. That's a great total but I think we all expect a little better (we've been spoiled). However I don't want to let recent good fortune get in the way of reality and end up with a crushed soul. I'm not entirely sure how Fangraphs calculates that projection so I looked at the Royals opponents over the remaining 30 games and saw how the Royals faired in previous match-ups. Here it is:

Opponents (W-L, RS-RA, Diff)

1 vs. Twins (11-7, 73RS-72RA, +1)

6 vs. Cleveland (7-6, 57RS-54RA, +3)

3 vs. Rangers (2-1, 13RS-9RA, +4)

4 vs. Red Sox (0-3, 5RS-13RA, -8)

7 vs. White Sox (8-4, 59RS-39RA, +20) *Note: 2 of 4 losses against Chris Sale

6 vs. Tigers (4-9, 48RS-72RA, -24) *Note: Two separate 2-1 losses to Anibal Sanchez

3 vs. Yankees (2-2, 13RS-17RA, -4)

OVR: 34-32, -8

I can understand why Fangraphs thinks the Royals are going to play .500 ball over the next 30 games. Overall against these opponents the Royals have played right around that mark - poorly again the Tigers and Red Sox (4-12) and pretty well against everyone else (30-20)

But over their last 38 games (since the "2nd Half" started) here are the Royals numbers:

26-12, 161RS-131RA, +30

Obviously the Royals are playing extremely well right now - they currently sit 16 games above .500. But almost all of that "above .500" winning came in the last 38 games where they are an amazing 14 games over .500 (and that's counting the Red Sox sweep right after the break - take that out and the Royals are 26-9 over their past 35 games).

So what we have are two conflicting sets of numbers. Fangraphs thinks the Royals will play much like the 48-46 Royals that entered the All-Star Break. I think/hope (and probably a lot of readers, too) that the Royals will continue to play well and exceed expectations, winning two of every three games. Fangraphs projects 15-15 but I'd hope for 18-12 or at least 17-13 because winning is fun.

Either way, the Royals have put themselves in a strong position for the post-season - and not just a single road elimination game, either... we're talking Central Division.

I don't know how to calculate "true talent" but it seems Fangraphs (and the Royals first 94 games) suggest a .500 team. This hot streak has put the .500 Royals in a great position. But thinking about 15-15 and .500 baseball is no fun. Here's to the new Royals who win two of three and 18 of 30. Good luck.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.