FanPost

A Critical Analysis of the Royals Part 6: How to Make the Playoffs in 2014

The Royals currently have a 21% chance of making the playoffs, but only 13% adjusted chance. In terms of wins and losses, the Royals are 57-53. To snag that second WC, they’ll need to go at least 32-20 down the stretch.

Whether you think we should have traded Shields and Holland, or mortgaged our future to get a mediocre RF to replace our less-than-mediocre RF -- and whether you think Yost should be fired, or GMDM, or both -- you likely agree with this: now that the 2014 die is cast, let’s make the playoffs.

Playing .625 ball is a lot to ask from this team. Especially with Hosmer out, right? Not so fast. Here’s one that will bake your noodle: right now, we’re better with Hosmer out and Billy at first.

The simple reason is that the defensive downgrade is less detrimental than the offensive improvement gained. The less-simple explanation is that both Billy and Hosmer are currently glorified singles hitters that can’t bunt ,and aren’t particularly adept on the base paths. Translation: ignoring that Ned with inevitably jack this one up by DH’ing Ibanez, you’re swapping out one poor 2-hole hitter for a much more dangerous one.

[Note: still awaiting evidence of that Saber-Mathematician in the GM’s office…]

[Aside: As noted, I believe that Billy will rake now that he’s in the field, which changed the complexion of this offense altogether. You watch.]

The garbage we’ve been throwing out there is most definitely not dangerous. Dyson instead of Ibanez as your DH – now that’s dangerous.

If you want to win 32 of your remaining 50 games, here’s how:

1. Dyson

2. Aoki

3. Butler

4. Gordon

5. Sal

6. Infante

7. Moose / Colon (definitely platoon!!!)

8. Cain

9. Escobar

Again, in simple terms, the amount of havoc this lineup can create is substantial. In complex terms (at least to Ned), this team needs to 180 its approach to the game and begin bunting. Early, often, down 2, up 3, every chance it gets until it’s manufactured 4 runs. And then keep doing it.

That’s it. Score 4 runs / game with this staff and bullpen, and you really only need to win 32 games consisting of 6 innings each. The way to do that is make the other pitcher and defense uncomfortable, which it will, which will lead to mistakes. The way to do that is to play Dyson and see what speed do.

Is this possible? It is for the Royals. Better question is whether it is for Ned. Given that GMDM is now likely gone barring the playoffs, here’s hoping he orders Ned to do the right thing.

[Aside 2: I’m making an assumption that the Royals can bunt / run the base paths aggressively without making huge mental errors. This is not like KU pressing at the end of the game where athleticism and instinct take over. It’s a big assumption.

Finally, much ado is made about the Royals record when scoring 4 runs. I won’t go into detail at this time, but this is a statistical mirage and, more importantly, analytically incorrect. The proper analysis is not to look the record when scoring 4 runs, but rather to look at how you can manufacture an extra .5 runs per game, and how to score early enough in games to alter the makeup of that particular 9 innings. Put simply, the Royals need to worry less about scoring 4 runs, and a lot more about scoring 1 or 2 runs in the first 2-4 innings. The way to do that is to stop playing for the big innings, and to start playing for runs, no matter how they're scratched across.


This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.