FanPost

September Check-in vs. My Predictions

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Hello again RR. It's time for another check-in on my predictions from the beginning of the year vs the reality.

(these can be found here:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2014/3/28/5557848/the-royals-need-to-crush-it-in-april-and-may)

As a note, my predictions at the beginning of the year weren't necessarily what I expected, but what I believed the Royals would need to do to break the post-season drought.

The last time we checked in was at the beginning of August, where the Royals were 55-42, 3 games below what I had said I thought they needed to do (with one game vs the Yankees to be made up). That post can be found below:

http://www.royalsreview.com/2014/8/4/5967959/a-comparison-to-my-predictions-and-the-reality

The last part of the post stated that I believed if they went into September with a record of 72-64, they would have a good chance to make it to the play-in game.

This was, of course, before the Royals ridiculous month of August.

So, here is what I thought about going into September at the beginning of the year:

Running record: 75-61.

September:

September is a rough, rough month:

3 vs Rangers
3 @ NYY
3@ Detroit,
4 vs Red Sox
3 vs White Sox
3 vs Detroit
3@ Cleveland
4 @ White Sox.

Breakdown:

If you count those games, you find we play the White Sox 7 times, and contending teams 19 times.

You'd hope we could take 5 of 7 from the White Sox, and maybe 9 of 19 against these teams, giving us 14 wins. I think we need 15, to take us from 75 wins to 90. An important part of this is that we play Detroit 6 times and Cleveland 3, giving us a chance to directly gain games if we're not in the lead. I am also hopeful that Zimmer will have joined the rotation by now (hopefully he destroys the minors and is here before September) and can help the team make a push.

September goal: 15-11.

Final record, 90-72.

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Suffice it to say what I expected at the beginning of the year is not at all what the reality is.

For starters, no one could have predicted that Texas would collapse like they have. I also expected Boston to be in contention following the WS last year.

Oddly enough, after the win last night, the Royals record matches exactly what I wanted it to be at going into this month. However, for the purposes of this post, I'm going to assume the ACTUAL record of the Royals as of 12:01am September 1st was 74-62, as I am counting the last 3 outs against Cleveland as a loss. That will be reflected in my breakdown below as well. I know that we have a chance to win, but it's both easier and more likely to count it as a loss for the purposes of this post.

So, a look at the remainder of the season a series by series breakdown.

3 vs Rangers

So far, so good. We've won a game, and I feel confident the Royals can take another game of this series winning 2 of 3. A sweep would be great, but let's say 2 of 3. This would put the Royals at 76-63.

3 @ NYY

Shields, Duffy and Ventura will be our starters during this series. The Yankees have not indicated who their starters will be yet, but if we go off of their rotation it will be Pineda, McCarthy and Greene.

Pineda carved us up the last time we faced him, and from my limited research we have not faced McCarthy or Greene this season.

I really hope for 2 of 3 out of this series, taking us to 78-64.

3@ Detroit,

Well, the good news is that we'll be at 78 wins going into this series. The bad news is Guthrie and Vargas will be our starters for the first two games, Shields will take the mound of the 3rd (assuming no rotation changes).

Verlander, Scherzer and Porcello look to be the starters in this series. This is actually decent news as we get to skip Price who I would expect to pitch a no hitter against the Royals. Verlander has not been good against the Royals this year (5.74 ERA if my math is right, I can't find the team vs pitcher stats on a quick glance), and he will still be overcoming the embarrASSment that recent photo leaks have caused, but Guthrie isn't exactly Cy Young himself.

I think for this series we can optimistically take 2 of 3. We need to if we have any hope of winning the division.

Running count: 80-65


4 vs Red Sox

Going this far out, I'm not even going to try to guess what the rotation will be at. It should be Duffy, Ventura, Guthrie and Vargas, but who knows?

The Red Sox have been bad this year, so you hope for 3 of 4. But I can't keep having the Royals win every series, so I'm going to call this 2-2 to make up for my optimism in the other series and account for a likely #Yosted game.

Running record: 82-67 (yay, a winning record for the season!!!)


3 vs White Sox

Again, can't really project the rotation, but possibly Shields, Duffy, Ventura.

There's a 3/5 chance we see Chris Sale during this series, so we're going to say 2 of 3.

Running record: 84-68


3 vs Detroit

Looks like a repeat of the previous series. I hope Yost finds a way to skip a start or spot start someone to get a better pitching matchup. Guthrie, Vargas and Shields.

I was optimistic in my last series against the Tigers, so I'm going to say we only win 1 of 3 this time. Seems fair, right?

Running record: 85-70


3@ Cleveland

Note that I am not counting the postponed game here, as I expect we will lose it and it has already been added into the running record. Hopefully our "official" standing coming into this will be at least 85-68, and we'll probably lose the postponed game.

If nothing has changed, Duffy, Ventura and Guthrie will take the hill. Hopefully by this point we have found a bit more traction and can take 2 of 3, but I'm afraid that Cleveland will continue to have our number. However, to get us to 90 wins, we really need 2 of these three, so let's say "fuck it" and "#BeRoyal" and take 2 of 3, huh?

Running record: 87-71 (eclipsing last years mark).

4 @ White Sox.

Yet again we finish the season against the White Sox.

Hopefully by this time the Royals are a game or two better than my projections. If not, this will be serious choke-territory for this team. Again, if nothing has changed the rotation will be Vargas, Shields, Duffy and Ventura (which could be okay, as it would allow Shields 4 days of rest to start to the playoffs... if the WC looks more likely, I'm hopeful we find a way to arrange him as having 4 days rest (though I think I've heard he pitches well on 3 days rest... someone please correct me if I'm wrong?).

I think we can take 3 of 4, again, letting Sale have his win over us.

That puts us at 90-72 for the season, which I'm hoping is enough to make the post season.

Then again, the Royals could get hot again, win the next 9, and be at 84-61 with 17 games left in the season where going 7-10 will probably still get them to the post season.

Or...

You know what? I'm tired of that attitude, so I'm not going to finish that. It's time for the Royals to succeed.

I'll check in sometime again in mid September to tell you all how wrong I was and that I should never have thought the Royals wouldn't make the playoffs.

#BeRoyal.

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