FanPost

Being Dayton Moore: A Cole Hamels Dance Partner Dark Horse

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

See also "Update" below

This is an open letter to Dayton Moore, the bloggers at Royals Review, and the Phighters at TGP. I’d be thrilled if Andy MacPhail/Pat Gillick/Ruben Amaro Jr. read this as well, but I’m not sure whether this can be read on a Blackberry or Commodore 64.

This post has been cross-posted to The Good Phight

We have been going through strurm und drang over at The Good Phight over the possibility of trading Cole Hamels. We know that the Phils have to rebuild, but we don’t want a rehash of the horrifying Curt Schilling, Cliff Lee (the one that traded him to Seattle) or Hunter Pence trades (either of them). The problem in my view is that prospects are being way over-rated now in a WAR/salary analysis.

But the teams with money to take on Cole Hamels AND have prospects to give are so few! The RedSox! The Cubs! The Dodgers! Or maybe the Cardinals! And they want to hold on to those prospects (let alone their cash!) like Scrooge Duck! That’s been particularly true of the Red Sox, who have been rumored to be talking to the Phils about a Hamels trade since Bill Clinton was President (or at least it seems that way).

But really, as a Phils Phan, I’m not thrilled with Cole ending up on any of those teams (in particular the team on the other side of Missouri from some of you). I’d rather he end up with a team like the Astros, except that (1) we have our own slightly-neurotic history with that team that’s too complicated to describe for this post; (2) We’d probably just be getting back the prospects we sent them for Pence, namely Jon Singleton and Domingo Santana (cue the sad trombone) and (3) The Astros likely don’t care given all the prospects in their system and in any case are likely too busy giving affidavits these days.

I’ve posted at TGP that it’s really the Dodgers that should be pulling the trigger (reasons at the bottom of that link) since they should be tired of doing highlights of their last World Series win (note: that's only three years after the last World Series win for KC). But it seems that they are unwilling to give up one good outfielder or pitcher, or maybe a slightly-crazy outfielder. At some point, you have to go for it. And the Dodgers should be going for it, IMO (strategic objectives vs. operational objectives, effectiveness vs. efficiency, yo).

But wait – isn’t there another team that is a really legitimate World Series contender that should be "going for it"? It’s that All-Star Team ™, the Greater Metropolitan Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas Area Royals! Seriously, no joke, I am personally thrilled for all of you at Royals Review. I even kind of felt bad when it was you guys we beat in 1980 (I would not have felt any negative emotion in the slightest had we beat the Yankees). After all, one of my favorite opposing players of all time, George Brett, is forever linked with my favorite player, Mike Schmidt. So, now, after 30 years in the wilderness, last October you saw the promised land over the hill (you tried getting there last year, but an annoying guy threw rocks in your chariots and gummed up the works).

But you don’t have a real "ace" yet. And most teams need one during the playoffs (hello again). Maybe one of the guys now on the KC 40-man roster or in the majors will fill that role in 2017….but not in 2015. But guess what! We have a great one for you here in Philadelphia! And do we have a deal for you, Dayton Moore!

Now, some of you at Royals Review are saying "haha, how will we afford that?" OK, on that score, got you covered! And here’s where just a slight bit of financial wizardry on your part, Mr. Moore, could really bring home the bacon in 2015.

Here is my proposed trade:

SEE UPDATE BELOW

Part 1:

From the Phillies: Cole Hamels,Ben Revere, Andres Blanco and Jeff Francoeur, all with their salaries covered in their entirety for 2015

From the Royals: Alex Rios, Jeremy Guthrie and 5-plus players (!) from the lists below.

What this Rios and Guthrie part of the trade does is lower the KCR salary level by almost $9M. in 2015 while dramatically upgrading your pitching, getting a temporary replacement for Gordon, and upgrading your 2015 bench in preparation for the playoffs. By doing some creative budgeting, Dayton, you could apply that $9M to Hamels’ 2016 salary and make Cole affordable in that year. The fact that you will have an ace pitching every five days will also likely significantly increase your revenue, meaning that you would be able to afford his salary in 2017 or (barring injury) you could flip him at that point since he would still be relatively-affordable to other teams.

Revere would serve as a temporary replacement for Alex Gordon and is relatively cost-effective (although not for the Phils, especially as a 2016 starting OFer) and will be in arbitration in 2016; Blanco and Francoeur are free agents after the season. Blanco is having a career year (especialy as a pinch hitter). Not only is Francoeur having a better year than Rios, he would be important as a "glue" between the old Royals and the new Royals, and maybe even in convincing Hamels that he would want to go there. Hamels would feel comfortable with Joe Blanton and Ryan Madson in the bullpen, as well.

Alex Rios and Jeremy Guthrie will be given their parting gifts after the 2015 campaign by the Phils (paying off any buyouts), prior to which they will faithfully contribute to the Phils landing at the top of the 2016 MLB draft.

The key for the Phils, obviously, will be who else is included. And I’ve tried to be creative in this list.

Set 1: 2 of these 3: Brandon Finnegan, Sean Manaea, Kyle Zimmer. plus a 2016 competitive balance draft pick,

Some of you at Royals Review might be gulping a bit. I have been arguing for a top of the line prospect, like Bryant, Seager, Pederson, or maybe Schwarber for Hamels. In the current market, that doesn’t seem to be possible. And, truthfully, you guys aren’t giving up Mondesi, and in any case the Phils don’t need help at that position right now. So the likelihood is that the Phils would take the high floor guy (Finnegan) and one of the two high ceiling guys (Manaea and Zimmer). (If you Royals fans would prefer gving up Manaea and Zimmer, that would be fine)

You can think of Set 1 as the "return for Hamels and salary relief"

Set 2: Balbino Fuenmayor (all-star name at the least) and Parker Morin

These guys are lottery tickets at positions that the Royals have locked up, first base and catcher. However, these are positions that the Phils have real need for. For Phils fans, Fuenmayor looks to be at least Darin Ruf-quality and maybe more. He has been playing forever in Latin America and the US, but it looks like maybe he has figured it out; the Royals recently locked him up for 2016. . Morin is finally hitting well at AA in SSS after years of very-mediocre hitting. I don’t want a catcher as a headliner in a deal, but I am happy to stockpile these guys and maybe someone will pan out.

You can think of set 2 as the "return for Revere" and/or additional compensation for Hamels and salary relief.

Set 3: 1 of these 2: Jose Martinez or Brett Eibner

You can think of set 3 as the "return for Francoeur and Blanco". Martinez is another 10 year-veteran from Latin America who is still 26. Martinez could possibly substitute for Morin above. Eibner appears to be somewhat similar to Kelly Dugan.

If you Royals fans think you are giving up too much in this trade, it’s possible to switch out Blanco for someone like Cody Asche, who might just need a "change of scenery". The good news is that he’s a near-local from Lincoln NE and that might boost his confidence; the bad news is that he plays a non-need position of 3B (and that’s his problem in Philly with Maikel Franco). I actually think you need Blanco more at this point as a bench player given how well he is currently swinging the bat (especially as a pinch-hitter) along with decent defense.

The Phils would be happy to throw in Aaron Harang/Chad Billingsley (your choice) for free with their salary covered if you wanted an upgrade there, although that doesn't seem like something of need after Hamels is obtained.

So, again, one version of the trade would be: Hamels, Revere, Francoeur and Blanco for Guthrie, Rios, Finnegan, Zimmer, Fuenmayor, Morin, Martinez and a competitive balance pick.

So would getting Cole Hamels and some of these other "upgrades" please you Royals fans? Phighters, are we getting enough for Cole?

Obviously, I doubt a deal exactly like this could happen, although stranger deals have taken place. From my perspective, this would be a trade that would help both teams (including maybe winning a World Series for the Royals!) without being a "prospect fetish" kind of a deal. The real point I am driving at is that it shows that once the Phils decide to let $$$ not be an object, there are plenty of options (and that's why I'm posting it).

Fire away.

And Dayton, no charge for the consulting advice!

Update:

First, thanks to the Royals Review masthead for front-paging this! I’m honored!

Based on feedback from both The Good Phight and Royals Review, this trade is seen as not feasible financially for the Royals as I’ve constructed it. Additionally, while Jeff Francoeur is a serious management and fan favorite in Philadelphia, all of you at Royals Review appear to be even more skeptical than we are about having him on our favorite team (I commend your taste).

Moreover, I was shocked to find out that Omar Infante was signed to a multi-year deal at more than $7M per year (I assumed his contract ended in 2015). That is almost as unfathomable as signing Kendrys Morales to the deal he was signed for (which was destined to blow up). Certainly the Phils are not planning to re-sign Andres Blanco, who is having a better year in 2015 than Infante did in 2013 – to a contract with $7M AAV. On the other hand, I am even more certain that for pure baseball reasons (let alone contractual/salary reasons) the Royals need to upgrade over Infante going into the playoffs.

Finally, some of the folks at Royals Review were confused by the complexity of the trade. I think it really does need to be complex to work, but perhaps not as complex as I’ve made it. However, those "additional" players than some Royals fans thought were unnecessary additions – Fuenmayor and Morin/Martinez as well as the draft pick – are absolutely critical to the deal working for the Phillies. At least one of those guys (likely Fuenmayor) has to pan out as a "possible future starter" for the trade to make sense.

So, here is a new possible version of the trade:

Hamels, Revere and Blanco for Rios, Infante, Guthrie, Finnegan, Zimmer, Fuenmayor, Morin, Martinez and the 2016 competitive balance draft pick.

In this version, the Phils do not retain salary. Together, Hamels, Revere and Blanco make $27M this year, as do Rios, Infante and Guthrie prior to buyouts. That’s right, the salary amounts for this year are a wash; given that the Phils will surely buy out Guthrie, it actually saves the Royals $3.2M. Moreover, with Infante off the KCR books in 2016 and 2017, that gives salary relief for the Royals at $8M a year; that makes Hamels eminently affordable (in a WAR/salary sense) in those years for the Royals (at only $3M more per year than Guthrie makes, if you include the buyout in 2015, for comparison). The Royals could tender or non-tender Revere after the season, or even flip him for another prospect. Hamels could be flipped in 2018 if they chose; as part of the deal, the Phils could also pay for insurance for any long-term Hamels’ injury possibility.

I really do think this could work, and would be great for both teams.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.