The Royals have been heavily linked to the St. Louis Cardinals in trade rumors, with names like Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, and Jarrod Dyson mentioned as trade pieces. Reporter John Perrotto reported that one name the Royals are interested in as a return is second baseman Kolten Wong.
#Royals have talked to #STLCards about dealing Cain/Davis for Wang and package of prospects. #MLB
— John Perrotto (@JPerrotto) December 5, 2016
Kolten Wong was a first-round pick by the Cardinals in 2011 out of the University of Hawaii. He was a top 100 prospect by all the major publications for the next three seasons, hitting .308/.371/.462 in 305 minor league games. By 2013 he was already in the big leagues for a cup of coffee, and was even named to the post-season roster, although he was best known for getting picked off to end Game Four of the World Series.
In 2014, Wong was named the starting second baseman and got off to a great start, being named National League Rookie of the Month in May. But he slumped in the middle of the season, perhaps hampered by a shoulder injury that shelved him for a few weeks. He ended up hitting .249/.292/.388 with 12 home runs in 402 plate appearances, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting.
Wong improved his numbers in 2015, hitting .262/.321/.386 with 11 home runs in a full season of work, and in the off-season, he signed a five-year, $25.5 million contract extension with the Cardinals, with a club option for 2021. Wong struggled to begin the 2016 season, and by June the team demoted him to the minor leagues. When he returned, he found himself out of a regular starting job after the emergence of Aledmys Diaz and Jedd Gyorko. He played 16 games in the outfield, wher he had played in college. Wong had a career-worst season, finishing at .240/.327/.355 in 361 plate appearances.
Wong has been a very streaky hitter in his career, who has consistently put up poor batting average on balls in play (BABIP), suggesting perhaps he has just been a bit unlucky. His walk rate spiked considerably this year, and his 9.4% walk rate would have been better than anyone on the Royals except Alex Gordon. He improved his plate discipline while cutting down on his strikeout rate to 14.4%.
Wong is a good baserunner, with 10.0 Baserunning Runs over the past three seasons, 33rd-best in baseball. He has 45 career steals with a 79% success rate. He has also been a very solid defender at second base with 19 Defensive Runs Saved over the last three seasons with a solid showing in range metrics.
So the Cardinals second baseman sounds like a below-average hitter who can run well and play good defense. Sound familiar?
PA | AVG | OBA | SLG | BsR | Off | Def | fWAR | |
Kolten Wong | 361 | .240 | .327 | .355 | 1.8 | -5.0 | 5.5 | 1.2 |
Whit Merrifield | 332 | .283 | .323 | .392 | 3.7 | -0.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 |
Now Wong is 26 year old, two years younger than Merrifield, with a much better pedigree. While he has nearly 1,500 Major League plate appearances under his belt with an 87 wRC+, he wouldn't be the first player to suddenly figure things out offensively after a few seasons (see Moustakas, Mike). The projection system Steamer certainly likes Wong a lot more going forward, projecting a 97 wRC+ for him in 2017, compared to 77 for Whit Merrifield.
But is the difference between those two great enough to move a major asset like Davis or Cain? Certainly it would depend on what prospects are included in any trade. The Cardinals do have some depth at starting pitcher and could part with a prospect like Luke Weaver or Junior Fernandez, although Alex Reyes may be off limits.
Wong's contract, while not onerous, should also be a consideration. Wong will earn just $2.5 million next year, $4 million in 2018, $6.25 million in 2019 and $10.25 million in 2020. It is a pretty club-friendly deal, but it is also a commitment, even if Wong never really lives up to his potential. Are the Royals prepared to pay $10.25 million for a 1 WAR second baseman?
Wong has some obvious upside and the Cardinals "want a lot" for him. He seems like the kind of player Dayton Moore likes - a hard-worker who hustles and can run and play good defense. He could be the answer at second base, where the Royals have rifled through players year-after-year with little success. On the other hand, he is probably not the kind of impact player many fans have been looking for in exchange for a Wade Davis or Lorenzo Cain. Wong may be part of a trade with the Royals, but he should probably not be the centerpiece.