FanPost

2017 Royals Season Preview

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

At long last, it's almost here! Royals baseball will begin in about a week! Words cannot describe how excited I am to watch another whole season of baseball, my favorite sport in the world. Even if the Royals aren't doing good, I always look forward to this time of year, because not only do I love the Royals, but I love watching baseball in general. But let's set the digressions aside, and talk about the upcoming season for the team, one which will determine the destiny of the team for a while. To start, much has changed for the Royals ever since they won the World Series in 2015. Whether it will help or harm the Royals can only truly be determined by waiting. But we can still predict how we think the season is going to go, based on observation, numbers, and plenty of foresight. Here's a piece-by-piece analysis of the 2017 Royals.

Components of the Royals:

Offense:

The Good: Most of the offense is healthy again, and well rested. This is critical for players who will play very important roles in our offense, like Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Salvador Perez. Part of why they did so poorly in 2016 compared to 2015 was exhaustion. Now that they've had a long offseason to think about what they did wrong last year, they can try new approaches and get their bats going again. Perez has the shot to have a real breakout season for 2017, something which is long overdue for him. He won the Silver Slugger in 2016, and had a very good first half last year, and can build upon it by breaking the second-half slump and hitting .300 for the season. This may just be the beginning of his push for the Hall of Fame someday, at least I hope it is. Hosmer has the chance to make up for his awful second half, and his performance in the World Baseball Classic has certainly given him some motivation. Alex Gordon is looking to have a comeback season now that his health is better, and he's starting off on the right foot by hitting over .350 for the spring. Moustakas is back from his ACL, and wants to pick up where he left off. In addition, we might just get a little more help this year from the newer Royals, such as Cheslor Cuthbert and Paulo Orlando, our rookies like Hunter Dozier and eventually Jorge Bonifacio. Even our top prospect in Raul Mondesi is having an incredible spring that should earn a spot in the majors this year. I have high hopes for his career, because I believe that he's our best shot at getting a Cooperstown-worthy player in a while.

The Bad: The team has certainly taken a large step in power, but at the expense of contact. If we wanted to sign someone with power, it would have been a better idea to sign Carlos Beltrán, but financial talks stalled for too long for the team to sign him. Moss, Soler, and O'Brien all have power, but I'm not convinced that it will be enough to give the team a threatening offense, especially when you pair it with their unsettling strikeout rates. This will only worsen the issue the Royals had with strikeouts last year. The team was among the lowest in striking out last year, but had the largest increase in strikeout rate last year from 2015, leaping from 6.07 to 7.56 strikeouts per game. Even though Moss and Soler do solid jobs at taking a walk, I believe it is largely negated by their high strikeout rates. None of them should be significantly affected by the size of Kauffman Stadium, but it is worth mentioning, because it will strain their numbers in terms of power. Because of this, Soler and Moss are going to have to be able to do more than just the long ball, or our offense will falter where and when we need it most. Hosmer and Cain are likely to have better seasons, but I can't say the same for Perez and Gordon. Both of them have some issues with striking out, and have been known to get trapped in very long slumps that devastate their seasons altogether. It's very possible that Perez is going to forget how to use his bat in the second half like he always seems to do, because it's happened so many times. There's also the possibility that Moustakas will not be able to effectively recover from injury. He's doing awful in Spring Training, which is not a comforting sign. And our rookies and younger players are far from the most touted in the majors, and they have a high chance of failing to meet expectations. Mondesi only hit .185 in 2016, Orlando can easily come back down to Earth, Merrifield can hit a devastating sophomore slump, the possibilities are endless. If this team's offense goes limp for the season, which it has an uncomfortably high chance of doing, the seeds of victory will be salted before they ever get to sprout.

Defense:

The Good: Now that most of our big players are healthy again, they can resume doing what they do best: defense. Gordon strives to make a comeback with not only his bat, but also with his glove, and we know all the incredible things he can do with his glove. Perez, our brick wall on the backstop is still there, and I expect him to put up another Gold Glove season this year, as usual. Hosmer is still at first, and he's still got Gold Glove worthy defense at his side. Cain is back and should be fully healthy again, able to patrol center field like he always does with style and skill. Even Moustakas is back from that freak incident in foul territory in Chicago, and he's got solid defense with him to cover the hot corner. If he's able to prove that he's gotten over his ACL, then we should have little to no problems at third base. And now that we've got Raul Mondesi with us, he can boost our defense at second base, or shortstop, whichever we need. In short, our defense is largely intact in most areas, which should be enough to help us.

The Bad: Although Mondesi has demonstrated incredible defensive skill and prowess, we have to remember he's still only 21 years old, an age that is incredibly volatile for any professional athlete, let alone a baseball player. I doubt things will go wrong with his glove, but it's always a good thing to be prepared for the worst, just in case. The same can go for other young players like Cuthbert, Bonifacio, Dozier, and Whit Merrifield. All of them have little major league experience, and their defense could suddenly become very sloppy. It already has in some ways in Spring Training. But a sloppy defense isn't just a concern for our rookies, it's also a possible concern for some of our veteran players. Alcides Escobar's shrinking range factor is something to be concerned about. Maybe he'll have a better year this time around, but once again, it's best to be prepared for the worst. Another concern will be whether Moustakas's defense is going to fully recover from injury. So far in Spring Training, he hasn't had very much trouble, but injuries can easily flare up again when you least want it, so be cautious. The rest of our veterans should be okay, but having poor defense from our young players, shortstop, and third base will devastate the Royals.

Starting Pitching:

The Good: This was the area I was very concerned with for most of the offseason, but the moves the Royals made in February have significantly increased the ceiling for the starting rotation. Danny Duffy has just come off a career best season, where he threw some of the best games in his career so far, including that awesome 16-strikeout performance against Tampa Bay on August 1st (my little brother's birthday). Some are comparing him to other late bloomers like Cliff Lee, which I think is excellent company to be with. Ian Kennedy has overall exceeded my expectations, and has a good shot of doing even better. He's managed to have long stretches of very good pitching, which has brought his ERA down from the previous year. Adding Jason Hammel to the team was an excellent move, and a major boost to our rotation. Hammel knows how to dominate during the first half, which is a useful to help get the Royals off and running to a good start. Surely we can make the other teams regret waiting so long for him. Jason Vargas is back, and judging from his small sample size in 2016, it's safe to say that he'll serve us well. Nathan Karns has good potential in the fifth slot, with solid control and strikeout rate. Travis Wood, and maybe even Chris Young could help us a lot in a pinch, both pitchers are decent ideas to have as swingmen. If this rotation is able to live up to their expectations, then we may just have one of the best starting pitching rotations in the American League, a tremendous boost from last year's team.

The Bad: Although the Royals rotation has one of the highest ceilings out of all the rotations in the major leagues, I'd argue that it's also one of the most unpredictable rotations. As much of a chance that this rotation has to astound, it also has the same chance to frustrate, leave us unable to answer what went wrong. Danny Duffy was in a similar situation in 2014, and he followed up with a lousy 2015. Although the chances of this happening again should be lower, it's always something to pay attention to. Ian Kennedy has had problems giving up home runs, with 33 for 2016. I don't care how low your ERA is as a starter is. Giving up 30 or more home runs as a starter is a big problem. This is what likely, in my opinion, one of the big things cost Justin Verlander the Cy Young award. Jason Hammel has been known to struggle mightily in the second half, which could easily cost us in a September pennant race. Jason Vargas will always have red flags on his health, which could easily go south at any moment. Nathan Karns has issues with giving up runs, posting an ERA above five last year. And Travis Wood, I believe, is better suited for the bullpen because of some of the uncomfortable numbers he's put up as a starter. He hasn't really pitched out of the rotation in a while, so this could hamper his success. If fortune does not favor us at all, then we could have one of the worst rotations in the league, something that will kill our season before it even starts.

Bullpen:

The Good: Good thing we still have Kelvin Herrera for now, because his triple-digit fastball, blistering change-up in the high 80s, and his new wipeout slider will be helpful tools for closing out the game. He is easily the best reliever that we have in the bullpen that is actually performing, but we have other pitchers that have potential to be lethal arms. Matt Strahm blew away major league hitters in his debut season last year to the tune of a 1.23 ERA across 22 innings, holding opponents to a .173 average. And more rookies may be coming soon to the bullpen, like Yender Caramo, coming off a surprising spring and a great 2016 season, or Josh Staumont, with his fastball that can easily exceed 100 mph. The Royals already have a solid class of veteran relievers already on their hands that have high ceilings, like Mike Minor, and even Chris Young. Maybe even Joakim Soria can have a comeback season? The team has even picked up a few veterans that can help in the bullpen sometime soon, like Seth Maness, Travis Wood, Chris Withrow, Bobby Parnell, and Peter Moylan. Yes, the bullpen is a bunch of nuts, bolts, and scrap parts, but they can all come together to build a menacing bullpen that will put us back in the competition.

The Bad: Trading away Wade Davis to the Cubs has severely debilitated the bullpen, no matter how you put it. Whether Kelvin Herrera can actually find his comfort zone in the closer's spot is uncertain. He fell apart in the later stretch of the season, due to fatigue that may have been caused by the workload as a closer. And yes, I have to admit the obvious: until he proves otherwise, Soria is a major liability in the bullpen, as he demonstrated last year by posting unacceptable stats for a reliever, including eight losses, a 4.05 ERA, and a 1.46 WHIP. If his career is running out of gas, bogged down by two Tommy John surgeries, then last year may have been the biggest sign of things to come. As for Strahm, there is always the dreaded sophomore slump to worry about. And then there's the possiblity of our rebuilding projects failing to amount to anything significant, whether it's poor statistics, or injury delay after injury delay. There's a very real possibility of the Royals bullpen becoming one of the worst in the league, unsettling to think about after three years of dominance in that area.

The Bench:

The Good: The Royals have had one of the better benches in the American League for a while now. Even though that has changed a little bit (something I'll get to later), the Royals's bench remains solid. Paulo Orlando's quick legs, good contact, and very good defense that he displayed last year are any manager's dream to have on the bench. Billy Burns is another one of the speedy outfielders with good contact, except that he is younger, and can switch hit too. New addition Peter O'Brien has surprised us this spring, and it's not an impossibility that he will do it again in the majors, should he make it. Not much has changed in terms of having a backup catcher after resigning Drew Butera, except that we signed Brayan Peña, who is in another league compared to Tony Cruz. Christian Colón can even play second base and shortstop in a pinch if we need him to. We've even got a fresh batch of young players like Cuthbert and Dozier to help fill out other roles as we go. Though most of these guys are names most won't recognize, they make a sturdy crew of bench players.

The Bad: Trading away Jarrod Dyson has eviscerated the bench. He was far and away our best bench player, and now he's gone. This puts all the pressure on Orlando. It's not very likely that Orlando is going to hit .300 again this season. His impatience with the bat will only hamper his offense even further if he can't make contact. Burns had a bad sophomore slump in 2016—he had a significant drop in stolen bases and batting average—which lead to him being traded here to Kansas City, and we've yet to see if he will recover from it in 2017. O'Brien will have to really prove he's ready for the majors in order to make any significant contributions, because he has a tendency to strike out a lot, and has poor contact. Butera's arm is still much weaker than Perez's, and he has historically had very poor offense, with last year being a sort of exception. Colón is coming off an awful season, in which he's appeared to have lost the ability to hit the ball with the bat. And there's always the volatility of young ball players to be concerned about, also known as the dreaded sophomore slump. If things don't go the Royals way, we could easily end up with one of the weakest benches in the major leagues, mostly in terms of offense.

Trade Deadline:

If we Buy:

I honestly can't firmly decide if we are going to buy or sell at the trade deadline this year, even if we are competitive. The problem is that poor drafts from 2010 to 2014 have severely handicapped our farm system. Any chances of us making a blockbuster trade—like we did for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist in 2015—are marginal at best, and nonexistent at worst. I just can't see the Royals acquiring any of the big names that might be on the trade block this summer, such as Andrew McCutchen, José Quintana, Sonny Gray, J.D. Martinez, or Ryan Braun. This is extremely unfortunate, because this year's trade deadline is forecasted to be a feeding frenzy. But I wouldn't count out any activity from the Royals, at least in the trade market. I have been putting tabs on relievers from non-competitive teams and teams that are unlikely to be competitive that we can trade for this summer, similar to what the Twins did in 2015 by acquiring Kevin Jepsen from the Rays. Maybe we could add an extra bat to amp up the offense or another bench player, but I believe this year we'll be searching for bullpen arms if we buy at the deadline.

Who to Watch: Names like Cam Bedrosian, Tom Wilhelmsen, Danny Farquhar, Xavier Cedeño, Ryan Pressly, Tommy Kahnle, Dan Jennings, and many other relievers are all on my radar as of now. We'll have to wait and see which teams will be out of it by summer, and how each of these players are performing before trading.

If we Sell:

This is an extremely painful idea for the Royals team, fanbase, and organization to stomach, but it is very possible that we just might be sellers at the trade deadline this year. For one, we don't really have the prospects to make any significant deal other than the list of players I mentioned in the above section. And it is very possible that the Royals may be out of the playoff race by July. Fortunately, not everyone is on the chopping block for a trade this time. Perez, Duffy, and Gordon are likely to be almost untouchable this trade deadline because of contracts. But the situation isn't so fortunate for other players. All I can say is that if we give away any players this trade deadline, we should be able to get some fairly decent prospects, maybe a top 100 prospect, a refreshing addition to our parched farm system.

Who to Watch: If we are selling at the trade deadline, prepare to hear rumors about players like Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain and Escobar, all of them being painful ideas to think about, considering how much they've brought here to Kansas City.

Alternative Options:

Considering the situation that the Royals's farm system is in, it is very possible that the Royals may pull off some unconventional moves to boost the team. The Royals have done this before. For example, in 2003, the Royals signed independent league pitcher José Lima to the team, and he managed to hold his own in June and July for the team. This, however may not be the best example out there—he faltered later during the summer and heavily struggled after that. But the point is that the Royals will still be able to sign free agents, even in the dog days of summer, such as what the White Sox did last year with Justin Morneau, a deal that turned out to be okay. Believe it or not, there are still some decent relievers out there that are still recovering from injury, but should be good to go by summer. It's like finding a hidden weapon halfway through a video game that turns out to be extremely useful, except it will help you out in the real world. If the Royals are unable to trade due to their parched farm system, expect the team to sign a free agent, maybe two. It's a dangerous gamble, but it can really boost a team's chances of competition.

Who to Watch: If the Royals offense needs a boost this summer, anticipate some outrageous signings by the Royals that just might work, such as a reunion with Jonny Gomes or Billy Butler, both of whom, believe it or not, may still be available by the summer. However, I think a bullpen arm is the more likely case, such as Jordan Walden, Aaron Barrett, or Charlie Furbush if his recovery is faster than expected. Also, consider the possibility of an independent league player coming to the Royals.

Prediction for 2017:

The 2017 Royals will likely be the most unpredictable team in the majors, if you consider where they'll end up in the standings. They have just as good of a chance of winning the World Series as they do with finishing with 100 losses for the season. In other words, I can't decide if this year is going to suck or going to be awesome for the Royals. If the Royals do end up making the postseason, I'd be surprised. But I can't see the Royals getting past the Indians in the division, and the Tigers will certainly give us a run for our money, so a wild card spot is probably going to be our best shot at making the postseason. And even if the Royals do make it into the postseason, I just can't see them making it very far with teams like the Red Sox, Rangers, and Astros that have a much better chance of competing this year. It only gets worse if we make it into the World Series and have to deal with juggernauts like the Nationals, Dodgers, and Cubs. However, it is worth noting that I came into the 2015 season with somewhat the same attitude that I have towards the Royals coming in to 2017, and we all remember how 2015 ended. Right?

Verdict: At a reasonable best, I can see the Royals winning 86 to 89 games in 2017, which I'm not certain will be enough to push into the Wild Card spot. Overall, do not expect the Royals to make the postseason, because chances are you might be let down. Regardless, do not count out the Royals, or you might pay.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.