FanPost

Remaining Schedules of Wild Card Teams

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Well folks, here we are. It's September 10th, and the Royals sit at 71-71 with 20 games to go; .500 ball. Yet somehow, be it a fluke, competitive balance or just some lingering form of Royals Devil Magic ™, the Royals find themselves still in the hunt for the Wild Card.

The Royals currently sit 2.5 games back from the Twins, tied with Texas and Baltimore, with the Angels 1.5 back and the Yankees all but locked into a spot with a 3.5 game lead on the Twins currently (though that could change). Any hope for contention in the division has died in the past three weeks, with Cleveland going on one hell of a tear and being 15 games ahead of the Royals.

This is quite and undertaking, and I'm likely jumping the gun as I'd imagine an article identical to this is due out early this week, but I wanted to provide my thoughts, as well as my max projection for Royals wins this season.

Let's start at the bottom. There are 7 teams with any kind of chance at the 2nd Wild Card spot, and despite chances to do so, no one team has really separated from the pack.

At the bottom sits Tampa Bay, 3.5 games back. Their schedule, and home field advantage, has been seriously messed up by Irma (I wanted to make a joke, but this is looking worse and worse and I can't bring myself to joke about something so horrible). It looks like their home games vs the Yankees are being played at Citi Field, but I don't think it makes much difference as their schedule is by far the hardest of the remaining contenders.

3 vs Yankees
3 vs Red Sox
2 vs Cubs
4 @ Baltimore
3 @ Yankees
3 vs Baltimore

I don't envy Rays fans for this schedule. I just don't see them being able to make moves against this line up of other teams who are better than them. At 71-73 with 18 games remaining, it's hard to see them getting to .500 by the end of the year,let alone going on a big run.

The Mariners are next, sitting at 71-72.

Much like the Rays, they have a fairly tough schedule ahead:

4 @ Texas
3 @ Houston
3 vs Texas
3 vs Cleveland
3 @ Oakland
3 @ Angels

With the exception of the A's, every team on here is better in the standings, and likely better overall. With 19 games left, it's hard to imagine them winning more than 10, and realistically I'd say they only win 8 or 9. Another team destined to fall below .500.

Now we get to the 3-way tie at 2.5 games back, Texas, Royals and Baltimore. I'm saving KC for last, so...

Texas currently sits at 71-71 with 20 games remaining. We're seeing a lot of overlap in a few of these teams since they are in the same division. This is actually very good for the Royals:

4 vs Seattle
3 @ Angels
3 @ Seattle
3 @ Oakland
3 vs Astros
4 vs Oakland

It's nice that Seattle, Texas and the Angels play each other so much in these last games as it makes it unlikely any of these three can really jump up much in the standings. Each game to them is going to be massively important, especially against each other, and barring a collapse from any of them, I don't imagine we'll see many games where AAA call-ups dominate a lineup.

I can see this team winning 12 games, maybe 13. Their schedule is padded with 7 games against Oakland, and it's not hard to see them winning 5-6 of those. If they are within striking distance after their last 3 games against the Astros, this will be a team to watch out for.

On to Baltimore.

The Orioles also sit 71-71 with 20 games remaining.

1 @ Cleveland (currently losing at the time this is being written)
3 @ Toronto
4 @ Yankees
3 vs Red Sox
4 vs Rays
2 @ Pittsburg
3 @ Rays

The next week is going to be the telling week, and should they manage to stay afloat after their games against the Red Sox and Yankees, they could be a team to watch out for. It's easy to see how they could win 12-13 games out of their last 20, but it's hard to imagine them winning 15 of 20 (I have it on authority only the Royals are allowed to do that). Overall I see their chances being slim, but should they manage to walk all over Tampa Bay they have a shot.

Onto California!

The Angels sit at 73-70 with 19 games remaining. Their schedule isn't easy, but apparently they have some guy named Trout who is supposed to be pretty good at baseball, so who knows?

3 vs Astros
3 vs Texas
3 vs Cleveland
3 @ Astros
4 vs White Sox
3 vs Seattle

Could they win 13 of their last 19? Possibly, but unlikely. Cleveland and Houston are power houses, and Texas and Seattle are hanging around. Even if they manage to win 5 of 9 against Houston and Cleveland, and win every other series, that's 12 wins. Capping them at 85 wins seems very reasonable, and they, like some of the other teams on this list, will likely fade in the next week or two with this level of competition.

Next up are those pesky Twins.

The Twins sit at 74-69 with 19 games remaining. Their last 19 games is a mixture of the best and the worst:

2 vs Padres
4 vs Blue Jays
3 @ Yankees
4 @ Detroit
3 @ Cleveland
3 vs Detroit

It's safe to assume they get swept by Cleveland, because Cleveland is going to win every game for the rest of the year. The series against the Yankees could prove pivotal, as it could flip-flop the top teams (more on the Yankees to come). If ever there was a time to hope that Detroit and Toronto get hot, it's coming up.

It's easy to see them wining 11 of these games, and I'd be surprised if they didn't win at least 11. I'd say their cap is 14 of 19, so 88 wins is likely the max they can have, but 85-88 seems very reasonable.

Now to the Yankees:

The Yankees sit at 77-65, with 20 games remaining.

3 @ Rays
4 vs Baltimore
3 vs Twins
3 @ Toronto
1 vs Royals
3 vs Rays
3 vs Toronto

The Yankees are unlikely to run away with the WC, but it's hard to see them losing a spot as they are a pretty good baseball team. I had hoped to see them playing the Red Sox, Cleveland or Houston some, but that's not to be. I don't really think it maters how many games they win as even if they go 10-10, they still probably hold onto a WC spot. It's much more important which games they win.

They need to beat the Rays, yes, but more importantly they need to beat up Baltimore and sweep the Twins. I'm never one to really root for the Yankees (in fact, other than "mama" and "dada", my first words were "Damn Yankees", and my father is incredibly proud of that fact), but there are 7 games coming up, starting Thursday, where we really want them go to go on a roll. Knocking Baltimore out of the race and beating up on the Twins... these are important factors for the Royals to make a WC spot.

And finally, the Royals.

The Royals sit at 71-71 with 20 games remaining. On paper, the Royals have a pretty soft schedule for those 20 games.

3 vs White Sox
4 @ Cleveland
3 @ Toronto
3 @ White Sox
1 @ Yankees
3 vs Detroit
3 vs Diamond Backs

I estimate that it will take at least 85 wins to get into the Wild Card, meaning the Royals need to win a minimum of 14 games in their last 20. The Diamond Backs are a pretty good team to face the last 3 games of the season, and are competing for a WC spot of their own. Cleveland hasn't actually dominated KC that badly this year, winning 9 of 15 so far. We need to hope to at least split that series, but really, winning every series the remainder of the year is the only way to make it.

Sweeping Chicago, splitting against the Indians, 2-3 from Toronto, 2-3 from Chicago, 1 from Yankees, 2-3 from Detroit and 2-3 from Diamond Backs gets us to 14 wins.

There is NO leeway in the Royals remaining games. They can't lose a series. They need to get hot, and get hot now. Look for them to take 2 of 3 from Chicago in the next series. Honestly, if they don't, there's almost no chance of them making it into a WC spot.

I actually have given up on the Royals this year. Mathematically there's just too much against them. I gave up the division a few weeks ago, after they got swept by Cleveland,and I gave up the WC two nights ago after losing the first 2 against the Twins.

I would love to be proven wrong. I would love to have one more playoff game (even if it's in New York), even if we lose the Wild Card this time, getting one more game, game 163. Because the next few years aren't looking too great for us.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.