With the trade deadline looming and the continued pursuit of the roster/organization on everyone's mind  it's worthwhile to take a look at the moves Dayton Moore has already made. Part I takes a look at how the position players with the big club. Stay tuned for Part II (big league pitchers) and Part III (minor leaguers).

It was 2006, Lebanon and Israel were doing their thing, FEMA did a "heckuva job" in New Orleans and the Royals were supposedly beginning an era of competence (as per Posnanski after Opening Day) thanks to a bizarre December spending spree that brought in Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, Joe Mays, Paul Bako and Reggie Sanders. (Vintage RR posts here and here.) Meanwhile, the franchise was a full season behind the Beltran trade and preparing for the Jackson County Stadium Tax Subsidy Vote. In a stunning coincidence, Bud Selig "promised" Kansas City an All-Star game pending a proper allocation of JC's limitless public monies.

To a surprising extent, the 2006 lineup, as Moore more or less inherited it, remains the 2008 edition. You can find good teams that have had more turnover than this:

	2006	2008
C	Buck	Buck
1B	Mientkiewicz	Gload
2B	Grudzielanek	Grudzielanek
3B	Teahen	Gordon
SS	Berroa	Pena
RF	Sanders	Teahen
CF	DeJesus	DeJesus
LF	Brown	Guillen
DH	Sweeney	Butler
B-C	Bako	Olivo
Bench	Graffanino	Gathright
Bench	German	German
Bench	Stairs	Aviles
Bench	Costa	Callaspo

The 2006 Royals went 62-100.

You can quibble with some of these slots as they are crudely defined here -- for example, I'm considering Gathright a bench player in the table above, although he's actually played more innings in CF than anyone else -- but for quick and dirty purposes these are the positions according to the organizational masterplan for the two seasons. As in Gathright's case, for some of the players "bench" may not be quite the right label, but more or less it works, and I've included only the additional players who logged significant playing time.

What stands out is how much holdover there has been. Three of the positions are exactly the same, although perhaps not without some controversy. Buck is still the primary catcher, Grudzielanek is still at second base and DeJesus is still in center. Moreover, Mark Teahen remains an everyday fixture in the lineup, although he's shifted from third base to the outfield, and Esteban German is still a utility player. When you factor in that Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, lineup cornerstones if everything goes well, are also Baird-era draftees, the 2008 lineup remains a very Allard creation.

Subjectively and intuitively, the 2008 edition should be better than their 2006 progenitor: the holdovers (Buck, Teahen, DeJesus) should be hitting their peaks, Emil Brown has been upgraded to Jose Guillen and a decline-phase Mike Sweeney has been converted to supposed prospect and pure hitter Billy Butler. Miguel Olivo is a huge upgrade over Paul Bako. Unfortunately, the sum of their parts just hasn't quite added up to being much more better than the Minky era. The 2006 team ended up averaging 4.67 runs per game, better than the current squad's 4.06 average.

Huh?

To start, the holdovers, DeJesus somewhat excepted, have failed to truly break out. Grudz and German are still around and are, as the man sang, still the same. We wait still on Gordon and Butler to truly arrive. Seemingly really easy upgrades at SS and 1B have turned into, umm... Tony Pena Jr. and Ross Gload. This bears repeating. Just find someone better than the worst overall player in the game (Berroa) and one of the weakest first basemen (Minky). He couldn't do it. Where have you gone Doug Mientkiewicz? Jose Guillen has had one insanely awesome month and two bad ones. Finally, although Miguel Olivo has out-hit Paul Bako, Dayton Moore's first big league pickup, Joey Gathright, has eaten up a ton of playing time over the last three seasons and consistently failed to hit. In 237 plate appearances this year, Gator has three extra-base hits. Three. In 248 last year, he had eight. Gains like the Bako/Olivo and the Brown/Guillen exchanges have been mitigated by players like Gathright.

Over the last few months there's been a persistent meme that Moore is focused on rebuilding -- really, "building" should be used throughout this post, since it was so long ago that anything around here was actually built -- the organization's pitching coffers, and that the lineup will be more of a patchwork project. And while it isn't yet clear that the team's lineup core is actually enough of one to bother building around, it was certainly more than there was among the hurlers. Sure, in 2008, Butler and Gordon are disappointments, but they are near locks to improve, at least a little bit. There are problems however, and Moore is not immune criticism for his utter failure to upgrade the roster at two slots, SS and 1B, that looked to be no-brainer/any AAA lifer would have been better. He hasn't found better bench options than what Allard managed in Stairs/Costa/Graffy and it's possible he's done worse.

Lastly, there's the large but mysterious issue of defense. The quality of the team's defense is harder to definitively pin-down, but according to BP's defensive efficiency data, the 2008 squad is, relative to competition, an improvement. Then again, the 2006 team was terrible, posted a D-Eff of .682, good for 28th best in baseball and 13th in the AL. The current team stands at 19th overall and 9th in baseball. (Although the pure number, .698, is not much different.) So regarding defense, Moore has taken a terrible team and produced a below-average one.

The Royals hired Moore on May 31, 2006 and after over two years of his stewardship, the offense is worse than the bad one he inherited.  Considering that he also had nothing to do with Butler or Gordon, and with no notable position prospects in the system, we must conclude that Dayton's handling of the position players in blue and white has been akin to Argentina's performance in the Falklands War: at best, a disappointment, and at worst an abject failure.

 

Frustrating loss tonight, and back to eight games under .500. Those dastardly Orioles! Essentially this is the result I expected last night, only this time Sherrill was able to finish the job.

• According to the fangraphs.com's version of WPA, Mike Aviles was the worst Royal of all tonight, at least among position players. An 0-5 with two GIDPs will do that. When he wasn't GIDPing, he was leaving the bases loaded. Has Aviles let success go to his head? Is he an unclutch destroyer of our national innocence like Alex Rodriguez?
• A lame and disappointing start for Hochevar, who couldn't avoid a big inning in the third, and couldn't quite keep the ball down enough.
• Your Jimmy Gobble ERA update is: 7.40. Um... not good. Not good at all. Gobble may be one of the 100 Greatest Royals of All-Time by the end of the season (Retro?) but he isn't doing anyone much good at this point.
  
• Gathright was decent tonight, getting to first base three times. Does anyone know Kenny Williams's cell number?
• Hey! Billy Butler hit another single. He's the new Grimace!
• Congrats to Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen for both homering tonight! With twenty combined homers out of third base and rightfield, the Royals have the AL Central shaking.
• Did anyone expect Alex to deliver in the 9th inning? I wasn't around on the game thread at the time, but I suspect there wasn't much juice.
  
• 19,756 people watched the game in the stands. It looks like it won't be hard for me to catch an Orioles game this September when I'm living in D.C.
  

 

The Royals finished April with a 12-15 record and ended the fifth month of the year with a 22-34 mark (now 23-34). Considering the month contained the team's epic losing streak, an overall record of 10-19 in May wasn't a total disaster, and could have been much worse.

Let's take a look at how the boys in blue did at the plate in May. First, the team totals:

	Runs	BA	OBP	SLG
K.C. Royals	101	.258	.309	.358
AL Average	120	.257	.322	.395

 

101 runs is actually not last in the league, it's tied for 11th. The Angels also scored 101 (in one fewer game) and the Mariners and Indians were worse, scoring 99 and 98 runs respectively, as the new deadball era sweeps across the American League. Despite the advantage of the DH, scoring in the American League is lower than in the NL, which of course can 100% be attributed to PEDs testing. 100%. Everyone who used PEDs was a hitter in the AL. Moving on... The Royals only hit 12 homers in May, which is remarkable. Not surprisingly, no team in the AL was anywhere close to this number, as the league average was 24 homers.It isn't anything like a full consolation, but the Royals did rip 65 doubles in May, second-most in the American League. Weirdly, the Royals continue to not hit triples, despite having some decent triplers getting regular playing time. They hit just 2 in May. Then again, no one ever got poor betting against Joey Gathright's extra base hit totals.

Speaking of Gathright, now about those individual numbers, sorted by OPS:

 

	PAs	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Miguel Olivo	75	.333	.355	.583	.939
Jose Guillen	109	.308	.327	.495	.823
Alex Gordon	120	.262	.352	.393	.745
John Buck	63	.300	.328	.400	.728
David DeJesus	120	.272	.317	.377	.694
M. Grudzielanek	94	.276	.330	.356	.686
Mark Teahen	103	.239	.320	.337	.657
Esteban German	30	.259	.323	.296	.619
Billy Butler	95	.233	.305	.302	.608
Joey Gathright	78	.264	.316	.278	.594
Alberto Callaspo	44	.205	.279	.205	.484
Ross Gload	39	.154	.175	.205	.380
Tony Pena Jr.	79	.156	.177	.182	.359

 

This is how you have a bad month. For a guy who probably won't be in the Major Leagues in 2010, Tony Pena Jr. has generated a ton of discussion this month, but he isn't standing alone in the forest of horribleness. Considering defensive value and where they play, it's certain that Ross Gload (another Dayton pickup) was the worse player in May, and Alberto Callaspo wasn't far behind. You can say the same for Billy Butler, who slugged .302 with no value on defense.

Other than Miguel Olivo's studliness and a decent month from Jose Guillen (characteristically a lack of walks drags down his performance, even when he's hitting over .300) nobody else stepped into the void. Although Gordon (and Teahen) continued to get his walks and John Buck tossed in his annual random month of hitting .300, there isn't much good displayed here. (Expect a .210 average from Buck in June.)

Pitching numbers will be up tomorrow.

Last night was apparently one hell of a game to miss. I remember, while watching the Celtics-Pistons post-game, seeing the final score on the ESPN Bottomline and saying something to the effect of "that stinks." It looked like it had turned out to be a close slugfest, one that, given it went into extra innings, could have gone either way. It was only when "KC Greinke - 8.1 IP, 3 ER" scrolled across the bottom of the screen that I began to suspect that it had been a painful loss, and even then I really didn't know until I checked the box score this morning. ESPN, as everyone here knows, would prefer to show the Red Sox failing to hit Erik Bedard all night than show Twins-Royals highlights. However, I think that might be a good thing in this particular case. Anyhow, the "earned run" tag meant I had no idea exactly how much the Royals had been leading by going into the ninth. Of course, that Greinke was still in the game indicated that they had been leading, and so my first thought was that Soria had actually had a bit of a meltdown.

Of course, that's not the way it went. You all know as well as I know what happened in the ninth inning last night, with Ramon Ramirez getting singled out of the game and giving way to the now-thoroughly dejected Joel Peralta.

One thing that would not change this night, though, was the despair felt by Peralta -- not for himself, he said, but because he let his teammates down.

"I won't sleep tonight, for sure," he said.

Yes, that definitely sound like a pitcher who gave two home runs in the span of three betters to heavily contribute to what I have little doubt will be the Royals most memorable loss of the year. I should make it clear I'm not attempting to get everyone blaming manager Trey Hillman rather than Peralta by evoking pathos, as I find it hard to blame Hillman for Peralta not being able to get Craig Monroe out. Really, with Nunez now hurting, and with Soria having pitched two games in a row, the decision last night came down to Mahay, Peralta, Yabuta, or keeping Ramon Ramirez in the game. Ramirez wasn't pitching well, so it's easy to see why Hillman turned elsewhere. Yabuta has a 6.00 ERA with no good peripherals. Craig Monroe historically hits lefties better than righties, to the tune of more power and a better OBP. Ron Mahay is left-handed, so assuming Soria wasn't ready to go, Peralta was left as the best choice for a high leverage situation. He blew it, he knows, let's move on.

We've already discussed this game at length, anyway. I'm just pointing this out because I've been critical of Trey, and others here have been a lot more critical of our fearless leader, but I don't think he takes the fall for the ninth inning. You can, as loyal2sdad pointed out, make an argument that Hillman should have just pitched either Peralta or Ramirez through the whole inning. You can also wonder why Greinke was allowed to start the inning with such a high pitch count and a 5-run lead. But either way, it's speculation that really isn't an indictment of the moves that were really made. If we all want something to complain about in regard to Hillman, it's much more debatable whether Peralta should have remained in to pitch to Justin Morneau with Mahay on the roster. Or the Gload in the outfield thing.

But I didn't write this whole thing to bury Hillman anyway. I didn't write to praise him either, because this entire team is in a funk that you usually only see once a year. If you want the bare bones consolation, we will probably go the entire year without the Royals ever playing this badly for this long. Feel better? Yeah, me neither. Maybe I'll just shut up about last night and get to the stuff I really wanted to touch on.

Notes on the Red Sox-Royals Series

Thanks to the heroic intervention of the MLB Extra Innings package, very soon I'll have the opportunity to follow more KC games without having to enlist the highlight reels and gameday. However, the four game set between the Red Sox and the Royals allowed me for the first time this year to actually see more than one Royals game in a row. It was pretty cool despite the obviously disappointing results. And yes, they were disappointing. Those of you who have been on this blog for awhile are well aware of my "split loyalties," but I was really hoping that the series would be a split so both "my teams" could have their moments. Well, I suppose I don't feel that bad that the Red Sox kind of beat up the Royals now that the Royals are getting beat up by everyone, if that makes sense to anyone. Anyhow, I have other places to go in this article, so onto the stuff that I jotted down during the series:

1. The improvements that Alex Gordon has made over last year were evident through the entire series, during which he was one of the few Royals offensive players who distinguished themselves. He looked more patient, more comfortable, and more disciplined than when I got to see him play last year.
2. Gil Meche looked as if he was starting to get turned around, K'ing 9 over seven innings and taking the hard luck loss in the second game of the series. Say what you will about the opposing points of view in the field of pitch count general pitcher workload research, but I think that poor Meche was suffering from a 200-inning, high-pitch count hangover that seems to finally be clearing up. It's like that time where I drank Ice 101 during finals week and didn't begin to function until approximately 2 PM the next morning. My god, that stuff is evil. Thanks to my friend Buddy, who recommended taking more shots of it than were necessary.
3. Joakim Soria - great man, or greatest man? Even though Soria only appeared in one game...and stuggled with his control...in the rain, I could still see the awesome stuff that he has. I was sitting next to a rather skeptical Red Sox fan during his outing, who made fun of me for saying that Soria had great control because Joakim walked two people in the rain. I had a good chuckle when Soria escaped the jam and then Mike Timlin struggled with his control and walked one in the rain on his way to creating his own save situation in the ninth. Funny stuff.
4. Contrary to whenever I saw him in the "highlights" earlier in the year, Jose Guillen had his timing down and more closely resembled the decent power hitter he's been in the past. You know this, but the difference was clearly visible.
5. Brett Tomko is not a victim of bad luck when it comes to his hittablility. After seeing his stuff, I don't think he's got enough to keep his BABIP at league average. I just bring this up because, other than his H/9, he looks like he is underperforming his peripheral numbers. After seeing how mediocre his stuff is, I don't think he's playing by the "normal" .290-.300 BABIP rule.
6. Billy Butler is sitting too far back in his stance, and almost never seems to get his weight forward into his swings. I know I'm not a scout, but it's odd to see a man that muscular trying to fight off pitch after pitch. In any case, he's a data point against the pitching coach. He looked completely lost in the Sox-Royals series.
7. Ross Gload is done. He doesn't look capable of hitting major league pitching. His numbers are terrible, and he's older than you think.
8. Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez both looked impressive in their outings. It's hard to believe that Nunez has come full circle and become a very good reliever, but he has. Ramirez looks like a good find, as if you look at his line in 2006 he was quite good before getting hurt last year.

 

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That really happened?

An inside-the-park homer (or a single & error, but whatevs) to tie the game in the ninth? It looked like the completely bit of random felicity that can turn a losing streak around. Only it didn't.

The Royals still lost. Obviously.

 

 

And yes, I'm quoting Nada Surf in the title.

Don't look now, but our "surprising Royals" are back in familiar territory:

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As Sam Mellinger said today on Ball Star , there's plenty of blame to go around, but it's especially the lack of run production that's dragging the team down. Sure, contributing to the streak has been a fair amount of bad luck, like how the last few offensive nights of competence have coincided with bad nights from the pitching staff, but honestly, going 2-5 over this last week instead of 0-7 wouldn't make much of a difference, other than leaving the Royals at 11-11 and over .500 for another few days.

We're only at loss number seven, but I'm already running out of things to say, from throwing out numbers to talking about fan/managerial cliches to trying to suggest how silly managerial veneration is.

The horror:

	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	2Bs
Royals	.256	.311	.348	11	31
A.L. Average	.263	.336	.404	20	41

 

Barry is not walking through that door, and if he does, I'll eat my hat tomorrow at RR Fest. Not only does he seem like an odd fit for a supposedly young, not-quite-there yet Royals team, he's also, at least in term's of perception, not a Dayton Moore type and could potentially cause a fan/media meltdown where ever he goes. (Not that I think this reaction would be justified, or that Barry's baggage is actually his own baggage.  No, the party that "has baggage" in this case is the aggrieved media. Barry is by all accounts a loner and a sulking jerk, but not someone who seems that disruptive.) That being said, Dayton's surprised us before, and some smart GM could sign Bonds, showcase him for a month, have their team bear the brunt of the initial media crush, then trade him. It might happen, I just don't think the Royals will be the one's doing it.

The bigger problem is that the Royals have found that anti-sweet spot of roster design. The offense is currently terrible, and doesn't project to being much more than average, ever. The anti-sweet spot is that the lineup is also filled with guys that the team likes, guys like Ross Gload and David DeJesus and Mark Teahen and John Buck, who aren't terrible players, and who have some skill, but who, ultimately, aren't pushing the team towards 800 runs either. With Butler and Gordon likely still a year away from truly breaking out, your left with a lineup without any elite production and just a group of OK guys. This could potentially create a terrible problem down the line, because aside from shortstop, I'm not even sure where the Royals should upgrade. Step one is getting to mediocrity, but now the Royals will need to replace two of the mediocre guys with actually good players, and I'm not sure how that's going to be done. Incidentally, this is precisely what they were trying to do with the Emil Brown/Jose Guillen swap. But unfortunately, Jose Guillen is exactly in this same class of player, maybe only slightly above.  The Royals have a bland lineup filled  with guys they like, which is a sticky situation.

OK, I'm heading out the door. Preparing to drive to KC for RR Fest. I hope to meet a few of y'all on Saturday in the K's East Lot, or up in section 304.

Two batting-order bullets:

- Alex Gordon (.317/.371/.488), essentially the only guy really hitting the ball with any authority, continues to hit 6th for no real reason. Last night, in the first game, Hillman put him 5th, which still seemed silly, but maybe a step in the right direction. Nope, in the second game he was back at 6th. Now, from both old-school and new-school perspectives, this shouldn't be a big deal, namely, either Gordon is comfortable in that slot, and you wouldn't want to throw him off and overall lineup order doesn't matter much anyway. This is all fine and good, but go back to the 9th inning of the second game last night. What happens if Esteban German gets a hit, putting the tying run on-base? Unfortunately, three more dudes have to not make outs before Gordon hits.

- In that same vein, Mark Teahen (Mark Quinn Award nominee) has not budged from the 3-hole, since randomly replacing Gordon there for the fourth game. Just as the selection of a manager is mostly important because it gives us insight into how the General Manager thinks, the lineup card is mostly useful as a demonstration of what the field Manager expects and envisions. I like Teahen, and there's a case to be made that the Royals are doing the right thing by being patient. It would certainly be worse if they had him hitting 8th or something. Still, its striking that Hillman can't see what seems obvious to this underwear typing idiot blogger, Mark Teahen is a classic #2 hitter. Basically, his entire game at this point is being a good OBP guy.

 

There’s been a consistent interest in lineup talk this spring, despite the fact that the Royals don’t really seem to have the kind of roster composition that would make it a truly meaty subject. Because the Royals don’t really have an elite hitter yet, it doesn’t even really fit to dream about having your DH with a huge OBP hit leadoff or anything like that. No, regarding this cast of likely starters, with their lack of extreme power or patience, the only looming problem of any consequence is the likelihood that one of the killer Gs – Grudzielanek or Gload – will end up wasting our time near the top of the lineup, where their veteran presence and grittiness won’t do much to help their sub-par, batting average based, offensive profiles. (Can you tell I got started on this before Opening Day?) While it still isn’t clear how the Shealy/Gload/Butler logjam will sort itself out, lets take a look at the numbers generated by Pinto’s lineup toy and the mega-projections generated by NyRoyal.

Note, for time purposes I could only get into what appears to be the default scenario: Gload and Butler in the lineup, Buck catching. If anyone wants to play with Gathright, Callaspo and Olivo scenarios, I welcome your help. It seems unlikely Olivo would change much, since he’s basically the same hitter as Buck, perhaps ditto for DeJesus/Gathright. I'm less sure how Callaspo would jumble things, however.

Continue reading this post »

With the Santana drama finally behind us - it was somehow appropriate that JoePo's satirical blast came just before the trade was finalized - I'm sure more than one fan here in the Midwest was reminded of the Royals' predicament at the turn of the century, when the Royals traded Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran largely because of budget concerns. Dipping into fansites and blogs over the last week would make one think it was 2000 again, instead of 2008, with real consternation about the fact that the Twins had to trade Santana. It's less of an issue now, but from the mid-90s on a pervading sense of loathing dominated our mindset as Royals fans, and indeed, the mindset of many fans across the country, with the cause being a profound sense of economic injustice. After some modest changes by MLB and the success of small-market teams in Oakland and Minnesota, that's less of a concern now, and certainly nothing like the issue it was then. Maybe the reason everyone missed or looked the other way on steroids was the fact that talk radio and column inches were dominated by endless recitations, often in the same purple prose we've come to expect from steroids sermonizing, of how unfair the game's salary structure was. Moreover, the ownership in many cities went out of its way to perpetuate this meme, to varying degrees of sincerity. As you may recall, numerous protests actually took place during Royals-Yankees games here in Kansas City, and a riot damn near broke out when Chuck Knoblauch (illustrious former Royal) returned to the Metrodome in 2001. I wasn't blogging then, but I was fairly active on a Royals yahoo-groups email list. After every losing streak, every trading deadline (whether the Royals were involved or not) and every major off-season signing, we'd flare up into a 15-email thread about how THE SYSTEM HAS GOT TO CHANGE!

By the time Carlos Beltran was traded in 2004, the anger of those times was fading. Moneyball had been out for a year, popularizing the legend of Billy Beane, and shifting the discussion from salaries to smarts. Of course, for the hyper-fandom that was already active online, everyone already knew about the A's. Better yet, the Yankees stopped winning every year, which seemed to help immensely. Yes, the Royals were in a tough spot, but if they were smart, if they drafted well, if they took the right chances, it wouldn't matter. At sites like Baseball Prospectus, people actually started to argue that having a small payroll was actually a blessing in disguise because you never killed yourself with a horrible Chan Ho Park type contract in the first place. So, for a variety of reasons - including the absolute insanity of the Red Sox-Yankees universe of hype that lasted from 03-05 - people started to focus on other things, including steroids.

Amazingly, first as a small-market apostate to the Yankees, then as an accused PEDs user, Chuck Knoblauch has actually destroyed our National Innocence twice.

 For that reason, the Beltran Trade was a hinge moment for Royals fans, connecting on one side to all the bad old days of the post-strike era and on the other side, reaching forward to happier times, including today. There'd been at least two solid years of whining and self-pitying regarding his inevitable trade or worse, empty free agent departure, a mood deeply tied to the team's previous experiences with Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye. Damon was the first to go, traded in January of 2001 to Oakland, and Jermaine Dye was traded in-season later that year, to, uhh, Oakland again. Aside from about a year long period from May 2003 to May 2004, when we all still loved Berroa, the fanbase was not only angry to see those players go, but bitter at how Allard Baird had been fleeced by Billy Beane. As horrible as it was to be a Royals fan in, say, 2005, when we were setting new records for losing EVERY season, I still contend it was actually much worse in 2002: the Royals had no money to spend and were being run by fools.

Of course, the complete randomness of 2003 threw everything off in everyone's mind for at least another two years. Its hard to imagine now, but there was actually an eighteen month period (or so) when Allard Baird was being supported by not only casual fans, but the hardcores as well, including the national smart set. He'd always had good scouting bona fides and had had some success finding bit players in strange places. Now, he'd embraced OBP and a Beane-esque drafting strategy. He choose Calvin Pickering over Ken Harvey (for about five seconds) and on and on. The ironic thing is this: by the time he traded Beltran, just about everyone had given up on him again, even though in hindsight, its hard to imagine a better move he ever made. When the Royals collapsed again in 2004, we were back at square one: we can't keep our good players, and we trade them for pennies on the dollar. It didn't help either when it turned out that, again, Oakland was involved as one of the trading partners.

So, in honor of the Santana trade, in honor of all these bad memories, lets look back at the Beltran deal, when the Royals said goodbye to likely the best position player the team had had since George Brett. The way we were, 2004.

The package:

So the Astros got Beltran and the A's got Dotel.

The Royals got:

1. Mike Wood
   
2. Mark Teahen
   
3. John Buck
   
4. Cash

Buck and Wood were added to the big league roster and both made their debuts with the Royals in less than a week's time. Teahen played out the rest of 2004 in Omaha (were his production immediately plummeted) and debuted as a starter in 2005. As for the cash, according to insiders, Christmas 2004 for the Glass family was among the best on record. If I may signpost rather robotically again, lets take a look at these parts one-by-one, save the cash.

1. Mike Wood (stats). Wood gave the Royals 34 big league starts from 2004-6, as well as 53 additional appearances out of the bullpen. He was a bit below average in '04 and '06, but in '05 he posted an ERA+ of 99 across 115 innings, all while earning the league minimum. Nowadays, if a Dayton Moore pickup manages the same, we all take it as another data point in the merits of the Bravest Way to run a baseball team. (Just sayin'.) While Wood struggled with injuries - like 90% of young pitchers - there were scenarios in which he could have been a valuable swingman, especially if the team was developing a young rotation. The Royals were sorta trying to do this at the time, but nearly everyone turned out to be horrible. In 2006 Wood started strong but was inconsistent and sometimes terrible and his days in KC came to an end. Usually the throw-in guy in a trade is a C prospect who never does anything. In this case, Mike Wood was the throw-in, a low-ceiling type who nevertheless has shown enough that, barring major injury, he'll keep getting one-year deals and Spring Training invites until he's 35. If he strings together 30 good innings one year and lucks into a low-ERA, he'll retire with at least $10 million in his pocket. I must admit I was always irrationally partial to Wood, and am convinced the Royals misused him (see Affeldt, Jeremy) and only saw what he couldn't do, not what he could.
2. John Buck (stats) Buck was a well-known prospect when the Royals acquired him, although his stock was falling after a rough season at AAA in 2003. Thanks to the Beltran trade, the Royals got four years of John Buck for around $1.4 million, not bad when you consider, despite some flaws, he's still an adequate, if not above-average catcher. (Catching is at a weird place right now, it seems like there's no middle class, just a few truly great hitters, then a million Paul Bakos.) This is, as Royals Authority put it, The Funny Thing About John Buck. Like his fellow Beltran-bountymate Mark Teahen, Buck is something of an enigma, mixing long stretches where he looks awful and topped out, with intense, brightly lit periods of incredible brilliance, like fireworks against a black sky. In '04, '06 and '07, his monthly splits were all over the place. He's nearly a lock to give you one month when he posts a SLG over .500 and another around .150, year after year. In 2004, as a rookie playing for no real reason, for example, his monthly SLGs went like this: .154, .231, .513, .538. In 2006 his monthly OPS breakdown was: .598, .674, .953, .550, .646, .844. Of course, in many ways this is normal for many players, its only more exaggerated with low BA guys. Still, its all part of the John Buck experience. All of that being said, for where he is on the pay-scale, with a nearly impeccable record of health, John Buck is an asset. Not a huge one, but still certainly an effective use of his roster spot.
3. Mark Teahen (stats) Does anyone else have Teahen fatigue? In April of 2006 I wrote, in an interview with a Devil Rays blog, "it seems like I spend my whole life talking about Mark Teahen", which of course was BEFORE he became one of the most mysterious players in baseball. He's a fan favorite, seems to be a genuinely good dude, and has a well-rounded skill set and team-first personality that makes him someone you want to succeed. Yet, we still don't know what he's going to be, no matter how much we talk about it. Its ok Mark, he's only 25, and has been documented, men aren't exactly attacking their 20s with great brio anymore. I've got a few years on Mark myself, and my life is pretty pathetically nebulous. Basically, my fiancée sees potential and everyone else sees another random grad student. So I know how he must feel, minus the bank account and tribute videos on youtube. I get it. OK... lets run through this again: good OBP, solid BA, less than frightening power, especially for a corner outfielder. Power has made appearances before, it could come back, but, it might not. (Obligatory mention of the fact that he was an absolute man for the second-half of 2006.) Solid glove at multiple positions, reportedly one of the better baserunners in the American League. Was the team MVP in 2006. Injuries have played a role in uneven production. Has only cost the Royals close to the league minimum for three seasons.

So where does that leave us? The most legitimate criticism of the trade is that Baird didn't get back an elite player in return. There is a school of thought that would argue that the Royals would have been better off grabbing three 18 year old pitchers with a 1% chance of becoming elite players. (This was Sheehan's take, despite also being a somewhat old-school attitude.) What Baird did, quite obviously, was go the exact other way, walking away with three guys who nobody thought had any upside. While we could get into linguistic arguments about what makes an "elite" player, the rather incredible thing is that, actually, Teahen and Buck both have a larger chance of breaking out than most imagined for them when they were prospects. At the time, many were convinced that Baird was fixated on fitting certain positional needs, as opposed to finding the best players available. Two of his desired spots were catcher and third, where the Royals had almost nothing coming up in the system. Perhaps Baird could have pulled a better deal if he didn't think this way, but we'll likely never know. (Allard Baird's tell-all interview with RR, coming in 2011!)

At the very least, the Royals received, roughly, nine seasons of adequate performance, at the league-minimum salary from Wood, Teahen and Buck in exchange for half a season of Carlos Beltran. If either Buck or Teahen had truly flamed out, then I think we'd have to evaluate the trade differently, but of course that didn't happen. Getting low-upside guys is bland and not generally the way to go. But when you get THREE low-upside fellas who actually do alright, well, that's a different story. It's the low-upsiders who stall in AAA that kill you. Without Teahen and Buck, we'd have been cursed with even more low-level FA types that would have done nothing but waste the team's money and time. Considering what catcher has looked like, especially, this is something to be thankful for. In a pure baseball sense, Teahen's ridiculous two-month run in 2006 was about a good as Beltran ever was, so he replaced the elite production we'd lost to that trade right there. Of course, it doesn't work that way, but, there you go.

While you can't compare the environments for deals precisely, I think its safe to say Allard Baird got more for half a season of Carlos Beltran than the Twins got for a year of Johan Santana. More importantly, somewhat amazingly, the trade actually has become something of a cornerstone of the franchise. Buck and Teahen haven't become All-Stars, but they are foundational members of the roster, and have kept the Royals afloat simply by not being major disasters. There is a secret merit in simply not being terrible, in any field. Remember this my children.

The Beltran trade ended one era and began another. Unfortunately, Allard wasn't going to be part of that new age, but I think all parties are at peace with that now.  And so, Royals Review nods approvingly in the general direction of the memory of Allard Baird's time in KC. Towards Boston I guess, or wherever Allard is tonight. The Beltran trade was that rarest of creatures, a ménage a trois in which everyone, Houston, Oakland and Kansas City, left happy.

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Postscript

Finally, a personal note. Back in 2004, when the trade hit, I was pecking away on Blogger, long before anyone had dreamed up what would become Royals Review. The night the trade was made, I was staying at my grandparents' house. They actually had internet access, but it was a) dialup on a b) ancient computer with no memory. The kind of situation where you click the "text-only" option if you see it on a website. Sometime after dinner I saw the trade announcer on ESPN, and immediately retired to the den to post something on my blog. This was news! The world waited for me! I mean, I was gonna get like 50 hits tonight alone!

Despite also passing along Neyer's approval, I'm struck by how negative I was. But, returning to the beginning of this post, those were pretty dark times for us in Royals land. Incidentally, the trade came just as the always-frightening Cardinals series loomed, and they were, uhh, kinda awesome in 2004. Well, the Royals would be swept in that series, but that's neither here nor there. My first major post (I won't quote the whole thing) said this:

That's the kind of brilliant analysis you can only get from a blog, huh!

Here was what I said the next day, when I really bought into the Sheehan line.

I may have to bring back the sarcastic closing-line of BELIEVE in 2008. Unfortunately, I think the Royals won't lose enough to really make it pay off.

Ah, our beloved, mysterious, Mark Teahen. He's something of a fixture now, having been mostly a regular since 2005. In three big league seasons, he's managed to post a slugging in the .300s, .400s, and .500s, and in 2006 posted one of the most dramatic splits in team history, turning into Arod for three months to the tune of a .318/.392/.582 second half line. While his off-again, on-again, power frustrates, with his broad skill set (good defense at multiple positions, good baserunning, good OBP) he's a fun player to root for, and someone I'm glad is a Royal.

Onto the Five Fun Facts About Mark Teahen

1. A California Canadian, Mark attended St. Mary's College in Moraga CA. Surprisingly, 62 Gaels have made it to the bigs, including Von Hayes and Tom Candiotti. At present, it looks like Teahen is the only former-student currently in the bigs, although, you never know when James Mouton might re-emerge again.
2. Teahen has faced Jose Contreras and Mark Buehrle more than any other pitchers. (Thanks unbalanced schedule!) In 33 career PAs against Contreras, Teahen is .143/.273/.321, but against the Unspellable One, in 30 PAs, he's much better, hitting .433/.433/.567. Teahen has homered twice against five pitchers: Kris Benson (3 PAs), Jeremy Bonderman, Bartolo Colon, Cliff Lee and Javy Vasquez. Teahen's first career HR was against Matt Morris of the Cardinals, on May 21, 2005, in the 2nd inning of a 6-5 Cards win.
3. Teahen, ever mysterious, ever flexible, has appeared in every batting order position save leadoff man in his career. His most common slot has been 3rd, where he's started in 139 games. From there its 6th (82 starts), 7th (61 starts) and 5th (36 starts). As for flexibility with the glove, Teahen has played 1992 innings at 3rd, 1150 in RF, 49 at 1st and 30 in CF.
4. Mark has remained patient against lefties, but has nevertheless struggled to grab hits, or hit for power against them. On his career, he's a .243/.307/.381 hitter against southpaws. Still, he's not as bad as he once was. In 2005 he hit .200/.256/.342 against lefties, followed by .274/.333/.481 in 2006, and .255/.328/.344 in his disappointing 2007.
5. As any reader of Royal Retro's 100 Greatest Royals Series might expect, Teahen is already creeping up the team leaderboard in numerous categories. He's 40th in at bats, 36th in runs (one behind Raul Ibanez), 40th in hits, 34th in doubles (tied with Raul, four behind Emil Brown), 21st in triples (one behind Berroa) and even 37th all time in home runs.  

Questions about Teahen's future continue, and at this point its safe to say no one is quite clear. In 2007, friend of RR Marc Normandin profiled Teahen at BP, concluding:

Can he return to his tremendous 2006 form? Will he land somewhere between '06 and '07 in '08 (there's an ugly question)? Only time will tell (horrible cliche) patience will reveal the answer.

The night before Fanfest, Teahen will be hosting a Fashion Show.

I was an awesome singles hitter in little league, as practically everyone was. You see, back then all you had to do to get a hit on the score was hit the ball not directly at a fielder and you had about a ninety percent chance of it getting through or beating the lollipop throw. Some kids have already learned how to drive the ball a bit in little league, but barely anyone knows how to field. There was about one pitcher in our league out of six that we faced that could get through a game without walking more than he struck out. It was definitely a hitter's league, and my last year on the little league field I hit .536. I couldn't tell you what my OBP was, but just to brag I'm going to write that it had to be at least .650. Slugging average? Not so much, but I was good.

A funny thing happens to you, though, when your average gets above .500. I realized, twelve years old at the time, that I could go 2-for-4 and my average would go down. 2-for-4 is a pretty gosh darn good day's work, but it was actually below average for me on the season (and god knows how many other players). It struck me as an odd pecularity at the time and, obviously, the memory has stuck with me. For those interested, my Indians defeated the White Sox for the championship that year, sweeping a best two-of-three series from those baseball villains that included my neighbor down the street who had sold out after coming up in the minors with me.

In the majors, you don't have many people hitting .500 these days, so 2-for-4's no longer a good example. You do, however, have players every year who hit .380 for the first month and then see their average decline even when they get a hit in every three at-bats. It's an unwinnable game that way, in that you'll come back to earth even if you hit reasonably well. The flip side of this is the player who starts out his season badly, to the point where a 1-for-4 night raises his pathetic batting average. If we're talking about a player who's sub-.200, one measly bingle in five at-bats can cause a rise.

Then, there's Jason LaRue. Jason could go 1-for-6 in the next game he plays, and his batting average would go up. That's how bad he's been at the plate this season. I know I've brought this up before, but he's managed to hurt the team well above and beyond the impact you can expect from a back-up catcher. LaRue has been--I love typing this--0-for-August. He's 0-for-19 since the month started. At least he avoided not getting on base all month, as he managed a walk against the White Sox on the 22nd. Yippee. Saying "at least he had a walk this month" is like saying "at least that ant is still alive" after an unfortunate insect has been torn in half by a particularly sadistic eight-year-old. It's not much consolation to the ant. Or the Royals.

For those wondering where all of this is going (other than to crow about my little league abilities) NYRoyal's diary below prompted me too examine just how badly of the Royals are compared to the theoretical "league average hitter" team. As all of you know, widely-felt preseason expectation were that this team was going to be pretty good offensively and bad at pitching. That hasn't even come close to being true, as heroes like Gil Meche, Joakim Soria, and Brian Bannister have saved the pitching staff from nigh-certain embarrassment. Meanwhile, the Royals--LaRue being the most extreme example--have flailed at the plate quite a bit this year despite notable improvements over the course by guys like Alex Gordon, Mark Grudzielanek, Billy Butler, and (shrug) Emil Brown. So how do the Royals measure up to the league averages by position?

Catcher LA: .252/.315/.391

John Buck - .226/.316/.459

Jason LaRue - .141/.230/.275

Buddy Bell's self-fulfilled prophecy has, uh, come true. Neither catcher is hitting well right now, but it still should be painfully obvious that Buck has waaaaaaaay more value than LaRue. In fact, even though he's hitting .228, Buck's OBP is one tick above average for AL catchers and his slugging percentage is a nifty 68 points higher. In other words, Buck's secondary skills (power, higher walk rate) are carrying him to the point where he's still above average. Was anyone else surprised to see how low the league average was for American League catchers?

Jason LaRue is terrible at hitting a baseball. No two ways above it.

First Base LA: .270/.348/.446

Ross Gload - .301/.321/.462

Ryan Shealy - .221/.286/.308

Anyone else long for the days where Ryan Shealy was going to be a slugging presence in the middle of the line-up for the Royals? Shealy OPSed nearly 800 in his first go-round with the Royals in 2006, but between injuries and general suckiness, he proved totally incapable of follow his 2006 act. It really was a bit uncanny how bad he was. Get well soon, Ryan, your MLB career depends on it.

For you Ross Gload fans out there, this is me acknowledging that Gload has exploded all the way up to the vicinity of the DH-diluted average line for an AL first basemen (though the loss in OBP hurts more than the gain in power). If he were a guy who played a position up the middle of the diamond, I'd like him. He's not, and the end result is he's logged a lot of playing time at first that hasn't turned out as bad as I would have expected. He's absitively posolutely not the future at first for the Royals, but keeping him around to sub at the corners is fine.

Second Base LA: .282/.339/.413

Mark Grudzielanek - .304/.346/.439

Esteban German - .265/.357/.369

Another fine season for Grudzielanek, as he ends up being a pretty nifty player at second when you factor in his (generally accepted) above average defense. He's outstripped the LA second basemen on all three hitting line fronts as his batting average his risen steadily after a slow start. The lone problem with Grudzielanek is that he has to keep hitting around three hundred to keep this up, and players with his skillset--low walk totals, no speed--can disappear off the map when they get old. No disrespect meant to Mark, of course. He's an oldie, and, for now, he's a goody.

German's batting average is running a little low for him, and so he really hasn't been as good as Grudzielanek to this point in the year. If he gets back up around .280, the Grudzielanek-German celebrity deathmatch needs to be arranged to settle this matter once and for all. In any case, German's been a useful reserve again this year, with a very good walk rate that suggests he could hold down a starting job at second if someone gives him a shot.

Shortstop LA: .270/.323/.394

Tony Pena Jr. - .262/.282/.345

Pena's got just nine walks all year long, which is impatience to the point where it's very very hard for any other skill to compensate for it. Pena's defense has got good, not great, reviews from the jumble of metrics and observers that one is forced to go by when getting into a serious defense evaluation discussion. He's contributed twenty doubles on the year as well, and he probably takes his vitamins and loves his mom. He's still not even close to being a league average shortstop with the bat. There are plenty of things that you can do to compensate for a .282 OBP. Examples include slugging .700, rescuing handicapped orphans from evil villains every morning, firing Joe Morgan from ESPN, feeding an entire third world country, and qualifying for sainthood. Actually the fact of the matter is that even if Pena takes the Mother Teresa life path, it would be hard for me to recommend him to an actual baseball team. He's too old to expect much in the way of improvement. Please pass the Moose Tacos.

Third Base LA: .263/.332/.425

Alex Gordon - .244/.319/.401

Another one where I expected the league average line to be higher, which just goes to show that there are some pretty crappy third basemen lying around. Gordon is not anywhere near as crappy as early in the season, and has broken the .400 mark for his slugging percentage. Amazingly, after hitting about .043 over the first eight months of the season, Gordon is twenty BA points from being almost dead-on league average.

Needless to say, we all expect Alex to be capable of greater things, but it's encouraging that he's managed to do better here in the second half. If there's anything un-obvious that bothers me here, it's that his OBP is hiked up because of HBPs. I asked Alex if he thought that was a repeatable skill, and all he did was smirk knowingly. Here's hoping he's the next Craig Biggio in that regard, because every little bit helps.

AL Left Field LA: .273/.333/.423

Joey Gathright - .347/.404/.388

Needless to say, there's more to this than meets the eye. Gathright, gosh love him for his positive contributions to KC this year, is OPSing thirty-six points above league average. If I was absolutely positive he could replicate his current line over a full season, I'd already have penciled him in as a starter for 2008 with "+" next to his name. He's a speedster who isn't bad in the outfield, and is virtually incapable of hitting for power (.41 IsoP[!]). In other words, he's kind of like good-year Scott Podsednik right now.

Joey's career line, even with this year's 160 PAs, is .269/.335/.320. That's not acceptable from a center fielder, much less a corner outfielder. How much you value Gathright depends on the weight you place on his at-bats this season as compared to the way he's hit in the majors in the past. Given this, it should be pretty unsurprising that I can't take him seriously as a good starting solution for next year. No matter how much you think 2007 represents an improvement for Gathright as opposed to a fluky 160 PAs, you are not going to convince me that he's going to hit .347 every year. Albert Pujols doesn't hit .347 every year. No one does. So, how high do you expect his average to stay once he comes back to earth? That's the question you need to ask if you want to project Gathright's value for next year. If Joey's "true ability" is hitting .305, for example, and you give him credit for his current level of power and patience, he'd hit around .305/.365/.355. Vintage Podzilla, and nowhere near good enough to start in left field and be a plus, but arguably good enough for center. If his true ability is around .285 (sixteen points higher than his career average)...well...it doesn't matter where he plays.

Center Field LA: .270/.333/.424

David DeJesus - .277/.356/.392

Super Joey - .347/.404/.388

NHZ Optimism Joey - .305/.365/.355

NHZ Pessisism Joey - .285/.345/.335

Career Line Joey - .269/.335/.320

Let the argument begin. DeJesus, with his solid hitting, patience approach, and low salary is both one of the Royals most reliable assets and at the same time one of their best trading chips. He doesn't have the "no power" rep that Joey does, and he's not paid much, so it's reasonable to assume that he could bring a pretty good return. The thing is, what with him already signed at below market prices and being a plus with the bat (if definitely not a star), trading him what with the Royals' lack of good bats seems loony when looked at from another angle.

DeJesus is probably a little above league average because twenty-odd points of OBP are worth more than the equivalent SLG points. DeJesus does have some extra base power, with fourty XBH from the lead-off position this year. His past history woudl suggest his BA is a little low right now, but not too low compared to what you expect. It appears that "this" is what he is, as preseason breakout predictions really haven't come true, but he's still a useful player at a key defensive position who you can expect to be at least average with the bat, maybe a little more. To facilitate the whole DeJesus-Gathright match-up, I include the four horsemen of Joey: Super, Optimist NHZ, Pessimist NHZ, and Career Line. Super looks like an improvement on DDJ for sure. Optimist is acceptable but nothing that DDJ can't do better. Pessimist is bad. Career line is worse. I report, you decide. Who's the better option in center next year if DDJ maintains his previous levels of performance?

Right Field LA: .287/.358/.464

Emil Brown - .245/.296/.346

Mark Teahen - .284/.351/.407

Shane "The Pain" Costa - .200/.219/.243

A recent topic on RR was that Emil and his Noodle Bat might be an illusion brought on by lack of playing time, and that Emil might be league average again if he had been allowed to play through his slump the whole way. Even so, even if you up all Brown's percentages by fourty points, his power is down this year and "league average, old, and with bad defense" is not exactly a performance that screams "he's a building block" anyway.

Mark Teahen I somehow forgot about when I initially put this article together, which must have had something to do with him being on the DL. Those familar with Mark's performance this season and his off-season shoulder surgery might have actually expected him to go the disabled left earlier as Teahen's power has been sapped compared to last year when he slugged .517. For now, it is kind of for us to know what to expect from Teahen in 2008, as I think shoulder surgery has both limited his power and upped his k-rate. While I would hesitate to predict Teahen slugging .517 next year, I think he can get back to league average for a RF--820 OPS--with room for improvement. For now, Mark's plate discipline has remained intact, which is encouraging, but he missed the LA slugging line by sixty points. We all like Teahen a lot, I think, but I really hope I'm right about a bounceback next season because a .407 SLG won't help much in a corner spot.

Shane Costa is included her so those so inclined can tell nasty jokes about him behind his back. Costa's performance this year is like a terrible sandwich from McDonald's: the next time around he'll be better, but that doesn't mean there should be a next time around for the McChicken...or for Shane.

Designated Hitter LA: .263/.350/.433

Billy Ray Butler - .295/.352/.436

He'a already a league average DH at age 21, which is yet another way of saying that Billy Ray is going to be a good one. With muscular maturation and experience will come the power he displayed in the minors, and I think I speak for us all when I say that thank god he hasn't been Huberized. Butler should be a very good hitter for a very long time. The only question now is if he can play first well enough to start there, or if he's a career DH. It's not the worst thing in the world to be a career DH.

In Conclusion, We Stink

Naturally, it's not as cut and dried as that. However, if you go by this year's batting lines, Grudzielanek, Gathright, and Butler are the three definite above averages for the Royals. If you read this closely, you know what I think about the chances of Gathright and Grudzielanek repeating their 2007 production next year. DeJesus is probably a little better than league average. Buck is defintely better than average thanks to all his dingers, but LaRue has ruined everything when it comes to catcher (maybe a slight exagerration).

In the end, we're left with a team that needs a healthy dose of power and patience in the line-up next year. For those of you who haven't already done so, I recommend you visit the FA diary by NYRoyal that's on the main page to view which guys you think could fit the bill. By my count, we need a 1B/DH, a corner outfielder (maybe two) who can hit the ball over the fence (preferably one without a BB gun), and a shortstop. Other than that, we're not bad off in the line-up if the young players like Gordon and Butler improve.

Spreadsheet Baseball returns next week but probably not at its regular time due to my return to my institute of higher learning. Sorry for my recent absence; I always get sick when falls sets in and the temperature changes, blah. For this week's edition of SB, comments/questions are welcome/encouraged.