The Royals went 10-19 in May, thanks in large part to an offense that was among the worst in the American League. The pitching staff, after a flaming hot start however, was not blameless either, as Royal hurlers have struggled for well over a month now. While overall the team's pitching numbers have been trending downward for a long time, the Royals nevertheless posted a slightly better monthly ERA in May (4.41) than they did in April (4.78).

Before looking at the May splits, it's worthwhile to take a look at the starter/bullpen breakdowns for the entire season.

 

	IP	BAA	K/BB	ERA
KC Starters	341,1	.274	2.17	4.77
AL Average	340	.264	1.95	4.25
KC Bullpen	159.2	.236	2.25	3.89
AL Average	168	.247	1.91	3.77

 

There's a lot to digest there, and I didn't even include K/9 or HR data, for the sake of clarity. First, it looks like the starters are getting killed by BAA (bad defense?) because their control of the strikezone is surprisingly good, second-best in the AL in fact, behind only Oakland. The bullpen's K/BB number is also good, although only fourth best in the league, but they've also allowed fewer hits, contributing to a better ERA. Second, I'm stunned to see that the best Royal bullpen in decades has already fallen behind league average, a shocking development that does not reflect well on Trey Hillman's usage patterns, considering the number of good options he has to work with. Bullpen management is perhaps the area in which the manager has the most impact on a team's performance, and to this point, it would be hard to say that Hillman has done well there. In Hillman's defense (somewhat), the bullpen has been hit hard by the longball (18 allowed, fourth most in the league). Overall, the Royals rank 6th in strikeouts, rarefied air for a franchise that has spent most of the decade finishing somewhere between 12th and 14th, year after year.

Before we head-off to the land of individual performance (great wines there, by the way, but the roads are terrible) let's take a look at the staff numbers month by month:

	BAA	K/BB	K/9	ERA
Royals in April	.276	2.15	6.41	4.78
Royals in May	.253	2.24	6.95	4.41

 

Again, since the beginning of April was so superb, I don't think anyone would guess that actually, the pitching improved across the board in May. One final note on the overall pitching numbers: the Royals have only allowed 10 unearned runs, which is one of the lowest totals in the AL. This either means the Royals have been lucky in how they've timed their errors or that the staff has actually been a tick better than some AL staffs who have hidden lots of bad pitching behind "unearned" runs. The Twins for instance, have allowed over 30 invisible runs, at least in terms of ERA.

Here are the May numbers for the starters, sorted by innings pitched:

	IP	K/9	HR	WHIP	ERA
Greinke	39 (6 starts)	7.85	5	1.28	4.38
Meche	37 (6 starts)	7.54	5	1.14	3.65
Hochevar	36.1 (6 starts)	6.19	4	1.49	4.71
Bannister	31.1 (5 starts)	5.74	3	1.60	6.03
Tomko	29.2 (5 starts)	7.58	7	1.25	6.37
Davies	5 (1 start)	3.60	0	1.60	1.80

Gil Meche put in a very quiet, effective May, truly anchoring the staff, but his gains were offset by meltdowns by Bannister (although his nice Sunday start is obviously not in these numbers) and Tomko. Hochevar and Greinke were so-so, although I'm not quite sure how Greinke allowed so many runs, in spite of a lowish WHIP and decent strikeout numbers. Also, take a look at Banny's numbers: he's been striking out more guys than the mythology around him (and his detractors) would suggest. It's not as if he's 2004 Jimmy Gobble or anything.

And about that guy Gobble, here are the May reliever numbers, sorted again by IP:

	IP	K/9	HR	WHIP	ERA
Mahay	12.2	5.68	1	1.58	2.84
Soria	12.1	9.49	1	0.97	2.19
Ramirez	11.0	9.82	0	1.55	6.55
Nunez	10.2	3.38	0	0.84	0.84
Peralta	10.2	5.06	4	1.03	5.06
Gobble	9.1	8.86	1	1.18	4.82
Yabuta	9.0	8.00	1	1.33	2.00
Musser	1.0	0.00	0	1.00	0.00

Wow, four homers allowed by Peralta, eh!?!? Was anybody expecting to see Ramirez's May ERA that high? Like a few staff pitchers, his overall ERA still looks low, because he logged all those 0.00 ERA innings to start the season. It's fairly clear that Ramirez torpedoed the pen this month, and the sooner Hillman realizes the league may be catching up to him, the better. Likewise, did anyone notice that Yabuta had a decent month? Or that Nunez, whom I sorta thought was fading -- posted a 0.84 ERA in May?

Baseball Prospectus keeps a stat called Leverage, which keeps track of how important the situations a reliever's usage have occurred in. Guess which reliever has the highest leverage score in Hillman's pen? Brett Tomko, of course. As for more used relievers, the leverage rankings go like this: Nunez, Soria, Ramirez, Mahay, Gobble, Nomo, Peralta, Yabuta and Musser. Ideally, at the end of the season, we'll see Soria #1 (not third) and possibly Mahay higher in the chain.  For what it's worth, according to BP's numbers Yabuta, Gobble, Tomko and Peralta have all been below average relievers, and Tomko & Peralta have also been below replacement level. Oh, and Nomo, of course, but he's gone.

Lastly, a word about defense. BP's defensive efficiency stat rates the Royals as the 10th best defense in the American League, with a D-Eff of 0.699 , i.e., 69.9% of the balls in play have been turned into outs by the defense. The Rays lead the league at 72%. The Mariners are last at 68.2%. (Again, the closeness of these numbers should tell you something about the essential realities of the game: 30% of balls in play become hits, give or take a percent.) According to the numbers at the Hardball Times, the Royals have the second-worst defense in baseball however, just ahead of the Mariners.

 

 

On Saturday night the news broke that the Royals had signed Joakim Soria had signed a contract keeping him in Kansas City possibly through 2014. According to Bob Dutton, Soria will earn eight million dollars through 2011, then a series of escalators and options begin to come into play, potentially raising the value of the contract to over $30 million. Last night, Royals Review discussed the contract with site contributors NyRoyal and NHZ over pork chops and cheddar mashed potatoes at the site headquarters (Eastern Region) in Wilmington Delaware.

 

Royals Review: What are your overall, initial, reactions?

NYRoyal: I'm very happy with this contract extension. The two guys I'd most like for the Royals to extend this year are Soria and Greinke. One is out of the way. It is a good, long contract which eats up some free agency years. And the risk to the Royals is pretty small because of the club options. I think it is a fair deal. It guarantees some good money for Soria and it keeps him on the team long-term. The deal shares both benefits and risk between Soria and the team. If Soria is a good pitcher throughout the contract term, it gives him a little less money than he'd otherwise get. If Soria busts, then he gets much more. In short, it is a fair, smart deal.

NHZ: Well, GMDM just successfully locked up one the best relief pitchers in baseball to a thoroughly reasonable guaranteed deal, and at the same time set what we all hope is a new precedent for the way the Royals will deal with the good young players that come up through the organization. In their recent history, the Royals have had trouble hanging onto this type of player. Carlos Beltran is the best example of this, the one that pops into everyone's heads. Also, when they finally did lock up one of their homegrown stars...it was Mike Sweeney. Now Mike Sweeney is an awesome guy, but we are know how that ended up playing out. Also, I think it generally creates some friction between players and the FO when a player has to go all the way thorough to arbitration to decide his contract figure. Moore has completely eliminated any problem he could have potentially had with Soria in that respect.

For my money, it is very encouraging that we've finally seen one of the new guard of the Royals locked long term. It really is one of the measures of a how well run small-to-middle market team. It's one thing to produce a good young player, but it's another step entirely to lock said players up at a reasonable level financially that will give the Royals enough flexibility to have the money to put into other needy areas. With the low guaranteed price tag here of 8.75 million over three years, the Royals have bought out arbitration years without having to worry about being hamstrung by a large contract.

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After another scoreless ninth, there's no reason not to resume the Soria discussion from last night.-RR

-----

Seriously.

In twelve thirteen innings pitched this season, Joakim has allowed three hits, walked one, and struck out fifteen. He has not allowed a run. As I listened to the 9th in my truck tonight, I was struck with a bittersweet realization: what Soria is doing, literally, cannot be topped and won't last forever. What we're seeing is an extremely rare level of brilliance. I hope we enjoy it as long as it lasts.

He should be getting five times the media attention and blog & fan devotion that Banny has received, not the other way around.

Call me weird, but a guy who is just totally dominant is always going to be more compelling to me than a guy who gives a good quote.

Thanks to a dominant bullpen, the Royals are 4-2. In seventeen innings pitched, members of the K.C. 'pen have posted an absurd 1.06 ERA. So yea, if every member of the bullpen is going to perform like vintage Eric Gagne, then no, none of this silly whining about hackfest will matter.

The numbers are after the jump.

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The Royals are 3-0. Deal with it, America.

And no, this isn't the second time in twenty eight years thats happened -- as was reported on Baseball Tonight, last night, about 2-0 -- it's the second time in five years actually.

Someone call Desi Relaford, Ken Harvey and Michael Tucker.

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One of the old arguments I used to have with my girlfriend was about whether following sports was somehow better than following celebrities, or being a hardcore movie buff, or whatever. It wasn't contentious or anything like that, just something that became a discussion. In defense of sports, which actually most of the time I find to be quite boring and even annoying, I trotted out the standard line that the games, unlike a television show, aren't scripted, which always brings us back. In this case, I consider that to be a cliche that happens to be true. And it's hard to find a more random game, at the microlevel, than baseball.

We got a taste of that yesterday.

 

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Unlike the majority of the entire world, it seems, I haven't finished the seventh Harry Potter book. Needless to say if you read the diary, Rany pretty much beat everyone to comparing the Royals to the characters of J.K. Rowling's series. Perhaps also needless to say, I'm going to talk way too much about the book anyway in this article. And yes, I WILL reach through my computer and attempt to strangle you if you ruin the ending for me.

You might have heard that from someone else, that "don't tell me or I'll kill you" line and thought "what a freak" or something along those lines. I assure that at this point, I'm pretty disenchanted with the series. I've been so for a while, actually, as the last book that I really liked was the third one; that one came both before Rowling began to write 800-page books, and before I got old enough to be the critic I am now. Now, I'm just along for the ride because let's face it: when you've followed a series for six years or whatever, even if you get somewhat disenchanted with it, you still want to know how it ends. A shorter time span example of this would be lifetime original movies, because if people didn't take the "this kind of stinks but I need to see the ending now that I've watched it for an hour" approach, then the lifetime channel would be dead (which would be great).

I say all this to provide with some background info before I hit you with the timeline that occured the night "the book" came out. My parents have always got the book for one kid in the family, who gets to read it first, and then passed it down through the ranks. There are five of us now, and only the four-year-old isn't interested, so you can imagine the hiijinks that ensue over who gets to read it first. This is, after all, the last book in the series (riiiiiiight).

• One month ago-people in my family start to notice the "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows" poster on the downtown bookstore
• One day less than a month ago-Sister #2 begins to get on people's nerves, especially Sister #1's, about how Sister #2 gets to read the book first this time
• Somewhere indefinite-Mom registers Sisters #2 and #3 for Girl Scout Camp, which is something they generally love and didn't get to do last year. Remember this part.
• Three weeks ago-the seeds of dispute are sown as it is confirmed by Mom that Sister #2 does, in fact, get to read it first. Mom will have to confirm this fact about 8632 times in the next three weeks.
• Two weeks ago-In response to Sister #2 getting on people's nerves, Sister #1 begins to get on people's nerves by acting incredibly hyper about getting to read the book and disputing the legitimacy of Sister #2 getting to read it first. Because it wouldn't do for her to be outdone, you know.
• One week ago-it starts to dawn on people that the day that #s 2 and 3 leave for camp is the next day after the Harry Potter book comes out. Mom confirms it will be taken to camp by #s 2 and 3, meaning Sister #3 will (deservedly, she is 11 after all) get to read the book second. Sister #1, naturally, is less than pleased.
• Five days ago-around this time, I finally finished the latest Sandy Mitchell "Commissar Cain" book I was reading ("Duty Calls"), and my attention turns towards "the book" coming out. When I learn it's going to camp with the two Girl Scouts, I shrug and start reading "The Space Wolf." Sister #1 continues to earn zero points with Mom and Sister #3.
• Four days ago-things turn rather ugly as Sister #1 openly disputes Sister #2 getting the book first while on the trip to Target to buy the book. She does this when Mom is in the gas station, because she thinks she will get away with it. Mom gets back in the car, gets mad at #1, tells her that the "order of reading" is now 2-3-NHZ-1 and I helpfully add "and Sister #4 gets to read it before you if she learns to read well enough by then." This is, after all, a 760-page book or something like that.
• Three days ago-Sisters #2 and #3 depart for Girl Scout camp with the book in tow. Because I haven't pissed off Sister #2, I've already got to read 45 pages or something like that by the time they leave.
• Two days ago-Sister #1 hounds Mom to let her bu her own copy of a $35 dollar book so that she can read it without having to wait a week and a half for the other two to return from camp. Mom is unrelenting, at first, but eventually leaves the decision up to Dad. After all, Sister #1 might be acting like a loony, but the fact of the matter is that her intentions are pure: she just wants to read the damn book. Plus, she (reasonably) can't stand the fact that all her friends will be talking about the ending. Dad says yes, we drive to Stop & Shop and continue to make J.K. Rowling rich. Sister #1 reads to page 150 despite getting the book at eightish and going to sleep at ten. I get the book briefly after she goes to sleep. I get to page 65 before I pass out.
• Yesterday-Sister #1 surges to page 430, and I get all the way to 360 after she falls asleep. She accidentally told me about some minor character dying earlier in the day. It was all I could do not to punch her. Yeah, I can't pretend I don't care at all.
• Sister #1 is on the train into Boston to do her latest theater thingy. She has the book with her. And no matter which JK goes, this thing with Snape is never going to make sense.

So ther you have it. In the weeks leading up to getting this book, this was a pocket-sized warzone around here. The question I have for you all is what the heck makes/made this series so gosh darn popular when there's much better stuff out there? I mean, yeah, I want to know how it ends, but I'll be the first to admit that the plot is rather generic and the filler 300 pages that the last four books have had have made them annoying.

On to the Royals...

As I may have mentioned before, I really have to get:

• A: a better computer at home and mlb.tv
  
• B: the Extra Innings package

because it has been getting to the point where I'm seriously annoyed that I can't watch the Royals play more often. Then, of course, when I do watch them it's when they play my favorite team. This is not exactly thrilling. Still, it was genuinely fun to see the Royals again. Since BBTN and SportsCenter like to leave us without Royal highlights a lot of nights, and KC definitely never gets picked for an ESPN or FOX "Game of the Week," it had been a while.

So, my bullet-pointed thoughts and observations on the three games between the Red Sox and the Royals:

• Billy Ray Butler is a moose, but I'm even more confident in the lad than I was before when I actually got a chance to see him hit. Free agent possibilities notwithstanding, Butler could be the Royals' best hitter for years to come. On a somewhat silly, intangible level I love the fact that he ran out the easy outs he made. It was like watching a hamster on a wheel who honestly thinks he's going somewhere, but still encouraging to see him hustle despite his lack of speed.
• It really is getting ridiculous how often Jason LaRue is getting the nod over John Buck. The only way this could ever be remotely redeemable is if the Royals find a way to get someone with upside for LaRue at the deadline. Good luck. Buck is so much better than LaRue in the batter's box that it's a little sad that Bell doesn't seem to get it. It was not a good series for John (in part because he only played two games), but Buck's a keeper, folks, and that double he hit off the wall was crushed. That guy can absolutely punish mistake pitches.
• Alex Gordon looks a hell of a lot more comfortable in the batter's box, and he had himself a sweet 5-for-10 series with three hits in the second game. I know he's gone back down to .232 since, but it seems like he's altered his approach. At the beginning of the season, his stance seemed a little too upright and stiff, if memory serves. Certainly good to see him hitting well. It would've been cool to see him actually take a walk, but hey, I'm probably being too dang picky. And Bell, don't play him at first any more, please. Quick! Dayton! Trade for a first basemen!
• Joakim Soria has gained velocity since opening day, which may be a given but it's still impressive. When I saw him in the opening series he seemed to top out in the high 80s, but his fastball was consistently over 90 according to the Fenway radar guns. Watching a kid who was pretty much off the map and then in A-ball last year give up a triple to Crisp, retain his compsure, and get the third out of the inning with the tying run on was the moment that stuck out as impressive to me. Soria looked very good, and it will be very interesting to see which way the Royals go with him--starter or reliever. I think he has the stuff to do whatever is asked of him.
• Ross Gload is not only a bad hitter, but he has a funny face. Designate him for assignment, now!
• Odalis Perez officially has the stuff that my grandmother would have if she could throw 83 MPH or so. If Perez is not gone by the 31st...there really is not point to continue to give him starts. He's just useless. Needless to say, he vultured a win somehow against the Sox. He's still awful.
• If there's any interest in Emil Brown, the Royals need to trade the guy. He doesn't hit, doesn't field, and his non-chalant of that fly ball hit by Mike Lowell was just downright gross. Nice professionalism, Emil. Perhaps the only funny thing about the play is that Lowell dogged it up the line and only got to first when he could've easily had two bases. Two idiotic plays on the same batted ball.
• When I said "Tony Pena is not the SS of the future" I did not mean "Jason Smith is awesome. Play him, Buddy" hopefully Bell understands that Smith is nothing more than a fungible utility man.
• I'm mad that I didn't get to see Meche pitch again, but I was generally very impressed with Bannister. I wouldn't be surprised if home runs became a little more of an issue for him in the future, but apparently his curveball is helping him out a lot. I said I liked him to be servicable in the rotation this year, and I couldn't be happier that he's outdoing my expectations. That's a trade that the Royals are already winning on.
• Grudzielanek and his .299 batting average are now pulling him into the "you just can't kill this guy" territory. Thanks for the trade value, Mark. Hopefully, the Royals take advantage of the fact that Grudzielanek is hitting well by trading him to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira.
• David Riske...uh, what the hell? The guy is pitching about twice as good as I ever thought he would again after he was traded from the Red Sox last year. In his brief time at Fenway and with his mediocre numbers last year, it looked like his career was in swift descent. I guess maybe I'm guilty of looking at a small sample size when I thought that, though, as Riske looks great. Whether or not the Royals should trade him is another matter; you'd think he and his sub-3.00 ERA and name brand value might be worth more than a cheeseburger.
• Dotel looks good again, which is not really a given when you experience the type of injuries he's had. If he's lost velocity, it isn't much, though I can understand why other teams want him as a set-up guy; he's a flyball pitcher who seems to throw a lot of "oh, yeah? Well, hit this!" fastballs. Of course, the Red Sox couldn't.
• Kason Gabbard shuts the Royals down (albeit with a strange strike zone), then they squash Wakefield like a bug? I had the Royals pegged as a team who would whiff a ton against a knuckleballer, but I guess it wasn't going to be. It was no surprise that Tavarez stunk.

That's about it unless I think of something and add it later. Obviously, the Royals endured a setback last night against the hated Yankees, but between actually getting to see them play three whole games--not a minute-long SC segment--and what with the improved play of the Royals lately, I'm very excited to be following this team. The next big hurdle actually doesn't have to do with on-field results: come next week, Dayton Moore will need to work his magic and turn this year's seller's market into a positive thing for the Royals. As well as the team is playing right now, I don't think anyone wants to see Odalis Perez or Emil Brown sucking up playing time in the second half, and Dotel needs to be traded what with the very good demand he's in right now.

I feel like I've Peter Kinged you with this article, talking about pop culture way too much (at least I didn't have a page devoted to coffee) and sports way too little, and for that I'm sorry. I really wanted to do the Royals observation article late last week, but I felt it needed something to go along with it. Consider this you light reading for the week and I will be back with the hardline stuff next week when I look at the various deals that have gone down/might happen at the deadline.

Spreadsheet Baseball returns next week to tell you whether Snape is evil or not, along with an obsessive amount of trade deadline stuff that is already starting to clog this computer's gears. For this week, questions and comments are, as always, welcome/encouraged.