I spent the weekend on the road and in the car, and aside from a few desultory employments of my phone for score checking, was decidedly disconnected from the Royals for three days. Sure, by the time I feel asleep each night I had learned if the Royals had defeated the Rays or not that day, but information beyond that was not easily available. In a way, aside from the cell phone utility, it reminded me of being a kid again: basically I was dependent of the ESPN crawler at the bottom of the screen, good timing on hearing scores get read on the radio and interpreting the twenty-second highlight (2.5 plays) of the game on Sportscenter/Baseball Tonight. Essentially, my knowledge of the weekend series boiled down to this: there were some rain delays, I think Carl Crawford hit a triple at some point that scored runs, and yesterday Billy Butler hit the foul pole. I also remember hearing Aviles named as one of the players with a homer, but as I am part of the Aviles Nation, this may or may not be representative.

Of course, should I be asked to do so, I could give a twenty minute explanation of the Brett Favre situation or the current status of Yankees-Red Sox, as well as a fifteen minute talk on the week the Mets have had.

• Late last night and earlier this morning, my master plan was to do a big post on which Royals might get traded, and sometime later this week that may happen. Honestly however, the post was a nonstarter because I kept coming back to the same issue: there actually aren't many guys likely to go. The Major League roster at the moment has, in trade terms, a clear set of untouchables -- although this isn't quite the right word -- such as Soria, Gordon and Butler, who aren't going anywhere. Below them, there's another large pool of the team's attractive players who are lacking either the first group's upside potential and or favorable contract status that make them truly untouchable. Call them "mostly untouchable" I suppose. In that category you've got Greinke, DeJesus, Meche and Guillen. While lots of teams may want those guys, aside from Guillen, it would be a truly bold gesture for Moore to part with one of those fellas. Just below that tier -- you can see why this would have been a fairly terrible post -- are the guys in the sweet spot, players who are both likely to be coveted and are expendable for age or role or contract reasons. These are the actual players who might be traded in most normal scenarios: Grudzielanek, Mahay, Nunez, Tejeda, and Ramon & Horacio Ramirez. Beyond those six mostly spare parts you have the trio of Teahen, Buck and Olivo. Teahen hasn't been good enough for someone to want him really, but he can play a variety of positions passably and someone may try to add him as a late C-level type of acquisition. Hey, someone wanted Affeldt once too. I also have a sneaking suspicion that either Buck or Olivo may be traded as well. So, all told, you have a pool of something like eight to ten guys, depending on your personal preferences, in which, something like three or four will actually be traded. Maybe, maybe you could throw Gathright into the mix for a team looking for an Endy Chavez vibe, but the Royals likely killed that by actually playing Gathright a lot and exposing him as inadequate. Oh, and he's sorta injured or whatever. No one is trading for Ross Gload, Esteban German, Kyle Davies and the like. We'll have plenty of time to talk more about all these matters of course...
• Speaking of trade talk, remember, before posting something, check to see if there isn't already an entry specifically about that player/topic/rumor.
  
• It is very nice to see Billy Butler heat up like this.  You can break Billy's season down in all sorts of ways, but roughly you have this: pre-demotion he hit .263/.330/.339 in 206 PAs, post-demotion-to-ASB he struggled to a .191/.224/.298 line in 49 PAs and since the ASB he's hit .314/.385/.686 in 39 trips to the plate.
• Jose Guillen's OPS peaked at .817 on June 17th, when he was hitting .291/.312/.505. Since then, he's completely cratered, hitting .184/.225/.281, over his last 120 PAs while ensconced in the middle of the lineup. Thanks to just 10 walks drawn all season, his OBP is a measly .286.
• The Buck/Olivo catching tandem. Redundant or double tasty? One has an OPS+ of 89, the other, 92. Can Buck stay above .250 in batting average this season? His career high is .245... a nation watches nervously.
• Seriously Teahen, what the hell man? .285 with middling power and decent patience is one thing, but .248 really kills the formula. Ask Joey Gathright (actually, Gathright has so little power that there is no formula). Sure, bad batting average stretches or seasons will happen, but this is getting bad. In his last 113 PAs, Teahen is hitting .210/.257/.333. Indubitably, those two games he hit leadoff are surely to blame. Indubitably.
• Ron Mahay is a rough Zack Greinke start away from leading team pitchers in VORP. Mahay's 20.1 VORP currently ranks above Soria's 18.8 total, as well as Meche's 17.0.
  
• Although I gave him love earlier today in a fanshot, Tejeda's been merely a replacement level pitcher according to VORP. Then again, a generic starter with control problems but some interesting stuff is essentially the prototype for an average reliever, isn't it?
• At 20,346 fans per game, the Royals are 28th in baseball in raw attendance. The 2007 average was 19.961 and in 2006 it was 17,158.

When was the last time Greinke allowed so many runs in such a short time, and the longball wasn't really an issue?

Some of the singles parade in the first inning was a bit fluky, but the plunking of Quentin and the three walks bespoke a general wildness as the underlying root of the problem.

• Kudos to Billy Butler on a mini-breakout game. I didn't think Billy would be at 3 homers at this point, but there's still plenty of time for him to put up, ohh, I dunno... Teahen numbers.
• I'm not sure Jimmy Gobble, absolutely one of my favorite Royals, is a Major League pitcher at this point. Gobble went walk, HBP, walk in the 6th inning, helping to extend Chicago's lead.
• Can't... escape... the presence of Ross Gload. He's like the presence of the sun in the east each morning. He's inexorable. Heading into tonight's game, Gload was 13th amongst AL 1Bs in plate appearances with 255... and 22nd in VORP.

Did the Royals not speak to the media after the game? I've just read the AP game story, the official website story and Dutton's story with the Star.

No quotes.

Obligatory fangraphs representation:

via www.fangraphs.com

• Full disclosure here: I more or less took this game off, although from the 7th on I was sporadically checking the score via my phone. Every once in awhile we've all got to pull a Rhoden. I didn't goto see Hancock however, I just watched some History Channel. Oh Monsterquest, you always rope me in, and you always let me down.
• Ross Gload went 3-4 and is now hitting .278. Trade him for a PTBNL yesterday.
• David DeJesus drew a walk to start the game. No one else followed his example.
• Banny almost turned in a helpful outing. Almost. Your Banny ERA update is  5.24.
• Billy Butler hit a double! We'll have that slugging percentage up to .350 any day now! I love getting excited about Royal prospects...
  
• Someone with an office job should check for me early tomorrow morning, but Buck may not be a sub-replacement level hitter (-VORP) after tonight's big game.
• I enjoy the box score oddity of Ramon Ramirez's blown save: 0.2 IP, 2 Ks, 0 Hs, 0 BBs. Blown save. Looking at the replays of the balk, I have no idea. Konerko certainly sold it.

Ramon Fernandez Ramirez, tell me, if you know,
Why, when the singing ended and we turned
Toward the town, tell why the glassy lights,
You jerked your neck forward
The lights in the fishing boats at anchor there,
As the night descended, tilting in the air,
Mastered the night and portioned out the sea,
Fixing emblazoned zones and fiery poles,
Arranging, deepening, enchanting night.
They called you for balking

With the trade deadline looming and the continued pursuit of the roster/organization on everyone's mind  it's worthwhile to take a look at the moves Dayton Moore has already made. Part I takes a look at how the position players with the big club. Stay tuned for Part II (big league pitchers) and Part III (minor leaguers).

It was 2006, Lebanon and Israel were doing their thing, FEMA did a "heckuva job" in New Orleans and the Royals were supposedly beginning an era of competence (as per Posnanski after Opening Day) thanks to a bizarre December spending spree that brought in Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, Joe Mays, Paul Bako and Reggie Sanders. (Vintage RR posts here and here.) Meanwhile, the franchise was a full season behind the Beltran trade and preparing for the Jackson County Stadium Tax Subsidy Vote. In a stunning coincidence, Bud Selig "promised" Kansas City an All-Star game pending a proper allocation of JC's limitless public monies.

To a surprising extent, the 2006 lineup, as Moore more or less inherited it, remains the 2008 edition. You can find good teams that have had more turnover than this:

The 2006 Royals went 62-100.

You can quibble with some of these slots as they are crudely defined here -- for example, I'm considering Gathright a bench player in the table above, although he's actually played more innings in CF than anyone else -- but for quick and dirty purposes these are the positions according to the organizational masterplan for the two seasons. As in Gathright's case, for some of the players "bench" may not be quite the right label, but more or less it works, and I've included only the additional players who logged significant playing time.

What stands out is how much holdover there has been. Three of the positions are exactly the same, although perhaps not without some controversy. Buck is still the primary catcher, Grudzielanek is still at second base and DeJesus is still in center. Moreover, Mark Teahen remains an everyday fixture in the lineup, although he's shifted from third base to the outfield, and Esteban German is still a utility player. When you factor in that Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, lineup cornerstones if everything goes well, are also Baird-era draftees, the 2008 lineup remains a very Allard creation.

Subjectively and intuitively, the 2008 edition should be better than their 2006 progenitor: the holdovers (Buck, Teahen, DeJesus) should be hitting their peaks, Emil Brown has been upgraded to Jose Guillen and a decline-phase Mike Sweeney has been converted to supposed prospect and pure hitter Billy Butler. Miguel Olivo is a huge upgrade over Paul Bako. Unfortunately, the sum of their parts just hasn't quite added up to being much more better than the Minky era. The 2006 team ended up averaging 4.67 runs per game, better than the current squad's 4.06 average.

Huh?

To start, the holdovers, DeJesus somewhat excepted, have failed to truly break out. Grudz and German are still around and are, as the man sang, still the same. We wait still on Gordon and Butler to truly arrive. Seemingly really easy upgrades at SS and 1B have turned into, umm... Tony Pena Jr. and Ross Gload. This bears repeating. Just find someone better than the worst overall player in the game (Berroa) and one of the weakest first basemen (Minky). He couldn't do it. Where have you gone Doug Mientkiewicz? Jose Guillen has had one insanely awesome month and two bad ones. Finally, although Miguel Olivo has out-hit Paul Bako, Dayton Moore's first big league pickup, Joey Gathright, has eaten up a ton of playing time over the last three seasons and consistently failed to hit. In 237 plate appearances this year, Gator has three extra-base hits. Three. In 248 last year, he had eight. Gains like the Bako/Olivo and the Brown/Guillen exchanges have been mitigated by players like Gathright.

Over the last few months there's been a persistent meme that Moore is focused on rebuilding -- really, "building" should be used throughout this post, since it was so long ago that anything around here was actually built -- the organization's pitching coffers, and that the lineup will be more of a patchwork project. And while it isn't yet clear that the team's lineup core is actually enough of one to bother building around, it was certainly more than there was among the hurlers. Sure, in 2008, Butler and Gordon are disappointments, but they are near locks to improve, at least a little bit. There are problems however, and Moore is not immune criticism for his utter failure to upgrade the roster at two slots, SS and 1B, that looked to be no-brainer/any AAA lifer would have been better. He hasn't found better bench options than what Allard managed in Stairs/Costa/Graffy and it's possible he's done worse.

Lastly, there's the large but mysterious issue of defense. The quality of the team's defense is harder to definitively pin-down, but according to BP's defensive efficiency data, the 2008 squad is, relative to competition, an improvement. Then again, the 2006 team was terrible, posted a D-Eff of .682, good for 28th best in baseball and 13th in the AL. The current team stands at 19th overall and 9th in baseball. (Although the pure number, .698, is not much different.) So regarding defense, Moore has taken a terrible team and produced a below-average one.

The Royals hired Moore on May 31, 2006 and after over two years of his stewardship, the offense is worse than the bad one he inherited.  Considering that he also had nothing to do with Butler or Gordon, and with no notable position prospects in the system, we must conclude that Dayton's handling of the position players in blue and white has been akin to Argentina's performance in the Falklands War: at best, a disappointment, and at worst an abject failure.

The Royals finished April with a 12-15 record and ended the fifth month of the year with a 22-34 mark (now 23-34). Considering the month contained the team's epic losing streak, an overall record of 10-19 in May wasn't a total disaster, and could have been much worse.

Let's take a look at how the boys in blue did at the plate in May. First, the team totals:

101 runs is actually not last in the league, it's tied for 11th. The Angels also scored 101 (in one fewer game) and the Mariners and Indians were worse, scoring 99 and 98 runs respectively, as the new deadball era sweeps across the American League. Despite the advantage of the DH, scoring in the American League is lower than in the NL, which of course can 100% be attributed to PEDs testing. 100%. Everyone who used PEDs was a hitter in the AL. Moving on... The Royals only hit 12 homers in May, which is remarkable. Not surprisingly, no team in the AL was anywhere close to this number, as the league average was 24 homers.It isn't anything like a full consolation, but the Royals did rip 65 doubles in May, second-most in the American League. Weirdly, the Royals continue to not hit triples, despite having some decent triplers getting regular playing time. They hit just 2 in May. Then again, no one ever got poor betting against Joey Gathright's extra base hit totals.

Speaking of Gathright, now about those individual numbers, sorted by OPS:

This is how you have a bad month. For a guy who probably won't be in the Major Leagues in 2010, Tony Pena Jr. has generated a ton of discussion this month, but he isn't standing alone in the forest of horribleness. Considering defensive value and where they play, it's certain that Ross Gload (another Dayton pickup) was the worse player in May, and Alberto Callaspo wasn't far behind. You can say the same for Billy Butler, who slugged .302 with no value on defense.

Other than Miguel Olivo's studliness and a decent month from Jose Guillen (characteristically a lack of walks drags down his performance, even when he's hitting over .300) nobody else stepped into the void. Although Gordon (and Teahen) continued to get his walks and John Buck tossed in his annual random month of hitting .300, there isn't much good displayed here. (Expect a .210 average from Buck in June.)

Pitching numbers will be up tomorrow.

Last night was apparently one hell of a game to miss. I remember, while watching the Celtics-Pistons post-game, seeing the final score on the ESPN Bottomline and saying something to the effect of "that stinks." It looked like it had turned out to be a close slugfest, one that, given it went into extra innings, could have gone either way. It was only when "KC Greinke - 8.1 IP, 3 ER" scrolled across the bottom of the screen that I began to suspect that it had been a painful loss, and even then I really didn't know until I checked the box score this morning. ESPN, as everyone here knows, would prefer to show the Red Sox failing to hit Erik Bedard all night than show Twins-Royals highlights. However, I think that might be a good thing in this particular case. Anyhow, the "earned run" tag meant I had no idea exactly how much the Royals had been leading by going into the ninth. Of course, that Greinke was still in the game indicated that they had been leading, and so my first thought was that Soria had actually had a bit of a meltdown.

Of course, that's not the way it went. You all know as well as I know what happened in the ninth inning last night, with Ramon Ramirez getting singled out of the game and giving way to the now-thoroughly dejected Joel Peralta.

One thing that would not change this night, though, was the despair felt by Peralta -- not for himself, he said, but because he let his teammates down.

"I won't sleep tonight, for sure," he said.

Yes, that definitely sound like a pitcher who gave two home runs in the span of three betters to heavily contribute to what I have little doubt will be the Royals most memorable loss of the year. I should make it clear I'm not attempting to get everyone blaming manager Trey Hillman rather than Peralta by evoking pathos, as I find it hard to blame Hillman for Peralta not being able to get Craig Monroe out. Really, with Nunez now hurting, and with Soria having pitched two games in a row, the decision last night came down to Mahay, Peralta, Yabuta, or keeping Ramon Ramirez in the game. Ramirez wasn't pitching well, so it's easy to see why Hillman turned elsewhere. Yabuta has a 6.00 ERA with no good peripherals. Craig Monroe historically hits lefties better than righties, to the tune of more power and a better OBP. Ron Mahay is left-handed, so assuming Soria wasn't ready to go, Peralta was left as the best choice for a high leverage situation. He blew it, he knows, let's move on.

We've already discussed this game at length, anyway. I'm just pointing this out because I've been critical of Trey, and others here have been a lot more critical of our fearless leader, but I don't think he takes the fall for the ninth inning. You can, as loyal2sdad pointed out, make an argument that Hillman should have just pitched either Peralta or Ramirez through the whole inning. You can also wonder why Greinke was allowed to start the inning with such a high pitch count and a 5-run lead. But either way, it's speculation that really isn't an indictment of the moves that were really made. If we all want something to complain about in regard to Hillman, it's much more debatable whether Peralta should have remained in to pitch to Justin Morneau with Mahay on the roster. Or the Gload in the outfield thing.

But I didn't write this whole thing to bury Hillman anyway. I didn't write to praise him either, because this entire team is in a funk that you usually only see once a year. If you want the bare bones consolation, we will probably go the entire year without the Royals ever playing this badly for this long. Feel better? Yeah, me neither. Maybe I'll just shut up about last night and get to the stuff I really wanted to touch on.

Notes on the Red Sox-Royals Series

Thanks to the heroic intervention of the MLB Extra Innings package, very soon I'll have the opportunity to follow more KC games without having to enlist the highlight reels and gameday. However, the four game set between the Red Sox and the Royals allowed me for the first time this year to actually see more than one Royals game in a row. It was pretty cool despite the obviously disappointing results. And yes, they were disappointing. Those of you who have been on this blog for awhile are well aware of my "split loyalties," but I was really hoping that the series would be a split so both "my teams" could have their moments. Well, I suppose I don't feel that bad that the Red Sox kind of beat up the Royals now that the Royals are getting beat up by everyone, if that makes sense to anyone. Anyhow, I have other places to go in this article, so onto the stuff that I jotted down during the series:

1. The improvements that Alex Gordon has made over last year were evident through the entire series, during which he was one of the few Royals offensive players who distinguished themselves. He looked more patient, more comfortable, and more disciplined than when I got to see him play last year.
2. Gil Meche looked as if he was starting to get turned around, K'ing 9 over seven innings and taking the hard luck loss in the second game of the series. Say what you will about the opposing points of view in the field of pitch count general pitcher workload research, but I think that poor Meche was suffering from a 200-inning, high-pitch count hangover that seems to finally be clearing up. It's like that time where I drank Ice 101 during finals week and didn't begin to function until approximately 2 PM the next morning. My god, that stuff is evil. Thanks to my friend Buddy, who recommended taking more shots of it than were necessary.
3. Joakim Soria - great man, or greatest man? Even though Soria only appeared in one game...and stuggled with his control...in the rain, I could still see the awesome stuff that he has. I was sitting next to a rather skeptical Red Sox fan during his outing, who made fun of me for saying that Soria had great control because Joakim walked two people in the rain. I had a good chuckle when Soria escaped the jam and then Mike Timlin struggled with his control and walked one in the rain on his way to creating his own save situation in the ninth. Funny stuff.
4. Contrary to whenever I saw him in the "highlights" earlier in the year, Jose Guillen had his timing down and more closely resembled the decent power hitter he's been in the past. You know this, but the difference was clearly visible.
5. Brett Tomko is not a victim of bad luck when it comes to his hittablility. After seeing his stuff, I don't think he's got enough to keep his BABIP at league average. I just bring this up because, other than his H/9, he looks like he is underperforming his peripheral numbers. After seeing how mediocre his stuff is, I don't think he's playing by the "normal" .290-.300 BABIP rule.
6. Billy Butler is sitting too far back in his stance, and almost never seems to get his weight forward into his swings. I know I'm not a scout, but it's odd to see a man that muscular trying to fight off pitch after pitch. In any case, he's a data point against the pitching coach. He looked completely lost in the Sox-Royals series.
7. Ross Gload is done. He doesn't look capable of hitting major league pitching. His numbers are terrible, and he's older than you think.
8. Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez both looked impressive in their outings. It's hard to believe that Nunez has come full circle and become a very good reliever, but he has. Ramirez looks like a good find, as if you look at his line in 2006 he was quite good before getting hurt last year.

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No, it's not a weekly "forum" hosted by Bob Costas dedicated to having his friends come on and discuss issues with only the insight and intelligence that a guy who stands in front of a camera can deliver. No, not that at all.

It's Costa Now!

What this lineup needs is Costa. Costa now.

OK, that may be a bit of an overstatement. But I do think that it's time to give Costa an extended bit of playing time at the Major League level.

For whatever reason, a true Free Costa campaign has never really caught on on this site. He's had his supporters over the years, but no one has ever been too excited about his upside, or so it seems. Moreover, he's actually seen a fair amount of action with the Royals, albeit in weird chunks and in strange situations. Basically, this has been the only thing that I'd ever thought about him: the Royals have found a number of lineup slots and positions to play him, while never really committing to anything much. Costa for all the world has looked like a tweener: he can't play center and he can't hit enough to hold a corner slot. End of story.

I'm not sure that's necessarily true anymore. Costa is hitting .313/.357/.565 this season in Omaha, and has already hit seven home runs. Costa has always been a .300 hitter in the minors, but the knock against him has always been a lack of power. Well, he may have improved in that regard, and a modest power spike in the mid to late twenties is actually fairly standard. Furthermore, this is the Royals we're talking about, and at a certain point Costa's status vis-a-vis traditional conceptions of how to build a lineup is irrelevant. The question is, essentially, is he better use of a roster spot than Joey Gathright. Only it's not. Gathright is out of options and must clear waivers to hit the minors. It's hard to see Moore jettisoning Gathright (or running the risk of it) for a few weeks of Costa. So who has options remaining? Basically no position players other than Butler and Gordon. I believe Peralta might , but I am not positive. Ditto for Yabuta.

No, as odd as it sounds, barring any trades or dramatic changes of course, the only player that Costa can easily replace on the Big League roster is Billy Butler. Sending Butler to Omaha so that Costa can snag Joey Gathright's playing time isn't a terrifically obvious move, but I think it has some merit.

- Costa can outhit Gathright. Gathright is a career .265/.328/.312 hitting in the Major Leagues. While is lack of home run power is obvious, it's startling how few doubles Gathright produces, especially considering his speed.  Last year, Gathright had 70 hits and 62 of them were singles.  As a Royal, Gathright has cranked out 15 doubles, four triples and one home run in 586 trips to the plate. On a different team, Gathright's dogged efforts to get on base (he did post a .371 OBP last year) might be more valuable, but on the Royals it just means he can advance to third base on a Mark Teahen single and be stranded when Jose Guillen strikes out. The thing is, the knock on Costa has always been that he's basically a singles hitter, and he very well might be. Joey Gathright is still a bigger singles hitter, one of the most singles-based hitters in the universe, actually. Again, Costa is showing some pop this season in Omaha, and it wouldn't be unheard of for a guy to flash a little more power than previously shown when he turns 26. Costa doesn't have to slug .550 in the Majors to be an upgrade over Gathright. He doesn't have to slug .500. If Costa can slug .450 in the majors this year, maybe even just .400, he'll probably do enough to off-set what even the best case scenario for Joey Gathright is. Even if all of that isn't true, and Gathright's likely to be a better overall player, the Royals know what they have in Gathright at this point (I hope) but regarding Costa, they don't. They need to find out.

- Billy Butler needs a sabbatical. There is perhaps a deep irony in calling up Costa to chase after a 100 points of slugging but at the cost of demoting Billy Butler, as I well understand. However, at the moment the matter may be mute because Butler is slugging .362. That number is even more remarkable when you consider that Billy is actually hitting .277. As they did with Alex Gordon last season, the Royals have shown remarkable patience with Butler, which in many ways is very admirable, even courageous in the limited way that these matters can truly be courageous. Considering that Butler has no baserunning value and limits Hillman's options afield, it goes without saying that he's not pushing the offense much by hitting an empty .277.  As is often said, the American League is not an instructional league, and I think that there is sufficient evidence that Butler could still use some lower-stress instruction in many aspects of the game. While I am generally not in favor of arb-clock gaming, it must also be said that it may be in the team's financial best interest to have Butler work on things in Omaha. Gordon and Butler are similar, but they are not the same: Butler is much younger and lacks much of Gordon's overall polish. Even though Gordon struggled last season, a rational case can be made that it was good for him to experience that, and hopefully learn from it, at the highest level. It isn't obvious that Butler is at that point.

-Increased Strategical Flexibility. With Costa replacing Butler, Hillman gains another chess piece for the late game pinch-hitting that he seems to be in favor of. The Royals have a number of extremely slow players (Buck, Olivo, Grudz, Gload) as well as a certain shortstop who essentially should never bat more than 3 times a game if you can avoid it. With Costa around, Hillman should feel more comfortable using German and Gathright more optimally and earlier in the game. Or, he can keep German in his back pocket, and feel safer using Callaspo earlier. Costa might also be useful in spelling Guillen and Teahen, while allowing Hillman to feel comfortable that he still has an infield reserve available in German. Butler creates problems, Costa creates solutions. (Ok, that's unbelievably cheesy, but I couldn't resist.)

The best Shane Costa has ever performed at the Major League level came at the opening of the 2006 season, when he was a nearly-regular player for the first 21 games of the campaign. Over that stretch, Costa hit .317/.333/.533, in 61 PAs. A little hacktastic, sure, but that issue is almost a sunk cost with this team at this point. Since then, despite appearing a lot, he's never really got extended playing time, which has likely driven his numbers down. Maybe, maybe not. Yes, unlike, say, Justin Huber, Costa has actually been given a solid chunk of playing time, over 400 PAs in fact, but on the whole it's been haphazard, with lots of pinch-hitting and spot starts. Plus, he's older now, and, the wonderful thing about being in your twenties is that it's a rare moment in your life when being older actually makes you better at stuff.

In both the short and long term, the Royals would be better served by replacing Billy Butler with Shane Costa on the roster. Butler will, without any doubt in my mind, have the better career in baseball. Actually, I'd be willing to be a large sum that he'll be better next year. He might even be better by August. But, with all facets of the game considered equally, he's not not better now. This season isn't about winning, it's about positioning the team to win next year (right? we don't have to wait until 2010, do we?). Billy Butler is still just 22 years old and remains one of the youngest players in baseball. His future is bright. However, he has no position and appears lost on the bases and he isn't hitting. The Royals' plan for him seems to be one of resignation: he is what he is and he isn't going to get better, so let's just guarantee that he becomes a Super Two and accept him for what he is. If that's the case, then the half-hearted efforts to get him starts at first base seem especially ill-conceived. Nothing is being accomplished by the status quo, and even less so will be forwarded once inter-league play begins.

What the Royals need now, is Costa, sweet Costa.

---------

Appendix:

- Royals Authority on Costa in 2007 and then in 2008, the latter link, when they "broke up" with Costa.

A brainchild of Royals Review reader "daveyork", the Mark Quinn Award is given annually to the most disappointing Royal hitter. Last season, Ryan Shealy, the preseason favorite, took home the hardware, thanks to a .221/.286/.308 campaign highlighted by a .113/.186/.208 that served notice that he wasn't messing around.

But to truly be a Quinn candidate, you can't just be bad, you have to truly disappoint when many held high hopes for you. While the Royals have had more than their share of disappointments over the years, it takes a special combination of circumstances to truly be a Quinn candidate. Essentially, you need to quickly rise to glory, then almost immediately fall off the face of the planet. Remember, here's the Mark Quinn career path:

Mark Quinn Through the Years:

1999: .333/.385/.733, 6 HRs (64 PAs)
2000: .294/.342/.488, 20 HRs (535 PAs)
2001: .269/.298/.459, 17 HRs (465 PAs)
2002: .237/.301/.368, 2 HRs (81 PAs)

Quinn peaked at age 26 and played his last Major League game at age 28.

Unfortunately, the composition of the current roster -- a blend of exciting young players and fairly generic veterans -- isn't conducive to the true spirit of the Quinn Award. Mark Grudzielanek, for example, might have a bad year, but he's 500 years old, and we all knew it had to end sometime. No, we were excited by Quinn, who peaked at a time when it seemed like the Royals could just generate hitters indefinitely (this was the Damon/Beltran/Sweeney Era), then completely fell apart.

Nevertheless, the show must go on, so without further ado, Royals Review is proud to announce the 2008 pre-season early-season nominees!

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The most anticipated Royals season since 2004 begins, weather permitting, tomorrow afternoon in Detroit. The odd thing is, while almost everyone is excited about 2008, no one seems too hopeful that the Royals can actually compete, just yet. It's an odd dynamic that speaks to some long-term faith in Dayton Moore and the young players on the roster, as well as the extremely low expectations of a beaten down fanbase. This tenuously balanced bit of patient optimism could make the 2008 campaign something like a leisurely pleasure cruise, with random individual performances and patches of good play appearing like spots of scenery -- oh, look, there's a great start by Greinke, oh neat, we swept the Twins this weekend -- or it might evaporate quickly, as the on-field product pales in comparison to the way it appeared in the ballfields of the mind this off-season.

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On the heels of the Royals meltdown in Tampa Bay, it might be a good time to post a Q & A session I did with the SB Nation Devil Rays blog last week. Enjoy:

1. The Royals and Rays are actually very similar franchises if you think about it. Both are in areas with no major population center, both franchises have, to put it bluntly, sucked over the last several years, and both have stadiums in areas which some fans would desribe as "inopportune locations". We have a heavy farm system, and that is what keeps some of us sane watching the Rays play, but how do you guys preserve and maintain your sanity as Royals fans?

Royals Review: I think there are some important differences, although I agree with your general premise, that it is somewhat puzzling that these teams have any fans. For one, the Royals had a nice 20-year run of success during the 70s and 80s, which has helped create a fairly dedicated, if old and jaded, old-school fanbase. The Royals have been living on those dividends for years now, with smaller returns each season, but it still helps. Secondly, KC has no NBA, no NHL and only one (albeit hugely popular) NFL team. More importantly, beyond Kansas basketball and Nebraska football, the region doesn't really have a larger than life college program which consumes endless attention. So, all in all, we've got time. As for sanity however, I don't think there are any sane Royals fans left. You'd be amazed what one fluky 83-win season (2003) can do however; perhaps you guys can experience this soon.

2. Kauffman Stadium is a facility that has really stood the test of time. Built 33 years ago, it is still regarded as one of the most beautiful stadiums in baseball. However some of its 70s era facilities are needing an upgrade, and an initiative is on the ballot in Jackson County to upgrade the Truman Sports Complex, that is Kauffman and Arrowhead Stadium, the home of the Chiefs. A previous ballot initiative was rejected by the voters, and there has also been some talk of building a downtown stadium. Now, taking in all of this, what is your opinion of this whole stadium issue, and could we really be faced with the prospect of no more waterfalls in a Kansas City ballpark?

Royals Review: On April 4th voters in Jackson County Missouri indeed approved the funding measure, bringing $425 million to the Royals over the next 25 years. But hey, the Royals tossed in $25 mil, so we can now read about the "joint-funded" renovations for the next decade. Considering the joint Royals-Chiefs lobbying team spent over $1.5 million advertising their cause, as well as the generally positive coverage sports teams nearly always receive, its remarkable that the move only passed with about 53%. Personally, I was against the measure - which came complete with fake Seligean announcements proclaiming "KC Awarded All-Star Game!!" followed by the qualifier, "if funding measure passes" - and largely insulted by the arguments for it. But then again, it probably shuts off further demands for a new Park, and precludes a contraction threat, so it may have been a lesser evil. I also don't live in Jackson County, so perhaps it is inappropriate for me to say much at all.

3. Another connection the Royals have to the Tampa Bay area is their old spring training facility. The Royals moved their spring training headquarters to Haines City/Davenport in 1988 as part of the "Boardwalk and Baseball" theme park commonly known as Baseball City. Well, the theme park closed two years after the Royals moved in, and the Crown left Central Florida in 2002 for greener pastures in Texas. How are you guys liking Surprise, and was Baseball City really that bad?

Royals Review: Just about anything is better than Kansas during March. However I was just a kid when I went through Baseball City, so I don't have really solid memories of it. Regarding Arizona, hmmm... what is there to say really? Someone should really write a book on how Spring Training is really changing, especially with high-profile teams (which of course, isn't the Royals). The Cubs presence in Arizona is incredible, it is still relatively low-key, but it is not like it probably used to be. Last, the Arizona run-inflation tends to ruin us every spring; we already know our pitching will suck, but I get emails from Royals fans every March with lines like, "I think this team will score some runs", and it never happens.

4. Now on to the player's side of things. The Royals previously had one of the worst farm systems in baseball, Dee Brown was their top prospect, 'nuff said. But now the team is finally focusing on the farm, and you are starting to see some talents like Justin Huber, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler rise through the farm system. Tell us a little about these three and, just generally, about the Crown's farm system.

Royals Review: The system is still weak, although with the Royals its almost impossible to objectively evaluate how they are doing for two reasons. One, their top players are almost all recently grabbed #1 or #2 picks, which are aided by their constant on-field failure. Its hard to mess up Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, they'll hit, but its also hard to truly praise the Royals for having them either. Congrats, you didn't draft an 18 year old who supposedly hit 100 mph and now is almost out of baseball. Secondly, if the Royals were a better team, some of there current players would almost certainly still be in the minors. In an alternate universe, players like John Buck and Mark Teahen might still be in AAA, along with about half the Royals pitching staff, and the Royals blogosphere would be filled with hope. Well guess what? Mark Teahen's never going to be an elite player. His upside is late 90s Joe Randa, but that's years away. The Royals have aggressively promoted their young pitchers to such an extreme that some have speculated they're actually attempting some kind of radical experiment in development. Still, essentially, it's a weak system.

5. Now on to the most depressing part of the interview, the actual Royals players themselves. First off, a relatively simple question. What the hell is up with Zach Greinke?

Royals Review: No one knows. He left camp on Feb 25th, and it seemed like a typical player-management meltdown that would blow over after a long weekend and a meeting over drinks at some Arizona gentleman's club. Instead, he never sniffed coming back, and was eventually placed on the 60 day-DL, sans an actual injury. The consensus seems to be, "he's a little different, one of those prodigy types that doesn't actually enjoy the game, and he clashed with the decidedly old-school Royals culture, especially Bell and the pitching coach, who tried to force him (amazingly) to throw 90% fastballs." The problem is (well beyond the incredible stupidity of that alleged coaching) that today Allard Baird is quoted as saying, "For the issues he's been going through, I'm really proud of him. He's a courageous young man." This seems to suggest something more substantial actually happened.

6. If nothing else, the Royals have a stable of talented pitchers. Tell us a little about guys like Ambiorix Burgos, Andrew Sisco, Mike Wood, Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Runelvys Hernandez, and Jeremy Affeldt.

Royals Review: The upside is competence, the downside is 110 loses. Runelyvs Hernandez probably has the most potential, but he's currently represented by Scott Boras and signed for only one more season. Should he be anything but terrible, there is an almost guaranteed chance he won't be in Kansas City in 2007. MacDougal, Burgos and Sisco are a potentially strong 1-2-3 bullpen punch, and are more or less the only Royal pitchers that strike anyone out. There is so much variance with these guys, and their unlikely to be as good in '06 as they were last season. Jimmy Gobble and Mike Wood are two of my favorite Royals, capable of putting up a 5.00 ERA in their sleep. Wood's an old low-upside A's prospect which the team seems to have soured on: why accept his 5.00 ERA when LimaTime can get you 7.50? Jimmy Gobble has the distinction of posting some of the lowest K-rates for a full time pitcher in Major League history, the fact that he's still a well-liked Royal should tell you all you need to know.

7. A follow-up question on Sisco, what do you do with him, bullpen, or move him into the rotation.

Royals Review: Send him to AAA for a month to get used to starting and then give him at least 15 starts with the big club. It is simply an innings matter here, and Sisco himself demonstrates that quality relievers can be found. That being said, I don't have a major problem with what the Royals are doing either, which is keeping him in the `pen. I wouldn't mind seeing him packaged at the deadline either, though I doubt that will happen.

8. John Buck was among the players acquired in the Carlos Beltran deal a few years back. He has shown decent pop, but overall has been a disappointment. Tell us a little about him, and the hopes you have that he will indeed become a good catcher.

Royals Review: He's a regular, and with some luck and good managing, he might slug .500 this season or next. He's also already 25 and likely is what he'll ever be. His defense has had periods of murkiness, but he's more or less league average. Average defense, low batting and on-base skills, homers in the teens, that's John Buck for the next two or three years. The problem is, he's always good for a .150/.170/.200 month now and then.

9. Speaking of the Beltran deal....two years later, how has it turned out. Good deal? Or another addition to Allard Baird's Hall Of Fame of shitty moves?

Royals Review: The Royals ended up getting three members of their current big-league team, Mike Wood, Mark Teahen and John Buck in exchange for a half-season of Carlos Beltran. For a team on its way to a 58-104 record, this haul was probably Baird's finest moment. Factor in the emergence of David DeJesus in centerfield as well as the money saved playing regulars like Buck and Teahen, and it gets even better. On the other hand, no team with Buck or Teahen as one of its five best players will never be a contender. You need elite players to win, but the Royals had no chance of resigning Beltran, so the point is mute.

10. Angel Berroa has been disappointing since stealing the AL Rookie of the Year Award from our own Rocco Baldelli a few years back, but rebounded a bit last year. What are your hopes for him, and how realistic are they?

Royals Review: Lets see, in 2004 he posted a .262/.308/.385 line, followed up by a .270/.305/.375 gem last season. He's generally considered a poor fielder and his base running often does more harm than good. At least last season he was finally moved off the top of the lineup, although for two years Tony Pena couldn't seem to figure out that a guy with a .305 OBP wasn't the best dude to have in front of Beltran. This is his age 28 season, so he might hit .295/.340/.400, which would cause the Royals to promptly sign him to a ten year extension. It is funny, as a product of the 2001 Johnny Damon trade with Oakland, Berroa's been ridiculed, then lauded, then ridiculed again. For awhile though, we though that Baird may have actually won the trade (which also involved your D-Rays of course).

11. The recent claiming off waivers of Tony Graffanino apparently means that the Esteban German era will be tardy in starting. What is your opinion of this move?

Royals Review: Beyond pointless. Its odd that an aging team, with a huge payroll that needs to win NOW would dump (through waivers) a $2 mil backup to a team that wants to get young, can't win for years and has no money. Totally nonsensical. Then again, the goal for this season isn't winning, or building for the future, its much more simple, avoiding embarrassment. German had a decent chance of hitting .200/.210/.250 in limited duty, whereas Graffy doesn't. So it's Graffy.

12. Mike Sweeney....one of the only star players the Royals have had in recent years who has actually stuck around, continues to rake, but wouldn't it be better for the team to trade him at this point and get a few prospects in return?

Royals Review: I see a parallel with the Huff situation in Tampa. At a certain point, the window's closed, the deal has lost value, and you still have a fairly good player that's gonna be hard to replace. Sweeney's expensive, but at this point it may make more sense to keep him around rather than trading him for cash and a B pitching prospect. Of course, it all depends on the individual deal. The interesting thing is, Sweeney is something of a lightening rod amongst Royal fans; you know, the old saw Bill James had about bad teams always turning on their worst player. He's seen by some as holier than thou, soft (because being injury-prone is always a moral choice) and overpaid. Still, its funny how we spent a decade bemoaning an inability to keep homegrown stars around (Dye, Damon, Beltran) and then the one guy who stays is repeatedly chided.

13. Mark Teahen, yet another acquisition in the Beltran deal, has been plugged in at the hot corner for the past two years without doing much, but started to perform a little better last year. Similar to the Buck question, what are his chances of becoming a solid, major league third baseman.

Royals Review: It seems like I spend my whole life talking about Mark Teahen. The bottom line is that he simply has to hit more (.246/.309/.376 in `05). By all accounts Mark is a delightful guy, a hard worker and a good teammate. If the world was about 99% different in every way, Mark and I would probably be friends. Still, he's 24 and its time to start hitting more. With Teahen, Buck and Berroa down at the bottom of the Royals lineup, the outs come fast and furious. Still, Teahen's cheap, he's part of the Beltran deal and people like him. He'll be given every chance to show something this season, but if Gordon keeps mashing, or even if he doesn't, windows might close for Mark quick.

14. David DeJesus is one of the only prospects that the Royals have plugged in recently who actually has performed well within a short period of time from his debut. Is he the next Beltran in center for the Royals, how good will this guy end up being?

Royals Review: It is hard not to see a young Johnny Damon. He's fast, but a little raw on the basepaths and in center. He already has the plate discipline, and he's in his age 26 season with a career .290/.361/.427 line in over 900 PAs. I think there is something to be said for the possibility that he's just a fast developer and may already be near the ceiling of his potential. Signed through 2010, he should be the face of the franchise for the next few years. This being the Royals however, there is always a potential that things get messed up.

15. There have been some crazy rumors in the past about Jonny Gomes, our star outfielder who absolutely mashed the ball last year, possibly being headed to Western Kansas. Have you heard these rumors, and if so......why would KC have any interest in Gomes in the position they are in?

Royals Review: With apologies to the new Rays Front Office, how much combined logic does there have to be behind a Rays-Royals trade rumor?

16. The Royals were relatively active in the free agent market this offseason, signing a few players to improve their 56 win squad like Scott Elarton, Mike Redman, Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Reggie Sanders. Some of them, I think, were simply signed to make life difficult for Royals writers in terms of spelling. Anyways, is the $$$ the Royals invested in these veterans really worth it to a team who, in all likelihood, is still going to finish in the cellar?

Royals Review: I guess it depends on what your goals are. If the goal is not being a laughing stock, having something to hold a press conference about, and giving Buddy Bell some old dudes to hang out with, then the moves were a success. To be fair, not all the moves are equal: Sanders, Elarton, Redman and Grudz are decent players, who should make the Royals marginally better. On the other hand, Minky and Joe Mays have looked awful, and I haven't even mentioned Paul Bako yet. There has been some discussion that the -moves are Dave Littlefield-esque veteran-players-to-be-traded-later moves. Considering a) the Littlefield picks were stronger players and that b) he still didn't get much for them its an odd idea (either for Baird himself, or for fans to dream about). Honestly, the barrage of moves probably were at least half the idea of the Glass family cadre, as their inept attempt at talent evaluation, as well as a PR ploy in hopes of getting tax monies in April. Mission accomplished.

17. Here's hoping you guys have your "Under Construction" moment like we did, where you are able to clean out Baird and David Glass, but in the meantime, what is it going to take to make this franchise successful, on and off the field?

Royals Review: We need the AL Central to return to 2001-4 levels, number one. Secondly, having the Yankees sign Billy Beane wouldn't hurt. It is only possible for there to be so many good teams, and probably the talent market can only support a handful of small-market teams that are also competitive, so sending Beane to NY would kill two birds with one stone. Beyond that, its vaguely possible that the team could be good offensively in the next few years, with DeJesus, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler etc. If that's the case, we better hope that the pitching prospects (most of whom are already with the team) are there in '08 to help the cause. If not, the upside is the Royals teams of the early 00s, who had Damon-Dye-Beltran-Sweeney-Randa, but still couldn't win.

Thank you for submitting to these questions, I really appreciate your help, and best of luck to the Royals this season, they are one of the three AL teams I hope do well, along with Cleveland, and, of course, the Rays.