Another blast from the past (a haunting?) on a rainy Thursday. Back in January, I looked at the Top Five Doubles Hitters in the post-Brett Era...

Continuing the life-changing examination of the post-Brett era in Kansas City. This time, with a nod to the problems inherent in taking RsBI very seriously, lets instead look at doubles.

Doubles are interesting because a double is a fairly good play, but, at the same time, a double is also sometimes just a home run that doesn't go as far, or do as much damage. Here are the run expectancies for doubles, or, more properly, for a dude standing on second base:

Run Expectancy for a Dude Standing on Second Base:

Dude on Second, no outs: 1.154 runs
Dude on Second, one out: .736 runs
Dude on Second, two outs: .3645

Note: these numbers are just from the 2006 season.

Thinking more about doubles, a fairly common double situation is "man on first moves to third on double" (at least if Sweeney or Buck aren't on first). In that situation, with no outs, the double moves the run expectancy of the inning from .926 to 1.807. With one man already out, the double pushes the expected runs from .567 to 1.173. All good things.

Anyway, here are the top five doubles men since 1993:

Top Five Doubles Hitters For the Royals Since 1993:

1. Mike Sweeney- 292
2. Joe Randa- 223
3. Carlos Beltran- 156
3t. Johnny Damon- 156
5. Jermaine Dye- 115

About what you would expect regarding doubles. Mike Macfarlane has 174 doubles as a Royal -- good for 9th most in club history -- but the majority of them came in the early '90s, which is for whatever reason outside the data-set I'm interested in presently. Berroa currently has 103 doubles as a Royal, and David DeJesus already has 82. If David doesn't catch Angel in this category by the end of 2008, then that probably means things are going horribly wrong.

Overall, Kauffman Stadium has played as a good hitters park over the last decade and change, usually posting solid pro-hitter park factor. Still, the dimensions have changed twice, and intuitively I would suspect that the moved in fences helped homers but suppressed doubles, while the new/old dimensions of the last three seasons have increased doubles while decreasing homers. Unfortunately, I don't have this data in front of me. If anyone knows where outcome-specific historical park-factors can be found, I'd love to know. However, it must be remembered that single-year PFs aren't terribly reliable as it is, and single-outcome ones can be fairly noisy.

Anyway, the beat goes on. Congrats to Sweeney on another post-Brett victory.

Update [2007-8-9 12:46:48 by royalsreview]:

While Sweeney's managed only a 10 double season to date, he's obviously in no danger of being caught any time soon. On other fronts, David DeJesus has, indeed, passed Angel on the All-Time Doubles list. As of August 8th, David has notched 108 2Bs, five ahead of Berroa's 103.

The sometimes maligned Emil Brown has snuck all the way up to 83 doubles as a Royal, passing Raul Ibanez's total of 81 with a two-double game against Texas back on July 28th. Amazingly, the Royals didn't honor this achievement with an in-game ceremony.

Mark Teahen now owns 73 career doubles (two behind our beloved Mike Tucker's total as a Royal), while Buck sits at 66.

George Brett retired after the 1993 season. Since Brett leads the Royals in just about every single statistical category, I thought it would be interesting to examine the Royals leaderboards for the post-Brett era. At random intervals over the off-season, I hope to do just that.

Without further ado, the leaders:

Top 5 Royal HR Hitters Since 1993:

1. Mike Sweeney- 190
2. Carlos Beltran- 123
3. Joe Randa- 86
4. Jermaine Dye- 85
5. Johnny Damon- 65

Its a little surprising to see Joe Randa come out ahead of Jermaine Dye on this list, although Randa did play nearly twice as many games as a Royal (1019 to 547). Randa's final homer as a Royal came on September 25th, 2004 against the White Sox, the only Royal highlight in a 5-1 loss that pushed the Royals to 57-97. Moreover, I've always felt Dye was a little overrated as a player, at least until his random MVP-level season in 2006. After a solid 1999 with the Royals, Dye went nuts in April/May of 2000, hitting .388/.459/.847 with 11 homers. Considering he finished the season hitting .321/.390/.561 with 33 homers, you wouldn't say he was horrible the rest of the way, but he did cease being a truly elite player. Still, thanks to the early season glory he earned an All-Star berth and a disproportionate amount of media coverage. If he'd thrown up his 1.306 OPS in a July/August stretch only the rotoheads would have truly noticed... But anyway, nothing against Jermaine Dye, but he is out-homered as a Royal by Randa.

After Damon's 65, Raul Ibanez comes in at 6th in the post-Brett era with 55 homers, followed by yes... the one and only Angel Berroa with 45. Actually, Berroa's tied with the Mighty Mark Quinn at the moment, but should inevitably pass him.

On the heels of the Royals meltdown in Tampa Bay, it might be a good time to post a Q & A session I did with the SB Nation Devil Rays blog last week. Enjoy:

1. The Royals and Rays are actually very similar franchises if you think about it. Both are in areas with no major population center, both franchises have, to put it bluntly, sucked over the last several years, and both have stadiums in areas which some fans would desribe as "inopportune locations". We have a heavy farm system, and that is what keeps some of us sane watching the Rays play, but how do you guys preserve and maintain your sanity as Royals fans?

Royals Review: I think there are some important differences, although I agree with your general premise, that it is somewhat puzzling that these teams have any fans. For one, the Royals had a nice 20-year run of success during the 70s and 80s, which has helped create a fairly dedicated, if old and jaded, old-school fanbase. The Royals have been living on those dividends for years now, with smaller returns each season, but it still helps. Secondly, KC has no NBA, no NHL and only one (albeit hugely popular) NFL team. More importantly, beyond Kansas basketball and Nebraska football, the region doesn't really have a larger than life college program which consumes endless attention. So, all in all, we've got time. As for sanity however, I don't think there are any sane Royals fans left. You'd be amazed what one fluky 83-win season (2003) can do however; perhaps you guys can experience this soon.

2. Kauffman Stadium is a facility that has really stood the test of time. Built 33 years ago, it is still regarded as one of the most beautiful stadiums in baseball. However some of its 70s era facilities are needing an upgrade, and an initiative is on the ballot in Jackson County to upgrade the Truman Sports Complex, that is Kauffman and Arrowhead Stadium, the home of the Chiefs. A previous ballot initiative was rejected by the voters, and there has also been some talk of building a downtown stadium. Now, taking in all of this, what is your opinion of this whole stadium issue, and could we really be faced with the prospect of no more waterfalls in a Kansas City ballpark?

Royals Review: On April 4th voters in Jackson County Missouri indeed approved the funding measure, bringing $425 million to the Royals over the next 25 years. But hey, the Royals tossed in $25 mil, so we can now read about the "joint-funded" renovations for the next decade. Considering the joint Royals-Chiefs lobbying team spent over $1.5 million advertising their cause, as well as the generally positive coverage sports teams nearly always receive, its remarkable that the move only passed with about 53%. Personally, I was against the measure - which came complete with fake Seligean announcements proclaiming "KC Awarded All-Star Game!!" followed by the qualifier, "if funding measure passes" - and largely insulted by the arguments for it. But then again, it probably shuts off further demands for a new Park, and precludes a contraction threat, so it may have been a lesser evil. I also don't live in Jackson County, so perhaps it is inappropriate for me to say much at all.

3. Another connection the Royals have to the Tampa Bay area is their old spring training facility. The Royals moved their spring training headquarters to Haines City/Davenport in 1988 as part of the "Boardwalk and Baseball" theme park commonly known as Baseball City. Well, the theme park closed two years after the Royals moved in, and the Crown left Central Florida in 2002 for greener pastures in Texas. How are you guys liking Surprise, and was Baseball City really that bad?

Royals Review: Just about anything is better than Kansas during March. However I was just a kid when I went through Baseball City, so I don't have really solid memories of it. Regarding Arizona, hmmm... what is there to say really? Someone should really write a book on how Spring Training is really changing, especially with high-profile teams (which of course, isn't the Royals). The Cubs presence in Arizona is incredible, it is still relatively low-key, but it is not like it probably used to be. Last, the Arizona run-inflation tends to ruin us every spring; we already know our pitching will suck, but I get emails from Royals fans every March with lines like, "I think this team will score some runs", and it never happens.

4. Now on to the player's side of things. The Royals previously had one of the worst farm systems in baseball, Dee Brown was their top prospect, 'nuff said. But now the team is finally focusing on the farm, and you are starting to see some talents like Justin Huber, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler rise through the farm system. Tell us a little about these three and, just generally, about the Crown's farm system.

Royals Review: The system is still weak, although with the Royals its almost impossible to objectively evaluate how they are doing for two reasons. One, their top players are almost all recently grabbed #1 or #2 picks, which are aided by their constant on-field failure. Its hard to mess up Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, they'll hit, but its also hard to truly praise the Royals for having them either. Congrats, you didn't draft an 18 year old who supposedly hit 100 mph and now is almost out of baseball. Secondly, if the Royals were a better team, some of there current players would almost certainly still be in the minors. In an alternate universe, players like John Buck and Mark Teahen might still be in AAA, along with about half the Royals pitching staff, and the Royals blogosphere would be filled with hope. Well guess what? Mark Teahen's never going to be an elite player. His upside is late 90s Joe Randa, but that's years away. The Royals have aggressively promoted their young pitchers to such an extreme that some have speculated they're actually attempting some kind of radical experiment in development. Still, essentially, it's a weak system.

5. Now on to the most depressing part of the interview, the actual Royals players themselves. First off, a relatively simple question. What the hell is up with Zach Greinke?

Royals Review: No one knows. He left camp on Feb 25th, and it seemed like a typical player-management meltdown that would blow over after a long weekend and a meeting over drinks at some Arizona gentleman's club. Instead, he never sniffed coming back, and was eventually placed on the 60 day-DL, sans an actual injury. The consensus seems to be, "he's a little different, one of those prodigy types that doesn't actually enjoy the game, and he clashed with the decidedly old-school Royals culture, especially Bell and the pitching coach, who tried to force him (amazingly) to throw 90% fastballs." The problem is (well beyond the incredible stupidity of that alleged coaching) that today Allard Baird is quoted as saying, "For the issues he's been going through, I'm really proud of him. He's a courageous young man." This seems to suggest something more substantial actually happened.

6. If nothing else, the Royals have a stable of talented pitchers. Tell us a little about guys like Ambiorix Burgos, Andrew Sisco, Mike Wood, Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Runelvys Hernandez, and Jeremy Affeldt.

Royals Review: The upside is competence, the downside is 110 loses. Runelyvs Hernandez probably has the most potential, but he's currently represented by Scott Boras and signed for only one more season. Should he be anything but terrible, there is an almost guaranteed chance he won't be in Kansas City in 2007. MacDougal, Burgos and Sisco are a potentially strong 1-2-3 bullpen punch, and are more or less the only Royal pitchers that strike anyone out. There is so much variance with these guys, and their unlikely to be as good in '06 as they were last season. Jimmy Gobble and Mike Wood are two of my favorite Royals, capable of putting up a 5.00 ERA in their sleep. Wood's an old low-upside A's prospect which the team seems to have soured on: why accept his 5.00 ERA when LimaTime can get you 7.50? Jimmy Gobble has the distinction of posting some of the lowest K-rates for a full time pitcher in Major League history, the fact that he's still a well-liked Royal should tell you all you need to know.

7. A follow-up question on Sisco, what do you do with him, bullpen, or move him into the rotation.

Royals Review: Send him to AAA for a month to get used to starting and then give him at least 15 starts with the big club. It is simply an innings matter here, and Sisco himself demonstrates that quality relievers can be found. That being said, I don't have a major problem with what the Royals are doing either, which is keeping him in the `pen. I wouldn't mind seeing him packaged at the deadline either, though I doubt that will happen.

8. John Buck was among the players acquired in the Carlos Beltran deal a few years back. He has shown decent pop, but overall has been a disappointment. Tell us a little about him, and the hopes you have that he will indeed become a good catcher.

Royals Review: He's a regular, and with some luck and good managing, he might slug .500 this season or next. He's also already 25 and likely is what he'll ever be. His defense has had periods of murkiness, but he's more or less league average. Average defense, low batting and on-base skills, homers in the teens, that's John Buck for the next two or three years. The problem is, he's always good for a .150/.170/.200 month now and then.

9. Speaking of the Beltran deal....two years later, how has it turned out. Good deal? Or another addition to Allard Baird's Hall Of Fame of shitty moves?

Royals Review: The Royals ended up getting three members of their current big-league team, Mike Wood, Mark Teahen and John Buck in exchange for a half-season of Carlos Beltran. For a team on its way to a 58-104 record, this haul was probably Baird's finest moment. Factor in the emergence of David DeJesus in centerfield as well as the money saved playing regulars like Buck and Teahen, and it gets even better. On the other hand, no team with Buck or Teahen as one of its five best players will never be a contender. You need elite players to win, but the Royals had no chance of resigning Beltran, so the point is mute.

10. Angel Berroa has been disappointing since stealing the AL Rookie of the Year Award from our own Rocco Baldelli a few years back, but rebounded a bit last year. What are your hopes for him, and how realistic are they?

Royals Review: Lets see, in 2004 he posted a .262/.308/.385 line, followed up by a .270/.305/.375 gem last season. He's generally considered a poor fielder and his base running often does more harm than good. At least last season he was finally moved off the top of the lineup, although for two years Tony Pena couldn't seem to figure out that a guy with a .305 OBP wasn't the best dude to have in front of Beltran. This is his age 28 season, so he might hit .295/.340/.400, which would cause the Royals to promptly sign him to a ten year extension. It is funny, as a product of the 2001 Johnny Damon trade with Oakland, Berroa's been ridiculed, then lauded, then ridiculed again. For awhile though, we though that Baird may have actually won the trade (which also involved your D-Rays of course).

11. The recent claiming off waivers of Tony Graffanino apparently means that the Esteban German era will be tardy in starting. What is your opinion of this move?

Royals Review: Beyond pointless. Its odd that an aging team, with a huge payroll that needs to win NOW would dump (through waivers) a $2 mil backup to a team that wants to get young, can't win for years and has no money. Totally nonsensical. Then again, the goal for this season isn't winning, or building for the future, its much more simple, avoiding embarrassment. German had a decent chance of hitting .200/.210/.250 in limited duty, whereas Graffy doesn't. So it's Graffy.

12. Mike Sweeney....one of the only star players the Royals have had in recent years who has actually stuck around, continues to rake, but wouldn't it be better for the team to trade him at this point and get a few prospects in return?

Royals Review: I see a parallel with the Huff situation in Tampa. At a certain point, the window's closed, the deal has lost value, and you still have a fairly good player that's gonna be hard to replace. Sweeney's expensive, but at this point it may make more sense to keep him around rather than trading him for cash and a B pitching prospect. Of course, it all depends on the individual deal. The interesting thing is, Sweeney is something of a lightening rod amongst Royal fans; you know, the old saw Bill James had about bad teams always turning on their worst player. He's seen by some as holier than thou, soft (because being injury-prone is always a moral choice) and overpaid. Still, its funny how we spent a decade bemoaning an inability to keep homegrown stars around (Dye, Damon, Beltran) and then the one guy who stays is repeatedly chided.

13. Mark Teahen, yet another acquisition in the Beltran deal, has been plugged in at the hot corner for the past two years without doing much, but started to perform a little better last year. Similar to the Buck question, what are his chances of becoming a solid, major league third baseman.

Royals Review: It seems like I spend my whole life talking about Mark Teahen. The bottom line is that he simply has to hit more (.246/.309/.376 in `05). By all accounts Mark is a delightful guy, a hard worker and a good teammate. If the world was about 99% different in every way, Mark and I would probably be friends. Still, he's 24 and its time to start hitting more. With Teahen, Buck and Berroa down at the bottom of the Royals lineup, the outs come fast and furious. Still, Teahen's cheap, he's part of the Beltran deal and people like him. He'll be given every chance to show something this season, but if Gordon keeps mashing, or even if he doesn't, windows might close for Mark quick.

14. David DeJesus is one of the only prospects that the Royals have plugged in recently who actually has performed well within a short period of time from his debut. Is he the next Beltran in center for the Royals, how good will this guy end up being?

Royals Review: It is hard not to see a young Johnny Damon. He's fast, but a little raw on the basepaths and in center. He already has the plate discipline, and he's in his age 26 season with a career .290/.361/.427 line in over 900 PAs. I think there is something to be said for the possibility that he's just a fast developer and may already be near the ceiling of his potential. Signed through 2010, he should be the face of the franchise for the next few years. This being the Royals however, there is always a potential that things get messed up.

15. There have been some crazy rumors in the past about Jonny Gomes, our star outfielder who absolutely mashed the ball last year, possibly being headed to Western Kansas. Have you heard these rumors, and if so......why would KC have any interest in Gomes in the position they are in?

Royals Review: With apologies to the new Rays Front Office, how much combined logic does there have to be behind a Rays-Royals trade rumor?

16. The Royals were relatively active in the free agent market this offseason, signing a few players to improve their 56 win squad like Scott Elarton, Mike Redman, Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Reggie Sanders. Some of them, I think, were simply signed to make life difficult for Royals writers in terms of spelling. Anyways, is the $$$ the Royals invested in these veterans really worth it to a team who, in all likelihood, is still going to finish in the cellar?

Royals Review: I guess it depends on what your goals are. If the goal is not being a laughing stock, having something to hold a press conference about, and giving Buddy Bell some old dudes to hang out with, then the moves were a success. To be fair, not all the moves are equal: Sanders, Elarton, Redman and Grudz are decent players, who should make the Royals marginally better. On the other hand, Minky and Joe Mays have looked awful, and I haven't even mentioned Paul Bako yet. There has been some discussion that the -moves are Dave Littlefield-esque veteran-players-to-be-traded-later moves. Considering a) the Littlefield picks were stronger players and that b) he still didn't get much for them its an odd idea (either for Baird himself, or for fans to dream about). Honestly, the barrage of moves probably were at least half the idea of the Glass family cadre, as their inept attempt at talent evaluation, as well as a PR ploy in hopes of getting tax monies in April. Mission accomplished.

17. Here's hoping you guys have your "Under Construction" moment like we did, where you are able to clean out Baird and David Glass, but in the meantime, what is it going to take to make this franchise successful, on and off the field?

Royals Review: We need the AL Central to return to 2001-4 levels, number one. Secondly, having the Yankees sign Billy Beane wouldn't hurt. It is only possible for there to be so many good teams, and probably the talent market can only support a handful of small-market teams that are also competitive, so sending Beane to NY would kill two birds with one stone. Beyond that, its vaguely possible that the team could be good offensively in the next few years, with DeJesus, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler etc. If that's the case, we better hope that the pitching prospects (most of whom are already with the team) are there in '08 to help the cause. If not, the upside is the Royals teams of the early 00s, who had Damon-Dye-Beltran-Sweeney-Randa, but still couldn't win.

Thank you for submitting to these questions, I really appreciate your help, and best of luck to the Royals this season, they are one of the three AL teams I hope do well, along with Cleveland, and, of course, the Rays.

The Royals send Kyle Snyder (0-0, 4.15 ERA) to the hill today, making his first start since 2003, as the Royals look to win their second straight game. Snyder appeared in six games early this season, culminating in a May 9 cameo in Toronto.

For the Jays, its the Royals-like Dave Bush (0-5, 4.89 ERA) a 25 year old who, like Snyder, has spent most of the season in the minors. Bush's career ERA however, is 4.11, which sounds pretty good.

Greinke Watch: Apparently, Jay Jaffe has been reading Royals Review too. In the latest edition of the Baseball Prospectus Hit-List, which ranked the Royals as the 30th best team in baseball, Jaffe wrote:

Given Zack Greinke's struggles (9.90 ERA since June 1, 6.09 overall, to go with a 1-10 record), it's fair to ask whether the team would be better off sending their brightest hope to Omaha to escape the brutality and perhaps conserve some service time while shoring up his confidence.

Frankly, would it be the end of the world if Greinke's million-dollar, young as hell arm, was actually rested for a couple weeks, maybe a month? He's been pretty injury-free thus far, which has been in part a testament to the Royals smart limiting of his pitch count. However, he's also never gotten an extended break due to some freak hang-nail injury or somesuch. On the whole, I just don't see the point of relentlessly sending Greinke out there. But then again, I haven't seen it for two months.

Attendance: Through 40 home dates, the Royals have averaged 19,196 patrons at the K, good for the 29th among ML clubs. The extinction of the Expos has meant that the Royals and Devil Rays are seemingly destined to spend the next decade fighting one another hand-to-hand each season for the Worst Attendance Crown, although the Marlins, Pirates, Indians and Tigers are always strong clubs as well. The Devil Rays have completely dropped off the earth this season, averaging only 13,466 to date. Surprisingly, Cleveland's not doing too much better than the Royals, pulling in only 22,110 a game, despite a) a better team, b) a supposedly newer, better ballpark and c) the long-cherished notion of Cleveland as a revived baseball town... I'm not seeing it.

Bell: Buddy Bell is now 13-18 as the Royals' Manager.

Former Royal Update: Hmm... where to begin? Lets just go with the big names.

Johnny Damon is doing quite well, hitting .338/.381/.471, while Carlos Beltran is doing his best John Buck impersonation in New York, hitting .266/.323/.431. Jermaine Dye never quite became what it briefly looked like he could, but his power is creeping back, hitting .269/.326/.526 with 18 bombs. Raul Ibanez is still doing OK in Seattle, posting a .294/.357/.475 line while playing alot of first base. Finally, Joe Randa's proving that he can still hang around on a major league roster, hitting .296/.367/.496. I'm shocked that Randa's plate discipline has now out-paced Mike Sweeney's. Never would have guessed that in 2001.

Now that some distance is between us and Joe Randa, we can safely begin to assess his place in Royals history. Looking at the raw numbers, Randa's played a larger role than might be expected, and its possible that he's one of the defining players of this post-Brett swoon that will seemingly never end. He's not at Sweeney's stature, but by virtue of his longer tenure as a Royal, he's mostly ahead of more talented players like Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran, stars who shone too brightly for the Glass Family's spending sensibilities.

Lets take a look at Randa's Royals legacy (1995-6, 1999-2004). Here's his team history rank in the major categories:

Batting Average: .288 (9th All-Time)

On-Base Percentage: .340 (15th)

Slugging Percentage: .428 (16th)

Thats a .288/.340/.428 line as a Royal. During an era in which the K was one of the AL's better hitter's parks (more or less), and during the now wrongly named "steroids era", its not terribly great in its own context. Still, its a production line with its merits, especially given that 3rd base has weirdly become a pretty weak offensive position in the last decade or so.

Games: 1019 (8th)

Runs: 489 (10th)

Hits: 1084 (7th)

Total Bases: 1611 (7th)

Doubles: 233 (7th)

Home Runs: 86 (12th)

RsBI: 86 (7th)

I think I'm right to assume these numbers are a tad surprising, especially the games played total and the doubles and total bases to a lesser extent. Well, this is what regularity and adequecy can get you, and its worth celebrating in a way.

Its safe to say that Joe Randa is the second best 3rd baseman in Royals history, and is probably one of the 5 best Royals of the last decade or so (say, post-strike era).

Lets briefly honor Joe's best season, 1999.

Joe played in 156 games, and hit an impressive .314/.363/.478 with a career high 16 homers and 84 RBI. Joe finished 6th in the league in hits, 5th in triples (8) and 8th in singles. Its almost like he was Ichiro Lite...

With Sweeney, Damon, Beltran, Dye, Feebles and Randa all having good offensive years, it looked like the Royals were a young exciting team on the rise. Of course, carrying around Chad Kreuter's .225/.309/.318 helped to drag the offense down and Rey Sanchez wasn't much better.

Famously among Royals fans, the 1999 team had one of the worst bullpens of all time, rivaled only by the 2000 team, which prompted the terrible Roberto Hernandez "Proven Closer" acquisition. Those teams are still a good lesson to us Royals fans, that youth ill-wasted and ill-supported, even when talented, doesn't always develop into something worth while. Damon, Beltran and Sweeney were all "home grown" more or less, but when your carrying ciphers around the diamond and have one of the worst pitching staffs in the league it doesn't matter. Joe Randa, along with Sweeney, was a surprising gift at that time, and we'll always carry those wonderful memories with us.

Postscript: Last October Randa made his first career postseason appearance with the Padres, a well deserved reward for his years of toil. While the Padres were swept, it wasn't because of the Joker, who hit .364/.417/.455 in three games. Weirdly, just as Randa made his triumphant return to Kansas City in 1999, in December of 2005 he signed with Pittsburgh, giving him two teams for which he has now played twice. To date, Randa has made $19 million in baseball.