With the trade deadline looming and the continued pursuit of the roster/organization on everyone's mind  it's worthwhile to take a look at the moves Dayton Moore has already made. Part I takes a look at how the position players with the big club. Stay tuned for Part II (big league pitchers) and Part III (minor leaguers).

It was 2006, Lebanon and Israel were doing their thing, FEMA did a "heckuva job" in New Orleans and the Royals were supposedly beginning an era of competence (as per Posnanski after Opening Day) thanks to a bizarre December spending spree that brought in Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, Joe Mays, Paul Bako and Reggie Sanders. (Vintage RR posts here and here.) Meanwhile, the franchise was a full season behind the Beltran trade and preparing for the Jackson County Stadium Tax Subsidy Vote. In a stunning coincidence, Bud Selig "promised" Kansas City an All-Star game pending a proper allocation of JC's limitless public monies.

To a surprising extent, the 2006 lineup, as Moore more or less inherited it, remains the 2008 edition. You can find good teams that have had more turnover than this:

	2006	2008
C	Buck	Buck
1B	Mientkiewicz	Gload
2B	Grudzielanek	Grudzielanek
3B	Teahen	Gordon
SS	Berroa	Pena
RF	Sanders	Teahen
CF	DeJesus	DeJesus
LF	Brown	Guillen
DH	Sweeney	Butler
B-C	Bako	Olivo
Bench	Graffanino	Gathright
Bench	German	German
Bench	Stairs	Aviles
Bench	Costa	Callaspo

The 2006 Royals went 62-100.

You can quibble with some of these slots as they are crudely defined here -- for example, I'm considering Gathright a bench player in the table above, although he's actually played more innings in CF than anyone else -- but for quick and dirty purposes these are the positions according to the organizational masterplan for the two seasons. As in Gathright's case, for some of the players "bench" may not be quite the right label, but more or less it works, and I've included only the additional players who logged significant playing time.

What stands out is how much holdover there has been. Three of the positions are exactly the same, although perhaps not without some controversy. Buck is still the primary catcher, Grudzielanek is still at second base and DeJesus is still in center. Moreover, Mark Teahen remains an everyday fixture in the lineup, although he's shifted from third base to the outfield, and Esteban German is still a utility player. When you factor in that Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, lineup cornerstones if everything goes well, are also Baird-era draftees, the 2008 lineup remains a very Allard creation.

Subjectively and intuitively, the 2008 edition should be better than their 2006 progenitor: the holdovers (Buck, Teahen, DeJesus) should be hitting their peaks, Emil Brown has been upgraded to Jose Guillen and a decline-phase Mike Sweeney has been converted to supposed prospect and pure hitter Billy Butler. Miguel Olivo is a huge upgrade over Paul Bako. Unfortunately, the sum of their parts just hasn't quite added up to being much more better than the Minky era. The 2006 team ended up averaging 4.67 runs per game, better than the current squad's 4.06 average.

Huh?

To start, the holdovers, DeJesus somewhat excepted, have failed to truly break out. Grudz and German are still around and are, as the man sang, still the same. We wait still on Gordon and Butler to truly arrive. Seemingly really easy upgrades at SS and 1B have turned into, umm... Tony Pena Jr. and Ross Gload. This bears repeating. Just find someone better than the worst overall player in the game (Berroa) and one of the weakest first basemen (Minky). He couldn't do it. Where have you gone Doug Mientkiewicz? Jose Guillen has had one insanely awesome month and two bad ones. Finally, although Miguel Olivo has out-hit Paul Bako, Dayton Moore's first big league pickup, Joey Gathright, has eaten up a ton of playing time over the last three seasons and consistently failed to hit. In 237 plate appearances this year, Gator has three extra-base hits. Three. In 248 last year, he had eight. Gains like the Bako/Olivo and the Brown/Guillen exchanges have been mitigated by players like Gathright.

Over the last few months there's been a persistent meme that Moore is focused on rebuilding -- really, "building" should be used throughout this post, since it was so long ago that anything around here was actually built -- the organization's pitching coffers, and that the lineup will be more of a patchwork project. And while it isn't yet clear that the team's lineup core is actually enough of one to bother building around, it was certainly more than there was among the hurlers. Sure, in 2008, Butler and Gordon are disappointments, but they are near locks to improve, at least a little bit. There are problems however, and Moore is not immune criticism for his utter failure to upgrade the roster at two slots, SS and 1B, that looked to be no-brainer/any AAA lifer would have been better. He hasn't found better bench options than what Allard managed in Stairs/Costa/Graffy and it's possible he's done worse.

Lastly, there's the large but mysterious issue of defense. The quality of the team's defense is harder to definitively pin-down, but according to BP's defensive efficiency data, the 2008 squad is, relative to competition, an improvement. Then again, the 2006 team was terrible, posted a D-Eff of .682, good for 28th best in baseball and 13th in the AL. The current team stands at 19th overall and 9th in baseball. (Although the pure number, .698, is not much different.) So regarding defense, Moore has taken a terrible team and produced a below-average one.

The Royals hired Moore on May 31, 2006 and after over two years of his stewardship, the offense is worse than the bad one he inherited.  Considering that he also had nothing to do with Butler or Gordon, and with no notable position prospects in the system, we must conclude that Dayton's handling of the position players in blue and white has been akin to Argentina's performance in the Falklands War: at best, a disappointment, and at worst an abject failure.

 

Later this season division titles will be won, leading inexorably to pennant winners and eventually another champion. Based on twenty to sixty at bats, a new doxology of the "Catechism of Clutch" will be compiled, complete with new saints and sinners. We'll spend half the winter likely thinking, "I still can't believe [Team X] won the World Series", and then, somewhere between the Super Bowl and Spring Training, it'll sink in, and we'll start looking ahead to the 2007 season. Positive history, the stuff that actually happens will be recorded and to the extent possible by our kind, remembered in some sense of the word's potential.

Sometimes history is unmade rather than made, the manifest events that don't end up happening because something mundane took its place. For most of us, slogging away in an anonymity bound only for oblivion, this is our fate. As Larkin said, "nothing, like something, happens anywhere".

Right now, across the dark heartland of the summer night, something terrible is dying, being erased from the history books of the future: The Kansas City Royals, almost inexplicably, are moving towards a merely terrible 2006 season, but they won't be the worst team of all-time.

June 3 Record: 13-40
July 2 Record: 27-52

In their last 26 games, the Royals have gone 14-12, winning more games in that span than they had in their first 53. The Royals have raised their season winning percentage from .245 to .342, which is harder than it sounds. Sure, its also fairly difficult to play that bad for the first two and a half months, but for once, its time to focus on the positives. Especially after a strangely magical 8-7 11 inning win in St. Louis.

We may be bad, but you can start putting the Royals and the Pirates in the same conversation now, and the Cubs aren't far behind.

Offensive Heroes of the Last 30 Days (from MLB.com sortables):

John Buck: .283/.386/.567
David DeJesus: .346/.443/.510
Emil Brown: .329/.385/.506
Matt Stairs: .288/.377/.500
Mark Teahen: .310/.362/.506
Doug Mientkiewicz: .292/.383/.449

Honorable Mentions:

Joey Gathright: .292/.414/.375 (in 9 games as a Royal)
Esteban German: .273/.333/.394

Thats almost a functional major league lineup core and two helpful fringe players if you look closely. Teahen's actually had two mini-flaming hot streaks and a terrible two weeks in between, which sorta gets obscured in his channeling of 1999 Joe Randa. Needless to say, its time to revive the TEAHEN FOR ALL-STAR!! campaign.

Together, Minky and Emil Brown are almost making Allard Baird seem wronged, while the emergence of a over .900 OPS John Buck is making the Beltran deal (which also included Teahen) look like a victory. Remember, the Royals didn't trade away 5 seasons of Carlos, they traded away two months...

On the whole, the offense has been surprisingly good, although a bit lucky. In the last 30 days the Royals are 9th in baseball in runs scored, at 144 in 28 games. This despite having a modest team OPS of .746, which ranks 21st. A team line of .267/.341/.405 doesn't exactly belie future success, but the Royals have clustered hits enough to milk out an above-average number of runs.

And sure, Buddy still indulges his Angel-fetish (.216/.255/.237 in his last 26 games) with pathological dedication, but at least we can relish the fact that the Gathright trade doesn't look entirely dullard-tastic yet. Royals Review, if it stands for anything, is about affirmation.

Pitching Heroes of the Last 30 Days:

Mark Redman: 4.42 ERA (38.2 IP)
Mike Wood: 4.56 ERA (25.2 IP)
Brandon Duckworth: 5.57 ERA (21.0 IP)
Elmer Dessens: 3.18 ERA (17.0 IP)
Jeremy Affeldt: 3.31 ERA (16.1 IP)
Jimmy Gobble: 2.25 ERA (16.0 IP)
Todd Wellemeyer: 1.13 ERA (8.0 IP)

Despite struggles from Self-Appointed Team Effort Inspector Scott Elarton (5.60 ERA in his last 27 IP) and the hurtful exposure of the real Bobby Keppel (6.18 ERA), the Royals have amazingly fielded an acceptable American League pitching staff. Sure, Brandon Duckworth's ERA is 5.57, but considering the context of his innings -- "hey, can you pitch for us? OK, cool, umm, here's a uniform" -- its the prettiest mid 5.00 ERA since, I dunno, sometime when some other random came in off the street...

Moreover, in a fascinating development, Buddy Bell continues to get good work out of Jimmy Gobble and Elmer Dessens nearly every night. Sure, the purported "stopper" Burgos has been, umm, "mercurial" during the hot streak (9.26 ERA), but we can't have everything go right. Gobble's even struck out 12 men in his 16 innings of work, which raises the question: why isn't every failed starter converted to reliever for awhile? It may be a reverse Weaverism, but given the current state of how pitchers are handled ("you've failed at this for 4 other teams, lets see what you can do for us") I don't see how it can be any worse.

The team ERA since June 2nd is at 5.09 (25th), essentially the mark of a sketchy staff, but not something that can't be worked around enough for a random run of .500 baseball. Considering the Royals' team ERA in April was 5.95 and an incredible 6.51 in the month of May. Still, we return to a more frightening question: is not a historically bad season a good thing for the franchise. As someone -- was it once Pat Riley? -- said, nothing clarifies like losing. On those grounds, yes, its hard not to imagine a 43 win season having a purgative effect, even in a media market as relatively tame as Kansas City, and even for an ownership as both fossilized and arrogant as la familia Glass.

On the other hand, we've already had the closest approximation of drastic change that I think we can expect with the firing of Allard Baird and the Dayton Moore hire. From here, its a more philosophical question, which depends on how you view a Major League roster. Is there some inherent difference between a 45 win team and a 55 win team, or a 65 win team? Does that difference usually manifest itself as something that can be easily added to, or is the scale different. Last week I lamented that a 120 loss Royal team could improve by 30 games -- itself extremely difficult -- and still be a 5th place team. Others felt, citing the 2003 Tigers, that the easiest portion of the path to respectability is those first 20 wins of improvement. If thats the case, then it may still be a net negative if the Royals don't lose 121 games this season, because the organization may feel more comfortable with what it has.

This is a blank truth thats hard to swallow, yet not hard to believe. But, regardless of what kind of GM Dayton Moore is, you have to believe he wants to do better, he wants to win, he wants to make a name for himself. That motivation should be there, no matter how the team plays. If Dayton's dumb enough to fall in love with Buddy Bell or Angel Berroa or Dougie, then so be it, it was probably going to happen anyway.

Matt Stairs has hit 207 home runs in the major leagues. Only 54 active players have more, a number which will certainly shrink given the likelihood that guys like Sammy Sosa, Tim Salmon etc have probably played their last game. Stairs is tied for 69th among active players with an even 700 RsBI, tied with Johnny Damon of all people. After years struggling on the bench and in part-time duties, Stairs thrived in Oakland, finding a franchise that valued what he could do rather than what he couldn't. Stairs bopped 122 homers in five seasons in Oakland, including 38 in 1998. In the storied history of the A's franchise, Stairs' 122 ranks as 16th All-time. In over 4300 plate appearances, Stair's career line is .267/.361/.489 (or better than Ken Harvey having the month of his life). .489 slugging lifetime? Thats pretty damn good.

The idea in recent years is that Stairs is a platoon player, hence Buddismo's preference for playing Joe McEwing at first/DH occasionally. This continues to be the thought heading into next season, as the franchise pointlessly turns to Minky as an answer. However, in limited duty last season, Stairs has managed a .259/.400/.389 line against lefties. Umm... I'll take that .400 OBP... Nea, the Royals have so many viable options, lets get cute and pray for an empty .290 batting average from the position. Yea, sounds good. Granted, in the last three seasons, Stairs' lefty split is not quite as good, .228/.338/.383.

Matt Stairs is 34th All-Time among KC Royals hitters with an astounding 31 homers in blue and white. Ever feel really bored and down on yourself? (You're reading a B-level Royals blog, is this question even worth asking?) Well, take a look at the Royals' All-Time Home Run Board. There just hasn't been much power on this franchise, and some of the more sluggardly sluggers have only been around for a few years... Mike Tucker is #29, Joe Randa is 12th, Aaron Guiel is 39th for goodness sakes. If Stairs gets to 15 homers next season, he'd creep into the low 20s, part of a threeway tie at 45 including the Mighty Quinn and Lou Pinella.

Not that it really matters -- since, of course, almost nothing is actually at stake -- but a nice benchmark for how sane the Royals are will be comparing Minky's playing time to Stairs'. Then again, Minky's probably more likely to be slightly below average, given Stairs' additional age. On the other hand, only Stairs has really any chance of being an above average player. For the record, Minky's career line is .268/.359/.405.

One last thing, anyone else expecting a Emil Brown collapse this season? Sign Ben Greive now!

I am one of the best 100 Royals ever. Eh, maybe Top 150.

On this well-earned off day, lets take a look at the Royals "Top Five" in a few critical categories.

OPS:

1. Matt Stairs .907
   
2. Mike Sweeney .847
   
3. Emil Brown .834
   

(4. Shane Costa .796 in 16AB)
5. Tony G. .796

Well, right off the bat, we see a problem, as Stairs and Sweeney essentially play the same position, although the Royals have been fairly good about getting them as many combined ABs as possible. Once again, its nice to see Emil Brown doing OK, and a .834 OPS is nothing to dismiss too easily. Pickering never got his chance, but Emil did, and is making the most of it.

OBP:

1. Shane Costa .421
   
2. Matt Stairs .411
   
3. Tony G .387
   
4. Emil Brown .356
   
5. David DeJesus .352

DeJesus continues to fashion himself as a good OBP source, despite his batting average and power struggles thus far. I'm not sure why he's continually stayed in the 2-hole behind "Berroa's Magical Out Machine", but then again, I've never looked into the fiery eyes of Buddy Bell. Sweeney's eroding discipline continues, and his 12 walks drawn this season is a major disapointment. Simply put, he's just not an elite player with a walk-rate that low. I'm convinced Mike's on about year three of pressing big time, but there isn't much that can be done about it now.

SLG:

1. Mike Sweeney .505
   
2. Matt Stairs .496
   
3. Emil Brown .478
   
4. Tony Gr. .407
   
5. David DeJesus .402

So clearly, DeJesus is already a superior player to Angel Berroa (.368), who supposedly is a decent power source. In the New/Old K however, homers are harder to find, although triples and doubles are a tad more plentiful. I wouldn't bet on Sweeney staying above .500 all season, and its not a good sign when Tony Graffanino is fourth on your team in SLG. That gaping maw between Emil and Tony on the power depth chart should have been filled by Eli Marrerro or Pickering this season, but alas, for differing reasons that wasn't allowed to happen.

BA AVG:

1. Tony G. .321
   
2. Shane Costa .313
   
3. Mike Sweeney .298
   
4. Joe McEwing .294
   
5. David DeJesus .283

Welcome to the unsustainable portion of today's programme, as we have Tony Graffinino's, Shane Costa's and Super Joe McEwing's runs at team glory. Mike's tough June (.238 AVG) has dropped him below .300, which has probably hurt his trade value in Anaheim and elsewhere. I'm not even sure how I'm supposed to feel about that anymore.

Finally, think lineup order is irrelevant? Thanks in part to his health, and in part to his frequent lead-off role: Angel Berroa leads the Royals in PAs this season, with 258- and its not even close. As we can briefly see here, Berroa ISN'T REALLY GOOD AT ANYTHING, but becuase he's fast (yet still dumb on the bases) the Royals view him as the lineup's "spark plug" and have seemingly made a committment to letting him begin as many games with an out as is possible. The man has drawn 8 walks this season. Eight!

Whats so hard about this?