With the trade deadline looming and the continued pursuit of the roster/organization on everyone's mind  it's worthwhile to take a look at the moves Dayton Moore has already made. Part I takes a look at how the position players with the big club. Stay tuned for Part II (big league pitchers) and Part III (minor leaguers).

It was 2006, Lebanon and Israel were doing their thing, FEMA did a "heckuva job" in New Orleans and the Royals were supposedly beginning an era of competence (as per Posnanski after Opening Day) thanks to a bizarre December spending spree that brought in Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, Joe Mays, Paul Bako and Reggie Sanders. (Vintage RR posts here and here.) Meanwhile, the franchise was a full season behind the Beltran trade and preparing for the Jackson County Stadium Tax Subsidy Vote. In a stunning coincidence, Bud Selig "promised" Kansas City an All-Star game pending a proper allocation of JC's limitless public monies.

To a surprising extent, the 2006 lineup, as Moore more or less inherited it, remains the 2008 edition. You can find good teams that have had more turnover than this:

	2006	2008
C	Buck	Buck
1B	Mientkiewicz	Gload
2B	Grudzielanek	Grudzielanek
3B	Teahen	Gordon
SS	Berroa	Pena
RF	Sanders	Teahen
CF	DeJesus	DeJesus
LF	Brown	Guillen
DH	Sweeney	Butler
B-C	Bako	Olivo
Bench	Graffanino	Gathright
Bench	German	German
Bench	Stairs	Aviles
Bench	Costa	Callaspo

The 2006 Royals went 62-100.

You can quibble with some of these slots as they are crudely defined here -- for example, I'm considering Gathright a bench player in the table above, although he's actually played more innings in CF than anyone else -- but for quick and dirty purposes these are the positions according to the organizational masterplan for the two seasons. As in Gathright's case, for some of the players "bench" may not be quite the right label, but more or less it works, and I've included only the additional players who logged significant playing time.

What stands out is how much holdover there has been. Three of the positions are exactly the same, although perhaps not without some controversy. Buck is still the primary catcher, Grudzielanek is still at second base and DeJesus is still in center. Moreover, Mark Teahen remains an everyday fixture in the lineup, although he's shifted from third base to the outfield, and Esteban German is still a utility player. When you factor in that Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, lineup cornerstones if everything goes well, are also Baird-era draftees, the 2008 lineup remains a very Allard creation.

Subjectively and intuitively, the 2008 edition should be better than their 2006 progenitor: the holdovers (Buck, Teahen, DeJesus) should be hitting their peaks, Emil Brown has been upgraded to Jose Guillen and a decline-phase Mike Sweeney has been converted to supposed prospect and pure hitter Billy Butler. Miguel Olivo is a huge upgrade over Paul Bako. Unfortunately, the sum of their parts just hasn't quite added up to being much more better than the Minky era. The 2006 team ended up averaging 4.67 runs per game, better than the current squad's 4.06 average.

Huh?

To start, the holdovers, DeJesus somewhat excepted, have failed to truly break out. Grudz and German are still around and are, as the man sang, still the same. We wait still on Gordon and Butler to truly arrive. Seemingly really easy upgrades at SS and 1B have turned into, umm... Tony Pena Jr. and Ross Gload. This bears repeating. Just find someone better than the worst overall player in the game (Berroa) and one of the weakest first basemen (Minky). He couldn't do it. Where have you gone Doug Mientkiewicz? Jose Guillen has had one insanely awesome month and two bad ones. Finally, although Miguel Olivo has out-hit Paul Bako, Dayton Moore's first big league pickup, Joey Gathright, has eaten up a ton of playing time over the last three seasons and consistently failed to hit. In 237 plate appearances this year, Gator has three extra-base hits. Three. In 248 last year, he had eight. Gains like the Bako/Olivo and the Brown/Guillen exchanges have been mitigated by players like Gathright.

Over the last few months there's been a persistent meme that Moore is focused on rebuilding -- really, "building" should be used throughout this post, since it was so long ago that anything around here was actually built -- the organization's pitching coffers, and that the lineup will be more of a patchwork project. And while it isn't yet clear that the team's lineup core is actually enough of one to bother building around, it was certainly more than there was among the hurlers. Sure, in 2008, Butler and Gordon are disappointments, but they are near locks to improve, at least a little bit. There are problems however, and Moore is not immune criticism for his utter failure to upgrade the roster at two slots, SS and 1B, that looked to be no-brainer/any AAA lifer would have been better. He hasn't found better bench options than what Allard managed in Stairs/Costa/Graffy and it's possible he's done worse.

Lastly, there's the large but mysterious issue of defense. The quality of the team's defense is harder to definitively pin-down, but according to BP's defensive efficiency data, the 2008 squad is, relative to competition, an improvement. Then again, the 2006 team was terrible, posted a D-Eff of .682, good for 28th best in baseball and 13th in the AL. The current team stands at 19th overall and 9th in baseball. (Although the pure number, .698, is not much different.) So regarding defense, Moore has taken a terrible team and produced a below-average one.

The Royals hired Moore on May 31, 2006 and after over two years of his stewardship, the offense is worse than the bad one he inherited.  Considering that he also had nothing to do with Butler or Gordon, and with no notable position prospects in the system, we must conclude that Dayton's handling of the position players in blue and white has been akin to Argentina's performance in the Falklands War: at best, a disappointment, and at worst an abject failure.

 

While the close of the Mike Sweeney Era has understandably received the most attention, the 2008 campaign will also be the first since 2005 which won't include the vaguely adequate production and braggadocio of Emil Brown. While the end of Emil's time in Kansas City has been long established, (and debated, thanks to a flurry of interest generated by Poz) there's something appropriate about returning to it now, during Spring Training, considering that Emil was that rarest of creatures: the man who makes the team in March.

A Chicago native, Emil was drafted in 1994 by Oakland, and ended up joining the Pirates as a Rule Five draftee in 1996. Brown broke camp with the Pirates in 1997, and while he never stuck as a regular, he spent the entire season getting a big league per diem. Brown hit only .179/.304/.284 in 66 games that year, and aside from a bizarre four day stretch in which he hit his first two big league homers of Terry Mulholland, then with the Cubs, little of note occurred. Although his season was lame and unremarkable, according to some insiders, his infectious attitude and brio helped inspire his teammates to a 79-83 record, the last time the Pirates were sorta OK.

Brown returned mostly to the minor leagues in 1998-9, appearing in only 19 games total as a Pirate. In 2000 however, Emil was called back up for short stints in May, June and July, before getting an extended look in August and September. Brown was 25 then, and this was his time to prove himself. Instead, he began his callup with an 0-8 in a doubleheader against the Dodgers, and ultimately hit .204/.288/.280 in 39 games and 101 PAs with the Pirates. Undeterred, the Pirates gave him one last start, as he again headed north with the Bucs in 2001, serving as the team's primary center fielder until July 1, when he was traded to the Padres. At the time of the trade, he was hitting just .203/.300/.325. Emil was consistent as a Pirate: he never hit. With the '01 Padres Brown didn't do much better, hitting .071/.133/.071, almost exclusively as a pinch hitter.

At the end of his age 26 season, Brown was the owner of a career .200/.289/.302 line in 457 scattered PAs. Essentially, he was fully blossoming into a tweener, only, tweeners are supposed to hit better than that. For the next three years, Brown bounced from the Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Houston organizations. While he hit decently in 2002-3, in early 2004 he was terrible, hitting .281/.339/.333 in Memphis and was released by the Cardinals. In August, he was signed by the Astros, and he responded with a .337/.365/.533 line in 26 games with New Orleans. That hot streak likely earned him another contract with the Royals, and was the beginning of his emergence, at age 30, as a Major leaguer.

Against very weak competition, Brown emerged during Spring Training 2005 as the strongest candidate for the right field job thanks to an inspired March. Brown, hit .389 in 26 games that spring, belting five homers for good measure. Brown was not the Opening Day starter, that ceremonial honor went to Matt Stairs, but he did start in game two, and essentially remained an everyday player for the next three seasons.

Interestingly, Brown's hot March - a stretch that likely saved his career and earned him millions of dollars - did not translate into a hot April and May. He hit .161/.254/.339 during his first eighteen games with the Royals, a level of performance which would have landed back on the journeyman AAA player fun bus had he done so the month before. Brown responded with a strong May however, settling in as a regular with a .313/.389/.506 line. In June, he got even hotter, hitting .366/.412/.527. On July 1, 2005, he was hitting .297/.365/.474 and had been the cleanup hitter for a big league team for two solid months. After his two month tear, Brown would never hit at such a high level, for so long, again as a Royal. He would have two similar months in 2006, but they were not consecutive. From July 1 until the end of the season, Brown hit .278/.336/.441, and finished the year with a .286/.349/.455 line in 144 starts and 150 games total. His 86 RsBI would lead the team, and he would finish second on the club with 17 home runs. This was all acceptable enough, one would suppose, but hardly something truly valuable. Brown had his merits. He was cheap, and for a mid-decade Royal, Brown was insanely patient, which along with a solid batting average made him productive. Despite being a large man however, Emil was never a true power hitter. In 2005, Mike Sweeney, despite playing in 28 fewer games, managed more homers (21 to 17) and more doubles (39 to 31) than Emil.

Either happy with Emil's generic production or dissatisfied with any better options, Allard firmly ensconced Emil as the regular left fielder in 2006, switching sides to accommodate Reggie Sanders. Ironically, Brown had a terrible Spring Training this time around, hitting .211. (If Brown was one of the game's designated bad men, this is where you'd insert something snarky about his sense of entitlement or laziness or whatever. But, he's not, for whatever reason, so no biggie.) As he had done in 2005, Brown crawled out of the gate, hitting .227/.315/.333 in April. By May, he was Emil Brown again, which is to say he was Ken Harvey was less doubles and a little bit more power. In June of 2006 he had one of his two remaining good months as a Royal, hitting .329/.385/.506. Specifically, from June 2-27, he hit .338/.391/.532, helping the Royals win nine of eleven games, mostly against the National League. Again, although I was never quite cognizant of it at the time, with Emil, it was really always about batting average. When he hit .360 on balls in play from time to time, he was a dangerous hitter. Throughout his Royal tenure, he never really had a power surge. He had singles surges. In 2006 he mixed in some doubles power, but that was it. Despite certain physical and career similarities to someone like Jack Cust, Emil really wasn't your typical AAAA journeyman with under-appreciated secondary skills. Not surprisingly, the singles and the RsBI kept Emil in the good graces of many.

Brown cooled off in July, as his monthly BA dropped to .270. In August, at the age of 31, Emil put together one final, sustained, hot streak as a Royal, hitting .327/.382/.571. His best slugging month ever, Emil hit five homers that August, and added nine doubles, also a large total for him. However, once again, he cooled off again in September, and finished the year with a .287/.358/.457 line. Cumulatively, his rate stats were just slightly better, but thanks to a few weeks missed due to small injuries, his season totals dropped a wee little smidgen. He ended up with 15 HRs and 81 RsBI. Only the power hitting alien that invaded Mark Teahen's body in 2006 prevent Emil from proudly leading the team in those two categories that year. Considering that Emil made $1.7 million in 2006 (thank you zombie service time from the late 1990s!) he was slowly sliding from cool story to just another unlovable player on a bad team.

Still, in 2006, perhaps inspired by Teahen, Emil managed 41 doubles, which was actually 9th best in the AL that season, a nice accomplishment, even given the inherent weirdness of the doubles leaderboard each year. (Fast guys, singles hitters, and dudes who play in Fenway a lot, rinse, repeat.) After another generic Spring Training in which he hit .267 (insert second snarky remark about Emil's lack of motivation and focus), Emil once again hit terribly in April, coughing up a .186/.237/.229 line. Unfortunately, after a third straight cold start, Emil didn't turn up the heat in May. Well, we'll all remember his one homer that month, a blast in game 43 at Coors Field (this was before God made the Rockies win), and more astute fans may even be able to recall his lone double that month as well. All told, he hit .218/.283/.327 in May. Through May 30th Emil was hitting .200/.257/.272, and competing with, sadly, a whole host of Royals for the title of Worst Hitter in the American League. He had one home run, one triple and four doubles.

With the change of the calendar, Emil celebrated June with a two-hit game, double-included game over those stingy Devil Rays hurlers. The rest of the way, that is to say, over the next 75 games and 261 PAs, Emil hit .286/.322/.386 and finished the year with a .257/.300/.347 line. Returning to the numbers behind his mini-resurgence over the final four months of the season, it's clear enough that something had changed. Even when he got his batting average back he'd lost nearly half his walks and almost all of his power. As part of the team's miracle run at a remarkably low HR total, Emil managed only six bombs, and just 13 doubles. After paying Brown over $3.3 million to be a slower Shane Costa, Dayton Moore elected not to bring him back for 2008, a decision he has been unable to reach with similarly uninspiring players such as Ross Gload and Mark Grudzielanek.

Of course, no mention of Emil's 2007 season would be complete without reference to the embarrassing and infantile pellet gun incident, which occurred on July 27th. While she was standing near Pena's locker, Karen Kornacki was hit "near the eye" with a pellet fired from a plastic gun by Emil. Amazingly, a man who was born in 1974 had a pellet gun on his person. A man born in 1974, who is a millionaire, no less. After being a curious news item for a few days, the story quickly faded away, apparently just a weird and funny accident.

Coupled with the loss of Sweeney, the 2008 season should be especially heart-wrenching for Royals fans given Brown's historical legacy with the team. Emil ranks 37th in team history in hits (401, two behind Ibanez), 29th in doubles (85) and 34th in home runs. In spite of being both a silly and overrated statistic, Emil was a prolific RBI man, by the horrible standards of his franchise, and leaves as the 29th highest RBIer in team history, sandwiched between Angel Berroa and U.L. Washington. When DeJesus drives in his 21st man in 2008, we can only hope that the team honors him with an in-game ceremony, for at that moment, he will have eclipsed Emil.

Looking back, what stands out is how very fortunate Emil has been to even scratch out the modest career he's had. In 2004, he hit rock bottom when he was released by the Cardinals. Then, after getting another chance with the Astros, he turned in his best minor league mini-season ever, which earned him a throwaway Spring Training invite with the Royals. Blessed by the Royals' inability to produce young talent, even at the simplest of positions to fill, Brown had a rare chance to make the team, and he responded, with a you-can't-ignore-this Spring Training. Then, again saved by the lack of options around him, the team stuck with him two more times, after a slow 2005 start, and an OK but not great overall 2005 season.  In January, the A's signed Brown to a $1.4 million dollar contract, which will be the third largest payday of his career. While he will never be fabulously wealthy, his good fortune/hot hitting against AAA pitchers in 2004 and Spring Training flotsam in 2005 has meant that he can retire from the game, whenever, in financial comfort. In line to earn over six million dollars between 2006-08, Emil has crossed the threshold between having to, proverbially, sell insurance, and being able to live in self-employed comfort. Just three years ago, that seemed very very unlikely. Barely more likely, in fact, than say, me being able to do so.

Congratulations Emil. I hope you appreciate your good fortune.    

It's an off-day for our Royals, as they travel from Chicago to Colorado for a weekend set against the Rockies. Hopefully Bell's been making countless motivational speeches and "lookin' guys in the eye" and letting them know that this will not stand!

The Royals are now 5-20 against the AL Central this season, which is a fairly damning indication of their talent-level. Granted, the Central is having a solid season, and other than the Royals there are no train-wreck teams this season, when in the past their have sometimes been three. Still, the three-division format is baseball's unacknowledged form of parity control, putting the so-called "small-market" teams in the same division, and guaranteeing one of them a playoff spot. So, the Twins get a short series against the Yankees... sounds like a much better and quicker route to equity.

I digress. Let's take a look at some Royals numbers for June:

Angel Berroa: .235/.287/.333

Tony G.: .396/.453/.521

Mike Sweeney: .250/.250/.375 (good job on not taking a walk this month Mike)

Shane Costa: .297/.366/.405

Super Joe McEwing: .368/.429/.421 (he drew a walk? when?)

Emil Brown: .362/.416/.551 (wow, a legitimate major league hitter)

T. Long: .407/.444/.644 (you can't stop Terrence Long...)

David DeJesus: .286/.382/.416

Mark Teahen: .279/.310/.368

Ruben Gotay: .288/.358/.525

John Buck: .260/.288/.380

Matt Stairs: .222/.379/.378(still drawing his walks, slumping otherwise)

On the whole, you can see that June's been a good month for the Royals at the plate, despite downturns by Stairs and Sweeney that might have prevented the team from being really hot this month. T-Long, Gotay and Emil are having strong months, with DeJesus, Super Joe and Costa finding ways to contribute. Buck and Teahen haven't been great, but they haven't been completely terrible either.

Still, it's gonna be a long season in Kansas City, and it looks now like the Bell-Shine may be wearing off.

On this well-earned off day, lets take a look at the Royals "Top Five" in a few critical categories.

OPS:

1. Matt Stairs .907
   
2. Mike Sweeney .847
   
3. Emil Brown .834
   

(4. Shane Costa .796 in 16AB)
5. Tony G. .796

Well, right off the bat, we see a problem, as Stairs and Sweeney essentially play the same position, although the Royals have been fairly good about getting them as many combined ABs as possible. Once again, its nice to see Emil Brown doing OK, and a .834 OPS is nothing to dismiss too easily. Pickering never got his chance, but Emil did, and is making the most of it.

OBP:

1. Shane Costa .421
   
2. Matt Stairs .411
   
3. Tony G .387
   
4. Emil Brown .356
   
5. David DeJesus .352

DeJesus continues to fashion himself as a good OBP source, despite his batting average and power struggles thus far. I'm not sure why he's continually stayed in the 2-hole behind "Berroa's Magical Out Machine", but then again, I've never looked into the fiery eyes of Buddy Bell. Sweeney's eroding discipline continues, and his 12 walks drawn this season is a major disapointment. Simply put, he's just not an elite player with a walk-rate that low. I'm convinced Mike's on about year three of pressing big time, but there isn't much that can be done about it now.

SLG:

1. Mike Sweeney .505
   
2. Matt Stairs .496
   
3. Emil Brown .478
   
4. Tony Gr. .407
   
5. David DeJesus .402

So clearly, DeJesus is already a superior player to Angel Berroa (.368), who supposedly is a decent power source. In the New/Old K however, homers are harder to find, although triples and doubles are a tad more plentiful. I wouldn't bet on Sweeney staying above .500 all season, and its not a good sign when Tony Graffanino is fourth on your team in SLG. That gaping maw between Emil and Tony on the power depth chart should have been filled by Eli Marrerro or Pickering this season, but alas, for differing reasons that wasn't allowed to happen.

BA AVG:

1. Tony G. .321
   
2. Shane Costa .313
   
3. Mike Sweeney .298
   
4. Joe McEwing .294
   
5. David DeJesus .283

Welcome to the unsustainable portion of today's programme, as we have Tony Graffinino's, Shane Costa's and Super Joe McEwing's runs at team glory. Mike's tough June (.238 AVG) has dropped him below .300, which has probably hurt his trade value in Anaheim and elsewhere. I'm not even sure how I'm supposed to feel about that anymore.

Finally, think lineup order is irrelevant? Thanks in part to his health, and in part to his frequent lead-off role: Angel Berroa leads the Royals in PAs this season, with 258- and its not even close. As we can briefly see here, Berroa ISN'T REALLY GOOD AT ANYTHING, but becuase he's fast (yet still dumb on the bases) the Royals view him as the lineup's "spark plug" and have seemingly made a committment to letting him begin as many games with an out as is possible. The man has drawn 8 walks this season. Eight!

Whats so hard about this?