Frustrating loss tonight, and back to eight games under .500. Those dastardly Orioles! Essentially this is the result I expected last night, only this time Sherrill was able to finish the job.

• According to the fangraphs.com's version of WPA, Mike Aviles was the worst Royal of all tonight, at least among position players. An 0-5 with two GIDPs will do that. When he wasn't GIDPing, he was leaving the bases loaded. Has Aviles let success go to his head? Is he an unclutch destroyer of our national innocence like Alex Rodriguez?
• A lame and disappointing start for Hochevar, who couldn't avoid a big inning in the third, and couldn't quite keep the ball down enough.
• Your Jimmy Gobble ERA update is: 7.40. Um... not good. Not good at all. Gobble may be one of the 100 Greatest Royals of All-Time by the end of the season (Retro?) but he isn't doing anyone much good at this point.
  
• Gathright was decent tonight, getting to first base three times. Does anyone know Kenny Williams's cell number?
• Hey! Billy Butler hit another single. He's the new Grimace!
• Congrats to Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen for both homering tonight! With twenty combined homers out of third base and rightfield, the Royals have the AL Central shaking.
• Did anyone expect Alex to deliver in the 9th inning? I wasn't around on the game thread at the time, but I suspect there wasn't much juice.
  
• 19,756 people watched the game in the stands. It looks like it won't be hard for me to catch an Orioles game this September when I'm living in D.C.
  

The Royals went 10-19 in May, thanks in large part to an offense that was among the worst in the American League. The pitching staff, after a flaming hot start however, was not blameless either, as Royal hurlers have struggled for well over a month now. While overall the team's pitching numbers have been trending downward for a long time, the Royals nevertheless posted a slightly better monthly ERA in May (4.41) than they did in April (4.78).

Before looking at the May splits, it's worthwhile to take a look at the starter/bullpen breakdowns for the entire season.

There's a lot to digest there, and I didn't even include K/9 or HR data, for the sake of clarity. First, it looks like the starters are getting killed by BAA (bad defense?) because their control of the strikezone is surprisingly good, second-best in the AL in fact, behind only Oakland. The bullpen's K/BB number is also good, although only fourth best in the league, but they've also allowed fewer hits, contributing to a better ERA. Second, I'm stunned to see that the best Royal bullpen in decades has already fallen behind league average, a shocking development that does not reflect well on Trey Hillman's usage patterns, considering the number of good options he has to work with. Bullpen management is perhaps the area in which the manager has the most impact on a team's performance, and to this point, it would be hard to say that Hillman has done well there. In Hillman's defense (somewhat), the bullpen has been hit hard by the longball (18 allowed, fourth most in the league). Overall, the Royals rank 6th in strikeouts, rarefied air for a franchise that has spent most of the decade finishing somewhere between 12th and 14th, year after year.

Before we head-off to the land of individual performance (great wines there, by the way, but the roads are terrible) let's take a look at the staff numbers month by month:

Again, since the beginning of April was so superb, I don't think anyone would guess that actually, the pitching improved across the board in May. One final note on the overall pitching numbers: the Royals have only allowed 10 unearned runs, which is one of the lowest totals in the AL. This either means the Royals have been lucky in how they've timed their errors or that the staff has actually been a tick better than some AL staffs who have hidden lots of bad pitching behind "unearned" runs. The Twins for instance, have allowed over 30 invisible runs, at least in terms of ERA.

Here are the May numbers for the starters, sorted by innings pitched:

Gil Meche put in a very quiet, effective May, truly anchoring the staff, but his gains were offset by meltdowns by Bannister (although his nice Sunday start is obviously not in these numbers) and Tomko. Hochevar and Greinke were so-so, although I'm not quite sure how Greinke allowed so many runs, in spite of a lowish WHIP and decent strikeout numbers. Also, take a look at Banny's numbers: he's been striking out more guys than the mythology around him (and his detractors) would suggest. It's not as if he's 2004 Jimmy Gobble or anything.

And about that guy Gobble, here are the May reliever numbers, sorted again by IP:

Wow, four homers allowed by Peralta, eh!?!? Was anybody expecting to see Ramirez's May ERA that high? Like a few staff pitchers, his overall ERA still looks low, because he logged all those 0.00 ERA innings to start the season. It's fairly clear that Ramirez torpedoed the pen this month, and the sooner Hillman realizes the league may be catching up to him, the better. Likewise, did anyone notice that Yabuta had a decent month? Or that Nunez, whom I sorta thought was fading -- posted a 0.84 ERA in May?

Baseball Prospectus keeps a stat called Leverage, which keeps track of how important the situations a reliever's usage have occurred in. Guess which reliever has the highest leverage score in Hillman's pen? Brett Tomko, of course. As for more used relievers, the leverage rankings go like this: Nunez, Soria, Ramirez, Mahay, Gobble, Nomo, Peralta, Yabuta and Musser. Ideally, at the end of the season, we'll see Soria #1 (not third) and possibly Mahay higher in the chain.  For what it's worth, according to BP's numbers Yabuta, Gobble, Tomko and Peralta have all been below average relievers, and Tomko & Peralta have also been below replacement level. Oh, and Nomo, of course, but he's gone.

Lastly, a word about defense. BP's defensive efficiency stat rates the Royals as the 10th best defense in the American League, with a D-Eff of 0.699 , i.e., 69.9% of the balls in play have been turned into outs by the defense. The Rays lead the league at 72%. The Mariners are last at 68.2%. (Again, the closeness of these numbers should tell you something about the essential realities of the game: 30% of balls in play become hits, give or take a percent.) According to the numbers at the Hardball Times, the Royals have the second-worst defense in baseball however, just ahead of the Mariners.

Walks Drawn: 0

Caught Stealings:1

Extra-base Hits: 1

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Runs Scored: 0

Oh, and Joakim Soria never appeared in a game that was tied 0-0 going into the 9th. Instead, the 9th inning (with the heart of the Angel order coming up) was left in the hands of Ramirez, Gobble and Peralta. Gobble and Peralta are probably fourth and fifth best relievers on the team.

But, if the Royals had been winning 4-1, and the 7-8-9 hitters were due up, Soria woulda totally slammed the door. Totally.

--

p.s. I would be remiss without paying respect to Brett Tomko tonight: seven innings pitched, two walks, seven strikeouts, no runs allowed. Your Tomko ERA Update stands at 4.98, and he is now 30th amongst active pitchers in innings pitched.

Thanks to a few recent meltdowns all those nice, pretty, even awe-inspiring team pitching stats have taken a hit.

Still good, but not near how good things looked four or five days ago, when it looked like the Royals were going to be a late 1960s National League team. That being said, remember, it's been over a decade since the pitching staff was even above-average, much less good, so this is still considerable progress.

You can credit the bullpen for getting the Royals to 124 strikeouts so far (5th in the AL), as the 'pen has accounted for 57 of them. If you're curious, that's roughly 46% of the team's total, in 40% of the innings. One last word about the bullpen; while this is certainly a game-wide issue, it's hard to generalize too much about the bully, because there are actually two of them, the shutdown group of assassins that protects a lead (have we figured out if Rany's "Hispanic Panic" idea is insensitive, yet? I kinda think so) along with the group of scrubs randomly sent to fill time when the Royals are behind. (Or, sometimes, tied.) The recent trip featured numerous games where the Royals took a slight deficit and turned it into a laugher, and this just at the moment when we we're beginning to think the bullpen was invincible. It's somewhat fascinating that many feel Soria is too valuable as a closer to even consider becoming a starter, in light of the fact that he's pitched seven innings all year, a total which is probably a tad high since the Royals started out by winning many close games. Jimmy Gobble is still one batter short of his fourth inning of work. Again, we have a disconnect and an inability to consistently approach ideas in this sport from time to time. Hillman, and everyone else, wants pitchers to work more, last longer in games, throw more innings, etc., but for some reason Jimmy Gobble only needs to appear bi-weekly, for no more than five minutes at a time. Leo Nunez though, that dude's a horse, logging a hellish 7.2 innings to date.

While the pitching numbers have fallen back to earth, the offensive totals have just fallen further below the surface.

Take another look at that table. The American League average is dominating the Royals. Thanks to another weekend of insanity on the basepaths however, the Royals now can claim fourteen steals as a team, which would be Nipponific, if they hadn't also been caught 10 times (thats a 58% success rate folks). Still, you just can't measure how much all that disruption on the basepaths has intimidated the opposing pitchers. Nor can you measure how distracted and anxious they've been. I'm sure psychologists around the American League have seen  increased business since ole Trey showed up.

I just can't explain it, doc. Everywhere I turn, I see John Buck at the plate, with Ross Gload standing off first. Will Gload make a move, or will he stand still? It's terrifying!! I can't check my mail, I can't pay my alimony, I can't pick up fast food. And I certainly can't pitch.  I know he's going to run, but ... I ... I.... just... can't.... (breaks down sobbing)

The Royals have used all the pyschological warfare on the infield to generate... oh wait, they've only scored 63 runs, a total so low it looks like they've been playing baseball on Mercury. The Royals are eight runs -- so like three games -- behind the Twins, who are not only managed by Ron Gardenhire, but who voluntarily sought Adam Everett's services. I'll keep harping on this, because I actually discovered it, but last season the Royals hit 102 homers, the lowest total in the American League since the strike year of 1994, and if you take out that year, you actually have to go back a few more years to find a more impotent team. Well, this year, the Royals are on pace to hit about 77 home runs. I think I predicted 130 or so homers as a team somewhere, but I'm starting to have my doubts.

Thanks to a dominant bullpen, the Royals are 4-2. In seventeen innings pitched, members of the K.C. 'pen have posted an absurd 1.06 ERA. So yea, if every member of the bullpen is going to perform like vintage Eric Gagne, then no, none of this silly whining about hackfest will matter.

The numbers are after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

On the heels of the Royals meltdown in Tampa Bay, it might be a good time to post a Q & A session I did with the SB Nation Devil Rays blog last week. Enjoy:

1. The Royals and Rays are actually very similar franchises if you think about it. Both are in areas with no major population center, both franchises have, to put it bluntly, sucked over the last several years, and both have stadiums in areas which some fans would desribe as "inopportune locations". We have a heavy farm system, and that is what keeps some of us sane watching the Rays play, but how do you guys preserve and maintain your sanity as Royals fans?

Royals Review: I think there are some important differences, although I agree with your general premise, that it is somewhat puzzling that these teams have any fans. For one, the Royals had a nice 20-year run of success during the 70s and 80s, which has helped create a fairly dedicated, if old and jaded, old-school fanbase. The Royals have been living on those dividends for years now, with smaller returns each season, but it still helps. Secondly, KC has no NBA, no NHL and only one (albeit hugely popular) NFL team. More importantly, beyond Kansas basketball and Nebraska football, the region doesn't really have a larger than life college program which consumes endless attention. So, all in all, we've got time. As for sanity however, I don't think there are any sane Royals fans left. You'd be amazed what one fluky 83-win season (2003) can do however; perhaps you guys can experience this soon.

2. Kauffman Stadium is a facility that has really stood the test of time. Built 33 years ago, it is still regarded as one of the most beautiful stadiums in baseball. However some of its 70s era facilities are needing an upgrade, and an initiative is on the ballot in Jackson County to upgrade the Truman Sports Complex, that is Kauffman and Arrowhead Stadium, the home of the Chiefs. A previous ballot initiative was rejected by the voters, and there has also been some talk of building a downtown stadium. Now, taking in all of this, what is your opinion of this whole stadium issue, and could we really be faced with the prospect of no more waterfalls in a Kansas City ballpark?

Royals Review: On April 4th voters in Jackson County Missouri indeed approved the funding measure, bringing $425 million to the Royals over the next 25 years. But hey, the Royals tossed in $25 mil, so we can now read about the "joint-funded" renovations for the next decade. Considering the joint Royals-Chiefs lobbying team spent over $1.5 million advertising their cause, as well as the generally positive coverage sports teams nearly always receive, its remarkable that the move only passed with about 53%. Personally, I was against the measure - which came complete with fake Seligean announcements proclaiming "KC Awarded All-Star Game!!" followed by the qualifier, "if funding measure passes" - and largely insulted by the arguments for it. But then again, it probably shuts off further demands for a new Park, and precludes a contraction threat, so it may have been a lesser evil. I also don't live in Jackson County, so perhaps it is inappropriate for me to say much at all.

3. Another connection the Royals have to the Tampa Bay area is their old spring training facility. The Royals moved their spring training headquarters to Haines City/Davenport in 1988 as part of the "Boardwalk and Baseball" theme park commonly known as Baseball City. Well, the theme park closed two years after the Royals moved in, and the Crown left Central Florida in 2002 for greener pastures in Texas. How are you guys liking Surprise, and was Baseball City really that bad?

Royals Review: Just about anything is better than Kansas during March. However I was just a kid when I went through Baseball City, so I don't have really solid memories of it. Regarding Arizona, hmmm... what is there to say really? Someone should really write a book on how Spring Training is really changing, especially with high-profile teams (which of course, isn't the Royals). The Cubs presence in Arizona is incredible, it is still relatively low-key, but it is not like it probably used to be. Last, the Arizona run-inflation tends to ruin us every spring; we already know our pitching will suck, but I get emails from Royals fans every March with lines like, "I think this team will score some runs", and it never happens.

4. Now on to the player's side of things. The Royals previously had one of the worst farm systems in baseball, Dee Brown was their top prospect, 'nuff said. But now the team is finally focusing on the farm, and you are starting to see some talents like Justin Huber, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler rise through the farm system. Tell us a little about these three and, just generally, about the Crown's farm system.

Royals Review: The system is still weak, although with the Royals its almost impossible to objectively evaluate how they are doing for two reasons. One, their top players are almost all recently grabbed #1 or #2 picks, which are aided by their constant on-field failure. Its hard to mess up Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, they'll hit, but its also hard to truly praise the Royals for having them either. Congrats, you didn't draft an 18 year old who supposedly hit 100 mph and now is almost out of baseball. Secondly, if the Royals were a better team, some of there current players would almost certainly still be in the minors. In an alternate universe, players like John Buck and Mark Teahen might still be in AAA, along with about half the Royals pitching staff, and the Royals blogosphere would be filled with hope. Well guess what? Mark Teahen's never going to be an elite player. His upside is late 90s Joe Randa, but that's years away. The Royals have aggressively promoted their young pitchers to such an extreme that some have speculated they're actually attempting some kind of radical experiment in development. Still, essentially, it's a weak system.

5. Now on to the most depressing part of the interview, the actual Royals players themselves. First off, a relatively simple question. What the hell is up with Zach Greinke?

Royals Review: No one knows. He left camp on Feb 25th, and it seemed like a typical player-management meltdown that would blow over after a long weekend and a meeting over drinks at some Arizona gentleman's club. Instead, he never sniffed coming back, and was eventually placed on the 60 day-DL, sans an actual injury. The consensus seems to be, "he's a little different, one of those prodigy types that doesn't actually enjoy the game, and he clashed with the decidedly old-school Royals culture, especially Bell and the pitching coach, who tried to force him (amazingly) to throw 90% fastballs." The problem is (well beyond the incredible stupidity of that alleged coaching) that today Allard Baird is quoted as saying, "For the issues he's been going through, I'm really proud of him. He's a courageous young man." This seems to suggest something more substantial actually happened.

6. If nothing else, the Royals have a stable of talented pitchers. Tell us a little about guys like Ambiorix Burgos, Andrew Sisco, Mike Wood, Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Runelvys Hernandez, and Jeremy Affeldt.

Royals Review: The upside is competence, the downside is 110 loses. Runelyvs Hernandez probably has the most potential, but he's currently represented by Scott Boras and signed for only one more season. Should he be anything but terrible, there is an almost guaranteed chance he won't be in Kansas City in 2007. MacDougal, Burgos and Sisco are a potentially strong 1-2-3 bullpen punch, and are more or less the only Royal pitchers that strike anyone out. There is so much variance with these guys, and their unlikely to be as good in '06 as they were last season. Jimmy Gobble and Mike Wood are two of my favorite Royals, capable of putting up a 5.00 ERA in their sleep. Wood's an old low-upside A's prospect which the team seems to have soured on: why accept his 5.00 ERA when LimaTime can get you 7.50? Jimmy Gobble has the distinction of posting some of the lowest K-rates for a full time pitcher in Major League history, the fact that he's still a well-liked Royal should tell you all you need to know.

7. A follow-up question on Sisco, what do you do with him, bullpen, or move him into the rotation.

Royals Review: Send him to AAA for a month to get used to starting and then give him at least 15 starts with the big club. It is simply an innings matter here, and Sisco himself demonstrates that quality relievers can be found. That being said, I don't have a major problem with what the Royals are doing either, which is keeping him in the `pen. I wouldn't mind seeing him packaged at the deadline either, though I doubt that will happen.

8. John Buck was among the players acquired in the Carlos Beltran deal a few years back. He has shown decent pop, but overall has been a disappointment. Tell us a little about him, and the hopes you have that he will indeed become a good catcher.

Royals Review: He's a regular, and with some luck and good managing, he might slug .500 this season or next. He's also already 25 and likely is what he'll ever be. His defense has had periods of murkiness, but he's more or less league average. Average defense, low batting and on-base skills, homers in the teens, that's John Buck for the next two or three years. The problem is, he's always good for a .150/.170/.200 month now and then.

9. Speaking of the Beltran deal....two years later, how has it turned out. Good deal? Or another addition to Allard Baird's Hall Of Fame of shitty moves?

Royals Review: The Royals ended up getting three members of their current big-league team, Mike Wood, Mark Teahen and John Buck in exchange for a half-season of Carlos Beltran. For a team on its way to a 58-104 record, this haul was probably Baird's finest moment. Factor in the emergence of David DeJesus in centerfield as well as the money saved playing regulars like Buck and Teahen, and it gets even better. On the other hand, no team with Buck or Teahen as one of its five best players will never be a contender. You need elite players to win, but the Royals had no chance of resigning Beltran, so the point is mute.

10. Angel Berroa has been disappointing since stealing the AL Rookie of the Year Award from our own Rocco Baldelli a few years back, but rebounded a bit last year. What are your hopes for him, and how realistic are they?

Royals Review: Lets see, in 2004 he posted a .262/.308/.385 line, followed up by a .270/.305/.375 gem last season. He's generally considered a poor fielder and his base running often does more harm than good. At least last season he was finally moved off the top of the lineup, although for two years Tony Pena couldn't seem to figure out that a guy with a .305 OBP wasn't the best dude to have in front of Beltran. This is his age 28 season, so he might hit .295/.340/.400, which would cause the Royals to promptly sign him to a ten year extension. It is funny, as a product of the 2001 Johnny Damon trade with Oakland, Berroa's been ridiculed, then lauded, then ridiculed again. For awhile though, we though that Baird may have actually won the trade (which also involved your D-Rays of course).

11. The recent claiming off waivers of Tony Graffanino apparently means that the Esteban German era will be tardy in starting. What is your opinion of this move?

Royals Review: Beyond pointless. Its odd that an aging team, with a huge payroll that needs to win NOW would dump (through waivers) a $2 mil backup to a team that wants to get young, can't win for years and has no money. Totally nonsensical. Then again, the goal for this season isn't winning, or building for the future, its much more simple, avoiding embarrassment. German had a decent chance of hitting .200/.210/.250 in limited duty, whereas Graffy doesn't. So it's Graffy.

12. Mike Sweeney....one of the only star players the Royals have had in recent years who has actually stuck around, continues to rake, but wouldn't it be better for the team to trade him at this point and get a few prospects in return?

Royals Review: I see a parallel with the Huff situation in Tampa. At a certain point, the window's closed, the deal has lost value, and you still have a fairly good player that's gonna be hard to replace. Sweeney's expensive, but at this point it may make more sense to keep him around rather than trading him for cash and a B pitching prospect. Of course, it all depends on the individual deal. The interesting thing is, Sweeney is something of a lightening rod amongst Royal fans; you know, the old saw Bill James had about bad teams always turning on their worst player. He's seen by some as holier than thou, soft (because being injury-prone is always a moral choice) and overpaid. Still, its funny how we spent a decade bemoaning an inability to keep homegrown stars around (Dye, Damon, Beltran) and then the one guy who stays is repeatedly chided.

13. Mark Teahen, yet another acquisition in the Beltran deal, has been plugged in at the hot corner for the past two years without doing much, but started to perform a little better last year. Similar to the Buck question, what are his chances of becoming a solid, major league third baseman.

Royals Review: It seems like I spend my whole life talking about Mark Teahen. The bottom line is that he simply has to hit more (.246/.309/.376 in `05). By all accounts Mark is a delightful guy, a hard worker and a good teammate. If the world was about 99% different in every way, Mark and I would probably be friends. Still, he's 24 and its time to start hitting more. With Teahen, Buck and Berroa down at the bottom of the Royals lineup, the outs come fast and furious. Still, Teahen's cheap, he's part of the Beltran deal and people like him. He'll be given every chance to show something this season, but if Gordon keeps mashing, or even if he doesn't, windows might close for Mark quick.

14. David DeJesus is one of the only prospects that the Royals have plugged in recently who actually has performed well within a short period of time from his debut. Is he the next Beltran in center for the Royals, how good will this guy end up being?

Royals Review: It is hard not to see a young Johnny Damon. He's fast, but a little raw on the basepaths and in center. He already has the plate discipline, and he's in his age 26 season with a career .290/.361/.427 line in over 900 PAs. I think there is something to be said for the possibility that he's just a fast developer and may already be near the ceiling of his potential. Signed through 2010, he should be the face of the franchise for the next few years. This being the Royals however, there is always a potential that things get messed up.

15. There have been some crazy rumors in the past about Jonny Gomes, our star outfielder who absolutely mashed the ball last year, possibly being headed to Western Kansas. Have you heard these rumors, and if so......why would KC have any interest in Gomes in the position they are in?

Royals Review: With apologies to the new Rays Front Office, how much combined logic does there have to be behind a Rays-Royals trade rumor?

16. The Royals were relatively active in the free agent market this offseason, signing a few players to improve their 56 win squad like Scott Elarton, Mike Redman, Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Reggie Sanders. Some of them, I think, were simply signed to make life difficult for Royals writers in terms of spelling. Anyways, is the $$$ the Royals invested in these veterans really worth it to a team who, in all likelihood, is still going to finish in the cellar?

Royals Review: I guess it depends on what your goals are. If the goal is not being a laughing stock, having something to hold a press conference about, and giving Buddy Bell some old dudes to hang out with, then the moves were a success. To be fair, not all the moves are equal: Sanders, Elarton, Redman and Grudz are decent players, who should make the Royals marginally better. On the other hand, Minky and Joe Mays have looked awful, and I haven't even mentioned Paul Bako yet. There has been some discussion that the -moves are Dave Littlefield-esque veteran-players-to-be-traded-later moves. Considering a) the Littlefield picks were stronger players and that b) he still didn't get much for them its an odd idea (either for Baird himself, or for fans to dream about). Honestly, the barrage of moves probably were at least half the idea of the Glass family cadre, as their inept attempt at talent evaluation, as well as a PR ploy in hopes of getting tax monies in April. Mission accomplished.

17. Here's hoping you guys have your "Under Construction" moment like we did, where you are able to clean out Baird and David Glass, but in the meantime, what is it going to take to make this franchise successful, on and off the field?

Royals Review: We need the AL Central to return to 2001-4 levels, number one. Secondly, having the Yankees sign Billy Beane wouldn't hurt. It is only possible for there to be so many good teams, and probably the talent market can only support a handful of small-market teams that are also competitive, so sending Beane to NY would kill two birds with one stone. Beyond that, its vaguely possible that the team could be good offensively in the next few years, with DeJesus, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler etc. If that's the case, we better hope that the pitching prospects (most of whom are already with the team) are there in '08 to help the cause. If not, the upside is the Royals teams of the early 00s, who had Damon-Dye-Beltran-Sweeney-Randa, but still couldn't win.

Thank you for submitting to these questions, I really appreciate your help, and best of luck to the Royals this season, they are one of the three AL teams I hope do well, along with Cleveland, and, of course, the Rays.