The Royals finished April with a 12-15 record and ended the fifth month of the year with a 22-34 mark (now 23-34). Considering the month contained the team's epic losing streak, an overall record of 10-19 in May wasn't a total disaster, and could have been much worse.

Let's take a look at how the boys in blue did at the plate in May. First, the team totals:

101 runs is actually not last in the league, it's tied for 11th. The Angels also scored 101 (in one fewer game) and the Mariners and Indians were worse, scoring 99 and 98 runs respectively, as the new deadball era sweeps across the American League. Despite the advantage of the DH, scoring in the American League is lower than in the NL, which of course can 100% be attributed to PEDs testing. 100%. Everyone who used PEDs was a hitter in the AL. Moving on... The Royals only hit 12 homers in May, which is remarkable. Not surprisingly, no team in the AL was anywhere close to this number, as the league average was 24 homers.It isn't anything like a full consolation, but the Royals did rip 65 doubles in May, second-most in the American League. Weirdly, the Royals continue to not hit triples, despite having some decent triplers getting regular playing time. They hit just 2 in May. Then again, no one ever got poor betting against Joey Gathright's extra base hit totals.

Speaking of Gathright, now about those individual numbers, sorted by OPS:

This is how you have a bad month. For a guy who probably won't be in the Major Leagues in 2010, Tony Pena Jr. has generated a ton of discussion this month, but he isn't standing alone in the forest of horribleness. Considering defensive value and where they play, it's certain that Ross Gload (another Dayton pickup) was the worse player in May, and Alberto Callaspo wasn't far behind. You can say the same for Billy Butler, who slugged .302 with no value on defense.

Other than Miguel Olivo's studliness and a decent month from Jose Guillen (characteristically a lack of walks drags down his performance, even when he's hitting over .300) nobody else stepped into the void. Although Gordon (and Teahen) continued to get his walks and John Buck tossed in his annual random month of hitting .300, there isn't much good displayed here. (Expect a .210 average from Buck in June.)

Pitching numbers will be up tomorrow.

Last night was apparently one hell of a game to miss. I remember, while watching the Celtics-Pistons post-game, seeing the final score on the ESPN Bottomline and saying something to the effect of "that stinks." It looked like it had turned out to be a close slugfest, one that, given it went into extra innings, could have gone either way. It was only when "KC Greinke - 8.1 IP, 3 ER" scrolled across the bottom of the screen that I began to suspect that it had been a painful loss, and even then I really didn't know until I checked the box score this morning. ESPN, as everyone here knows, would prefer to show the Red Sox failing to hit Erik Bedard all night than show Twins-Royals highlights. However, I think that might be a good thing in this particular case. Anyhow, the "earned run" tag meant I had no idea exactly how much the Royals had been leading by going into the ninth. Of course, that Greinke was still in the game indicated that they had been leading, and so my first thought was that Soria had actually had a bit of a meltdown.

Of course, that's not the way it went. You all know as well as I know what happened in the ninth inning last night, with Ramon Ramirez getting singled out of the game and giving way to the now-thoroughly dejected Joel Peralta.

One thing that would not change this night, though, was the despair felt by Peralta -- not for himself, he said, but because he let his teammates down.

"I won't sleep tonight, for sure," he said.

Yes, that definitely sound like a pitcher who gave two home runs in the span of three betters to heavily contribute to what I have little doubt will be the Royals most memorable loss of the year. I should make it clear I'm not attempting to get everyone blaming manager Trey Hillman rather than Peralta by evoking pathos, as I find it hard to blame Hillman for Peralta not being able to get Craig Monroe out. Really, with Nunez now hurting, and with Soria having pitched two games in a row, the decision last night came down to Mahay, Peralta, Yabuta, or keeping Ramon Ramirez in the game. Ramirez wasn't pitching well, so it's easy to see why Hillman turned elsewhere. Yabuta has a 6.00 ERA with no good peripherals. Craig Monroe historically hits lefties better than righties, to the tune of more power and a better OBP. Ron Mahay is left-handed, so assuming Soria wasn't ready to go, Peralta was left as the best choice for a high leverage situation. He blew it, he knows, let's move on.

We've already discussed this game at length, anyway. I'm just pointing this out because I've been critical of Trey, and others here have been a lot more critical of our fearless leader, but I don't think he takes the fall for the ninth inning. You can, as loyal2sdad pointed out, make an argument that Hillman should have just pitched either Peralta or Ramirez through the whole inning. You can also wonder why Greinke was allowed to start the inning with such a high pitch count and a 5-run lead. But either way, it's speculation that really isn't an indictment of the moves that were really made. If we all want something to complain about in regard to Hillman, it's much more debatable whether Peralta should have remained in to pitch to Justin Morneau with Mahay on the roster. Or the Gload in the outfield thing.

But I didn't write this whole thing to bury Hillman anyway. I didn't write to praise him either, because this entire team is in a funk that you usually only see once a year. If you want the bare bones consolation, we will probably go the entire year without the Royals ever playing this badly for this long. Feel better? Yeah, me neither. Maybe I'll just shut up about last night and get to the stuff I really wanted to touch on.

Notes on the Red Sox-Royals Series

Thanks to the heroic intervention of the MLB Extra Innings package, very soon I'll have the opportunity to follow more KC games without having to enlist the highlight reels and gameday. However, the four game set between the Red Sox and the Royals allowed me for the first time this year to actually see more than one Royals game in a row. It was pretty cool despite the obviously disappointing results. And yes, they were disappointing. Those of you who have been on this blog for awhile are well aware of my "split loyalties," but I was really hoping that the series would be a split so both "my teams" could have their moments. Well, I suppose I don't feel that bad that the Red Sox kind of beat up the Royals now that the Royals are getting beat up by everyone, if that makes sense to anyone. Anyhow, I have other places to go in this article, so onto the stuff that I jotted down during the series:

1. The improvements that Alex Gordon has made over last year were evident through the entire series, during which he was one of the few Royals offensive players who distinguished themselves. He looked more patient, more comfortable, and more disciplined than when I got to see him play last year.
2. Gil Meche looked as if he was starting to get turned around, K'ing 9 over seven innings and taking the hard luck loss in the second game of the series. Say what you will about the opposing points of view in the field of pitch count general pitcher workload research, but I think that poor Meche was suffering from a 200-inning, high-pitch count hangover that seems to finally be clearing up. It's like that time where I drank Ice 101 during finals week and didn't begin to function until approximately 2 PM the next morning. My god, that stuff is evil. Thanks to my friend Buddy, who recommended taking more shots of it than were necessary.
3. Joakim Soria - great man, or greatest man? Even though Soria only appeared in one game...and stuggled with his control...in the rain, I could still see the awesome stuff that he has. I was sitting next to a rather skeptical Red Sox fan during his outing, who made fun of me for saying that Soria had great control because Joakim walked two people in the rain. I had a good chuckle when Soria escaped the jam and then Mike Timlin struggled with his control and walked one in the rain on his way to creating his own save situation in the ninth. Funny stuff.
4. Contrary to whenever I saw him in the "highlights" earlier in the year, Jose Guillen had his timing down and more closely resembled the decent power hitter he's been in the past. You know this, but the difference was clearly visible.
5. Brett Tomko is not a victim of bad luck when it comes to his hittablility. After seeing his stuff, I don't think he's got enough to keep his BABIP at league average. I just bring this up because, other than his H/9, he looks like he is underperforming his peripheral numbers. After seeing how mediocre his stuff is, I don't think he's playing by the "normal" .290-.300 BABIP rule.
6. Billy Butler is sitting too far back in his stance, and almost never seems to get his weight forward into his swings. I know I'm not a scout, but it's odd to see a man that muscular trying to fight off pitch after pitch. In any case, he's a data point against the pitching coach. He looked completely lost in the Sox-Royals series.
7. Ross Gload is done. He doesn't look capable of hitting major league pitching. His numbers are terrible, and he's older than you think.
8. Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez both looked impressive in their outings. It's hard to believe that Nunez has come full circle and become a very good reliever, but he has. Ramirez looks like a good find, as if you look at his line in 2006 he was quite good before getting hurt last year.

Continue reading this post »

With apologies to Hillman's we're planning on a 180 game season routine, the Royals have played 29.6% of the 2008 season and are now on pace to win 70 games.

Hillman, all early season basepath stupidity aside, has proven himself to be just another guy. Just another fifty-something strangely dressed in a player's uniform managing like the rest of his peers. Rany wrote a few weeks ago that one of the major disappointments regarding Trey was this very bland conformity. The Royals went all the way to Japan to hire the next Phil Garner, Tom Trebelhorn, Buddy Bell or Sam Perlozzo. And that's ok, I suppose, because apparently it's unavoidable, here in the sport without ideas.

Still, it would be nice if we could see some other tactical or managerial move beyond finding creative ways to get Joey Gathright and Tony Pena Jr. as many plate appearances as possible.

No, it's not a weekly "forum" hosted by Bob Costas dedicated to having his friends come on and discuss issues with only the insight and intelligence that a guy who stands in front of a camera can deliver. No, not that at all.

It's Costa Now!

What this lineup needs is Costa. Costa now.

OK, that may be a bit of an overstatement. But I do think that it's time to give Costa an extended bit of playing time at the Major League level.

For whatever reason, a true Free Costa campaign has never really caught on on this site. He's had his supporters over the years, but no one has ever been too excited about his upside, or so it seems. Moreover, he's actually seen a fair amount of action with the Royals, albeit in weird chunks and in strange situations. Basically, this has been the only thing that I'd ever thought about him: the Royals have found a number of lineup slots and positions to play him, while never really committing to anything much. Costa for all the world has looked like a tweener: he can't play center and he can't hit enough to hold a corner slot. End of story.

I'm not sure that's necessarily true anymore. Costa is hitting .313/.357/.565 this season in Omaha, and has already hit seven home runs. Costa has always been a .300 hitter in the minors, but the knock against him has always been a lack of power. Well, he may have improved in that regard, and a modest power spike in the mid to late twenties is actually fairly standard. Furthermore, this is the Royals we're talking about, and at a certain point Costa's status vis-a-vis traditional conceptions of how to build a lineup is irrelevant. The question is, essentially, is he better use of a roster spot than Joey Gathright. Only it's not. Gathright is out of options and must clear waivers to hit the minors. It's hard to see Moore jettisoning Gathright (or running the risk of it) for a few weeks of Costa. So who has options remaining? Basically no position players other than Butler and Gordon. I believe Peralta might , but I am not positive. Ditto for Yabuta.

No, as odd as it sounds, barring any trades or dramatic changes of course, the only player that Costa can easily replace on the Big League roster is Billy Butler. Sending Butler to Omaha so that Costa can snag Joey Gathright's playing time isn't a terrifically obvious move, but I think it has some merit.

- Costa can outhit Gathright. Gathright is a career .265/.328/.312 hitting in the Major Leagues. While is lack of home run power is obvious, it's startling how few doubles Gathright produces, especially considering his speed.  Last year, Gathright had 70 hits and 62 of them were singles.  As a Royal, Gathright has cranked out 15 doubles, four triples and one home run in 586 trips to the plate. On a different team, Gathright's dogged efforts to get on base (he did post a .371 OBP last year) might be more valuable, but on the Royals it just means he can advance to third base on a Mark Teahen single and be stranded when Jose Guillen strikes out. The thing is, the knock on Costa has always been that he's basically a singles hitter, and he very well might be. Joey Gathright is still a bigger singles hitter, one of the most singles-based hitters in the universe, actually. Again, Costa is showing some pop this season in Omaha, and it wouldn't be unheard of for a guy to flash a little more power than previously shown when he turns 26. Costa doesn't have to slug .550 in the Majors to be an upgrade over Gathright. He doesn't have to slug .500. If Costa can slug .450 in the majors this year, maybe even just .400, he'll probably do enough to off-set what even the best case scenario for Joey Gathright is. Even if all of that isn't true, and Gathright's likely to be a better overall player, the Royals know what they have in Gathright at this point (I hope) but regarding Costa, they don't. They need to find out.

- Billy Butler needs a sabbatical. There is perhaps a deep irony in calling up Costa to chase after a 100 points of slugging but at the cost of demoting Billy Butler, as I well understand. However, at the moment the matter may be mute because Butler is slugging .362. That number is even more remarkable when you consider that Billy is actually hitting .277. As they did with Alex Gordon last season, the Royals have shown remarkable patience with Butler, which in many ways is very admirable, even courageous in the limited way that these matters can truly be courageous. Considering that Butler has no baserunning value and limits Hillman's options afield, it goes without saying that he's not pushing the offense much by hitting an empty .277.  As is often said, the American League is not an instructional league, and I think that there is sufficient evidence that Butler could still use some lower-stress instruction in many aspects of the game. While I am generally not in favor of arb-clock gaming, it must also be said that it may be in the team's financial best interest to have Butler work on things in Omaha. Gordon and Butler are similar, but they are not the same: Butler is much younger and lacks much of Gordon's overall polish. Even though Gordon struggled last season, a rational case can be made that it was good for him to experience that, and hopefully learn from it, at the highest level. It isn't obvious that Butler is at that point.

-Increased Strategical Flexibility. With Costa replacing Butler, Hillman gains another chess piece for the late game pinch-hitting that he seems to be in favor of. The Royals have a number of extremely slow players (Buck, Olivo, Grudz, Gload) as well as a certain shortstop who essentially should never bat more than 3 times a game if you can avoid it. With Costa around, Hillman should feel more comfortable using German and Gathright more optimally and earlier in the game. Or, he can keep German in his back pocket, and feel safer using Callaspo earlier. Costa might also be useful in spelling Guillen and Teahen, while allowing Hillman to feel comfortable that he still has an infield reserve available in German. Butler creates problems, Costa creates solutions. (Ok, that's unbelievably cheesy, but I couldn't resist.)

The best Shane Costa has ever performed at the Major League level came at the opening of the 2006 season, when he was a nearly-regular player for the first 21 games of the campaign. Over that stretch, Costa hit .317/.333/.533, in 61 PAs. A little hacktastic, sure, but that issue is almost a sunk cost with this team at this point. Since then, despite appearing a lot, he's never really got extended playing time, which has likely driven his numbers down. Maybe, maybe not. Yes, unlike, say, Justin Huber, Costa has actually been given a solid chunk of playing time, over 400 PAs in fact, but on the whole it's been haphazard, with lots of pinch-hitting and spot starts. Plus, he's older now, and, the wonderful thing about being in your twenties is that it's a rare moment in your life when being older actually makes you better at stuff.

In both the short and long term, the Royals would be better served by replacing Billy Butler with Shane Costa on the roster. Butler will, without any doubt in my mind, have the better career in baseball. Actually, I'd be willing to be a large sum that he'll be better next year. He might even be better by August. But, with all facets of the game considered equally, he's not not better now. This season isn't about winning, it's about positioning the team to win next year (right? we don't have to wait until 2010, do we?). Billy Butler is still just 22 years old and remains one of the youngest players in baseball. His future is bright. However, he has no position and appears lost on the bases and he isn't hitting. The Royals' plan for him seems to be one of resignation: he is what he is and he isn't going to get better, so let's just guarantee that he becomes a Super Two and accept him for what he is. If that's the case, then the half-hearted efforts to get him starts at first base seem especially ill-conceived. Nothing is being accomplished by the status quo, and even less so will be forwarded once inter-league play begins.

What the Royals need now, is Costa, sweet Costa.

---------

Appendix:

- Royals Authority on Costa in 2007 and then in 2008, the latter link, when they "broke up" with Costa.

I was an awesome singles hitter in little league, as practically everyone was. You see, back then all you had to do to get a hit on the score was hit the ball not directly at a fielder and you had about a ninety percent chance of it getting through or beating the lollipop throw. Some kids have already learned how to drive the ball a bit in little league, but barely anyone knows how to field. There was about one pitcher in our league out of six that we faced that could get through a game without walking more than he struck out. It was definitely a hitter's league, and my last year on the little league field I hit .536. I couldn't tell you what my OBP was, but just to brag I'm going to write that it had to be at least .650. Slugging average? Not so much, but I was good.

A funny thing happens to you, though, when your average gets above .500. I realized, twelve years old at the time, that I could go 2-for-4 and my average would go down. 2-for-4 is a pretty gosh darn good day's work, but it was actually below average for me on the season (and god knows how many other players). It struck me as an odd pecularity at the time and, obviously, the memory has stuck with me. For those interested, my Indians defeated the White Sox for the championship that year, sweeping a best two-of-three series from those baseball villains that included my neighbor down the street who had sold out after coming up in the minors with me.

In the majors, you don't have many people hitting .500 these days, so 2-for-4's no longer a good example. You do, however, have players every year who hit .380 for the first month and then see their average decline even when they get a hit in every three at-bats. It's an unwinnable game that way, in that you'll come back to earth even if you hit reasonably well. The flip side of this is the player who starts out his season badly, to the point where a 1-for-4 night raises his pathetic batting average. If we're talking about a player who's sub-.200, one measly bingle in five at-bats can cause a rise.

Then, there's Jason LaRue. Jason could go 1-for-6 in the next game he plays, and his batting average would go up. That's how bad he's been at the plate this season. I know I've brought this up before, but he's managed to hurt the team well above and beyond the impact you can expect from a back-up catcher. LaRue has been--I love typing this--0-for-August. He's 0-for-19 since the month started. At least he avoided not getting on base all month, as he managed a walk against the White Sox on the 22nd. Yippee. Saying "at least he had a walk this month" is like saying "at least that ant is still alive" after an unfortunate insect has been torn in half by a particularly sadistic eight-year-old. It's not much consolation to the ant. Or the Royals.

For those wondering where all of this is going (other than to crow about my little league abilities) NYRoyal's diary below prompted me too examine just how badly of the Royals are compared to the theoretical "league average hitter" team. As all of you know, widely-felt preseason expectation were that this team was going to be pretty good offensively and bad at pitching. That hasn't even come close to being true, as heroes like Gil Meche, Joakim Soria, and Brian Bannister have saved the pitching staff from nigh-certain embarrassment. Meanwhile, the Royals--LaRue being the most extreme example--have flailed at the plate quite a bit this year despite notable improvements over the course by guys like Alex Gordon, Mark Grudzielanek, Billy Butler, and (shrug) Emil Brown. So how do the Royals measure up to the league averages by position?

Catcher LA: .252/.315/.391

John Buck - .226/.316/.459

Jason LaRue - .141/.230/.275

Buddy Bell's self-fulfilled prophecy has, uh, come true. Neither catcher is hitting well right now, but it still should be painfully obvious that Buck has waaaaaaaay more value than LaRue. In fact, even though he's hitting .228, Buck's OBP is one tick above average for AL catchers and his slugging percentage is a nifty 68 points higher. In other words, Buck's secondary skills (power, higher walk rate) are carrying him to the point where he's still above average. Was anyone else surprised to see how low the league average was for American League catchers?

Jason LaRue is terrible at hitting a baseball. No two ways above it.

First Base LA: .270/.348/.446

Ross Gload - .301/.321/.462

Ryan Shealy - .221/.286/.308

Anyone else long for the days where Ryan Shealy was going to be a slugging presence in the middle of the line-up for the Royals? Shealy OPSed nearly 800 in his first go-round with the Royals in 2006, but between injuries and general suckiness, he proved totally incapable of follow his 2006 act. It really was a bit uncanny how bad he was. Get well soon, Ryan, your MLB career depends on it.

For you Ross Gload fans out there, this is me acknowledging that Gload has exploded all the way up to the vicinity of the DH-diluted average line for an AL first basemen (though the loss in OBP hurts more than the gain in power). If he were a guy who played a position up the middle of the diamond, I'd like him. He's not, and the end result is he's logged a lot of playing time at first that hasn't turned out as bad as I would have expected. He's absitively posolutely not the future at first for the Royals, but keeping him around to sub at the corners is fine.

Second Base LA: .282/.339/.413

Mark Grudzielanek - .304/.346/.439

Esteban German - .265/.357/.369

Another fine season for Grudzielanek, as he ends up being a pretty nifty player at second when you factor in his (generally accepted) above average defense. He's outstripped the LA second basemen on all three hitting line fronts as his batting average his risen steadily after a slow start. The lone problem with Grudzielanek is that he has to keep hitting around three hundred to keep this up, and players with his skillset--low walk totals, no speed--can disappear off the map when they get old. No disrespect meant to Mark, of course. He's an oldie, and, for now, he's a goody.

German's batting average is running a little low for him, and so he really hasn't been as good as Grudzielanek to this point in the year. If he gets back up around .280, the Grudzielanek-German celebrity deathmatch needs to be arranged to settle this matter once and for all. In any case, German's been a useful reserve again this year, with a very good walk rate that suggests he could hold down a starting job at second if someone gives him a shot.

Shortstop LA: .270/.323/.394

Tony Pena Jr. - .262/.282/.345

Pena's got just nine walks all year long, which is impatience to the point where it's very very hard for any other skill to compensate for it. Pena's defense has got good, not great, reviews from the jumble of metrics and observers that one is forced to go by when getting into a serious defense evaluation discussion. He's contributed twenty doubles on the year as well, and he probably takes his vitamins and loves his mom. He's still not even close to being a league average shortstop with the bat. There are plenty of things that you can do to compensate for a .282 OBP. Examples include slugging .700, rescuing handicapped orphans from evil villains every morning, firing Joe Morgan from ESPN, feeding an entire third world country, and qualifying for sainthood. Actually the fact of the matter is that even if Pena takes the Mother Teresa life path, it would be hard for me to recommend him to an actual baseball team. He's too old to expect much in the way of improvement. Please pass the Moose Tacos.

Third Base LA: .263/.332/.425

Alex Gordon - .244/.319/.401

Another one where I expected the league average line to be higher, which just goes to show that there are some pretty crappy third basemen lying around. Gordon is not anywhere near as crappy as early in the season, and has broken the .400 mark for his slugging percentage. Amazingly, after hitting about .043 over the first eight months of the season, Gordon is twenty BA points from being almost dead-on league average.

Needless to say, we all expect Alex to be capable of greater things, but it's encouraging that he's managed to do better here in the second half. If there's anything un-obvious that bothers me here, it's that his OBP is hiked up because of HBPs. I asked Alex if he thought that was a repeatable skill, and all he did was smirk knowingly. Here's hoping he's the next Craig Biggio in that regard, because every little bit helps.

AL Left Field LA: .273/.333/.423

Joey Gathright - .347/.404/.388

Needless to say, there's more to this than meets the eye. Gathright, gosh love him for his positive contributions to KC this year, is OPSing thirty-six points above league average. If I was absolutely positive he could replicate his current line over a full season, I'd already have penciled him in as a starter for 2008 with "+" next to his name. He's a speedster who isn't bad in the outfield, and is virtually incapable of hitting for power (.41 IsoP[!]). In other words, he's kind of like good-year Scott Podsednik right now.

Joey's career line, even with this year's 160 PAs, is .269/.335/.320. That's not acceptable from a center fielder, much less a corner outfielder. How much you value Gathright depends on the weight you place on his at-bats this season as compared to the way he's hit in the majors in the past. Given this, it should be pretty unsurprising that I can't take him seriously as a good starting solution for next year. No matter how much you think 2007 represents an improvement for Gathright as opposed to a fluky 160 PAs, you are not going to convince me that he's going to hit .347 every year. Albert Pujols doesn't hit .347 every year. No one does. So, how high do you expect his average to stay once he comes back to earth? That's the question you need to ask if you want to project Gathright's value for next year. If Joey's "true ability" is hitting .305, for example, and you give him credit for his current level of power and patience, he'd hit around .305/.365/.355. Vintage Podzilla, and nowhere near good enough to start in left field and be a plus, but arguably good enough for center. If his true ability is around .285 (sixteen points higher than his career average)...well...it doesn't matter where he plays.

Center Field LA: .270/.333/.424

David DeJesus - .277/.356/.392

Super Joey - .347/.404/.388

NHZ Optimism Joey - .305/.365/.355

NHZ Pessisism Joey - .285/.345/.335

Career Line Joey - .269/.335/.320

Let the argument begin. DeJesus, with his solid hitting, patience approach, and low salary is both one of the Royals most reliable assets and at the same time one of their best trading chips. He doesn't have the "no power" rep that Joey does, and he's not paid much, so it's reasonable to assume that he could bring a pretty good return. The thing is, what with him already signed at below market prices and being a plus with the bat (if definitely not a star), trading him what with the Royals' lack of good bats seems loony when looked at from another angle.

DeJesus is probably a little above league average because twenty-odd points of OBP are worth more than the equivalent SLG points. DeJesus does have some extra base power, with fourty XBH from the lead-off position this year. His past history woudl suggest his BA is a little low right now, but not too low compared to what you expect. It appears that "this" is what he is, as preseason breakout predictions really haven't come true, but he's still a useful player at a key defensive position who you can expect to be at least average with the bat, maybe a little more. To facilitate the whole DeJesus-Gathright match-up, I include the four horsemen of Joey: Super, Optimist NHZ, Pessimist NHZ, and Career Line. Super looks like an improvement on DDJ for sure. Optimist is acceptable but nothing that DDJ can't do better. Pessimist is bad. Career line is worse. I report, you decide. Who's the better option in center next year if DDJ maintains his previous levels of performance?

Right Field LA: .287/.358/.464

Emil Brown - .245/.296/.346

Mark Teahen - .284/.351/.407

Shane "The Pain" Costa - .200/.219/.243

A recent topic on RR was that Emil and his Noodle Bat might be an illusion brought on by lack of playing time, and that Emil might be league average again if he had been allowed to play through his slump the whole way. Even so, even if you up all Brown's percentages by fourty points, his power is down this year and "league average, old, and with bad defense" is not exactly a performance that screams "he's a building block" anyway.

Mark Teahen I somehow forgot about when I initially put this article together, which must have had something to do with him being on the DL. Those familar with Mark's performance this season and his off-season shoulder surgery might have actually expected him to go the disabled left earlier as Teahen's power has been sapped compared to last year when he slugged .517. For now, it is kind of for us to know what to expect from Teahen in 2008, as I think shoulder surgery has both limited his power and upped his k-rate. While I would hesitate to predict Teahen slugging .517 next year, I think he can get back to league average for a RF--820 OPS--with room for improvement. For now, Mark's plate discipline has remained intact, which is encouraging, but he missed the LA slugging line by sixty points. We all like Teahen a lot, I think, but I really hope I'm right about a bounceback next season because a .407 SLG won't help much in a corner spot.

Shane Costa is included her so those so inclined can tell nasty jokes about him behind his back. Costa's performance this year is like a terrible sandwich from McDonald's: the next time around he'll be better, but that doesn't mean there should be a next time around for the McChicken...or for Shane.

Designated Hitter LA: .263/.350/.433

Billy Ray Butler - .295/.352/.436

He'a already a league average DH at age 21, which is yet another way of saying that Billy Ray is going to be a good one. With muscular maturation and experience will come the power he displayed in the minors, and I think I speak for us all when I say that thank god he hasn't been Huberized. Butler should be a very good hitter for a very long time. The only question now is if he can play first well enough to start there, or if he's a career DH. It's not the worst thing in the world to be a career DH.

In Conclusion, We Stink

Naturally, it's not as cut and dried as that. However, if you go by this year's batting lines, Grudzielanek, Gathright, and Butler are the three definite above averages for the Royals. If you read this closely, you know what I think about the chances of Gathright and Grudzielanek repeating their 2007 production next year. DeJesus is probably a little better than league average. Buck is defintely better than average thanks to all his dingers, but LaRue has ruined everything when it comes to catcher (maybe a slight exagerration).

In the end, we're left with a team that needs a healthy dose of power and patience in the line-up next year. For those of you who haven't already done so, I recommend you visit the FA diary by NYRoyal that's on the main page to view which guys you think could fit the bill. By my count, we need a 1B/DH, a corner outfielder (maybe two) who can hit the ball over the fence (preferably one without a BB gun), and a shortstop. Other than that, we're not bad off in the line-up if the young players like Gordon and Butler improve.

Spreadsheet Baseball returns next week but probably not at its regular time due to my return to my institute of higher learning. Sorry for my recent absence; I always get sick when falls sets in and the temperature changes, blah. For this week's edition of SB, comments/questions are welcome/encouraged.

As Adam Sandler once sang, "someone kill me please". Your humble blogger does his best to write about the Royals twice a day for the entire 162 game season; which isn't easy considering the Royals are the worst team in baseball and on many nights aren't even half-way interesting. Most of the time Royals Review isn't very good and is often repetitive (or is it the Royals that are?). Still, we've had some moments around here, but I doubt I'll ever get "the call" from any major news source/site, or even from someone out in Scott City, KS for that matter.

Meanwhile, Jenn Sterger now writes for Sports Illustrated's dot.com site. You may remember the stir Sterger caused last fall, rising to internet celebrity status after a) appearing on the camera during an FSU football game, followed by Brent Musberger quipping something to the effect of "many red-blooded American men just applied to Florida State", this subsequently led to b) the Deadspin linkage to her facebook page, which included numerous pictures of her and her friends. Pictures like this:

Obviously, this is someone who needs a job in journalism. This is someone who needs a regular column. I'm frankly surprised SI snatched her up before Atlantic Monthly or The New Yorker or The New Republic did. To say nothing of ESPN.com or FOXSPORTS.com.

The saddest thing of all is (well, beyond the fact that I care) that she's probably not even "writing" these responses in any sustained sense, as they're likely ghost written from telephone or email correspondences by some intern at SI.com. Hey, if thats the way it rolls for Supreme Court justices, do you really doubt it for Sterger? Then again, do exchanges such as these really need to be faked?:

My girlfriend is pretty hot, but the other day a friend of mine who makes less money than me and is not much to look at showed up with a babe totally hotter than mine. Is it time for an upgrade, or am I just being immature? -- Mike, Seattle

It never ceases to amaze me how guys use women and money as a means of validating their existence and their place in society to one another. Sheesh. Sometimes men remind me of dogs -- they feel the need to constantly mark their territory to show dominance over one another. (I guess women are fortunate that men don't do it the same way.) Honestly, did you ever think that maybe there is more to women than their looks? Sure, your friend's date could have been hotter than yours, but was said girl the least bit intelligent, or was she strictly a piece of arm candy to elevate his status among the fellas in the group? Your girl may not be as hot, but there had to be something that attracted you to her in the first place, like intelligence, sense of humor, personality? So consider yourself the lucky one, because at least your date can form complete sentences and not spend the entire night contemplating the difference between chicken and fish.

Then again, God could simply think he did you a good enough favor giving you the better job, so the less hot girl is simply a trade-off. You can't have it all, my friend.

Right. Thank God SI is giving this discussion column space.

In other news, the Joey Gathright Era began with a bang last night, as All-Star Candidate Mark Teahen blasted a game-winning two run homer in the bottom of the 8th to propel the Royals to victory. Teahen redeemed himself after an earlier night of miscues in the field and on the basepaths.

To honor Teahen, I shall post this picture of him homering last season:

The beloved Gathright (sounds like the villian in a Jane Austen or P.G. Woodhouse novel) managed two singles, including one of the bunt-variety. This prompted numerous mentions of the horrifying effect his speed has on all pitchers, infielders and small children. Probably in our lifetime 100 pitchers will commit suicide or go insane due to the emotional stress caused by the mere existence of Gathright. Most importantly, after beginning the day at .201, his two singles raised his average to .210, meaning the Royals are spared of having a sub .200 hitter in the lineup for at least three more days.

Most importantly, the Royals insured themselves of a series victory, and go for the rare Sweep! tonight at the K. With the win, Buddy Bell raised his career managerial record to 409-579, and raised the Royal winning percentage this season to a salty .300.

Well done Buddisimo, we shall honor you with a career retrospective in two weeks when you manage your 1,000th game. In your long and distinguished career, you have earned every one of those games in the manager's seat, and every single penny you've been paid. Those lifers managing away in the Minor Leagues, all those guys who never got a break, were never given a shot, never even given a chance. You prove every day that you've earned it and they haven't. You are an example of the supreme justice and fairness bestowed upon life by our benevolent Creator.

And sincerest congrats to Buddy on another 100% correct job on the lineup card last night! He's got a streak going!!

Buddy Bell: Managing::Jenn Sterger:Writing

Jenn thinks:"My next column will reexamine Voros McCracken's controversial DIPS Study -- Defense Independent Pitching Statistics -- using a different regression formula and additional data concerning park factors. The second-half of the column will ponder: who is the hottest Royal?"

... As thoughts of Buddy asking DeJesus and Grudz to bunt threatens to send me over the edge.

So less than a year after he pointlessly debuted with the Royals, J.P. Howell was traded to Tampa Bay for Joey Gathright and infield prospect Fernando Cortez. Nothing like tearing down the Allard Baird era bit by bit.

Howell always seemed like a low-upside, low-downside guy to me, someone in the mold of Mike Wood on a good day. As the Royals got in the habit of doing, they rushed him to the Majors, having him make his first start against the Diamondbacks only a year after being drafted and becoming one of the first players from the 2004 Draft to appear in the Bigs.

Of course, the Royals took that low-downside that Howell seemed to possess coming out of Texas and pushed it down further than anyone imagined; culminating in a career 6.19 ERA. Still, Howell is still just 23, hardly cooked as a pitcher, much less as a pitching prospect. But then again, what would a tools-hound from the Braves want with a college pitcher? Better to bet on the 5% chance that Joey Gathright turns into Gary Pettis or Tom Goodwin, themselves pretty limited players. Right? If we can get some random infielder (Cortez) thrown in, all the better.

Still, its a pretty marginal trade all in all. But Howell nonetheless has a better chance of being an All-Star level player someday than Gathright, who's already 25.

On the positive side, with a somewhat fly-ball heavy staff, the Royals might do well to employ Gathright instead of Emil on some nights. Sure, the lineup will still suffer, but at least we might, just might have some decent outfield defense, and the Royals shouldn't be turning down opportunities to be decent at anything.

This seems to be Moore's idea:

"Sometimes the best way for us to improve our pitching is to improve our defense and Joey Gathright speaks to that element of what we're trying to do here with speed and defense and pitching," Moore said.

By the way, are guys like Moore genetically required to say "pitching and defense" together all the time? Is it like "cookies and cream" or "ham and cheese", just something that you can't associate without completing the phrase.

Still, I shudder at his praise of speed and athleticism. Can a 500 out season from Joey be far behind??

The real question is how this effects Kerry Robinson's status, and until I know the answer, I'll continue to lose sleep.

The good news in Royalland is that our boys grabbed win #20 last night and wouldn't let go, staging an epic comeback against the Pirates. Down 5-1, the Royals outscored the Pirates 9-1 to end the game, cruising to a 10-6 win that changed the lives of all who witnessed it. And on Jeremy Affeldt Shirt Day for good measure.

Sure Redman was "shaky" at best, but he labored through 5 innings, holding down the Pirates after their initial outburst. The best pitching of the game was done by Joel Peralta however, blanking the Pirates for two innings, and seriously damaging their chances at a comeback. Of course, Buddy Bell's quest to use Elemer Dessens everyday continues, as Dessens made his 30th appearance of the season, inching him closer to his career high, a 50 game season in 2004 with Arizona and LA. Congrats on another great game Elmer!

Futility Update- Through 69 Games:

1962 Mets: 19-50
2003 Tigers: 17-52

2006 Royals: 20-49

All hail the motivational powers of Dayton Moore and Buddy Bell!!!