Last week, we took a look back at the changes Dayton Moore has made to the big league roster since taking over during the 2006 season, specifically the position players. Part II examines the pitching staff, which has been subject to a much more radical transformation.

Dayton Moore inherited a bad team in 2006. The Royals would only win 62 games, which was actually their highest win total in three season. The '06 Royals couldn't hit, were bad defensively and were terrible on the mound. Although Moore's earliest moves were aimed at upgrading the offense (Gathright, amazingly, and Shealy) it quickly became apparent that his top priority was building a pitching staff. And for good reason, for while the offense was bad (12th in the AL in runs scored), the '06 pitching staff was legitimately worthy of the label "historically bad".

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Thaaaaaaaaa Yankees win.

Helluva game, and a revenge contest for Johnny Damon, who went 6-6 (although in effect 5-6, as he was gunned down trying to stretch a single into a double).

Lots to discuss, but maybe not much to say?

• Huge day by Guillen. Two homers, two guys thrown out on the bases and a single to boot.
  
• Another long day for the bullpen (after a rough May).
• A tough outing for Banny (even though it was a day game).
• More flukey excellence for Aviles, who I now believe leads the team in extra base hits.
• Royals drew two walks in a 12-11 marathon. I believe this ties a season high in walks drawn. (kidding)
• Your Tomko ERA update: 6.34
• Your Ramirez ERA update: 3.49.

The Royals went 10-19 in May, thanks in large part to an offense that was among the worst in the American League. The pitching staff, after a flaming hot start however, was not blameless either, as Royal hurlers have struggled for well over a month now. While overall the team's pitching numbers have been trending downward for a long time, the Royals nevertheless posted a slightly better monthly ERA in May (4.41) than they did in April (4.78).

Before looking at the May splits, it's worthwhile to take a look at the starter/bullpen breakdowns for the entire season.

There's a lot to digest there, and I didn't even include K/9 or HR data, for the sake of clarity. First, it looks like the starters are getting killed by BAA (bad defense?) because their control of the strikezone is surprisingly good, second-best in the AL in fact, behind only Oakland. The bullpen's K/BB number is also good, although only fourth best in the league, but they've also allowed fewer hits, contributing to a better ERA. Second, I'm stunned to see that the best Royal bullpen in decades has already fallen behind league average, a shocking development that does not reflect well on Trey Hillman's usage patterns, considering the number of good options he has to work with. Bullpen management is perhaps the area in which the manager has the most impact on a team's performance, and to this point, it would be hard to say that Hillman has done well there. In Hillman's defense (somewhat), the bullpen has been hit hard by the longball (18 allowed, fourth most in the league). Overall, the Royals rank 6th in strikeouts, rarefied air for a franchise that has spent most of the decade finishing somewhere between 12th and 14th, year after year.

Before we head-off to the land of individual performance (great wines there, by the way, but the roads are terrible) let's take a look at the staff numbers month by month:

Again, since the beginning of April was so superb, I don't think anyone would guess that actually, the pitching improved across the board in May. One final note on the overall pitching numbers: the Royals have only allowed 10 unearned runs, which is one of the lowest totals in the AL. This either means the Royals have been lucky in how they've timed their errors or that the staff has actually been a tick better than some AL staffs who have hidden lots of bad pitching behind "unearned" runs. The Twins for instance, have allowed over 30 invisible runs, at least in terms of ERA.

Here are the May numbers for the starters, sorted by innings pitched:

Gil Meche put in a very quiet, effective May, truly anchoring the staff, but his gains were offset by meltdowns by Bannister (although his nice Sunday start is obviously not in these numbers) and Tomko. Hochevar and Greinke were so-so, although I'm not quite sure how Greinke allowed so many runs, in spite of a lowish WHIP and decent strikeout numbers. Also, take a look at Banny's numbers: he's been striking out more guys than the mythology around him (and his detractors) would suggest. It's not as if he's 2004 Jimmy Gobble or anything.

And about that guy Gobble, here are the May reliever numbers, sorted again by IP:

Wow, four homers allowed by Peralta, eh!?!? Was anybody expecting to see Ramirez's May ERA that high? Like a few staff pitchers, his overall ERA still looks low, because he logged all those 0.00 ERA innings to start the season. It's fairly clear that Ramirez torpedoed the pen this month, and the sooner Hillman realizes the league may be catching up to him, the better. Likewise, did anyone notice that Yabuta had a decent month? Or that Nunez, whom I sorta thought was fading -- posted a 0.84 ERA in May?

Baseball Prospectus keeps a stat called Leverage, which keeps track of how important the situations a reliever's usage have occurred in. Guess which reliever has the highest leverage score in Hillman's pen? Brett Tomko, of course. As for more used relievers, the leverage rankings go like this: Nunez, Soria, Ramirez, Mahay, Gobble, Nomo, Peralta, Yabuta and Musser. Ideally, at the end of the season, we'll see Soria #1 (not third) and possibly Mahay higher in the chain.  For what it's worth, according to BP's numbers Yabuta, Gobble, Tomko and Peralta have all been below average relievers, and Tomko & Peralta have also been below replacement level. Oh, and Nomo, of course, but he's gone.

Lastly, a word about defense. BP's defensive efficiency stat rates the Royals as the 10th best defense in the American League, with a D-Eff of 0.699 , i.e., 69.9% of the balls in play have been turned into outs by the defense. The Rays lead the league at 72%. The Mariners are last at 68.2%. (Again, the closeness of these numbers should tell you something about the essential realities of the game: 30% of balls in play become hits, give or take a percent.) According to the numbers at the Hardball Times, the Royals have the second-worst defense in baseball however, just ahead of the Mariners.

After another scoreless ninth, there's no reason not to resume the Soria discussion from last night.-RR

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Seriously.

In twelve thirteen innings pitched this season, Joakim has allowed three hits, walked one, and struck out fifteen. He has not allowed a run. As I listened to the 9th in my truck tonight, I was struck with a bittersweet realization: what Soria is doing, literally, cannot be topped and won't last forever. What we're seeing is an extremely rare level of brilliance. I hope we enjoy it as long as it lasts.

He should be getting five times the media attention and blog & fan devotion that Banny has received, not the other way around.

Call me weird, but a guy who is just totally dominant is always going to be more compelling to me than a guy who gives a good quote.

The Royals finally showed some offensive life in the sixth, taking a 2-0 lead and forcing Rogers out of the game.

Through six plus, Brian Bannister has been the Banny we all expected: throwing strikes, somehow avoiding hits, being efficient. He's also struck out four, which isn't awesome, but isn't half bad either. It's not like he's had zero Ks today. 

We go to the eighth.

The most anticipated Royals season since 2004 begins, weather permitting, tomorrow afternoon in Detroit. The odd thing is, while almost everyone is excited about 2008, no one seems too hopeful that the Royals can actually compete, just yet. It's an odd dynamic that speaks to some long-term faith in Dayton Moore and the young players on the roster, as well as the extremely low expectations of a beaten down fanbase. This tenuously balanced bit of patient optimism could make the 2008 campaign something like a leisurely pleasure cruise, with random individual performances and patches of good play appearing like spots of scenery -- oh, look, there's a great start by Greinke, oh neat, we swept the Twins this weekend -- or it might evaporate quickly, as the on-field product pales in comparison to the way it appeared in the ballfields of the mind this off-season.

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