No, it's not a weekly "forum" hosted by Bob Costas dedicated to having his friends come on and discuss issues with only the insight and intelligence that a guy who stands in front of a camera can deliver. No, not that at all.

It's Costa Now!

What this lineup needs is Costa. Costa now.

OK, that may be a bit of an overstatement. But I do think that it's time to give Costa an extended bit of playing time at the Major League level.

For whatever reason, a true Free Costa campaign has never really caught on on this site. He's had his supporters over the years, but no one has ever been too excited about his upside, or so it seems. Moreover, he's actually seen a fair amount of action with the Royals, albeit in weird chunks and in strange situations. Basically, this has been the only thing that I'd ever thought about him: the Royals have found a number of lineup slots and positions to play him, while never really committing to anything much. Costa for all the world has looked like a tweener: he can't play center and he can't hit enough to hold a corner slot. End of story.

I'm not sure that's necessarily true anymore. Costa is hitting .313/.357/.565 this season in Omaha, and has already hit seven home runs. Costa has always been a .300 hitter in the minors, but the knock against him has always been a lack of power. Well, he may have improved in that regard, and a modest power spike in the mid to late twenties is actually fairly standard. Furthermore, this is the Royals we're talking about, and at a certain point Costa's status vis-a-vis traditional conceptions of how to build a lineup is irrelevant. The question is, essentially, is he better use of a roster spot than Joey Gathright. Only it's not. Gathright is out of options and must clear waivers to hit the minors. It's hard to see Moore jettisoning Gathright (or running the risk of it) for a few weeks of Costa. So who has options remaining? Basically no position players other than Butler and Gordon. I believe Peralta might , but I am not positive. Ditto for Yabuta.

No, as odd as it sounds, barring any trades or dramatic changes of course, the only player that Costa can easily replace on the Big League roster is Billy Butler. Sending Butler to Omaha so that Costa can snag Joey Gathright's playing time isn't a terrifically obvious move, but I think it has some merit.

- Costa can outhit Gathright. Gathright is a career .265/.328/.312 hitting in the Major Leagues. While is lack of home run power is obvious, it's startling how few doubles Gathright produces, especially considering his speed.  Last year, Gathright had 70 hits and 62 of them were singles.  As a Royal, Gathright has cranked out 15 doubles, four triples and one home run in 586 trips to the plate. On a different team, Gathright's dogged efforts to get on base (he did post a .371 OBP last year) might be more valuable, but on the Royals it just means he can advance to third base on a Mark Teahen single and be stranded when Jose Guillen strikes out. The thing is, the knock on Costa has always been that he's basically a singles hitter, and he very well might be. Joey Gathright is still a bigger singles hitter, one of the most singles-based hitters in the universe, actually. Again, Costa is showing some pop this season in Omaha, and it wouldn't be unheard of for a guy to flash a little more power than previously shown when he turns 26. Costa doesn't have to slug .550 in the Majors to be an upgrade over Gathright. He doesn't have to slug .500. If Costa can slug .450 in the majors this year, maybe even just .400, he'll probably do enough to off-set what even the best case scenario for Joey Gathright is. Even if all of that isn't true, and Gathright's likely to be a better overall player, the Royals know what they have in Gathright at this point (I hope) but regarding Costa, they don't. They need to find out.

- Billy Butler needs a sabbatical. There is perhaps a deep irony in calling up Costa to chase after a 100 points of slugging but at the cost of demoting Billy Butler, as I well understand. However, at the moment the matter may be mute because Butler is slugging .362. That number is even more remarkable when you consider that Billy is actually hitting .277. As they did with Alex Gordon last season, the Royals have shown remarkable patience with Butler, which in many ways is very admirable, even courageous in the limited way that these matters can truly be courageous. Considering that Butler has no baserunning value and limits Hillman's options afield, it goes without saying that he's not pushing the offense much by hitting an empty .277.  As is often said, the American League is not an instructional league, and I think that there is sufficient evidence that Butler could still use some lower-stress instruction in many aspects of the game. While I am generally not in favor of arb-clock gaming, it must also be said that it may be in the team's financial best interest to have Butler work on things in Omaha. Gordon and Butler are similar, but they are not the same: Butler is much younger and lacks much of Gordon's overall polish. Even though Gordon struggled last season, a rational case can be made that it was good for him to experience that, and hopefully learn from it, at the highest level. It isn't obvious that Butler is at that point.

-Increased Strategical Flexibility. With Costa replacing Butler, Hillman gains another chess piece for the late game pinch-hitting that he seems to be in favor of. The Royals have a number of extremely slow players (Buck, Olivo, Grudz, Gload) as well as a certain shortstop who essentially should never bat more than 3 times a game if you can avoid it. With Costa around, Hillman should feel more comfortable using German and Gathright more optimally and earlier in the game. Or, he can keep German in his back pocket, and feel safer using Callaspo earlier. Costa might also be useful in spelling Guillen and Teahen, while allowing Hillman to feel comfortable that he still has an infield reserve available in German. Butler creates problems, Costa creates solutions. (Ok, that's unbelievably cheesy, but I couldn't resist.)

The best Shane Costa has ever performed at the Major League level came at the opening of the 2006 season, when he was a nearly-regular player for the first 21 games of the campaign. Over that stretch, Costa hit .317/.333/.533, in 61 PAs. A little hacktastic, sure, but that issue is almost a sunk cost with this team at this point. Since then, despite appearing a lot, he's never really got extended playing time, which has likely driven his numbers down. Maybe, maybe not. Yes, unlike, say, Justin Huber, Costa has actually been given a solid chunk of playing time, over 400 PAs in fact, but on the whole it's been haphazard, with lots of pinch-hitting and spot starts. Plus, he's older now, and, the wonderful thing about being in your twenties is that it's a rare moment in your life when being older actually makes you better at stuff.

In both the short and long term, the Royals would be better served by replacing Billy Butler with Shane Costa on the roster. Butler will, without any doubt in my mind, have the better career in baseball. Actually, I'd be willing to be a large sum that he'll be better next year. He might even be better by August. But, with all facets of the game considered equally, he's not not better now. This season isn't about winning, it's about positioning the team to win next year (right? we don't have to wait until 2010, do we?). Billy Butler is still just 22 years old and remains one of the youngest players in baseball. His future is bright. However, he has no position and appears lost on the bases and he isn't hitting. The Royals' plan for him seems to be one of resignation: he is what he is and he isn't going to get better, so let's just guarantee that he becomes a Super Two and accept him for what he is. If that's the case, then the half-hearted efforts to get him starts at first base seem especially ill-conceived. Nothing is being accomplished by the status quo, and even less so will be forwarded once inter-league play begins.

What the Royals need now, is Costa, sweet Costa.

 

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Appendix:

- Royals Authority on Costa in 2007 and then in 2008, the latter link, when they "broke up" with Costa.

 

Back one night in June, as the Royals prepared to take on the hated White Sox in a key matchup for 4th place, I pondered the career of Shane Costa. I'm still not really sure what my angle was, but then again, that was somehow caused by the topic itself, namely that Costa's already mapped out a curious little big-league career.

Well, from here on out, you can count me as a Shane Costa supporter!

Well as fate would have it -- I'm sorry, fate is a pagan concept, and we all know the Royals aren't pagans anymore -- I mean, as providence would have it, that very night Buddisimo threw Costa into the cleanup spot, where he promptly went 2-4 and paced the Royals to a 8-1 victory. For good measure, the night before Bell had batted him leadoff.

For whatever reason, somewhat against my June thesis, my thoughts turned to Costa tonight as a perfectly good candidate for another Fun Facts profile. So lets jump right in:

1. To my knowledge, Costa has never really been injured. Since being drafted in 2003 out of Fullerton, Costa's been a dependable soldier from A-ball to the K. Not being injured sounds fun to me!
2. Although Costa struggled in very limited AAA action in 2005, in the last two seasons he's  certainly had no problems in Omaha. In 2006 he hit .342/.398/.593 against the PCL, followed by a .326/.402/.502 campaign in 2007. Still, you'll immediately notice that downtick in power, Costa only popped 5 HRs with the O-Royals in 2007.  
3. Costa's most active big league season is still 2006, when he earned 243 PAs with the Royals, appearing in 72 games. In 2007, most of his action was in May and June, before he was sent down again in early July. Costa wouldn't return until the end of August. In that second major chunk, Costa appeared in 22 games, but only got 42 PAs, as Bell  viewed him as more as a late inning tool than anything else. Still, Shane managed to hit .289/.357/.421 over that stretch, although that number is a bit misleading, since Costa hit .400/.429/.600 in a 21 PA stretch from August 26th through September 2nd. From that point on, he hot only .176/.300/.235, in 20 PAs. So I guess the fun fact here is: Costa did OK in a somewhat large mini-sample of PAs, even better than you would expect due to the circumstances, but, when you dig even deeper into that mini-sample, it actually turns out that he actually struggled when the assumed  tough circumstances actually came to fruition. See, this is why I am such a good teacher, I make learning fun!
4. Despite accumulating some surprisingly hefty career totals as a Royal, because his career thus far has been so herky-jerky over the last three seasons, Costa's actually not faced many pitchers more than once. Moreover, because of the timing of his sundry callups, he's actually got a distinct AL West flavor to his matchup log. Overall, his most common combatant on the mound has been Carlos Silva. In 13 career battles with Silva, Costa is .500/.538/1.000, with three doubles, a home run and a hit by pitch. So when theres a Silva-Costa brawl in 2012, we'll know why. Who else does Costa own? How about  Tanyon Sturtze: he's 1-1 with a HR. Costa killers? Shane's 0-5 against Francisco Rodriguez, with three strikeouts, and 0-6 against Jered Weaver and Scott Baker.
5. Speaking of the Weaver family, Costa's first career home run was off Jeff Weaver, in the 5th inning of a 2-2 tie at the K.  While some would consider that a clutch home run, I cannot. Why? of Costa's five career big league HRs, three have come with no outs and the other two with 1 out. Moreover, four of his five homers have been solo shots, with the other a measly two-run HR. Clearly, Costa doesn't care about winning, he just cares about his stats. If Tom Brady ever looked at him, he would immediately burst into flame.
5. In June I touched on how the Bell/Costa combination produced all kinds of batting order madness. For the record, Costa has batted in all nine positions, although he has never actually started a game as the #3 hitter, though he has two career PAs there. At the major-league level, Costa's most common slot has been 6th, with 108 PAs. Here's the full breakdown:

Seriously, while we spent much time last season discussing Bell's lineup machinations, I must state again: I really had no problem with it. However, viewed from above, with guys like Costa, I think this does reflect something of the organization's general feeling of uncertainty about him. And its not only the general spread, but the distribution here: its not like he's all leadoff and #9, or all 3-5 or something like that. No, at various times, he's been theoretically just about everything, from a middle-back of the lineup run-producer (think Joe Randa types) or maybe a table-setter of import, or maybe just end of the lineup garbage.

Bonus Fun Facts! Costa is currently 119th in team history in at bats (421), and will tie Joe Nunnally with his next Royal appearance.  Sadly, Costa has already been easily passed by organizational Johnny-Come-Lately Joey Gathright (457). Costa is currently tied with Jeff Conine for 117th in team history in hits, with 107, and is tied with Ruben Gotay for 118th in total bases, with 154. Ruben Gotay made it into 130 games? Who knew!?!                        

According to the official team bio, Costa was hit by pitches 57 times as a college player... Costa participated in the 2006 Royals Caravan, and props for doing that (although no word if he was part of the crew that watched the Office)... At least one person out there hopes Costa is single, and thinks he's hot... Costa's signing bonus was $775K, and he's accumulated 1.108 years of MLB service time... This may or may not be Costa's myspace page... Costa was discussed on Royals Authority this time a season ago.

I was an awesome singles hitter in little league, as practically everyone was. You see, back then all you had to do to get a hit on the score was hit the ball not directly at a fielder and you had about a ninety percent chance of it getting through or beating the lollipop throw. Some kids have already learned how to drive the ball a bit in little league, but barely anyone knows how to field. There was about one pitcher in our league out of six that we faced that could get through a game without walking more than he struck out. It was definitely a hitter's league, and my last year on the little league field I hit .536. I couldn't tell you what my OBP was, but just to brag I'm going to write that it had to be at least .650. Slugging average? Not so much, but I was good.

A funny thing happens to you, though, when your average gets above .500. I realized, twelve years old at the time, that I could go 2-for-4 and my average would go down. 2-for-4 is a pretty gosh darn good day's work, but it was actually below average for me on the season (and god knows how many other players). It struck me as an odd pecularity at the time and, obviously, the memory has stuck with me. For those interested, my Indians defeated the White Sox for the championship that year, sweeping a best two-of-three series from those baseball villains that included my neighbor down the street who had sold out after coming up in the minors with me.

In the majors, you don't have many people hitting .500 these days, so 2-for-4's no longer a good example. You do, however, have players every year who hit .380 for the first month and then see their average decline even when they get a hit in every three at-bats. It's an unwinnable game that way, in that you'll come back to earth even if you hit reasonably well. The flip side of this is the player who starts out his season badly, to the point where a 1-for-4 night raises his pathetic batting average. If we're talking about a player who's sub-.200, one measly bingle in five at-bats can cause a rise.

Then, there's Jason LaRue. Jason could go 1-for-6 in the next game he plays, and his batting average would go up. That's how bad he's been at the plate this season. I know I've brought this up before, but he's managed to hurt the team well above and beyond the impact you can expect from a back-up catcher. LaRue has been--I love typing this--0-for-August. He's 0-for-19 since the month started. At least he avoided not getting on base all month, as he managed a walk against the White Sox on the 22nd. Yippee. Saying "at least he had a walk this month" is like saying "at least that ant is still alive" after an unfortunate insect has been torn in half by a particularly sadistic eight-year-old. It's not much consolation to the ant. Or the Royals.

For those wondering where all of this is going (other than to crow about my little league abilities) NYRoyal's diary below prompted me too examine just how badly of the Royals are compared to the theoretical "league average hitter" team. As all of you know, widely-felt preseason expectation were that this team was going to be pretty good offensively and bad at pitching. That hasn't even come close to being true, as heroes like Gil Meche, Joakim Soria, and Brian Bannister have saved the pitching staff from nigh-certain embarrassment. Meanwhile, the Royals--LaRue being the most extreme example--have flailed at the plate quite a bit this year despite notable improvements over the course by guys like Alex Gordon, Mark Grudzielanek, Billy Butler, and (shrug) Emil Brown. So how do the Royals measure up to the league averages by position?

Catcher LA: .252/.315/.391

John Buck - .226/.316/.459

Jason LaRue - .141/.230/.275

Buddy Bell's self-fulfilled prophecy has, uh, come true. Neither catcher is hitting well right now, but it still should be painfully obvious that Buck has waaaaaaaay more value than LaRue. In fact, even though he's hitting .228, Buck's OBP is one tick above average for AL catchers and his slugging percentage is a nifty 68 points higher. In other words, Buck's secondary skills (power, higher walk rate) are carrying him to the point where he's still above average. Was anyone else surprised to see how low the league average was for American League catchers?

Jason LaRue is terrible at hitting a baseball. No two ways above it.

First Base LA: .270/.348/.446

Ross Gload - .301/.321/.462

Ryan Shealy - .221/.286/.308

Anyone else long for the days where Ryan Shealy was going to be a slugging presence in the middle of the line-up for the Royals? Shealy OPSed nearly 800 in his first go-round with the Royals in 2006, but between injuries and general suckiness, he proved totally incapable of follow his 2006 act. It really was a bit uncanny how bad he was. Get well soon, Ryan, your MLB career depends on it.

For you Ross Gload fans out there, this is me acknowledging that Gload has exploded all the way up to the vicinity of the DH-diluted average line for an AL first basemen (though the loss in OBP hurts more than the gain in power). If he were a guy who played a position up the middle of the diamond, I'd like him. He's not, and the end result is he's logged a lot of playing time at first that hasn't turned out as bad as I would have expected. He's absitively posolutely not the future at first for the Royals, but keeping him around to sub at the corners is fine.

Second Base LA: .282/.339/.413

Mark Grudzielanek - .304/.346/.439

Esteban German - .265/.357/.369

Another fine season for Grudzielanek, as he ends up being a pretty nifty player at second when you factor in his (generally accepted) above average defense. He's outstripped the LA second basemen on all three hitting line fronts as his batting average his risen steadily after a slow start. The lone problem with Grudzielanek is that he has to keep hitting around three hundred to keep this up, and players with his skillset--low walk totals, no speed--can disappear off the map when they get old. No disrespect meant to Mark, of course. He's an oldie, and, for now, he's a goody.

German's batting average is running a little low for him, and so he really hasn't been as good as Grudzielanek to this point in the year. If he gets back up around .280, the Grudzielanek-German celebrity deathmatch needs to be arranged to settle this matter once and for all. In any case, German's been a useful reserve again this year, with a very good walk rate that suggests he could hold down a starting job at second if someone gives him a shot.

Shortstop LA: .270/.323/.394

Tony Pena Jr. - .262/.282/.345

Pena's got just nine walks all year long, which is impatience to the point where it's very very hard for any other skill to compensate for it. Pena's defense has got good, not great, reviews from the jumble of metrics and observers that one is forced to go by when getting into a serious defense evaluation discussion. He's contributed twenty doubles on the year as well, and he probably takes his vitamins and loves his mom. He's still not even close to being a league average shortstop with the bat. There are plenty of things that you can do to compensate for a .282 OBP. Examples include slugging .700, rescuing handicapped orphans from evil villains every morning, firing Joe Morgan from ESPN, feeding an entire third world country, and qualifying for sainthood. Actually the fact of the matter is that even if Pena takes the Mother Teresa life path, it would be hard for me to recommend him to an actual baseball team. He's too old to expect much in the way of improvement. Please pass the Moose Tacos.

Third Base LA: .263/.332/.425

Alex Gordon - .244/.319/.401

Another one where I expected the league average line to be higher, which just goes to show that there are some pretty crappy third basemen lying around. Gordon is not anywhere near as crappy as early in the season, and has broken the .400 mark for his slugging percentage. Amazingly, after hitting about .043 over the first eight months of the season, Gordon is twenty BA points from being almost dead-on league average.

Needless to say, we all expect Alex to be capable of greater things, but it's encouraging that he's managed to do better here in the second half. If there's anything un-obvious that bothers me here, it's that his OBP is hiked up because of HBPs. I asked Alex if he thought that was a repeatable skill, and all he did was smirk knowingly. Here's hoping he's the next Craig Biggio in that regard, because every little bit helps.

AL Left Field LA: .273/.333/.423

Joey Gathright - .347/.404/.388

Needless to say, there's more to this than meets the eye. Gathright, gosh love him for his positive contributions to KC this year, is OPSing thirty-six points above league average. If I was absolutely positive he could replicate his current line over a full season, I'd already have penciled him in as a starter for 2008 with "+" next to his name. He's a speedster who isn't bad in the outfield, and is virtually incapable of hitting for power (.41 IsoP[!]). In other words, he's kind of like good-year Scott Podsednik right now.

Joey's career line, even with this year's 160 PAs, is .269/.335/.320. That's not acceptable from a center fielder, much less a corner outfielder. How much you value Gathright depends on the weight you place on his at-bats this season as compared to the way he's hit in the majors in the past. Given this, it should be pretty unsurprising that I can't take him seriously as a good starting solution for next year. No matter how much you think 2007 represents an improvement for Gathright as opposed to a fluky 160 PAs, you are not going to convince me that he's going to hit .347 every year. Albert Pujols doesn't hit .347 every year. No one does. So, how high do you expect his average to stay once he comes back to earth? That's the question you need to ask if you want to project Gathright's value for next year. If Joey's "true ability" is hitting .305, for example, and you give him credit for his current level of power and patience, he'd hit around .305/.365/.355. Vintage Podzilla, and nowhere near good enough to start in left field and be a plus, but arguably good enough for center. If his true ability is around .285 (sixteen points higher than his career average)...well...it doesn't matter where he plays.

Center Field LA: .270/.333/.424

David DeJesus - .277/.356/.392

Super Joey - .347/.404/.388

NHZ Optimism Joey - .305/.365/.355

NHZ Pessisism Joey - .285/.345/.335

Career Line Joey - .269/.335/.320

Let the argument begin. DeJesus, with his solid hitting, patience approach, and low salary is both one of the Royals most reliable assets and at the same time one of their best trading chips. He doesn't have the "no power" rep that Joey does, and he's not paid much, so it's reasonable to assume that he could bring a pretty good return. The thing is, what with him already signed at below market prices and being a plus with the bat (if definitely not a star), trading him what with the Royals' lack of good bats seems loony when looked at from another angle.

DeJesus is probably a little above league average because twenty-odd points of OBP are worth more than the equivalent SLG points. DeJesus does have some extra base power, with fourty XBH from the lead-off position this year. His past history woudl suggest his BA is a little low right now, but not too low compared to what you expect. It appears that "this" is what he is, as preseason breakout predictions really haven't come true, but he's still a useful player at a key defensive position who you can expect to be at least average with the bat, maybe a little more. To facilitate the whole DeJesus-Gathright match-up, I include the four horsemen of Joey: Super, Optimist NHZ, Pessimist NHZ, and Career Line. Super looks like an improvement on DDJ for sure. Optimist is acceptable but nothing that DDJ can't do better. Pessimist is bad. Career line is worse. I report, you decide. Who's the better option in center next year if DDJ maintains his previous levels of performance?

Right Field LA: .287/.358/.464

Emil Brown - .245/.296/.346

Mark Teahen - .284/.351/.407

Shane "The Pain" Costa - .200/.219/.243

A recent topic on RR was that Emil and his Noodle Bat might be an illusion brought on by lack of playing time, and that Emil might be league average again if he had been allowed to play through his slump the whole way. Even so, even if you up all Brown's percentages by fourty points, his power is down this year and "league average, old, and with bad defense" is not exactly a performance that screams "he's a building block" anyway.

Mark Teahen I somehow forgot about when I initially put this article together, which must have had something to do with him being on the DL. Those familar with Mark's performance this season and his off-season shoulder surgery might have actually expected him to go the disabled left earlier as Teahen's power has been sapped compared to last year when he slugged .517. For now, it is kind of for us to know what to expect from Teahen in 2008, as I think shoulder surgery has both limited his power and upped his k-rate. While I would hesitate to predict Teahen slugging .517 next year, I think he can get back to league average for a RF--820 OPS--with room for improvement. For now, Mark's plate discipline has remained intact, which is encouraging, but he missed the LA slugging line by sixty points. We all like Teahen a lot, I think, but I really hope I'm right about a bounceback next season because a .407 SLG won't help much in a corner spot.

Shane Costa is included her so those so inclined can tell nasty jokes about him behind his back. Costa's performance this year is like a terrible sandwich from McDonald's: the next time around he'll be better, but that doesn't mean there should be a next time around for the McChicken...or for Shane.

Designated Hitter LA: .263/.350/.433

Billy Ray Butler - .295/.352/.436

He'a already a league average DH at age 21, which is yet another way of saying that Billy Ray is going to be a good one. With muscular maturation and experience will come the power he displayed in the minors, and I think I speak for us all when I say that thank god he hasn't been Huberized. Butler should be a very good hitter for a very long time. The only question now is if he can play first well enough to start there, or if he's a career DH. It's not the worst thing in the world to be a career DH.

In Conclusion, We Stink

Naturally, it's not as cut and dried as that. However, if you go by this year's batting lines, Grudzielanek, Gathright, and Butler are the three definite above averages for the Royals. If you read this closely, you know what I think about the chances of Gathright and Grudzielanek repeating their 2007 production next year. DeJesus is probably a little better than league average. Buck is defintely better than average thanks to all his dingers, but LaRue has ruined everything when it comes to catcher (maybe a slight exagerration).

In the end, we're left with a team that needs a healthy dose of power and patience in the line-up next year. For those of you who haven't already done so, I recommend you visit the FA diary by NYRoyal that's on the main page to view which guys you think could fit the bill. By my count, we need a 1B/DH, a corner outfielder (maybe two) who can hit the ball over the fence (preferably one without a BB gun), and a shortstop. Other than that, we're not bad off in the line-up if the young players like Gordon and Butler improve.

Spreadsheet Baseball returns next week but probably not at its regular time due to my return to my institute of higher learning. Sorry for my recent absence; I always get sick when falls sets in and the temperature changes, blah. For this week's edition of SB, comments/questions are welcome/encouraged.

So Joe Posnanski, where's that precious competence you promised after Opening Day? We're less than two weeks into the season, and if anything the Royals look worse than ever, a pitching staff in shambles, a bizarre and punchless lineup, wholly arrogant ownership and curious (at best) daily decisions by Allard and Buddisimo.

Your Team, Your Town. You're Payin' For It.

Make that 2-9, and 0-6 on the roadie. Despite the return of David DeJesus, and some good play from Mark Teahen and Shane Costa, the Royals fell again to Tampa, 9-5. Still, the lineup isn't functioning right now, with Sweeney posting another 1-4, Minky throwing down an O'fer in the middle of the lineup, and Buddisimo Bell continuing to blackball Matt Stairs damn near out of baseball.

Even worse, the Royals ruined the season debut of Mark Redman, who was decent through 5 IP, allowing only 3 ER. Steve Stemle came in and quickly blew up the game, turning a 4-3 lead into an 8-4 def' before 11,853 thrilled fans in Florida.

The Royals have scored 45 runs this season, good for 28th "best" in baseball (although with one more Giants run tonight against the Dodgers the Royals could drop further). The team's cumulative batting line is .240/.291/.401, which includes the worst team OBP in baseball. (Amazingly, there are quite a few NL teams that are slugging less than our Royals.)

Shockingly, the offense isn't even the biggest problem. The Royals team ERA stands at an incredible 7.45 which stands a full run higher than any other team in baseball (take that Pittsburgh). The Royals are allowing the highest OPS in baseball (.906 ... think about that for a second, against the Royals, every player is an All-Star), with the second worst K/BB ratio to go along with all the hits, a pathetic 1.19.

Take a look at some individual stats from the pitching staff:

Anchoring the bullpen is Jimmy Gobble's 19.64 ERA, along with Andy Sisco's at 12.60, and Steve Stemle's 15.00. By those standards, Luke Hudson's 6.14 ERA and Mike Wood's 6.48 are acceptable.

No sarcasm can mask my appreciation for Elmer Dessens 1.17 ERA however, however fluky it may be.

From the starters, we've been treated to some good work from Scott Elarton, a 3.60 ERA in 20 IP and some "competent" performances from Bautista, who's now on the DL. Still, we've also been horrified by Joe Mays' ungodly 12.86 and Jeremy Affeldt's 14.73.

At the plate, we've watched a similarly well-distributed range of awfulness. Sweeney's struggles are well-documented, and he's currently at .125/.282/.250. Still, Doug Mientkiewicz was voluntarily brought in to play for us, and he's not much better at .235/.289/.324... an OBP under .300 is an OBP under .300.

Which brings us to about half the lineup. Angel Berroa's established quite a standard of failure the last two seasons, and is right where he belongs in '06: .282/.300/.333. Mark Teahen is at .235/.270/.382 while Tony Graffanino (who's been DHing and playing first) is at .154/.154/.385.

On the positive side, we have indeed gotten good work from Reggie Sanders, who's sitting at .282/.300/.564; and Emil Brown's been familiarly OK, at .237/.356/.421. (At least someone in the lineup is getting some walks.) The lovable Mark Grudzielanek is at .279/.319/.395, which isn't terribly good, and belies the overall impression that he's played well early. Lastly, John Buck has been John Buck, although we're still waiting for his first home run.

And, as I become increasingly obsessed with, Matt Stairs has been granted 6 PAs this season, which is three less than Paul Bako and 31 less than Minky. I just don't get it.

Since the Royals are now officially taxpayer funded, don't we deserve to ask, "where's the competence Mr. Glass?"

The Good Ole Days...

So Joe Posnanski, where's that precious competence you promised after Opening Day? We're less than two weeks into the season, and if anything the Royals look worse than ever, a pitching staff in shambles, a bizarre and punchless lineup, wholly arrogant ownership and curious (at best) daily decisions by Allard and Buddisimo.

Your Team, Your Town. You're Payin' For It.

Make that 2-9, and 0-6 on the roadie. Despite the return of David DeJesus, and some good play from Mark Teahen and Shane Costa, the Royals fell again to Tampa, 9-5. Still, the lineup isn't functioning right now, with Sweeney posting another 1-4, Minky throwing down an O'fer in the middle of the lineup, and Buddisimo Bell continuing to blackball Matt Stairs damn near out of baseball.

Even worse, the Royals ruined the season debut of Mark Redman, who was decent through 5 IP, allowing only 3 ER. Steve Stemle came in and quickly blew up the game, turning a 4-3 lead into an 8-4 def' before 11,853 thrilled fans in Florida.

The Royals have scored 45 runs this season, good for 28th "best" in baseball (although with one more Giants run tonight against the Dodgers the Royals could drop further). The team's cumulative batting line is .240/.291/.401, which includes the worst team OBP in baseball. (Amazingly, there are quite a few NL teams that are slugging less than our Royals.)

Shockingly, the offense isn't even the biggest problem. The Royals team ERA stands at an incredible 7.45 which stands a full run higher than any other team in baseball (take that Pittsburgh). The Royals are allowing the highest OPS in baseball (.906 ... think about that for a second, against the Royals, every player is an All-Star), with the second worst K/BB ratio to go along with all the hits, a pathetic 1.19.

Take a look at some individual stats from the pitching staff:

Anchoring the bullpen is Jimmy Gobble's 19.64 ERA, along with Andy Sisco's at 12.60, and Steve Stemle's 15.00. By those standards, Luke Hudson's 6.14 ERA and Mike Wood's 6.48 are acceptable.

No sarcasm can mask my appreciation for Elmer Dessens 1.17 ERA however, however fluky it may be.

From the starters, we've been treated to some good work from Scott Elarton, a 3.60 ERA in 20 IP and some "competent" performances from Bautista, who's now on the DL. Still, we've also been horrified by Joe Mays' ungodly 12.86 and Jeremy Affeldt's 14.73.

At the plate, we've watched a similarly well-distributed range of awfulness. Sweeney's struggles are well-documented, and he's currently at .125/.282/.250. Still, Doug Mientkiewicz was voluntarily brought in to play for us, and he's not much better at .235/.289/.324... an OBP under .300 is an OBP under .300.

Which brings us to about half the lineup. Angel Berroa's established quite a standard of failure the last two seasons, and is right where he belongs in '06: .282/.300/.333. Mark Teahen is at .235/.270/.382 while Tony Graffanino (who's been DHing and playing first) is at .154/.154/.385.

On the positive side, we have indeed gotten good work from Reggie Sanders, who's sitting at .282/.300/.564; and Emil Brown's been familiarly OK, at .237/.356/.421. (At least someone in the lineup is getting some walks.) The lovable Mark Grudzielanek is at .279/.319/.395, which isn't terribly good, and belies the overall impression that he's played well early. Lastly, John Buck has been John Buck, although we're still waiting for his first home run.

And, as I become increasingly obsessed with, Matt Stairs has been granted 6 PAs this season, which is three less than Paul Bako and 31 less than Minky. I just don't get it.

Since the Royals are now officially taxpayer funded, don't we deserve to ask, "where's the competence Mr. Glass?"

The Good Ole Days...

The Royals posted a 12-16 record in July, which counts as surprisingly non-horrible in my book. In fact, the Royals were 12-12 for the month headed into this weekend's series against the Rays... and we know how that turned out.

Looking at the primary members of the pitching staff, July looks like a strange month. For one, MacDougal, Affeldt and Sisco were good, bordering on dominant, giving the Royals a 1-2-3 punch at the back end of the bullpen that was one of the American League's best. Importantly, all three continued to post solid, if unspectacular, strikeout numbers that belie continued success. Even Jimmy Gobble had a decent month, eating innings and posting a decent 4.50 ERA, despite allowing a .302 BA in July. 4.50 is nothing to write home (or blog about, as it were), but after 2004 I wasn't sure Gobble was capable of ever sustaining a sub-5.00 ERA ever again. He did it in July.

MacDougal: 12 games, 6 saves, 2.13 ERA in 12 IP

Affeldt: 11 games, 0.90 ERA in 10 IP

Sisco: 12 games, 1.59 ERA in 11.1 IP

Gobble: 9 games, 4.50 ERA in 14 IP

With regards to the pitching staff, its clear that Greinke and Carrasco, effectively sabotaged the team's month, turning in awful performances just when LimaTime was heating up and Runelvys was cruising to a second-straight solid month.

Carrasco: 5 games, 2-2 record, 6.75 ERA in 26.2 IP

Greinke: 6 games, 2-4 record, 6.75 ERA in 32 IP

Lima: 6 games, 3-3 record, 3.79 ERA in 35.2 IP

Runelvys: 5 games, 3-1 record, 3.99 ERA in 29.1 IP

Of course, the staff also featured the J.P. Howell/Kyle Snyder combo getting torched in the 5-slot, which should temper one's enthusiasm a tad. As with all bad teams, the good performances never quite add up, or coincide at the right time. Take Carrasco's first two months, Greinke's first two seasons and the last month of LimaTime and Run', and you've got one of the League's best rotations, 1 through 4. Instead, as it stands now, the team's still below average, and probably will be throughout the rest of the season.

Offensively, the carnage continued, as the Royals scored only 122 runs in the month, good for 11th in the American League. Collectively, the team hit .268/.327/.411, revealing an offense that is short on power and big on outs.

Sorted by OBP, the numbers look like this:

Chip Ambres: .348/.464/.522 (27 plate appearances)

Alberto Castillo: .227/.393/.273 (28 plate appearances)

David DeJesus: .330/.386/.527

Mike Sweeney: .337/.381/.629 (Welcome back Mike.)

Donnie Murphy: .250/.364/.429 (33 plate appearances)

T-Long: .314/.351/.429

Angel Berroa: .287/.324/.406

Mark Teahen: .233/.320/.384 (Yikes.)

Emil Brown: .265/.302/.357 (Yikes, again.)

John Buck: .227/.301/.333

Matt Stairs: .241/.273/.386 (Yikes, again, again.)

Super Joe McEwing: .219/.219/.344 (All Hail Super Joe for a walk-free month!)

Ruben Gotay: .169/.211/.197

Shane Costa: .133/.188/.167

As you can see here, the Royals' offense in July was basically Mike Sweeney and a mix of assorted uselessness. Gotay, Costa, McEwing and Teahen all turned in months that raise serious doubts about the ability to play Major League baseball, and Buck and Brown weren't much better. Even Royals Review favorite Matt Stairs isn't blameless here, posting a line worthy of late-career Pete O'Brien or Scott Fletcher. On the other hand, Ambres, Castillo and Murphy all turned in fluky good performances, which helped to soften the blow delivered by the bottom of the lineup. At this point, I'm sufficiently beyond making a snarky comment regarding T-Long, especially considering his semi-adequacy in the face of, apparently, the alternatives. Just as quickly as Emil Brown flirted with an .800 OPS he's back to being a journeyman level player, and well, at least Angel Berroa hit .287 for a month.

It's an off-day for our Royals, as they travel from Chicago to Colorado for a weekend set against the Rockies. Hopefully Bell's been making countless motivational speeches and "lookin' guys in the eye" and letting them know that this will not stand!

The Royals are now 5-20 against the AL Central this season, which is a fairly damning indication of their talent-level. Granted, the Central is having a solid season, and other than the Royals there are no train-wreck teams this season, when in the past their have sometimes been three. Still, the three-division format is baseball's unacknowledged form of parity control, putting the so-called "small-market" teams in the same division, and guaranteeing one of them a playoff spot. So, the Twins get a short series against the Yankees... sounds like a much better and quicker route to equity.

I digress. Let's take a look at some Royals numbers for June:

Angel Berroa: .235/.287/.333

Tony G.: .396/.453/.521

Mike Sweeney: .250/.250/.375 (good job on not taking a walk this month Mike)

Shane Costa: .297/.366/.405

Super Joe McEwing: .368/.429/.421 (he drew a walk? when?)

Emil Brown: .362/.416/.551 (wow, a legitimate major league hitter)

T. Long: .407/.444/.644 (you can't stop Terrence Long...)

David DeJesus: .286/.382/.416

Mark Teahen: .279/.310/.368

Ruben Gotay: .288/.358/.525

John Buck: .260/.288/.380

Matt Stairs: .222/.379/.378(still drawing his walks, slumping otherwise)

On the whole, you can see that June's been a good month for the Royals at the plate, despite downturns by Stairs and Sweeney that might have prevented the team from being really hot this month. T-Long, Gotay and Emil are having strong months, with DeJesus, Super Joe and Costa finding ways to contribute. Buck and Teahen haven't been great, but they haven't been completely terrible either.

Still, it's gonna be a long season in Kansas City, and it looks now like the Bell-Shine may be wearing off.

On this well-earned off day, lets take a look at the Royals "Top Five" in a few critical categories.

OPS:

1. Matt Stairs .907
   
2. Mike Sweeney .847
   
3. Emil Brown .834
   

(4. Shane Costa .796 in 16AB)
5. Tony G. .796

Well, right off the bat, we see a problem, as Stairs and Sweeney essentially play the same position, although the Royals have been fairly good about getting them as many combined ABs as possible. Once again, its nice to see Emil Brown doing OK, and a .834 OPS is nothing to dismiss too easily. Pickering never got his chance, but Emil did, and is making the most of it.

OBP:

1. Shane Costa .421
   
2. Matt Stairs .411
   
3. Tony G .387
   
4. Emil Brown .356
   
5. David DeJesus .352

DeJesus continues to fashion himself as a good OBP source, despite his batting average and power struggles thus far. I'm not sure why he's continually stayed in the 2-hole behind "Berroa's Magical Out Machine", but then again, I've never looked into the fiery eyes of Buddy Bell. Sweeney's eroding discipline continues, and his 12 walks drawn this season is a major disapointment. Simply put, he's just not an elite player with a walk-rate that low. I'm convinced Mike's on about year three of pressing big time, but there isn't much that can be done about it now.

SLG:

1. Mike Sweeney .505
   
2. Matt Stairs .496
   
3. Emil Brown .478
   
4. Tony Gr. .407
   
5. David DeJesus .402

So clearly, DeJesus is already a superior player to Angel Berroa (.368), who supposedly is a decent power source. In the New/Old K however, homers are harder to find, although triples and doubles are a tad more plentiful. I wouldn't bet on Sweeney staying above .500 all season, and its not a good sign when Tony Graffanino is fourth on your team in SLG. That gaping maw between Emil and Tony on the power depth chart should have been filled by Eli Marrerro or Pickering this season, but alas, for differing reasons that wasn't allowed to happen.

BA AVG:

1. Tony G. .321
   
2. Shane Costa .313
   
3. Mike Sweeney .298
   
4. Joe McEwing .294
   
5. David DeJesus .283

Welcome to the unsustainable portion of today's programme, as we have Tony Graffinino's, Shane Costa's and Super Joe McEwing's runs at team glory. Mike's tough June (.238 AVG) has dropped him below .300, which has probably hurt his trade value in Anaheim and elsewhere. I'm not even sure how I'm supposed to feel about that anymore.

Finally, think lineup order is irrelevant? Thanks in part to his health, and in part to his frequent lead-off role: Angel Berroa leads the Royals in PAs this season, with 258- and its not even close. As we can briefly see here, Berroa ISN'T REALLY GOOD AT ANYTHING, but becuase he's fast (yet still dumb on the bases) the Royals view him as the lineup's "spark plug" and have seemingly made a committment to letting him begin as many games with an out as is possible. The man has drawn 8 walks this season. Eight!

Whats so hard about this?