Royals Review: FanPosts

Denny Matthews at Plaza Library

2009-11-20T18:48:02Z

Last night at the Plaza branch of the Kansas City Public Library, Denny Matthews and his ghost writer Matt Fulks had a promo event for Denny’s new book that included an audience Q and A at the end. While most of what Denny had to say dealt with reminiscences of old time good ol’ ballplayers, there were some interesting tidbits to take away:

The reason he became a broadcaster is because he didn’t have a job after college and didn’t have anything better to do. We should all be so unlucky…

He has had multiple opportunities to jump ship and broadcoast for another team, including one time after three years on the job. He could have left the expansion Royals for the big market of Chicago. He stayed because he liked Mr. Kauffman and wanted to stay loyal to him.

He shared a bottle of water on stage at the Hall of Fame induction ceremony with Tony Gwynn because Gwynn didn’t grab his bottle. Let’s hope Tony didn’t have cooties!

He doesn’t like the DH rule. Pitchers enjoy hitting. Mentions Greinke as one of the better hitting pitchers the Royals have had.

Denny’s “not sold” on pitch counts. He mentions this after recounting how Steve Busby had absolutely electric stuff, was a terrific pitcher, and his career ended prematurely due to injury because he threw a lot of pitches. Seems a self-contradictory juxtaposition, but I digress.

In response to the question of essentially, why don’t we have any good players, Denny says scouting is an “inexact science.” We’ve had lots of high draft choices that other scouts agree on. Players might have physical ability but not be smart enough, can’t handle the pressure, etc. He says intelligence is more important than ability. Smart players will “figure out a way to win.” No mention is made of players that have been acquired at the MLB level. Maybe scouting them is an inexact science too. In fairness to Denny, as an employee of the team, there is certainly a limit on how publicly critical he can be of the team, so this may have been a sidestep from that aspect of the question. He seemed to pause to carefully consider his words a few times, so maybe he thinks Dayton's an idiot, just can't say so at a book promo.

At this point he made fun of the annoying fan in the audience that kept yelling stuff, but in a way that made the idiot in the audience not realize he was being made fun of. I have a hearty appreciation of this subtle art.

Fan asks him what Dayton’s best and worst has been. His best is that he has a plan and he’s sticking to it. Denny, it would seem, trusts the Process. Denny says the plan is based on pitching and defense, which will keep you in games even if your offense is bad.

Dayton’s worst move according to Denny is signing Yabuta. This is a pretty good answer, but also a really easy one. As an aside, why isn’t the Yabuta contract ridiculed far more frequently? 6.5 million guaranteed for 51.2 innings of 5.42 FIP? Double the salary of the spork and less than half of his [admittedly negative] value? Maybe this move isn't slammed as much because at least Dayton had the sense to not play this guy when it turns out he was terrible?

He wants change in baseball’s economics. He doesn’t think the Royals can compete against the Yankees payroll. Revenue sharing essentially means you can pay for an extra utility infielder (thanks for the free spork, Mr. Steinbrenner), but not an impact player. He likes the NHL model of salary cap.

Hal McRae was his favorite manager, though I think he meant that more in terms of to talk to/interview than in terms of his ‘skill’ as a manger.

The majority of it was his recounting of old time baseball stories, which were certainly neat, but I’m probably too young to really appreciate since a lot of the stories were of players who peaked before I was born.

All in all it was pretty interesting. He was certainly has a scouts and play the game the right way kind of perspective, but it’s still interesting to get the thoughts of some one who has been with the team for forty-one years.

It was taped by Metro Sports, and should be available on their On Demand as well as potentially the website. It also has little videos of him getting inducted, him talking about the new Royals hall of fame, etc.

Royals sign P Jorge Campillo

2009-11-20T17:35:04Z

The Royals continue to the be the most active bidders on the minor league free agent market. Not content with guys like Wilson Betimet, John Bannister, Edwin Bellorin or Brad Thompson, the Royals today announced the signing of P Jorge Campillo. Campillo, 30, has the benefit of being both an ex-Mariner AND an ex-Brave. He only pitched 4 1/3 innings in the big leagues in 2009 due to shoulder tendinitis, but he posted a 3.91 ERA in 158 2/3 innings in 2008 with Atlanta. He is another soft-tosser, but a strikethrower with a 2.39 BB/9 innings in 180 MLB innings.

Campillo was a teammate of Joakim Soria for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic in 2009.

Fangraphs: Jorge Campillo

Two reasons to like Jorge Campillo

Kansas City Fails To Pick Up Option On Royals

2009-11-19T20:36:34Z

via www.theonion.com

Part of me wishes this was true. Especially when we were forced to pay for renovations and didnt even get the rolling roof. We shoulda called their bluff and not voted for that POS addition, and either let em leave or built a new stadium downtown in place of the Sprint Center. F the Royals, F the Chiefs, welcome to a loosing city Mavericks. We cant even get the goddamn Onion in print here in KC??? Not that the news paper is a thriving product, but its free and we all love Free stuff ya buncha t-shirt Tuesday totin fools.

Royals sign P Brad Thompson

2009-11-19T17:41:26Z

The Royals have signed former Cardinals right hander Brad Thompson to a one year minor league deal. Thompson, 27, was 2-6 with a 4.84 ERA in 80 innings in 2009, and has a lifetime 4.36 ERA in 385 MLB innings. He is a groundball pitcher, with a career groundball rate of 52.2%. His strikeout numbers are very low - 4.20 per nine innings for his career due to a fastball that tops out at about 87 mph, but he doesn't manage to walk a ton of guys, and when he keeps the ball low he can be somewhat effective. Not a bad candidate at all for a long relief/5th starter. Certainly better than signing Horacio Ramirez for $1.9 million.

Thompson hopes spring training doesn't interfere with senior prom

What would be an appropriate haul for Greinke?

2009-11-18T23:22:49Z

A good buddy of mine thought the following return would be pretty reasonable, while I disagreed and thought it would be way, way too much to ask for:

-An MLB-ready middle infielder

-An MLB-ready centerfielder

-Three AA prospects

-Three A prospects

-First-round draft picks from 2010 through 2020 (11 total)

He also noted Greinke's team-friendly contract and the following:

"Consider the value-added significance of Greinke in KC. Imagine how much interest in the team - not to mention ticket sales - would suffer if they made another Dye for Perez or Beltran for Buck, Teahan, Wood deal."

What are everyone's thoughts?

Poll

What do you think of the return for Greinke proposed here? Would GMDM be asking for not enough, just enough, or too much in return?

Shane Costa and Ryan Shealy Eras Officially End

2009-11-17T21:10:02Z

MLB has released the list of six-year minor league free agents, which includes notable Royals Shane Costa, Ryan Shealy, and Chris Lubanski. Under the rules, a minor leaguer with six full years of credited service time in the minors can become a free agent if his organization does not place him on its 40-man major league roster. Neither Costa, Shealy, nor Lubanski were expected back, so this comes as no surprise. Costa is now free to fulfill his destiny as a backup outfielder for the Padres, while Shealy and Lubanski will be looking for jobs filling out AAA rosters.

CHONE Projections for 2010

Costa: 279/336/418, +1 batting runs above average

Shealy: 245/329/398, -2 batting runs above average

Lubanski: 243/309/379, -13 batting runs above average

The full list of now former Royals is after the break.

Pitchers: RHP Juan Abreu, RHP John Bannister, LHP Tim Hamulack, RHP Luke Hudson, LHP Michael O'Connor, RHP Chad Orvella, LHP Heath Phillips

Catchers: J.R. House, John Suomi, Vance Wilson

Infielders: Chase Fontaine, Ryan Shealy, Corey Smith

Outfielders: Cory Aldridge, Shane Costa, Chris Lubanski, Brian McFall, Tim Raines Jr.

Juan Abreu is a mild surprise as he has posted double digit K/9 rates throughout his career, but given that he also has posted a BB/9 rate near 6.0, the surprise is only mild.

The players can always re-sign with the Royals, so some of them may be back.

Predictions: Will Greinke Win the Cy Young?

2009-11-17T00:10:16Z

Does Greinke take home the award or not?

Poll

Will Greinke win the Cy Young?

Saturday in the AFL

2009-11-14T21:02:49Z

Saturday in the AFL:

Mike Moustakas managed to drag his morbidly obese body around the bases for a double and a triple-he's 2-2 so far

Aaron Crow: 4ip 1h 0r 0er 0w 4k 7 ground outs, 1 flyout

Blake Wood pitched a scoreless inning

Royals Links: DeJesus Rumors, Chunky Moose, Gold Glove Outrage, Pete Rose's Galpal, Bill Simmons, Lech Walesa and Rany's Return

2009-11-12T21:38:08Z

The big news in Royalsville are the DeJesus rumors and the announcement that Alberto Callaspo did not qualify for arbitration as a Super Two. Expect Moore to get great anti-value for these guys any day now. The little news, but maybe a growing meme, is the Mike Moustakas weight gain. Sickels brought back a negative report from Arizona, and I've seen at least one other reference as well.

If you're into irony, you'll note that the headline about "controversy" from Arkansas Expats does not refer to their basketball team's horrific rape scandal/allegations. Life in the SEC.

Lastly, there are two interesting pieces in their regarding the man of the moment, Bill Simmons, who now stands at the top of the mountaintop as basically the top guy on ESPN.com and the author of a wildly popular book.

Royals:

Baseball:

Grab Bag:

Similarity Scores through 2009

2009-11-12T02:24:17Z

Because it's amusing to figure out who is similar to who.

Batters	is most similar to	or	In 2008, he was most similar to
Alberto Callaspo	Smoky Burgess	Don Slaught
Alex Gordon	Howard Johnson	Darnell Coles	Joe Foy
Billy Butler	Kent Hrbek	John Olerud	Keith Hernandez
David DeJesus	Tony Gonzalez	Coco Crisp	Roy Weatherly
Jose Guillen	Kevin McReynolds	Joe Rudi	Kevin McReynolds
Mike Aviles	Tony Eusebio	John Baker
Mike Jacobs	Andre Thornton	Fred Whitfield	Fred Whitfield
Willie Bloomquist	Don Ross	Bob Jones	Don Ross
Yuniesky Betancourt	Deivi Cruz	Lonny Frey	Aaron Hill

Encouraging: Butler's comps (even if his current #1 means that he'll be hosting a fishing show after retiring at 34).

Discouraging: $12M for a Kevin McReynolds comp.

How about pitchers?

Pitchers	is most similar to	or	Last year, he was most similar to
Zack Greinke	Ralph Terry	Ben Sheets	Ben Sheets
Brian Bannister	Shawn Boskie	Sean Bergman	Rodrigo Lopez
Luke Hochevar	Brian Rose	Chad Durbin	Seth Greisinger
Kyle Davies	Brian Meadows	Frank Rodriguez	Jamey Wright
Gil Meche	Todd Stottlemyre	Matt Clement	Jason Marquis
Joakim Soria	Rod Beck	Rawly Eastwick	Bruce Sutter
Kyle Farnsworth	Dan Miceli	Mike Trombley	Jay Witasick

Brian Meadows was traded for Dan Miceli and Jay Witasick in under a year. Both Miceli and Witasick were Royals although Miceli was traded for Stan Belinda. Meadows also comped by age to Kyle Davies, Joe Mays, Albie Lopez, and former 2003 Omaha Royal James Baldwin in four separate years. Making Meadows the ultimate Robinson/Baird-era Royals pitcher.

So, what are the surprises and the signs of concern here?

Late Night Royals Links: Trade Rumors, Yankee Spending, Little Things

2009-11-10T04:58:40Z

Royals:

Baseball:

Grab Bag:

Say It Ain't So, Sammy

2009-11-10T00:55:18Z

via media.nbcchicago.com

The above photo shows Sosa on the left at a May 2009 People Magazine event. The right is Sosa earlier this week in Las Vegas for the Latin Grammys.

What the hell are you doing Sammy.

From NBCchicago.com

The cause of Sammy's skin condition is unknown, but guesses from around the web include vitiligo (a skin-whitening genetic condition that Michael Jackson claimed to suffer from), repercussions from steroid use, and "really bad makeup."

But a former Cubs rep told the Tribune he's going through some sort of skin rejuvenation process.

"He's not trying to be Michael Jackson," Rebecca Polihronis told the paper. "He was surprised he came out looking so white."

You can see the full article here

More pictures you ask?

via www.ecoworld.com

via images.huffingtonpost.com

Wow.

Questions about Analyzing Defense

2009-11-08T15:37:37Z

I've been looking at Alberto Callaspo's UZR numbers and I've got some questions about how to use UZR to project for the coming year.

Fangraphs has been reviewing the best fielders from 07-09--pointing out that one season of UZR is equivalent to about 1/3 season of batting (in other words, it takes 3 seasons of UZR to have a good grasp on a players ability. Last year Callaspo was not good (-7.3), in 2008 he was above average (+1.9 although it was in about 1/4 the innings). Should we view Callspo as a -5.4 (by adding 08 and 09 together)? Should we give the 09 numbers more weight?

Or looking at Yuniesky Betancourt. His UZR has gone: 07=-1, 08=-13, 09=-21. For 2010--should we project an average of those 3 numbers or do we follow the progression and project an unfathomable -30?

I know there probably aren't concrete answers to this but I'm curuious to hear people's opinions.

Mike Moustakas in the AFL Futures game

2009-11-08T04:26:30Z

So I'm sitting here, waiting for my girlfriend to get ready for the evening and I remembered that the AFL futures game was on the MLB network. So with rum and coke in hand, I thought I'd chronicle Moose's AB's. Press play on the video if you'd also like to listen to a good song. Fucking took me 25 minutes to figure this motherfucker out.

Live from Surprise, AZ, home of the Kansas City Royals as well as the Texas Rangers. The play by play guy called this ballpark one of the "crown jewels" of the Cactus League.

At Bat #1

Moose, and may I say Moose? (He looks Billy Butler-esque) He grounded out to 1B in what would very likely be a single at least 60-70% of the time. For whatever reason, first bagger Brandon Snyder was WAY off the line when he picked up the grounder and tossed it to the pitcher covering first. One out, but not a bad out as it advanced the runner and would have likely been a single in most other situations. He was facing Tommy Mendoza of the Angels organization. It was the third pitch of the AB.

At Bat #2

I missed this one. I had to run to the god damned gas station to get something for my girlfriend. But according to the box score Moose had a single and later ended up scoring. According to the gameday however, Moose was facing Daniel Moskos and had a "sharp ground ball" into right field off a 92 MPH four seam FB. It was the first pitch of the AB. Also of note is that Moskos is a LHP selected 4th overall by the Pirates in 2007.

*Mike Leake, pitching for the East squad really has sharp breaking stuff. He struck out two in the 4th inning. His pre draft scouting report really looks accurate. To me he basically looks like Brian Bannister RIGHT now.

*Tanner Scheppers throws gas. He also works VERY fast. Physically he reminds me of Jeff Samardzjia. He touched 99 and was working in the mid to high 90s. Sharp 12-6 curve, not thrown for strike. Hate to use cliches, but Scheppers is electric like Tesla.

At Bat #3

Facing LHP Dustin Richardson out of the Red Sox organization. (Richardson is from Newton, KS) Grounds out to SS on the second pitch. Moose now has 3 AB's and has only seen six total pitches. That's the book on him so far. He really needs to see more pitches. The announcer (who claims he is from KS) says that many people from Netwon and Kansas state wide are watching Richardson pitching. He just went on an unusual aside there for a minute.

1B Yonder Alonso is now 3-3 with a double. He's making solid contact. The Reds have a good looking combo in the pipeline with him and Leake. And Heise, didn't know him before tonight.

Just spotted on the MLB Network ticker. "Brad Lidge will undergo surgery to remove loose body from his right elbow" WTF is a loose body inside an actual body? Am I on the wrong side of too many rum and cokes? No, I definitely saw that.

Moose has now been pulled for Carlos Rivero who just made a good pick and throw at the hot corner. I didn't notice any balls hit at Moose in his six innings.

*Danny Gutierrez is now in the game. He apparently has a lot of friends at the game with LOUD cheers at Surprise stadium. He strikes out his first batter with a curve in the dirt. Gets his second batter out on another biting curveball. Got a third K on yet another curve against Jemile Weeks. btw, I HATE saying struck out the side when batters reach base even though you K'ed three in the inning. Anyways, an extremely solid inning by Dan. At worst, he's pitching like an 8th inning guy. Too bad he doesn't love Jesus enough. Manny Pina = Yadier Molina?

The game isn't over yet, but Moose is out. And my girlfriend and her brilliant friends want to leave Brookside for some god forsaken bar in Overland Park.

JT20 Dynasty League

2009-11-07T22:10:08Z

I have started started a free fun dynasty league in which each person takes control of a MLB roster & minor league system, drafts, signing free agents....

If this sounds interesting to you, go check out the league message board & league rules and sign up. There is no prize for the winner for each season, it is all just for fun, so join!

I need devoted owners who can check every day.

http://jt20.proboards.com/

thought people here would be interested sign up soon!

KU-KSU Links: Battle for Mt. Sunflower!

2009-11-06T23:45:56Z

Thought some of you might be interested in these links:

Nobody gets out alive.

Royals ownership...how'd it happen?

2009-11-05T17:38:06Z

As a Royals fan since only 2001, I didn’t know much about the ownership of the Royals. I knew Ewing died and then a while later Glass bought them. Reading Glass’s bio, I’ve learned some other interesting thing.

After Ewing died, the Royals were run by a board of directors who made all the financial decisions. In 2000 they attempted to get a new owner. It came down to Miles Prentice who bid $120 million and David Glass who bid $96 million. Seems like an easy call, except David Glass (and his 3 kids, though I don’t know if they were there then) was on the Board of directors who chose the winning bid. Despite the lower bid, Glass was awarded the team and the rest is history.

Here’s an interview with Miles Prentice back in 2000 when he thought he had the team won. (By Rany Jaz no less)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=301

Seems like he would have been a slightly better owner than Glass. At least his head was in the right spot.

To be fair, he was a minor league owner who was going to buy them with the help of other investors. Apparently MLB had a problem with this. I’m not sure the details, but it sounds like he got screwed over.

I would love to hear what anyone who was around then remembers or feels about the whole thing. Or just links to more information about it. Sounds like we got screwed on the deal but this was only after 5 minutes of research.

Royals trade Mark Teahen to the White Sox for 2B Chris Getz and 3B Josh Fields

2009-11-05T15:22:45Z

According to Bill Madden at the NY Daily News, our long national nightmare is now over. Mark Teahen has been traded.

Absolute lie? We shall see.

Teahen was dealt to our division foe, the Chicago White Sox in exchange for disappointing 2B Chris Getz and once promising 3B Josh Fields.

But who will host The Mark Teahen Show now?

Getz, 25, hit .261/.324/.347 in 415 PAs for the Sox in his rookie campaign. He was sensational on the basepaths, stealing 25 bases in 27 attempts. UZR had him at -5.8 last season.

Baseball-Reference: Chris Getz

Fields, a former standout QB at Oklahoma State, was once a promising player for the Sox who had fell out of favor. After posting a .788 OPS with 23 HR in 2007, he was demoted in favor of Joe Crede in 2008, and never seemed to regain his footing. This year he hit .222/.301/.347 with 7 HR 30 RBI in 268 PAs. He has a lifetime .302 OBA.

Baseball-Reference: Josh Fields

What does this mean for Alberto Callaspo? Alex Gordon? Why trade a good OBA guy for two guys that can't really get on base? All of these may be questions you are asking yourself.

Trust the process.

Rays Send Aki Iwamura to Pirates for Random Prospect

2009-11-03T23:12:21Z

Initially I really liked this deal for the Pirates, who during this season earned the benefit of the doubt in my mind. After learning that Iwamura was only under contract through 2010 however, I was less excited. As often gets said with deals like this, "well, the Pirates will probably trade him later," however, as Royals fans, we know that sometimes that doesn't happen.

Looks like Charlie at Bucs Dugout picked a bad day to get sick.

What's your take? (Relevant links after the jump.)

Cameron at Fangraphs takes a sorta anti-stathead position on this trade:

While rebuilding teams have to look towards the future, they also have to avoid the death spiral that can occur when a small revenue team fails to put a good product on the field, drives away the fan base, and in the process lowers future revenues. There is a financial cost to losing that is magnified when teams are uniformly awful, and that cost can inhibit a team’s growth potential in the long run. Developing a fan base is in many ways like developing a farm system – it requires a present term investment that theoretically returns greater future value.

[...]

The key is to be smart about what kinds of investments you make. Russ Branyan’s signing by the Mariners last year is a perfect example of the kind of short-term, low-cost, quality acquisition that rebuilding teams should be looking to make. What the Royals did in throwing money at Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Jacobs, and Willie Bloomquist is an example of this kind of thinking gone badly wrong.

Here's two more:

One Fan's Vision for the Royals

2009-11-02T16:40:48Z

I've had over a month off from the Royals now and have been mulling over some ideas. This is my vision for the Royals in the upcoming 2010 season. Bear with me if you're bored and/or interested in one fans ideal vision for his cherished franchise.

1B- Mike Jacobs / Billy Butler

Obviously Billy Butler is the man. He had a fantastic age 23 season with 50+ doubles. Its quite possible that a few of those doubles turn into homeruns and Billy will parlay his superb contact ability into a .315+ average. 2008 line 301/362/492 (UZR -6.24 2.5 WAR). 2010 prediction - 315/390/505, with him hopefully moving closer to average defensively. As for Mike Jacobs, he should be non tendered and Kila brought up in his spot on the 25 man roster.

2B - Alberto Callaspo

Given his minor league production, his offensive breakout this year wasn't as unexpected as some would have you think. However, as we all know his defense was atrocious, to the tune of a -7.8 UZR. So, some ideas.... With Billy being below average we need someone above average defensively to help cover some of the ground Billy can't. I move Callaspo to 3B where I believe he can be at least average defensively if not just a little better. If that doesn't work out, he can certainly be an atypical DH. He's under team control and cheap for the next few seasons, so he has value. So, with Callaspo moved off of 2B, who plays second? Betancourt could move to 2B, he might be average there. A healthy Aviles could likely play a slick 2B and if he could recapture even a decent portion of his 2008 offensive production then he could post a WAR between 2.5 to 3.5, which is incredibly useful. So, we can keep our fingers crossed for that because Aviles would be a cheap and potentially super productive in house option. Jeff Bianchi could potentially be ready mid season at SS/2B as well. Tug Hulett could also be useful, likely the pure definition of replacement level. A possible trade target could be the Phillies' Jason Donald who is said to project well above average defensively at 2B.

SS - Yuniesky Betancourt

Suck. Serious suck. This forum knows all about Betancourt's serious inadequacy. So, my vision clearly doesn't include Yuni. So where do you go from there? As previously said, Bianchi could be available midseason, but likely not. So what to do? Adam Everett is a free agent and would probably come cheap. Maybe one year for 1.5-2.5 million with a second year option. Even though his defense has declined somewhat in the last couple years, he would be eons better than what we currently have. An intriguing trade option could be to acquire Reid Brignac from the Devil Rays. Also, Jack Wilson has an 8.4 million club option with the M's and might be worth taking a look at if his option is declined. He's a longshot at best though, as he probably wants more dough than the Royals can stomach. He's probably one of the top two to three SS gloves in the game though.

3B - Alex Gordon / Mark Teahen

The most conservative and likely option is simply to move Callaspo to 3B. I have seriously soured on Alex Gordon. I'm not advocating cutting him or even trading him at this point while his value is at its lowest. In my estimation Alex Gordon seems to be an above average athlete so I propose that we move him to RF where his arm can remain an asset. With Teahen's precedent, moving Gordon to the OF isn't actually that drastic of a move. As for Teahen, I trade him for whatever young, high upside talent you can get, or simply non tender him. He's getting expensive, and isn't likely to be a part of a winning Royals team. He could still have good value in the NL or with a team with a glaring need at 3B. And to make my big splash in the offseason, I sign Adrian Beltre. With the depressed economy and his decreased power output, his contract demands will surely be much more reasonable than his currently expiring contract. My offer - $15 million, 3 year offer. With Teahen coming off the books and Olivo as well, in my plan we can afford this contract quite nicely. And we all know about Beltre's superb defensive reputation. This year he posted a 13.7 UZR, as well as a 2.3 WAR. While I know that is nothing to get super excited about, he did battle threw injuries much of the year. Over his last five or so seasons Beltre has averaged out to be about a 3 win player. Not too shabby. Chone Figgins would be another player to consider. What will he command on the market? I love the speed, and UZR rates him highly at 3B with a 14.5. He also posted a 5.9 WAR. So yeah he's coming off a career year. But at 31, with his athletic body he could age relatively well over the next few seasons compared to a lot of other players. He also walked 101 times last year so there's that too. He's basically THE PROTOTYPICAL lead off hitter.

C - Miguel Olivo/John Buck/Brayan Pena

Olivo had a good, albeit unusual offensive season. He is likely going to test free agency. He has a solid arm but well below solid ability at blocking balls. For what he's worth he will be too expensive for the Royals. In my humble opinion, John Buck should also go. Perhaps Buck is a better defender than Olivo slightly, but his impotent arm makes him otherwise ineffective behind the plate. His bat is slow and he is also racking up MLB experience so his 2010 paycheck will be considerably higher than what he is really worth. Therefore, Pena is promoted to the starting role and he will either sink or swim. I then promote either JR House or John Suomi for a cheap in house backup role. Unfortunately these moves are probably only a slightly better than replacement level, but what can you do? Great defensive catchers with above average offensive ability don't exactly grow on trees, so you do what you can with what you have and hope that you're drafting and developing good backstops in the minor leagues.

OF - David Dejesus/Coco Crisp/Mitch Maier/Josh Anderson/Jose Guillen/Mark Teahen

David Dejesus is what he is - an outstanding defensive LF and a pretty decent bat. His contract is good, so unless we get any really tempting offers you keep him. No brainer. I bring Coco back as well. Not on his option though. I buy him out and offer him an incentive laden 2 year deal. With his defensive ability and speed, and an average bat he is still very likely a 2.5-3 win player. I'll take that in CF. As far as RF, as stated before thats where I have moved Gordon. I dispose of Guillen somehow (in a perfect world), Teahen is traded, and Anderson and Maier come off the bench when necessary. This gives us a well above average defensive OF with Dejesus and Crisp. Certainly enough to compensate for your new league average RF in Alex Gordon. Defensively speaking at least.

So my main theme thus far is to do what we can to improve defensively, while giving our young talent a chance to improve offensively. This is nothing new, the Mariners did it last year and the Rays before them. It is now common knowledge that defensive ability is the new market inefficiency. It is also the cheapest and quickest way to improve your pitching as well. Pepper that approach along with a couple good free agent signings and you have a competitive team in the very winnable AL Central

Pitching staff

SP - Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, Luke Hochevar, Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies

RP- Joakim Soria, Juan Cruz, Roman Colon, John Bale, Kyle Farnsworth, Robinson Tejeda, Jamey Wright

Our top four pitchers will, barring injuries, get 180-200 IP next year. Zack is the man, and a healthy Gil Meche I think will rebound nicely. We will continue to find out what we have with Hochevar, and if he's failing at 100 IP or so, you move him to the pen for a change of scenery. Hopefully he harnesses his good stuff If Brian Bannister's trade value picks up at some point then you make the move, otherwise he's an okay 3-4 type pitcher. Kyle Davies' last chance is this upcoming year as he could be destined for the pen as well. If that is the case then we can certainly see if Tejeda really is onto something and give him a shot in the starting rotation. Free agents to consider - Philip Humber is listed as a minor league free agent. He's worth a flyer. Kelvim Escobar could be a good candidate. Justin Duchscher , Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny and Brett Myers could all be very useful at the right price. Randy Wolf is especially attractive pitching form the left side. 2 years / 14 million?

As far as the relief core, Soria, Cruz and Tejeda are locks. Farnsworth is also unfortunately as well because of his contract. I predict Cruz to have a rebound year and Soria to be his useful brilliant self. Bale likely makes the team if he stays cheap and he can get LH's out. I say adios to Jamey Wright and Colon, promoting Carlos Rosa and Chris Hayes. And for another LH option I put Lenny DiNardo in the pen. DiNardo had a great year in the hitting friendly PCL striking out 127 and walking only 38. I don't know why he couldn't be a league average reliever. Aaron Crow could potentially pitch out of the bullpen later this year. Nothing earth shattering here, a few new roles and promotions, with no additional funding needed. I see a league average to slightly above average bullpen here. The only unusual thing I do with this bullpen is use Soria more. If he's not gonna start, we at least maximize the usage of our second best pitcher in a reasonable manner. Thats why I insert Soria into high leverage game situations and keep him on a 30-40 or so pitch count, seeing how far he can go whilst hoping for the Royals to notch another run or two. If he "closes" the game then fine, if not if he's used as a true fireman a la Dan Quisenberry. That way we squeeze out extra value by having him out there more often and pitching in the most important innings of close games. He gets 85-100 or so IP in my vision.

This is not a bad staff. With an improved defense I dare say that we are above average. I don't have a lot of numbers to throw at you but I hope my humble explanations support the case that we can make several minor moves and a couple free agent acquisitions and really improve this team. Our best bet is to do everything we can to improve anywhere we can defensively. In addition to that, we have to hope that another year of development for Butler, Gordon, and Callaspo reaps dividends for us offensively.

With all of this I am clearly being a realist. We're not a World Series caliber team. But ideally, we give ourselves a chance to compete in our own division efficiently. It lets us have another year of development in the minor leagues. Add in another good draft and we are slowly inching towards a very respectable farm system that David Glass utterly destroyed from the early 90's to mid 2000s. I also hire Hal McRae in some capacity as well for the final cherry on top.

I present now, your 2010 Kansas City Royals

1B - Billy Butler / Kila Kaaihue

2B- Mike Aviles / Willie Bloomquist / Alberto Callaspo

SS - Adam Everett / Mike Aviles / Yuniesky Betancourt

3B - Adrian Beltre / Alex Gordon

DH - Alberto Callaspo

C - Brayan Pena / JR House

LF - David Dejesus

CF - Coco Crisp / Josh Anderson / Mitch Maier

RF - Alex Gordon

SP - Zack Greinke

SP - Gil Meche

SP - Randy Wolf

SP - Luke Hochevar

SP - Brian Bannister

RH RP - Joakim Soria, Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa, Chris Hayes

LH RP - John Bale, Lenny DiNardo

Fearless prediction with this team in 2010

86-76